Q1—Q3 Recovery Backed By Online Sales

蘇珊

Chinas consumption market saw steady recovery in the first three quarters， with online sales driving growth and providing economic momentum.

In the January-September period， the contribution of consumption to economic growth reached 41.3 percent， driving GDP growth by 1.2 percentage points. In the third quarter， Chinas final consumption expenditure contributed 52.4 percent to economic growth， driving GDP growth by 2.1 percentage points， the National Bureau of Statistics said on October 24.

In the first nine months， online sales nationwide increased steadily and reached 9.59 trillion yuan， up 4 percent year-on-year. Among them， online retail sales of physical goods reached 8.24 trillion yuan， up 6.1 percent year-onyear， the NBS said.

“E-commerce has further demonstrated its role in driving consumption growth. Retail business at brick-and-mortar stores has also gradually improved， and sales of basic living goods have seen booming growth. In addition， demand for green consumption has continued to grow， and sales in rural markets recovered well，”said Dong Lihua， director of the Trade and Economic Department at the NBS.

“In the first three quarters， all departments effectively coordinated COVID- 19 pandemic prevention and control measures along with economic and social development. They actively implemented a series of consumption promotion policies， and the consumer market maintained a recovery trend，”Dong said.

Despite sporadic resurgences of COVID-19 cases， the consumption market has recovered， albeit with fluctuations. In April， the level of total retail sales of consumer goods reached a low point， and it began to grow again since June. In September， the number increased by 2.5 percent year-onyear， which was 2.9 percentage points lower than the growth rate inAugust， the NBS said.

In the January-September period， total retail sales of consumer goods totaled 32.03 trillion yuan， up 0.7 percent year-on-year， reversing the downward trend in the first half， when the number fell 0.7 percent year-on-year， the NBS said.

In the second quarter， the pandemic caused some restrictions on household consumption of goods and services， but the negative impact weakened in the third quarter. Meanwhile， the state of employment improved in the third quarter， enhancing consumer confidence， said Wang Qing， chief macroeconomic analyst at Golden Credit Rating International.

In addition， from June 1， the government has halved car purchase taxes for passenger vehicles that cost less than 300，000 yuan each and have engine capacities of two liters or lower. The stimulus measure has taken effect and spurred consumption， Wang said.

With the upcoming Singles Day shopping festival culminating on Nov 11， e-commerce shopping is expected to further drive consumption growth.

“Due to the pandemic， e-commerce shopping through channels such as livestreaming sessions and group purchases have served as important platforms， and online shopping has become a new engine to drive consumption growth，”said Hou Yunchun， president of the China Enterprise EvaluationAssociation.

中國前三季度消費市場穩(wěn)步復(fù)蘇，線上消費推動增長，為經(jīng)濟提供動力。

國家統(tǒng)計局10月24日公布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，前三季度，最終消費支出對經(jīng)濟增長貢獻(xiàn)率為41.3%，拉動GDP增長1.2個百分點。其中，三季度最終消費支出對經(jīng)濟增長貢獻(xiàn)率為52.4%，拉動GDP增長2.1個百分點。

統(tǒng)計局?jǐn)?shù)據(jù)顯示，1至9月份，全國網(wǎng)上零售額穩(wěn)步增長，達(dá)到近9.59萬億元，同比增長4.0%。其中，實物商品網(wǎng)上零售額8.24萬億元，增長6.1%。

國家統(tǒng)計局貿(mào)易外經(jīng)司司長董禮華發(fā)文稱，線上消費對消費市場的拉動作用進(jìn)一步顯現(xiàn)，實體零售逐步改善，基本生活類商品銷售增勢良好，綠色升級類消費需求持續(xù)釋放，鄉(xiāng)村市場銷售恢復(fù)較好。

董禮華表示，前三季度，各地區(qū)各部門高效統(tǒng)籌疫情防控和經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展，積極推動一系列促消費政策落地顯效，消費市場總體保持恢復(fù)增長態(tài)勢。

今年以來，受疫情多點散發(fā)影響，消費市場在波動中恢復(fù)。4月份消費市場降至低點，6月份后恢復(fù)增長。9月份，社會消費品零售總額同比增長2.5%，增速比8月份回落2.9個百分點。

前三季度，社會消費品零售總額32.03萬億元，同比增長0.7%。今年上半年，社會消費品零售總額同比下降0.7%。

東方金誠國際信用評估有限公司首席宏觀分析師王青表示，今年第二季度，新冠疫情對家庭商品和服務(wù)消費造成了一些限制，但這種負(fù)面影響在第三季度有所減弱。與此同時，第三季度就業(yè)狀況有所改善，增強了消費者的信心。

王青表示，政府對購置日期在2022年6月1日至2022年12月31日期間內(nèi)且單車價格（不含增值稅）不超過30萬元的2.0升及以下排量乘用車，減半征收車輛購置稅。這種刺激措施已經(jīng)見效，刺激了汽車消費。

隨著即將到來的雙十一購物節(jié)在11月11日達(dá)到高潮，線上消費有望進(jìn)一步推動消費增長。

中國企業(yè)評價協(xié)會會長侯云春說：“受新冠疫情影響，通過直播、團(tuán)購等渠道的電商購物成為重要平臺，網(wǎng)絡(luò)銷售已成為推動經(jīng)濟增長的新引擎?！?/p>