英文摘要

Chinas Positioning and Response in a World in Flux

YANG Jiemian

ABSTRACT： Despite a trend toward general stability between major powers， uncertainty and unpredictability are on the rise. The implementation of the Trump administrations “America First” policy has brought about fundamental changes in great power relations， for example， growing strategic competition. Issues of international security and military development have become prominent. The world economy is facing downward pressure after reaching a cyclic high point. Trade protectionism and economic unilateralism on the part of the United States under the leadership of President Trump present major challenges for effective global economic governance. The fluctuations on the U.S. financial market may create ripple effects around the world. The trajectory of China-U.S. trade relations will exert a huge， systemic impact on the world economy. On the other hand， the world is on the threshold of another round of major breakthroughs in science and technology which are expected to have a major influence on the global economy and international relations. Under such an influence the global landscape of industrial development and business models may take a whole new look in the next decades. As a result， great power competitions will increasingly revolve around industrial norm-setting and standard-making. Science and technology will certainly become a major battleground of great power competition and be prioritized as an important dimension of comprehensive national power. In a time when China is increasingly connected with the rest of the world， high hopes are placed on China as a great power with greater international responsibility. China has to recalibrate its position according to the latest geopolitical and geoeconomic developments to better respond to various predictable and unpredictable challenges.

KEYWORDS： major power relations， international environment， world economy， technological innovation， Chinas positioning

Upholding a Free， Multilateral Trading System by Promoting Effective WTO Reforms

Liam Fox

ABSTRACT： Free trade spurs innovation and helps foster a sense of mutual security. The rules-based trading system underpinned by the World Trade Organization has driven down tariffs and brought great benefits both to developed and developing economies， but recently the imposition of unilateral and retaliatory tariff barriers has introduced new friction into the trading system. The UK has a clear， unambiguous position—that free， fair， and open trade is the best means of raising global prosperity. Britains exit from the European Union is not a retreat into isolationism. In fact， it is quite the opposite—Britain will be able to fashion our own independent trade policy for the first time in more than four decades. What we will be is a truly “Global Britain.” Fundamental changes in the global economy have occurred which simply didnt exist when the Uruguay round concluded. Complex global value chains and trade in inputs stretch across multiple national borders and the use of imported intermediate goods and services has become dramatically more important for global exports. However， the barriers to trade in services are around as large as those in goods half a century ago. Reforms will only become more vital as the interdependence of the global economy increases. While making concerted efforts to reform and strengthen WTO mechanism to meet a wide array of challenges， we must also focus on implementation and enforcement by ensuring the dispute settlement mechanism is fit for the future.

KEYWORDS： free trade， multilateral trading system， WTO reforms， globalization， service trade barriers， protectionism

Modernizing the WTO： Global Value Chains and the Multilateral Trading System

CHEN Liang and HUANG Peng

ABSTRACT： Multilateral trade negotiations have stalled after the Doha Round broke down. Ineffectual dispute settlement mechanisms have made an increasing number of economies resort to trade protectionism. Even as some fear that the WTO might become irrelevant if it cannot be reformed， members have begun to reexamine the problems inherent in WTO mechanisms and proposed modernization reforms. From the perspective of economic globalization， the root cause of the current systemic failure of the multilateral trading system lies in the growing gap between the multilateral trade-rules system and the expansion of its economic foundation， i.e.， global value chains. As a result， the world is moving toward greater trade regionalism when traditional institutions are increasingly marginalized. Efforts to modernize the WTO should involve redefining the functions of multilateral trade institutions， increasing their resilience， improving the effectiveness of disputes settlement mechanisms， strengthening the role of the secretariat， and launching “open plurilateral” negotiations. Moreover， WTO modernization must unfold in the context of world economic rebalance， keeping pace with the expansion of global value chains. Structural adjustment among major members is required to strike a balance between multilateralism and regionalism. Cooperation and coordination with major economic institutions like the Group of Twenty are also indispensable to withstanding the shocking waves resulting from growing U.S. unilateralism.

KEYWORDS： WTO reforms， economic globalization， global value chains， world economic rebalance

Forty Years of Win-Win China-U.S. Cooperation： Review and Outlook

TAO Wenzhao

ABSTRACT： In the past four decades since the normalization of bilateral relations there have been disputes and frictions between China and the United States， but common interests far outweigh differences. Entering the new century， China-U.S. cooperation has played a more prominent role in effective global governance. Win-win cooperation has been the defining feature of the Sino-American relationship. Both countries have benefited enormously from healthy and stable interactions， and at the same time contributed to peace， stability， and prosperity of the whole world. From Beijings perspective， a generally peaceful international environment favorable to spectacular economic growth， bilateral consensus against Taiwan independence in any form， and increasing cultural and people-to-people exchanges are the principal benefits China derived from a stable Sino-American relationship. From Washingtons perspective， concerted efforts to combat terrorism and climate change and prevent the spread of weapons of mass destruction， the huge China market， and closer intercultural interactions also benefit the United States. The designation of China as a revisionist power and strategic competitor in the latest National Security Strategy and National Defense Strategy， and the recent trade dispute are clear indications of a major shift in U.S. China policy. Although China-U.S. relations have entered a period of strategic transformation， the two powers are not engaged in a new cold war. In the face of great geopolitical and geoeconomic uncertainties， it is still possible to promote a generally peaceful bilateral relationship so long as Beijing can maintain its strategic perseverance， ease frictions and manage competition or even confrontation， and magnify positive factors in bilateral ties.

KEYWORDS： China-U.S. relations， win-win cooperation， interdependence， strategic transformation

Institutional Changes in U.S. National Security Review of Foreign Investment and Their Impacts on China

LI Wei and ZHAO Li

ABSTRACT： Since entering office， guided by the “American First” principle， the Trump administration has adopted a series of protectionist policy measures， for example， tightening the scrutiny of foreign investment in the United States out of national security concerns. In 2018， the federal government has completed the legislative procedures on stricter enforcement of foreign investment scrutiny—a major institutional reform. More stringent foreign investment scrutiny poses higher barriers to potential and existing Chinese investments in America. As Chinas economic continues to grow， complementarity in China-U.S. economic ties has given way to growing competition as manifested in newly imposed investment and tariff restrictions. U.S. protectionism and unilateralism have undermined the role of China-U.S. economic ties as the ballast in the overall bilateral relationship. In the context， both the Chinese government and enterprises need to closely follow the latest changes in investment security scrutiny and come up with appropriate measures in order to better protect Chinese investment interests.

KEYWORDS： Chinese investment， CFIUS， national security review， protectionism， strategic competition

The Power Position， Identity Orientation， and the Evolution of Sino-U.S. Relations

YE Xiaodi and WU Lingxiang

ABSTRACT： The relationship between the United States and China has come to a historical crossroads when Washington and Beijing marks the 40th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations and at the same time the Trump administration is turning more hostile toward China. The common shortcoming regarding the existing theories that have predicted four different eventualities for the bilateral relationship， namely， conflict， cooperation， uncertainty， and cooperation-competition nexus， is their narrow focus on only one factor， thus failing to fully understand the multiple dimensions of the U.S.-China dynamics. This article tries to apply two independent variables—power position and identity orientation—to construct an explanatory model to elaborate the non-linear relational property in Sino-U.S. relations. This article further recommend that China create the cooperation basis and incentive for the United State to alleviate the growing strategic pressure on China. Chinas foreign policy should adhere to two fundamental points： domestic sustained economic growth and an articulate foreign policy， which may be help increase exchanges of interests with the Trump administration.

KEYWORDS： power position， identity orientation， Sino-U.S. relations， Chinese foreign policy

Global Energy Governance： an Analysis from the Political Economy Perspective

FANG Tingting

ABSTRACT： The goal of global energy governance is to address global energy challenges. However， there still lacks a consensus on the definition of global energy challenges. Existing research on global energy governance mainly focuses on who should fix these problems， ignoring what should be controlled and how to control them. Applying cognitive frameworks （market liberalism， neomercantilism， environmentalism， and social greens） from the perspective of international political economy， the author proposes that there are at least five main targets in global governance： security of energy supply and demand， energy access， international security， environmental sustainability， and energy equality. On this basis， this article analyzes different paths to achieve these goals and evaluates the differences between goals of current major global energy governance mechanisms. At present， global energy governance has formed a network of multilevel governing subjects， with various goals and fragmented mechanisms. There is competition between not only various value goals like economic efficiency， energy independence， environmental protection， and energy equality， but also multiple interest groups including countries， international organizations， business enterprises， private associations， and so on. The author puts forward feasible policy options at the end of this article， advising China to actively participate in global energy governance and to seek reasonable development space and rights and interests.

KEYWORDS： global energy governance， energy security， governance goals， international cooperation， governance system

Chinas Overseas Evacuation： Models， Opportunities， and Challenges

XIANG Wenhui

ABSTRACT： Overseas evacuation， as the most typical direct means to protect overseas citizens， is not only the inevitable result of the expansion of a countrys overseas interests， but also the requirement for the extension of national security borders. This article starts from the dichotomy between high politics and low politics in the domain of international relations. Western countries generally put the security of overseas citizens in a relatively important strategic position of the overall interests of the country or the overall national security， thus choosing a rather slow low political priority model. On the contrary， China puts overseas citizen security at the same strategic level as military security and political security. Consequently， a responsive low political priority model is chosen. The two models have different characteristics in terms of actors， timings， costs， evacuation objects and locations， and assessment systems. From the perspectives of strategy， technology， diplomatic environment， and comprehensive strength， this article also answers the question of “to do or not to do，” “can or cannot，” and “how to implement” relating to overseas evacuation. China's overseas evacuation operations face a series of challenges in terms of diplomatic principles， diplomatic connotations， and diplomatic thinking. The key to successful Chinas overseas evacuation is to build China's new image in a new era， to maintain the independent foreign policy of peace， and at the same time， to actively promote overseas citizen protection. Moreover， we should stick to the principle that evacuation should be conducted only when overseas citizens encounter serious personal security threats. Drawing from the experience and lessons of Western powers， China should develop its own methods and practices.

KEYWORDS： overseas evacuation， model selection， opportunity， challenge， Chinese diplomacy， overseas citizen protection

China's Participation in Syrian Reconstruction： Motives， Challenges， and Approaches

ZHANG Xinping and DAI Jiawei

ABSTRACT： With the active involvement of the international community， Syria has won victories in the anti-terrorism battlefield in recent years. The domestic situation has begun to improve， and related issues concerning the reconstruction of Syria have been put on the agenda. Combining the general theory of national reconstruction and the actual situation in Syria， security reconstruction， political reconstruction， and economic reconstruction are the three key areas of the reconstruction effort. China's participation in Syrian reconstruction will help stabilize and restore the political and economic environment in Syria and the surrounding areas， presenting a positive image of China as a responsible great power and boosting China's international influence. It cannot be denied that participation in Syrian reconstruction will still face challenges such as geopolitical competition， domestic factional strife， extremist interference， and Syrias weak economic foundation. To promote a peaceful solution to the Syrian issue， China can start with humanitarian assistance， and focus on infrastructure investment and economic reconstruction， so as to facilitate the overall reconstruction process.

KEYWORD： post-disaster recovery， Syria， Chinese diplomacy， Belt and Road initiative