Should We Be Worried About Declining Birth Rates?我們應(yīng)該擔(dān)心人口出生率下降嗎？

The global population has been growing at a much slower pace than before and some countries’ populations have actually decreased. In 2023， the U.S. birth rate dropped to a record low of approximately 1.7 births per woman， according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

全球人口增長(zhǎng)速度比以前慢了許多，有些國(guó)家的人口實(shí)際上已經(jīng)有所減少。根據(jù)美國(guó)疾病控制與預(yù)防中心的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)，2023年美國(guó)的人口出生率降至歷史最低點(diǎn)，每位女性約生育1.7個(gè)孩子。

The required replacement rate for a population to be maintained is 2.1 children per woman， but many countries are no longer reaching that. South Korea currently has the lowest birth rate in the world， at just 0.72 children per woman. “What we are experiencing now， and have been experiencing for decades， is something that we have not seen before in human history， which is a large-scale， cross-national， cross-cultural shift towards preferring and having smaller families，” said Jennifer D. Sciubba， a demographer and the author of “8 Billion and Counting1： How Sex， Death， and Migration Shape Our World.”

要維持人口數(shù)量，所需的更替水平生育率為每位女性生育2.1個(gè)孩子，但許多國(guó)家已經(jīng)達(dá)不到這一水平。韓國(guó)目前是世界上人口出生率最低的國(guó)家，每位女性?xún)H生育0.72個(gè)孩子。“我們現(xiàn)在所經(jīng)歷的以及幾十年來(lái)一直在經(jīng)歷的，是人類(lèi)歷史上前所未有的大規(guī)模、跨國(guó)家、跨文化的轉(zhuǎn)變，即人們轉(zhuǎn)而偏向生育更少的孩子。”著有《80億人口——一個(gè)全球性重要議題：生育、死亡和移民如何塑造世界》的人口統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)家珍妮弗·D. 朔巴表示。

Some experts claim falling populations could be a positive development， while others worry about the future of an aging society. “Not having children， or having fewer children， is becoming more socially acceptable，” said Sarah Hayford， the director of the Institute for Population Research at the Ohio State University. “As a result， people are weighing more carefully the decision to have children.”

一些專(zhuān)家聲稱(chēng)人口下降可能是個(gè)積極的發(fā)展趨勢(shì)，而另一些專(zhuān)家則擔(dān)心老齡化社會(huì)的未來(lái)。俄亥俄州立大學(xué)人口研究所所長(zhǎng)莎拉·海福德表示：“不生孩子或少生孩子越來(lái)越為社會(huì)所接受。因此，人們會(huì)更加慎重地決定是否生孩子?！?/p>

The future is feeble

未來(lái)脆弱不堪

A declining population could spell particular trouble for older generations. “People are living longer， so populations as a whole have fewer people of working age who can provide for older people and others who are economically inactive，” said New Scientist. This problem has become even more significant in the past few years. “Since the pandemic， labor shortages have become endemic throughout developed countries，” said The Wall Street Journal. “That will only worsen in coming years as the postcrisis fall in birthrates yields an ever-shrinking inflow of young workers， placing more strain on healthcare and retirement systems.”

人口下降可能尤其會(huì)給老年人帶來(lái)麻煩?！缎驴茖W(xué)家》雜志稱(chēng)：“人們的壽命更長(zhǎng)了，因此整體人口中能夠供養(yǎng)老年人和其他非經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)人群的勞動(dòng)年齡人口更少了?！边@個(gè)問(wèn)題在過(guò)去幾年里變得更加嚴(yán)重?！耙咔檫^(guò)后，發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家普遍出現(xiàn)勞動(dòng)力短缺現(xiàn)象。”《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》表示，“未來(lái)多年，隨著后疫情時(shí)代出生率下降導(dǎo)致年輕勞動(dòng)力的流入不斷減少，問(wèn)題只會(huì)加劇，醫(yī)療保健和退休體制將面臨更大的壓力?！?/p>

U.S. systems like Medicare and Social Security， which rely on the contributions of younger generations， will be affected by the population decline. “As life expectancy increases it becomes increasingly difficult to afford ever longer retirements，” said the BBC. “Something has to give， and working longer is the obvious solution.” There have even been discussions about raising the U.S. retirement age from 65 to as old as 70.

美國(guó)的老年人醫(yī)療保險(xiǎn)和社會(huì)保障等制度依賴(lài)年輕人的貢獻(xiàn)，因此將受到人口下降的影響?！半S著預(yù)期壽命的增加，人們退休后的日子越來(lái)越長(zhǎng)，但負(fù)擔(dān)也越來(lái)越重?！庇?guó)廣播公司表示，“必須有所取舍，延長(zhǎng)工作年限顯然是解決方案?！鄙踔劣腥擞懻搶⒚绹?guó)的退休年齡從65歲提高到70歲。

The changing population can also drastically alter the demographics of the nation. “America’s population is growing at about the same rate as those of Britain and France，” said The Economist. “But America is different from Britain or France in that its population is much more prone to move around the country. Some parts of America are extraordinarily successful at attracting new people.” This is problematic because “once a place starts shrinking， it can set in motion reinforcing cycles that accelerate the decline.” For example， “when there is far more housing available than people to fill it， the result tends to be a collapse in the value of homes.”

一個(gè)國(guó)家人口數(shù)量的變化也會(huì)導(dǎo)致人口結(jié)構(gòu)的劇變?！懊绹?guó)人口的增長(zhǎng)速度與英國(guó)和法國(guó)大致相同?！薄督?jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人》報(bào)道，“但美國(guó)與英國(guó)或法國(guó)的不同之處在于，其人口在全國(guó)范圍內(nèi)流動(dòng)的傾向要明顯得多。美國(guó)一些地區(qū)在吸引外來(lái)人口方面非常成功?！边@會(huì)帶來(lái)問(wèn)題，因?yàn)椤耙坏┠车亻_(kāi)始萎縮，就會(huì)啟動(dòng)強(qiáng)化循環(huán)，加速該地的衰退”。例如，“可供居住的房子遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)多于居住人口時(shí)，結(jié)果往往是房?jī)r(jià)崩盤(pán)?！?/p>

No worries here

不必多慮

Despite the apparent negatives of an aging population， there are also benefits. To begin with， this is the result of “people living healthier and longer lives，” and it will result in “reduced needs for infrastructure and lower ecological impacts2，” said conservation biologist Kirsten Stade in an opinion piece for Newsweek. A growing population is more taxing on the environment， requiring more resources and electricity. “Providing even ‘green’ energy for 8 billion and counting will have ecological impacts that are seldom discussed，” Stade added.

盡管人口老齡化的負(fù)面影響顯而易見(jiàn)，但也有好處。首先，正如保護(hù)生物學(xué)家柯?tīng)査闺に顾略凇缎侣勚芸返囊黄^點(diǎn)性文章中所說(shuō)，人口老齡化是“人們活得更健康、更長(zhǎng)壽”的結(jié)果，進(jìn)而會(huì)“減少對(duì)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的需求，降低對(duì)生態(tài)的沖擊”。不斷增長(zhǎng)的人口給環(huán)境帶來(lái)的壓力更大，因?yàn)闀?huì)需要更多的資源和電力供應(yīng)?！凹幢闶菫?0多億人提供‘綠色’能源，也會(huì)對(duì)生態(tài)產(chǎn)生沖擊，但人們很少討論這種影響?！彼顾卵a(bǔ)充道。

People who are concerned over population declines may also fail to consider whether having more children is actually good for society. “Have studies shown that women and couples are happier if they have more children？ Not to my knowledge，” said Monica Hesse in a perspective piece for The Washington Post. “In fact， many show the opposite： that although children may bring tremendous joy， they also bring tremendous stress to marriages.” Having and raising children is a large responsibility that places a disproportionate3 burden on women.

擔(dān)心人口下降的人可能也沒(méi)有考慮過(guò)多生孩子是否真的對(duì)社會(huì)有益?！笆欠裼醒芯勘砻鞫嗌⒆訒?huì)讓女性或夫妻雙方更幸福？據(jù)我所知，沒(méi)有。”莫尼卡·赫西在《華盛頓郵報(bào)》的一篇觀點(diǎn)性文章中表示，“事實(shí)上，很多研究表明情況恰恰相反：盡管孩子可能會(huì)帶來(lái)巨大喜悅，但他們也給婚姻帶來(lái)巨大壓力。”生育和撫養(yǎng)孩子是一份重大的責(zé)任，給女性施加的負(fù)擔(dān)要比男性多得多。

There is also a bigger ethical question around dictating a required replacement rate in order to spur population growth. “There’s something that feels ugly around proclamations4 about what the population or the birth rate ‘should’ be，” said Kelsey Piper at Vox. “And there’s also something distasteful about viewing children instrumentally， about creating entire new human beings for the sake of some national project.”

為推動(dòng)人口增長(zhǎng)而規(guī)定必要的人口更替水平，其中存在一個(gè)更大的倫理問(wèn)題?！靶Q(chēng)人口或出生率‘應(yīng)該’是多少，讓人感覺(jué)有點(diǎn)不妥?！薄段挚怂埂冯s志的凱爾西·派珀說(shuō)，“而且，將孩子視為工具，為某些國(guó)家層面的項(xiàng)目創(chuàng)造新生兒也有點(diǎn)令人反感?！?/p>

（譯者單位：常州信息職業(yè)技術(shù)學(xué)院）