英文摘要

Abstracts

Beyond"Decoupling："Beijing’s"Dual"Circulation"Policy"in"a"Shifting"Global"Economic"Landscape

LIU"Hongzhong

Abstract："Since"the"United"States"launched"a"trade"war"against"China"in"2018，"China-U.S."relations"have"entered"a"phase"of"heightened"strategic"competition."In"response"to"U.S."containment"and"suppression，"China"has"been"working"to"establish"a"new"“dual"circulation”"development"model—shifting"its"economic"growth"engine"from"export"dependence"toward"domestic"demand."At"the"same"time，"Beijing"has"actively"expanded"cooperation"through"the"Belt"and"Road"Initiative，"deepened"regional"trade"agreements，"and"diversified"its"exports"and"outbound"investment"in"order"to"mitigate"external"pressures."While"this"strategy"has"produced"notable"gains，"it"has"also"triggered"increased"trade"friction"with"certain"countries."Trade"imbalances—driven"by"asymmetric"economic"dependence，"power"rivalry，"and"domestic"political"dynamics—can"easily"give"rise"to"tension"or"conflict."The"U.S."approach"to"strategic"competition"with"China"reflects"a"complex"interplay"of"economic，"political，"and"security"considerations."In"turn，"China’s"strategic"adjustments"in"response"to"U.S."pressure"have"widened"its"trade"surplus"with"partners"beyond"the"United"States，"contributing"to"further"friction."To"navigate"this"challenging"landscape，"China"should"continue"to"advance"the"dual"circulation"strategy"with"determination."This"includes"accelerating"the"shift"toward"domestic"demand，"unlocking"consumption"potential"through"income"redistribution"and"service"sector"upgrading，"and"promoting"a"more"balanced"development"of"imports"and"exports."Beijing"should"also"work"to"establish"a"more"open"and"interconnected"regional"economic"circle."Meanwhile，"it"can"adopt"a"strategy"akin"to"“encircling"the"cities"from"the"countryside”—that"is，"applying"indirect"pressure"on"the"United"States"by"strengthening"ties"with"Global"South"countries."Proactively"increasing"imports"from"the"United"States"could"also"serve"to"promote"a"gradual"“relinking”"of"the"two"economies.

Keywords："great"power"competition，"trade"imbalance，"dual"circulation，"China-U.S."relations，"open"economic"circle

Managing"Periodic"Fluctuation："Historical"Innovations"of"China’s"Sustainable"Ascent

ZHANG"Chun"and"WANG"Hailu

Abstract："As"strategic"competition"among"great"powers"intensifies，"pessimistic"forecasts"such"as"the"“China"Collapse”"narrative"have"increasingly"given"way"to"a"more"assertive"“Peak"China”"or"“Peaking"China”"narrative."Rooted"in"power"cycle"theory，"this"new"framing"highlights"the"strategic"risks"posed"by"a"significant"slowdown"in"China’s"growth—particularlynbsp;the"perceived"threat"that"China"might"adopt"mercantilist"policies"in"an"effort"to"reclaim"its"momentum."Aligned"with"the"realist"assumption"in"international"relations"that"rising"powers"are"inherently"more"dangerous，"the"“Peak/Peaking"China”"narrative"is"ultimately"flawed"for"three"fundamental"reasons."First，"it"fails"to"objectively"assess"Beijing’s"policy"efforts"the"lens"of"power"cycle"theory."Second，"it"offers"an"incomplete"evaluation"of"Beijing’s"decision-making"logic，"failing"to"look"beyond"the"constraints"of"that"same"theoretical"framework."Third，"it"misreads"the"historical"innovation"behind"China’s"approach，"particularly"its"vision"of"building"a"community"with"a"shared"future"for"humankind."Beijing"has"long"anticipated"the"potential"periodic"fluctuation"in"its"rise"and"has"proactively"initiated"a"transition"toward"high-quality"development."This"strategic"shift"emphasizes"both"the"vitality"of"domestic"development"and"the"importance"of"international"network"centrality，"reflecting"an"approach"suited"to"an"era"of"great-power"competition"short"of"war."By"adhering"to"a"path"of"peaceful"development"and"ensuring"that"the"international"community"shares"in"the"benefits"of"China’s"rise，"Beijing"seeks"to"transform"this"potential"periodic"fluctuation"into"a"new"starting"point"for"sustainable"ascent.

Keywords："rising"powers，"Peak/Peaking"China，"Chinese"modernization

Structural"Pressures，"Aspirational"Goals，"and"Emerging"Powers’"Differing"Strategies"for"Legitimization

QIN"Lizhi"and"TAN"Haoyu

Abstract："To"survive"and"ensure"their"security，"emerging"powers"often"seek"to"enhance"their"legitimacy"in"order"to"optimize"their"strategic"environment."The"paths"to"achieving"legitimacy"are"not"singular;"they"may"involve"efforts"to"uphold"the"existing"international"order"or"promote"feasible，"moderate"adjustments."From"the"perspective"of"neoclassical"realism，"legitimization"strategies"can"be"classified"typologically，"enabling"the"construction"of"a"broader"causal"framework."In"response"to"varying"systemic"pressures，"emerging"powers"develop"differentiated"strategic"goal"expectations，"which"in"turn"shape"their"choice"among"strategies"of"integration，"bridging，"competition，"or"subversion."The"non-linear"nature"of"both"strategic"tempo"and"outcomes"further"affects"the"alignment"between"goals"and"methods."Empirically，"this"analysis"traces"the"strategic"trajectories"of"Japan"in"the"1970s-1980s，"the"United"States"from"the"late"19th"century"to"the"1920s，"Japan"from"1868"to"the"1920s，"and"Germany"from"1933"to"1945."For"emerging"powers，"strategic"prudence"should"serve"as"the"logical"starting"point"when"forming"expectations"of"strategic"goals."They"must"account"for"the"spatio-temporal"variation"in"structural"pressures"during"the"legitimization"process，"avoid"rigid"or"doctrinaire"strategic"behaviors，"refrain"from"over-interpreting"an"opponent’s"concessions"as"a"sign"of"their"own"rising"strength，"and"guard"against"allowing"power"competition"to"override"core"security"interests.

Keywords："international"order，"power"transition，"legitimacy，"rise"of"great"powers

Self-Legitimation"of"International"Organizations："A"Case"Study"of"the"World"Health"Organization

JIN"Jiyong"and"MA"Wei

Abstract："The"self-legitimation"of"international"organizations"refers"to"the"process"by"which"they"maintain"or"enhance"their"legitimacy"by"asserting"autonomy."This"process"is"often"driven"by"factors"such"as"legitimacy"drift，"the"politicization"of"international"organizations"by"member"states"for"domestic"purposes，"and"concerns"over"organizational"survival"and"reputation."Self-legitimation"is"a"persistent"feature"in"the"functioning"of"international"organizations."As"agents"of"their"own"legitimacy，"these"organizations"engage"in"self-legitimation"primarily"through"constructing"legitimacy"narratives，"forming"issue-based"alliances，"and"reforming"international"norms."Since"the"1990s，"the"Worldnbsp;Health"Organization"has"faced"an"unprecedented"crisis"of"legitimacy."In"response，"it"has"pursued"self-legitimation"by"promoting"value-based"legitimacy"narratives，"building"global"health"partnerships，"and"reforming"global"health"governance"norms."These"efforts"have，"to"some"extent，"helped"bolster"its"legitimacy."However，"given"the"evolving"landscape"of"global"health"governance"and"the"resurgence"of"anti-globalization"sentiment，"the"WHO’s"self-legitimation"is"unlikely"to"remain"a"straightforward"or"unidirectional"process.

Keywords："international"organizations，"self-legitimation，"World"Health"Organization，"global"health"governance

International"Organization’s"Strategies"to"Major"Power’s"Withdrawals："A"Case"Study"of"UNESCO

ZHU"Jiejin"and"LIU"Yingchen

Abstract："In"an"era"of"global"upheaval，"the"withdrawal"of"major"powers"from"international"organizations"has"emerged"as"a"pervasive"challenge."The"United"Nations"Educational，"Scientific"and"Cultural"Organization"（UNESCO）"offers"a"revealing"case："confronted"twice"by"U.S."exits，"it"has"oscillated"between"adaptation"and"resistance."This"variation"begs"explanation."Drawing"on"resource"dependence"theory，"this"study"contends"that"two"factors—the"concentration"of"resources"an"organization"requires"and"the"degree"of"alignment"among"its"major"members—shape"its"ability"to"secure"alternatives"and，"thus，"its"strategic"response."In"1983，"as"the"Reagan"administration"withdrew，"UNESCO"faced"a"stark"reality："its"reliance"on"highly"concentrated"financial"and"professional"resources，"coupled"with"broad"alignment"between"other"key"powers"and"the"United"States，"left"little"room"for"substitution，"compelling"an"adaptive"stance."By"contrast，"in"2017，"when"the"Trump"administration"exited，"UNESCO’s"resource"needs"were"less"centralized，"and"major"powers"diverged"from"Washington's"position，"enabling"access"to"alternative"support"and"emboldening"a"resistive"approach."Unpacking"these"strategic"choices"and"their"underlying"logic"not"only"enriches"our"understanding"of"great-power"dynamics"within"international"institutions"but"also"offers"critical"insights"for"China"as"it"navigates"similar"withdrawals"by"other"states.

Keywords："great-power"withdrawal，"resource"concentration，"major-power"alignment，"UNESCO，"adaptive"strategy，"resistive"strategy

The"Dual"of"Strategic"Narratives："How"U.S."Policy"toward"China"Turned"Radical

WANG"Lianhe"and"MENG"Xiaoyu

Abstract："Since"Donald"Trump’s"ascent"to"power，"U.S."policy"toward"China"has"pivoted"from"engagement"to"competition—a"shift"that，"through"successive"Republican"and"Democratic"administrations，"has"hardened"into"an"increasingly"entrenched，"escalatory，"and"emotive"stance."This"radicalization，"cutting"through"America’s"political"polarization"to"forge"a"rarenbsp;bipartisan"consensus，"finds"a"compelling"explanation"in"the"lens"of"“strategic"narrative"competition.”"By"tracing"the"interplay"of"competing"narratives"between"the"two"major"U.S."parties"since"2010，"this"study"uncovers"a"causal"link"between"narrative"rivalry"and"policy"extremism."In"a"polarized"and"uncompromising"climate，"narrators—seeking"to"monopolize"the"strategic"function"of"their"accounts—engage"in"a"two-stage"contest："first，"a"“competition"between"strategic"narratives，”"where"a"dominant"narrative"consolidates"power"by"reinforcing"itself"and"sidelining"rival"perspectives;"then，"a"“competition"within"strategic"narratives，”"where"the"struggle"for"credibility"within"this"narrowed"framework"drives"foreign"policy"toward"ever"more"extreme"measures"to"fulfill"narrative"promises."This"dynamic"not"only"illuminates"the"solidification"of"America’s"confrontational"posture"toward"China"but"also"reveals"how"narrative"battles"shape"the"trajectory"of"superpower"rivalry.

Keywords："strategic"narratives，"narrative"competition，"policy"radicalization

The"Republican"Party’s"Immigration"Policy"Narrative"Since"2020："A"Study"of"Policy"Discourse"Formation"of"a"Polarized"Party

MU"Ruoxi"and"HU"Tong

Abstract："Since"2020，"the"Republican"Party"has"increasingly"embraced"an"extreme"narrative"on"immigration"policy，"a"shift"that"has"proven"pivotal"in"mobilizing"its"voter"base."This"trend"not"only"underscores"the"escalating"intensity"of"partisan"competition"but"also"illuminates"how"polarized"political"parties"leverage"policy"narratives"to"forge"ideological"cohesion，"galvanize"support，"and"mold"public"discourse."Defined"by"their"emotive"force"and"confrontational"tenor，"these"narratives"employ"targeted"rhetorical"strategies"to"sharpen"partisan"divides."At"their"core"lies"an"apocalyptic"vision，"casting"immigration"as"a"moral"battleground"between"good"and"evil，"conjuring"scenarios"of"existential"crisis，"and"deploying"a"modern"iteration"of"“dog-whistle”"rhetoric"to"craft"a"policy"discourse"that"is"both"emotionally"charged"and"ideologically"stark."This"narrative’s"rise"owes"much"to"the"rightward"drift"of"white"conservative"voters，"compounded"by"the"ambiguities"of"Democratic"immigration"policy"and"the"Republican"Party’s"internal"ideological"realignment."Beyond"entrenching"partisan"rifts"among"voters，"the"proliferation"of"this"rhetoric"has"deepened"societal"fractures，"steadily"undermining"the"prospects"for"political"consensus."Amplified"by"the"media，"magnified"across"social"networks，"and"reinforced"by"political"leaders，"its"reverberations"threaten"to"transcend"the"immigration"debate，"further"entrenching"the"polarized"contours"of"America’s"political"landscape.

Keywords："U.S."politics，"political"polarization，"immigration"policy

The"European"Green"Deal："Evaluation"and"Future"Prospects

YAN"Shuyang"and"YAN"Shuo

Abstract："Born"amid"the"twin"crises"of"global"financial"turmoil"and"escalating"climate"threats，"the"concept"of"a"“Green"New"Deal”"reflects"a"global"imperative"to"overhaul"unsustainable"development"models."The"European"Green"Deal"represents"the"European"Union’s"bold"response—a"strategic"pivot"to"transform"its"economic"paradigm，"reignite"growth，"address"societal"demands，"navigate"internal"crises，"and"reassert"its"global"influence"against"a"backdrop"of"intensifying"international"competition."Despite"severe"disruptions"from"the"Covid-19"pandemic"and"the"Russia-Ukraine"conflict，"which"have"fueled"skepticism"about"its"efficacy"and"viability，"empirical"evidence"underscores"the"EU’s"tangible"progress"in"advancing"its"green"transition."This"progress"highlights"the"Deal’s"institutional"resilience"and"adaptability."Yet，"as"global"economic"recovery"falters，"geopolitical"turbulence"deepens，"European"security"and"energy"stability"remain"precarious，"and"right-wing"political"currents"gain"traction，"the"Green"Deal’s"path"forward"is"fraught"with"challenges."While"the"EU"may"struggle"to"meet"its"ambitious"targets"on"schedule，"the"global"consensus"on"accelerating"green"transitions—now"a"defining"tide"of"our"era—ensures"that"the"Deal’s"strategic"course"will"hold"firm."The"EU’s"green"transformation"will"advance"through"iterative"adjustments"and"steady"refinement，"shaping"both"its"future"and"the"world’s.

Keywords："European"Green"Deal，"policy"drivers，"Early"Achievements，"Future"Prospects