英文摘要

Abstracts

Changing"Global"Middle"Class："Dynamic"and"Impact

YU"Xintian

Abstract："Since"the"start"of"the"21st"century，"the"global"middle"class"has"experienced"significant"changes"that"have"had"widespread"and"profound"effects."In"developed"countries，"the"middle"class"has"been"steadily"shrinking"amid"worsening"economic"and"social"conditions."This"decline"has"led"to"a"shift"toward"protectionism"and"xenophobia，"intensifying"a"trend"toward"right-wing"politics"and"complicating"the"geopolitical"landscape."Conversely，"the"middle"class"in"developing"countries"continues"to"grow，"contributing"more"to"the"global"economy"and"displaying"considerable"confidence."However，"the"rapid"pace"of"modernization"brings"both"diversity"and"complexity，"making"this"segment"vulnerable."These"shifts"have"fostered"globalization，"marketization，"and"a"diversification"of"cultural"values."Based"on"relatively"recent"historical"trends，"the"external"influence"of"an"expanding"global"middle"class"is"likely"to"follow"three"major"trends."First，"there"will"be"an"increasing"overlap"between"the"middle"classes"of"developed"and"developing"countries，"presenting"both"opportunities"for"cooperation"and"challenges"for"conflict."Second，"nationalism"is"emerging"as"the"dominant"ideology"among"the"middle"class，"driving"national"strategies"and"policy-making，"with"both"positive"and"negative"consequences."Third，"there"is"a"growing"divergence"in"how"the"global"middle"class"envisions"the"future."Domestic"and"international"perspectives"vary"significantly"across"countries，"making"it"difficult"to"reach"a"consensus"in"the"short"term."Long-term"dialogue，"communication，"and"cooperation"will"be"essential"for"finding"common"ground"and"avoiding"conflicts"and"risks"of"war.

Keywords："middle"class，"developed"countries，"developing"nations，"geopolitics

Trump"2.0："China"Policy"and"Ramifications

DIAO"Damin"and"XI"Qianhan

Abstract："The"return"of"Donald"Trump"has"sparked"intense"debate"about"its"potential"impact"on"U.S.-China"relations."Trump"and"his"foreign"policy"team—dominated"by"staunch"China"hawks—continue"to"prioritize"strategic"competition"with"Beijing."However，"nuanced"differences"emerge"in"their"approaches"to"various"issues，"including"trade，"technology，"military"security，"Taiwan，"human"rights，"climate"change，"andnbsp;drug"trafficking."Trump"himself"tends"to"frame"China"as"a"“competitor，”"focusing"primarily"on"trade."His"approach"emphasizes"measures"like"tariffs"to"address"economic"challenges"and"aligns"with"his"broader"“Make"America"Great"Again”"agenda."This"positions"him"within"the"“transactional”"or"“alternative"hawk”"faction."By"contrast，"his"foreign"policy"team"largely"views"China"as"an"“adversary，”"advocating"for"a"broader，"multi-pronged"strategy"to"contain"Beijing."This"“super-hawk”"faction"envisions"a"“new"Cold"War”"with"the"aim"of"achieving"a"swift"and"decisive"advantage."These"differences"likely"stem"from"the"distinct"personal"backgrounds"and"political"experiences"of"Trump"and"his"advisors."They"are"poised"to"influence"the"decision-making"dynamics"within"the"so-called"“assistant"team”"that"Trump"has"assembled."As"a"result，"while"trade"may"remain"the"central"focus"of"Trump’s"China"agenda，"other"issues"could"become"instrumental"in"advancing"this"priority."At"the"same"time，"there"is"a"real"risk"that"these"secondary"issues"could"escalate"independently，"overshadowing"the"trade"agenda"and"leading"to"a"more"adversarial"scenario"in"which"economic"cooperation"loses"its"strategic"importance.

Keywords："Trump"2.0，"China"policy，"Team"Trump，"trade，"U.S.-China"relations

American"Social-Cultural"Crisis"and"Its"Domestic"and"International"Political"Effects

PAN"Yaling

Abstract："The"relative"decline"of"American"hegemony"has"deep"roots"in"social"and"cultural"crises，"which"are"primarily"reflected"in"racial"conflicts"arising"from"demographic"shifts，"class"conflicts"triggered"by"economic"transition，"and"inter-generational"conflicts"exacerbated"by"technological"revolution."These"social-cultural"crises"are"transmitted"through"both"domestic"and"international"politics，"reinforcing"and"being"reinforced"by"the"security，"economic，"and"institutional"crises"the"United"States"has"faced"since"the"early"21st"century."Domestically，"the"American"social-cultural"crisis"has"three"main"political"effects："the"reshaping"of"electoral"geography"through"economic，"racial，"and"identity-based"（re）settlement"patterns;"the"intensification"of"confrontational"politics"due"to"multi-level"polarization"across"federal，"state，"and"party"lines;"and"the"erosion"of"national"identity"through"the"reconfiguration"of"（anti-）establishment"narratives，"national"discourse，"and"the"concept"of"American"exceptionalism."Internationally，"the"social-cultural"crisis"impacts"global"politics"through"four"channels："diplomatic"dissemination，"focused"on"anti-diplomacy;"market"transmission，"emphasizing"anti-globalization;"humanistic"transmission，"centered"on"migration"to"the"United"States;"and"ideological"transmission，"propelled"by"virtual"communities."During"his"second"term，"President"Donald"Trump"attempted"a"top-down"solution"to"the"social-cultural"crisis，"but"this"is"likely"to"exacerbate"“confrontational"politics”"rather"than"achieve"the"goal"of"“Making"America"Great"Again.”

Keywords："United"States，"social"culture，"political"polarization，"hegemonic"decline

From"Cold"War"to"Great"Power"Competition："The"U.S."Nuclear"Strategy"and"Nuclear"Deterrence

GE"Hanwen

Abstract："Since"their"advent，"nuclear"weapons"have"played"a"pivotal"role"in"the"evolution"of"international"politics."As"one"of"the"world’s"foremost"nuclear"powers，"the"United"States"has"long"relied"on"the"threat"of"nuclear"use"as"a"key"instrument"of"its"foreign"policy."During"the"Cold"War，"U.S."nuclear"strategy"shifted"from"an"emphasis"on"“preemptive”"nuclear"strikes"to"a"policy"centered"on"nuclear"deterrence."Following"the"Cold"War’s"conclusion"and"the"absence"of"a"clear"adversary，"the"United"States"continued"to"prioritize"nuclear"superiority"as"the"core"of"its"strategic"policy，"maintaining"the"centrality"of"nuclear"deterrence"in"its"national"security"framework."Entering"the"second"decade"of"the"21st"century，"driven"by"“hegemonic"anxiety”"amid"intensifying"great"power"competition，"the"United"States"has"elevated"the"strategic"significance"of"nuclear"weapons."It"has"introduced"the"concept"of"“integrated"deterrence，”"particularly"the"notion"of"“conventional-nuclear"integration，”"which"deliberately"blurs"the"line"between"nuclear"and"conventional"forces，"lowering"the"threshold"for"nuclear"use."This"approach"seeks"to"“deter”"both"potential"and"actual"challengers"while"securing"an"upper"hand"in"the"ongoing"competition"among"great"powers."For"the"foreseeable"future，"the"United"States"is"unlikely"to"abandon"its"policy"of"maintaining"nuclear"superiority"and"leveraging"it"as"a"central"tool"of"national"strategy."This"trajectory"poses"significant"challenges"to"global"strategic"stability"and"regional"security."Historical"experience"suggests"that"countering"U.S."nuclear"deterrence"requires"constructing"“assured"destruction”"capabilities"to"alter"its"policy"calculations."Only"through"such"measures"can"the"risks"of"nuclear"conflict"be"effectively"mitigated，"ultimately"fostering"“assured"cooperation”"among"nuclear-armed"states.

Keywords："United"States，"strategy，"nuclear"strategy，"deterrence，"great"power"competition

Can"New"Energy"Create"New"Politics？"An"Analysis"of"the"Geopolitical"Impact"of"Hydrogen

ZHANG"Rui

Abstract："Hydrogen"is"becoming"a"basic"energy"source"and"its"geopolitical"impact"is"increasingly"remarkable."The"mechanism"by"which"energy"affects"geopolitics"from"the"theoretical"perspective，"i.e.，"the"energy"strength，"energy"trade"and"energy"transportation"of"international"relations"actors"respectively"derive"political"power，"mutual"dependence，"and"channel"politics"at"the"geopolitical"level."The"geopolitical"impacts"of"hydrogen"energy"include"three"aspects."Firstly，"major"powers"arenbsp;prompted"to"build"power"through"technological"competition."Secondly，"hydrogen"trade"is"conducive"to"promoting"regional"integration，"but"it"consolidates"alliance"politics"and"leads"to"imbalanced"relations"in"which"importing"countries"dominate."Thirdly，"hydrogen"transportation"will"open"up"new"channels，"but"fierce"competition"among"countries"for"energy"channel"will"also"continue."Compared"with"fossil"fuels，"hydrogen"energy"can"create"a"series"of"new"geopolitical"effects."In"other"words，"technological"competition"among"countries"will"largely"replace"the"competition"for"resources，"the"potential"for"energy"cooperation"to"transcend"bloc"politics"has"fallen"sharply，"and"importing"countries"enjoy"more"structural"advantages"than"exporting"countries."China"needs"to"formulate"strategies"from"the"perspectives"of"industrial"economics"and"geopolitics"to"consolidate"the"strength"foundation"and"cooperation"network"of"new"energy"geopolitics.

Keywords："hydrogen，"geopolitics，"energy"transformation，"dependency

The"Community"of"Food"Security："A"New"Exploration"for"Global"Food"Security"Governance

ZHANG"Shuai

Abstract："In"the"interdependent"global"food"market，"the"food"security"situation"of"countries"and"the"world"are"closely"connected."The"global"governance"of"food"security"requires"the"cooperation"and"participation"of"international"actors，"breaking"through"the"shackles"of"food"nationalism，"and"jointly"creating"a"food"security"cooperation"mechanism."The"construction"of"community"for"food"security"is"one"of"the"effective"ways"to"solve"the"deficit"in"food"security"governance."The"core"connotation"of"community"for"food"security"is"reflected"in"three"aspects，"the"integration"of"climate"security"and"food"security，"the"coexistence"of"food"security"in"the"north"and"south，"and"the"symbiosis"of"human"security"and"food"security."It"highlights"the"characteristics"of"community"for"food"securitynbsp;in"three"dimensions，"nature，"area"and"human."From"the"perspective"of"the"system，"unit"and"their"interaction，"the"community"of"food"security"is"manifested"as"an"innovative"mechanism"to"promote"the"transformation"of"the"global"food"system，"a"practical"demand"to"achieve"food"justice"among"countries，"and"a"governance"thinking"to"coordinate"global"food"security"and"national"food"security."The"three"factors"constitute"the"driving"force"behind"building"a"community"of"food"security."In"the"global"food"system，"China"has"transformed"from"a"recipient"to"a"donor，"possessing"three"advantages"in"theory，"size，"and"role."It"is"advisable"to"promote"the"construction"of"a"community"for"food"security"under"the"development"logic"from"country"to"region"and"then"to"the"world"so"as"to"contribute"Chinese"solutions"to"global"food"security"governance.

Keywords："community"of"food"security，"food"security"governance，"food"system"transformation，"agricultural"sustainable"development

Exploring"a"New"Paradigm"for"Multilateral"Cooperation："Trans-Regional"Cooperation"in"Africa"and"China’s"Role

ZHOU"Yuyuan

Abstract："Trans-regional"cooperation"is"a"key"priority"for"Africa’s"development"and"regional"integration."Driven"by"factors"such"as"intensifying"great"power"competition，"increasing"regional"development"and"security"challenges，"and"urgent"concerns"over"energy"transitions"and"supply"chain"stability，"African"countries"are"accelerating"efforts"to"foster"trans-regional"cooperation."At"the"same"time，"external"actors"are"increasingly"focusing"on"engaging"with"Africa’s"trans-regional"cooperation."For"instance，"the"Lobito"Corridor"has"seen"significant"investments"from"the"United"States"and"Europe，"focusing"on"pivotal"countries，"critical"resources，"and"strategic"corridors."This"shift"represents"a"paradigm"change"in"U.S."and"European"policy"toward"Africa，"where"strategic"economic"and"trade"investments"now"take"precedence"over"traditional"development"aid."As"a"result，"geopolitical"and"geoeconomic"competition"over"key"development"corridors"in"Africa"is"intensifying."China"plays"a"central"role"in"Africa’s"trans-regional"cooperation"and"has"made"significant"contributions."Over"time，"China’s"involvement"in"Africa"has"evolved"from"bilateral"to"multilateral"and"regional"cooperation，"from"project-focused"collaboration"to"strategic"alignment，"and"from"engineering"construction"to"full-chain"participation."This"evolution"calls"for"the"development"of"a"new，"more"comprehensive"paradigm"for"China-Africa"multilateral"cooperation."The"2024"Beijing"Summit"of"the"Forum"on"China-Africa"Cooperation"outlined"plans"to"support"Africa’s"trans-regional"development，"establishing"a"China-Africa"network"with"land-sea"links"and"coordinated"development，"responding"directly"to"this"growing"demand."To"deepen"China-Africa"relations"and"ensure"the"high-quality"implementation"of"the"Belt"and"Road"Initiative，"both"China"and"Africa"should"leverage"this"summit"as"an"opportunity"to"explore"China’s"potential"in"Africa’s"trans-regional"cooperation，"strengthen"multilateral"coordination"and"continuously"enhance"the"level，"structure，"and"quality"of"their"cooperation.

Keywords："African"trans-regional"cooperation，"China-Africa"cooperation，"Belt"and"Road"Initiative，"infrastructure"connectivity，"multilateral"cooperation

Collective"Memory，"Strategic"Autonomy，"and"the"Continuation"of"Hedging"of"Southeast"Asia"Countries："A"Comparative"Analysis"of"the"Philippines，"Vietnam，"and"Indonesia

CHEN"Fei"and"YANG"Jining

Abstract："Hedging"is"a"strategic"tool"for"Southeast"Asian"countries"to"balance"risks"and"opportunities"in"anbsp;highly"complex"and"uncertain"strategic"environment."With"the"continued"rise"of"China"and"the"intensifying"competition"between"China"and"the"United"States，"the"hedging"space"for"Southeast"Asian"countries"is"gradually"shrinking."Contrary"to"the"theoretical"presupposition"of"Structural"Realism，"Southeast"Asian"countries"did"not"uniformly"abandon"or"continue"hedging"in"unison"in"response"to"systemic"pressures."Based"on"the"theoretical"perspective"of"neoclassical"realism，"the"continuation"of"hedging"strategies"in"Southeast"Asian"countries"depends"on"the"nature"of"the"strategic"environment"and"the"characteristics"of"domestic"politics."At"the"domestic"political"level，"collective"memory"and"strategic"autonomy"determine"the"perception"of"threats"and"the"hedging"capacity"of"Southeast"Asian"countries."The"analysis"reveals"that"the"symmetry"of"Southeast"Asian"countries’"threat"perceptions"vis-à-vis"China"and"the"United"States"directly"determines"whether"they"have"incentives"to"continue"their"hedging"strategies，"while"the"strength"of"their"hedging"capacity"supports"or"hinders"the"continuation"of"hedging"in"practice."By"tracing"the"domestic"characteristics"and"trajectory"of"hedging"strategies"in"three"Southeast"Asian"countries"（the"Philippines，"Vietnam"and"Indonesia），"the"continuation"logic"of"hedging"in"Southeast"Asia"is"largely"validated.

Keywords："Southeast"Asia，"hedging"strategy，"neoclassical"realism，"collective"memory，"strategic"autonomy