Stable Growth Of Foreign Trade Expected

楊曉飛

Chinas foreign trade is expected to post stable growth this year，despite unprecedented challenges，including high raw material costs and fierce competition from Southeast Asian countries， analysts and trade experts said.

The profitability of exporters in most sectors has improved during the second quarter，according to a survey by the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade in Beijing. Major challenges facing foreign trade enterprises，such as high costs of logistics，have eased，the survey showed.

“It is worth noting that trade data got better not only from quarter to quarter，but also from month to month during the second quarter. June is likely to have witnessed a strong foreign trade rebound and more energetic economic recovery，”said Liu Ying，a researcher at the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China.

The survey showed more than 25 percent of enterprises registered positive quarter- on- quarter revenue growth，while nearly 20 percent said they have secured profit growth from a quarter ago.

More than 26 percent of the respondents are confident about year-on-year revenue growth，and about 28 percent said they expect their revenues to be at least the same as last years level.

Liu predicted that Chinas foreign trade is likely to exceed 40 trillion yuan （ $5.97 trillion） this year，with policy measures showing off the advantages of the nations resilient supply and industrial chains.

分析師和貿(mào)易專(zhuān)家稱(chēng)，盡管面臨史 無(wú)前例的挑戰(zhàn)，包括原材料價(jià)格高和來(lái) 自東南亞國(guó)家的激烈競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，中國(guó)外貿(mào)今 年有望實(shí)現(xiàn)穩(wěn)定增長(zhǎng)。

中國(guó)國(guó)際貿(mào)易促進(jìn)委員會(huì)的一項(xiàng)調(diào) 查顯示，今年二季度大部分行業(yè)出口利 潤(rùn)情況比一季度好轉(zhuǎn)，物流成本高等外 貿(mào)企業(yè)面臨的主要問(wèn)題有所改善。

中國(guó)人民大學(xué)重陽(yáng)金融研究院研究 員劉英指出，值得注意的是外貿(mào)數(shù)據(jù)不 只是相對(duì)上季度有所好轉(zhuǎn)，而且二季度 的每個(gè)月的數(shù)據(jù)都比前一月更好。6月 可能將出現(xiàn)對(duì)外貿(mào)易的強(qiáng)勁反彈和更有 力的經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇。

調(diào)查顯示，25.43%的企業(yè)貿(mào)易額環(huán) 比增長(zhǎng)，19.98%的企業(yè)利潤(rùn)環(huán)比增加。

26.22%的企業(yè)預(yù)計(jì)全年貿(mào)易額實(shí)現(xiàn) 增長(zhǎng)，28.17%的企業(yè)認(rèn)為至少與去年持 平。

劉英預(yù)計(jì)，在有利于發(fā)揮中國(guó)供應(yīng) 鏈產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈韌性?xún)?yōu)勢(shì)的政策措施支持下， 今年中國(guó)外貿(mào)額有望突破40萬(wàn)億元。

The exporters also benefited from the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership agreement，which took effect on Jan 1，and interest rate increases by the United States，which Liu believes will facilitate Chinas exports.

The survey found that new trade formats such as cross-border ecommerce provided strong support to export growth，and the nations policies to ease the burdens of foreign trade enterprises，such as ensuring smooth logistics and speeding up tax and fee reductions， have boosted the sector as well.

More than 40 percent of enterprises in the survey said they have become familiar with RCEP rules，up 17.69 percentage points from the first quarter. About 54 percent plan to use those rules for their benefit.

The China Council for the Promotion of International Trade has also issued 43，600 RCEP certificates of origin for more than 10，000 enterprises.

Zhao Shengmei，general manager of Newcom Group，a bag and travel luggage manufacturer in Pinghu，Zhejiang province，said the company currently is recruiting more workers as orders in the first half of 2022 have already reached the whole-year level of 2021

A report released on June 29 by the Peoples Bank of China， the nations central bank，showed that the export order index came in at 41 percent in the second quarter，down 9.6 percentage points from the same period in 2021. The figure increased by just 0.1 percentage points from the first quarter of the year.

Liu Xiangdong，a researcher at the China Center for International Economic Exchanges，said Vietnams fast export growth will not threaten Chinas position in the global supply chain in the short term due to their closely integrated industrial chains.

He said China must enhance the resilience of the industrial chain and work with neighboring countries to mitigate risks and boost export volume in high-end manufacturing.

劉英認(rèn)為，1月1日生效的《區(qū)域全 面經(jīng)濟(jì)伙伴關(guān)系協(xié)定》（RCEP）也讓出 口商從中受益，美國(guó)利率的上調(diào)對(duì)中國(guó) 出口也會(huì)起到促進(jìn)作用。

調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn)，跨境電商等貿(mào)易新業(yè)態(tài) 對(duì)出口增長(zhǎng)提供了強(qiáng)有力的支持，國(guó)家 減輕外貿(mào)企業(yè)負(fù)擔(dān)的政策，比如確保物 流暢通和加速落實(shí)減稅降費(fèi)，也促進(jìn)了 外貿(mào)行業(yè)的發(fā)展。

調(diào)查涵蓋的企業(yè)中超 40%表示熟 悉 RCEP 規(guī)則，比一季度上升了 17.69 個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。約 54%的企業(yè)計(jì)劃運(yùn)用 RCEP規(guī)則為自己的利益服務(wù)。

中國(guó)貿(mào)促會(huì)還簽發(fā)了 RCEP 原產(chǎn) 地證書(shū) 43600 份，辦證企業(yè)累計(jì)超過(guò) 1 萬(wàn)家。

浙江平湖箱包生產(chǎn)商新秀集團(tuán)的 總經(jīng)理趙勝梅表示，該公司目前正在招 聘更多員工，因?yàn)?022年上半年的訂單 量已經(jīng)達(dá)到了2021年全年的水平。

中國(guó)人民銀行 6 月 29 日發(fā)布的報(bào) 告顯示，我國(guó)二季度的出口訂單指數(shù)為 41%，相比 2021 年同期下降了 9.6 個(gè)百 分點(diǎn)，只比一季度上升0.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。

中國(guó)國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)交流中心研究員劉 向東表示，越南出口的快速增長(zhǎng)短期內(nèi) 不會(huì)威脅到中國(guó)在全球供應(yīng)鏈中的地 位，因?yàn)槎叩漠a(chǎn)業(yè)鏈?zhǔn)蔷o密結(jié)合在一 起的。

劉向東表示，中國(guó)必須增強(qiáng)產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈 韌性，通過(guò)與鄰國(guó)合作來(lái)化解風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，提 高高端制造業(yè)的出口量。