大數據來襲

Every time you switch on your phone， make a call， search for a location on your phone’s map app or purchase a product online， you are leaving behind valuable bits of data.

All of this information that determines your habits is floating around on servers across the world， part of a new trend called big data. The two words seem simple enough， but few understand its implications.

From social networks， mobile devices and even embedded sensor chips in fridges and cars， we have so far produced about 2.7 zettabytes1） （the seventh power2） of 1000 bytes） of data， the equivalent of 36 million HD videos， and that is set to grow 40～45 per cent on an annual basis.

According to research from Ericsson3）， people will be using 15 times more data by 2017 than they do today. There will be 3 billion smartphone subscriptions， 5 billion mobile broadband subscriptions and 9 billion mobile subscriptions. By 2020 there will be 50 billion connected devices worldwide. Each of these devices will be generating data.

So far， deciphering all this data has not been an easy task. There are data scientists whose job is to create the tools to mine through the deposits of information. These tools are now becoming sophisticated enough that they not only track your habits， but can predict them as well.

“We are experiencing a very interesting era now， where we see that data is coming upon us from various sources. It is no longer just customer data stored in databases within enterprises generated through business systems，” says Ahmed Auda， the business unit executive for IBM’s software group in the Middle East.

Our smartphones are now containing more and more personal information. From banking transactions to medical records， our daily lives are being condensed on to single devices.

While we may think it belongs to us， there are others who have access to it and this data is valuable to many companies who are trying to better understand consumer habits.

“Knowing a customer’s location， background， the places they like to go to， the times they go to work or lunch will help organizations personalize their services in a better way，” says Mr. Auda.

More and more of this data is considered unstructured. It is coming from PDF files， emails， audio files and “l(fā)ikes” on Facebook， shares on YouTube and so on. There is a growing demand and an awareness among clients and organizations， both big and small， of the importance of data and being able to benefit from it to generate stronger business insight and ultimately to transform that into a competitive advantage.

Based on your choices and habits， the algorithms in big data tools aim to predict what choices you will make and what you will do.

They have the ability to completely redefine the way business is conducted. Why should a store offer half-price sales in order to attract as many customers when it can reliably offer the discounts to customers it knows will only come in when there is an offer？ Other customers， who historically have been willing to pay full price， can continue to do so.

But it is not just in the field of retail where big data can play a role.

One insurance company in Florida is using social media during major disasters to determine which customers to address first.

Security First Insurance is using a software from IBM that analyzes messages sent via email and social media using text mining4） tools， analytics and natural language processing to pick up on5） words that express distress or convey significant damage to a client’s property.

When the bird flu epidemic took off a couple of years ago， countries across the world took what precautions they could to prevent the disease from entering their borders. But monitoring the spread of disease and preventing it could become far more accurate in the future.

“You have tweets like， ‘I just landed in New Delhi，’ the thinly veiled6） show-off tweets where people are trying to impress us with where they’re travelling to. I call it ‘rich person vanity，’” said Jer Thorp， the co-founder of the Office for Creative Research， while addressing an audience at the EMC conference7） in Las Vegas recently.

“I know where they’re going to because they’re tweeting it and I know where they’re from because it is in their profile. Maybe if we watch Twitter closely we can build an almost live model of human travel， which can be used if there is an outbreak of an epidemic human disease.”

Creating such a tool is simple enough and with tweets being in the public domain， there are no barriers to using and extracting this data.

Imagine how much more accurate such a tool would be if it were based on users’ mobile phones with access to their medical records. From there you could essentially pinpoint the one person who caused the spread of a disease from one location to another.

The use of this data and prediction of consumer behavior， however， sits uncomfortably with many， particularly privacy advocates， while some suggest it could take away free choice.

Others are less skeptical and maintain it is convenient and consumers will ultimately benefit by getting tailored services， even if it is intrusive.

Whether the majority of consumers are likely to opt into this new world of business-customer relationship remains to be seen and while corporate attitudes are shifting towards big data， consumers will have to think differently about their data as well.

“Data ownership will be the most important discussion. The problem is lots of people are using our data with our permission， but I don’t think people have a good idea of what is being done with that data，” said Mr. Thorp.

“Going forward， we need to give people a personal relationship with their data.”

One major problem， according to Mr. Thorp， is the complexity of this data and the way it is presented.

“It doesn’t look like anything of value so people are willing to give it up， but we need to think about data in a broader way.”

Few are aware of it or even bothered about it. How many people actually check the permissions they grant to mobile apps on their smartphones once they have downloaded them？ More and more apps are increasingly asking for permission to access more information and data stored on our phones， from our pictures and cameras to contacts lists， files databases and emails.

“There are different segments in society and their acceptance and readiness to give away this information may vary，” says Mr. Auda.

“Among the younger generation， there is acceptance to share what they do， where they are， what they eat， whether they are in good health or not. But regulation and governance of data is an important component of the overall big-data story and they are slowly being realized.”

Mr. Thorp points out three main factors in the future of big data： ethics， ownership and possibility.

“Ethics is one of the things we will be forced to negotiate with over the next couple of years，” he said.

“Companies that are able to understand data ownership and can broker8） fair negotiation over data ownership with consumers will have the advantage.”

Finally in terms of data possibility， Mr. Thorp says the technology will change public understanding of data.

Until then， it may be wise to remain wary of putting too much personal data in the hands of those with only commercial purposes in mind.

每當你打開手機，撥一個電話，在你手機上的地圖應用軟件上搜索一個地點，或是在線購買一種產品時，你都留下了點點滴滴的寶貴數據。

所有這些能夠確定你行為習慣的信息正在世界各地的服務器上流通，構成了名為“大數據”的新趨勢的一部分。這三個字看似很簡單，卻少有人能理解其蘊含的重要意義。

通過社交網絡、移動設備甚至冰箱和汽車的內置傳感器芯片，我們截至目前已創(chuàng)造出了大約2.7澤字節(jié)（一千字節(jié)的7次冪）的數據，相當于3600萬部高清視頻的數據量，而這一數字正在以每年40%～45%的比率遞增。

愛立信公司的研究表明，到2017年，人們使用的數據將是今天的15倍。屆時將產生30億智能手機入網用戶，50億移動寬帶入網用戶和90億移動手機入網用戶。到2020年，全世界將有500億臺聯網設備，其中每一臺設備都將產生數據。

截至目前，解讀所有這些數據并非易事。數據科學家們應運而生，他們的工作就是開發(fā)工具來挖掘信息“礦藏”?，F在，這些工具變得足夠復雜精密，不僅能跟蹤你的習慣，而且還能預測你的習慣。

“我們現在正經歷一個非常有趣的時代，身處其中，我們看到數據從各種源頭向我們涌來。這些數據不再僅僅是通過業(yè)務系統(tǒng)生成的存儲在企業(yè)內部數據庫的客戶數據?！盜BM軟件集團中東事業(yè)部經理艾哈邁德·奧達說道。

如今，我們的智能手機里含有越來越多的個人信息。從銀行交易到醫(yī)療記錄，我們的日常生活正被壓縮到一個個設備中。

我們可能會認為這些個人信息屬于我們自己，但其他人也能訪問這些信息。而且，對于很多正在試圖更好地了解消費者習慣的公司而言，這些數據很有價值。

“了解消費者的位置、背景、喜歡去的地方以及上班或吃午飯的時間，將有助于這些機構更好地推出個性化服務。”奧達先生說。

越來越多的這類數據被視為非結構化數據，它們源自PDF文件、電子郵件、音頻文件、Facebook上的“贊”以及YouTube上的分享等。無論是個人客戶還是各種大小型機構都越來越需要數據，也越來越意識到數據以及能夠從數據中獲益的重要性。從數據中獲益是通過數據形成更強的商業(yè)洞察力，并最終將之轉化為競爭優(yōu)勢。

根據你的選擇和習慣，大數據工具的算法旨在預測出你將要作出什么選擇，以及你將會做些什么。

這些算法能夠徹底地重新定義商業(yè)經營的方式。商家知道，有些顧客只會在商品價格優(yōu)惠時才會來購物，如果商家可以牢靠地向這些顧客提供折扣的話，又何必通過全場半價來吸引相同數量的顧客呢？其他那些一直以來愿意全價購物的顧客可以繼續(xù)全價購物。

不過，大數據可不是只能在零售領域發(fā)揮作用。

在發(fā)生重大災難時，佛羅里達州的一家保險公司會利用社交媒體來決定先為哪些客戶理賠。

安全第一保險公司正在使用IBM推出的一款軟件來分析經由電子郵件和社交媒體發(fā)出的信息。通過利用文本挖掘工具、分析方法和自然語言處理，該軟件可以捕捉到那些表達憂慮或表示客戶財產遭受重大損失的詞語。

幾年前，當禽流感疫情爆發(fā)時，世界各國都盡其所能采取了各種預防措施，以防止該疾病越過邊境潛入國內。不過，未來人們對疾病傳播的監(jiān)測和對疾病的預防將變得更加精確。

“你會在推特上發(fā)布‘我剛到新德里’這樣赤裸裸的炫耀性推文。人們試圖通過這樣的文字告知他們旅行去了什么地方，以吸引我們的眼球。我把這叫做‘富人的虛榮’?！眲?chuàng)新研究辦公室的聯合創(chuàng)始人耶·索普最近在拉斯維加斯的易安信世界大會上發(fā)表演講時說道。

“我知道他們要去哪兒，因為他們在推特上說了；我也知道他們從哪兒來，因為這些信息就在個人簡介里。如果我們密切關注推特，我們或許就能構建出一個近乎實況轉播的人類旅行模型。如果流行性人類疾病爆發(fā)，這一模型就派上用場了?！?/p>

創(chuàng)造一個這樣的工具很簡單，而推文又屬于公共領域，所以人們在利用和提取這類數據時不存在任何障礙。

想象一下，如果這種工具是基于用戶的移動電話開發(fā)的，可以訪問其病歷信息，那該工具得有多精確啊。這樣你基本上就可以精確地定位到將疾病從一個地方傳到另一個地方的那個人。

然而，對這種數據的利用和對消費者行為的預測會讓很多人感到不安，特別是隱私權的倡導者們，而同時有些人提出這會剝奪人們自由選擇的權利。

其他人對此沒有那么懷疑，并堅持認為這很便利，而消費者最終將通過獲取量身定制的服務獲益，即使這種服務方式帶有侵犯性。

至于大多數消費者是否有可能選擇加入這個企業(yè)與消費者關系的新世界，仍然有待觀察。企業(yè)對大數據的態(tài)度正在轉變，而消費者也不得不從不同的角度來考慮他們的個人數據。

“數據所有權將是最重要的討論話題。問題在于，很多人是經過我們授權使用我們的數據的，但我認為人們并不清楚這些數據被用來做什么。”索普先生說。

“在未來發(fā)展中，我們需要在人們與其數據間建立一種個人聯系。”

索普先生認為，這里的一個主要問題在于這些數據及其呈現方式的復雜性。

“這些數據看上去不像是什么有價值的東西，所以人們愿意放棄它，但我們需要用更開闊的思路來看待數據?！?/p>

很少有人注意到這些數據，甚至沒什么人為此操過心。在人們將移動應用程序下載到智能手機上后，又有多少人真的會去檢查他們授予這些應用程序的權限？越來越多的應用程序在不停地請求得到授權，以便訪問存儲在我們手機上的更多信息和數據，包括我們的照片、攝像頭、通訊錄、文件數據庫以及電子郵件。

“社會中存在不同的群體，他們接受和愿意提供這種信息的程度可能不盡相同?！眾W達先生說。

“年輕一代的人們愿意分享他們在做什么、身在何處、吃了什么以及身體是否健康等信息。但數據的規(guī)范和管理是整個大數據圖景中的一個重要組成部分，人們正逐漸認識到這一點。”

索普先生指出，大數據的未來包含三個主要因素：道德、所有權和可能性。

“在接下來的幾年里，道德將是我們不得不協商的問題之一。”他說。

“那些能夠理解數據所有權并且能夠同消費者就數據所有權展開公平談判的公司將占據優(yōu)勢?！?/p>

最后，在數據的可能性方面，索普先生稱技術將改變公眾對數據的認識。

在那之前，明智的做法或許是保持警惕，不把過多的個人數據交到那些頭腦中只有商業(yè)目的的人手中。

1.zettabyte [?zet?bait] n. [計]澤字節(jié)，即1021字節(jié)

2.power [?pa??（r）] n. [數]冪，乘方

3.Ericsson：愛立信公司，1876年成立于瑞典首都斯德哥爾摩，是全球最大的移動通訊設備商。

4.text mining：文本挖掘

5.pick up on：〈美口〉注意到

6.thinly veiled：未經修飾的，沒有遮掩的

7.EMC conference：易安信世界大會（EMC World Conference）。易安信（EMC）是美國一家信息存儲資訊科技公司，每年都召開一次世界大會，該會議是存儲業(yè)界了解易安信技術、產品和解決方案的重要渠道。

8.broker [?br??k?（r）] vt. 作為權力經紀人進行談判，討價還價