President Obama： Four more years？

IN DENVER four years ago， an inspiring presidential candidate announced that he would change America. Barack Obama promised to put aside partisan differences， restore hope to those without jobs， begin the process of saving the planet from global warming， and make America proud again.

四年前，美國丹佛，某位躊躇滿志的總統(tǒng)候選人宣布他將改變美國。這位名叫巴拉克 · 奧巴馬的候選人承諾將擱置黨派分歧，重鑄失業(yè)者信心，啟動解決全球氣候變暖進程，恢復美利堅榮光。

Next week Mr Obama will address his fellow Democrats at their convention in Charlotte， North Carolina， with little of this hopeful agenda completed. Three million more Americans are out of work than four years ago， and the national debt is $5 trillion bigger. Partisan gridlock is worse than ever： health-care reform， a genuinely impressive achievement， has become a prime source of rancour. Businessfolk are split over whether he dislikes capitalism or is merely indifferent to it. His global-warming efforts have evaporated. America’s standing in the Muslim world is no higher than it was under George W. Bush， Iran remains dangerous， Russia and China are still prickly despite the promised resets， and the prison in Guantánamo remains open.

下周（9月4日及之后兩天）奧巴馬將和他的民主黨同志在北卡羅來納州夏洛特市召開民主黨全國代表大會，而到那時，他的競選承諾依舊很難實現(xiàn)。四年過去了，美國的失業(yè)人口增長了300萬；政府債務多出5萬億美元之巨；驢象僵局比之前更加惡劣；而唯一令人印象深刻的成就——醫(yī)療改革，也已惹得民怨沸騰；商界人士對奧巴馬究竟是厭惡資本主義還是僅僅對這一制度不感興趣仍然拿不定主意；阻止全球氣候變暖已然沒有了效果；美國在穆斯林世界的地位比布什時代還要低；伊朗依舊危險；俄羅斯與中國雖然有所改變，但仍然棘手；關塔那摩監(jiān)獄的大門依舊敞開著。

So far， so underwhelming

The defence of Mr Obama’s record comes down to one phrase： it could all have been a lot worse. He inherited an economy in free fall thanks to the banking crash and the fiscal profligacy that occurred under his predecessor； his stimulus measures and his saving of Detroit carmakers helped avert a second Depression； overall， he deserves decent if patchy grades on the economy. Confronted by obstructionist Republicans in Congress， he did well to get anything through at all. Abroad he has sensibly recalibrated American foreign policy. And there have been individual triumphs， such as the killing of Osama bin Laden.

奧巴馬的執(zhí)政記錄可以一言以辯之：如果不是他，情況會更糟。他從前任手中接過來的是一個自由落體式的經(jīng)濟，銀行倒閉、財政虧空，這些都是在小布什任期內(nèi)發(fā)生的；他對底特律汽車制造商的刺激政策和出手相助，避免了二次大蕭條的出現(xiàn)；總的來說，以這樣的經(jīng)濟成績來看，他做得差強人意。面對國會里面跟他作對的共和黨人，他表現(xiàn)出色，拿到了他想拿到的結果；在國際事務上，他重新校定了美國的對外政策。奧巴馬也取得了一些外交成果，比如擊斃奧薩馬 · 本 · 拉登。

But this does not amount to a compelling case for re-election， in the view of either this paper or the American people. More than 60% of voters believe their country to be on the wrong track. Mr Obama’s approval ratings are well under 50%； almost two-thirds of voters are unimpressed （however harshly） by how he has handled the economy. Worn down by the difficulties of office， the great reformer has become a cautious man， surrounded by an insular group of advisers. The candidate who promised bold solutions to the country’s gravest problems turned into the president who failed even to back his own commission’s plans for cutting the deficit.

但想要連任，僅有這些還不夠令人信服——這不僅是本報的觀點，也是美國民眾的看法。60%以上的選民認為美國已經(jīng)偏離了正確的軌道。奧巴馬目前的支持率遠低于50%；有三分之二的選民認為他處理經(jīng)濟的方式不當（盡管此話有些刻?。?。由于執(zhí)政歷程的坎坷，這位偉大的改革家已經(jīng)變得謹小慎微，他身邊的顧問又保守狹隘。當年的那位候選人曾承諾，要果敢地解決美國最為嚴重的一些問題；可當他成為總統(tǒng)之后，甚至無法為自己的委員會削減赤字的方案提供支持。

Were he facing a more charismatic candidate than Mitt Romney or a less extremist bunch than the Republicans， Mr Obama would already be staring at defeat. The fact that the president has had to “go negative” so early and so relentlessly shows how badly he needs the election to be about Mr Romney’s weaknesses rather than his own achievements. A man who four years ago epitomised hope will arrive in Charlotte with a campaign that thus far has been about invoking fear.

作為總統(tǒng)候選人，米特 · 羅姆尼魅力不夠；作為政治派別，共和黨又相對極端，否則奧巴馬敗局早已注定。奧巴馬被迫這么早、這么無情地“采取了消極策略”，這說明他急需讓民眾在這場競選中去關注羅姆尼的弱點，而不是去關注他本人的政績。四年前，奧巴馬曾是希望的化身；四年后的今天，他將抵達夏洛特市，未來的競選之路異?？部馈?/p>

Mr Obama must offer more than this， for three reasons. First， a negative campaign may well fail. The Republicans are a rum bunch with a wooden leader； but Mr Romney’s record as an executive and governor is impressive， and his running-mate， Paul Ryan， is a fount of bold ideas. Mr Obama’s strategy of blaming everything on Republican obstructionism will strike many voters as demeaning.

奧巴馬要做的還有很多，原因有三。其一，消極競選策略可能會失敗。共和黨是個古怪的政治群體，其領導人也多顯木訥。但是羅姆尼從商和執(zhí)政的履歷可圈可點，而他的競選搭檔保羅 · 瑞恩勇謀兼?zhèn)?。如果奧巴馬把一切責任都推給共和黨人，會讓選民覺得總統(tǒng)有掉價之嫌。

Second， even if negative campaigning works， a re-elected Mr Obama will need the strength that comes from a convincing agenda. Otherwise the Republicans， who will control the House and possibly the Senate too， will make mincemeat of him. And， third， it is not just Mr Obama who needs a plan. America does too. Its finances and its government require a drastic overhaul. Surely this charismatic， thoughtful man has more ideas about what must be done than he has so far let on？

其二，即使消極競選奏效，連任的奧巴馬也需要交出一份令人信服的議程表。否則屆時可能拿下參眾兩院的共和黨人會把他批得體無完膚。其三，需要拿出方案的不僅僅是奧巴馬本人，還有整個美國。從經(jīng)濟到政府，美國都需要進行大刀闊斧的改革。至于該如何做，想必這位魅力超凡、心思縝密的總統(tǒng)另有良策吧？

A tempting option will be to galvanise his party base， with talk of more health reform and threats of higher taxes on business and the rich. Rather than redesigning government， he could suck up to the public-sector unions by promising that jobs will not be cut. Rather than cutting entitlement programmes， he could reassure the elderly that America can actually afford them.

他面臨著一個誘人的選擇：可以進一步去宣傳醫(yī)療改革，并聲稱要加大對商業(yè)和富人的征稅力度，借此來鞏固民主黨的黨派基礎。倘要取悅公共部門工會，奧巴馬不必重組政府，他只需承諾不會減少工作崗位即可；他可以安撫老年人美國政府完全養(yǎng)得起他們，就不必去削減福利項目。

Such an approach would fit the pattern of too much of his presidency， and his campaign so far； but it would do America a disservice， and it might not help Mr Obama either. His victory in 2008 relied on reaching beyond the groups that traditionally vote Democratic and bringing in young voters and wealthier whites. Many of them are centrists who are suspicious of Mr Romney， but since they have to foot the bill for government profligacy， they will not vote for a president who promises more of the same.

迄今為止，這種方式符合奧巴馬大多數(shù)時的執(zhí)政風格，也符合他的競選風格；但這么做對美國有害，也對奧巴馬無益。2008年他獲勝的原因在于他一方面贏得了民主黨傳統(tǒng)選民的支持，另一方面他又拿下了年輕選民和更為富有的白人選民的選票。他們其中的很多人是中間派，對羅姆尼持懷疑態(tài)度。但如果奧巴馬政府繼續(xù)大手大腳，不做出改變的話，他們將不會投票給他。

Reach for the radical centre

Appealing to the centre is not easy for Mr Obama. His allies on the left are powerful and， in a country so polarised， the middle ground can be a dangerous place. But there are plenty of things that many on both sides of the political aisle could agree on， including tax and immigration reform， investment in schools and aid to businesses that are creating jobs. Crucially， Mr Obama could explain how he intends to cut the still-soaring debt without pretending that taxing only the rich will help in any meaningful way.

討好中間派對于奧巴馬來說并非易事。他在左派的盟友勢力龐大，而在一個兩極分化如此嚴重的國家，采取中間立場可能會十分危險。不過政界左右兩派能夠在很多方面達成共識，包括稅收和移民改革、教育投資以及對創(chuàng)造工作崗位的企業(yè)提供援助等等。關鍵在于奧巴馬應當解釋一下他打算如何去削減居高不下的債務，他不能再鼓吹只向富人征稅對美國有什么好處了。

Mr Obama has a strong belief in social justice. It drove his health-care reform. But he needs to distinguish between a creditable desire to help the weak and a dangerous preference for the public over the private sector. The jobs that poor Americans need will be created by companies. Smothering firms in red tape is not the way to help them； Mr Obama should vow to stop adding to it， and to start cutting some of it away. The party faithful in Charlotte might not like centrist ideas much. But they would appeal to the voters Mr Obama needs to win over and， should he be re-elected， they will strengthen him in his dealings with the Republicans in Congress.

奧巴馬在社會公平方面有著堅定的信念，這是他推動醫(yī)療改革的動力所在。但他需要搞清楚：幫助弱者的良好愿望并不等于讓公共部門壓過私營部門——這種偏愛很危險。為需要就業(yè)的美國窮人創(chuàng)造崗位正是各大公司。用繁文縟節(jié)來限制公司發(fā)展對其有害無益；奧巴馬應當承諾不再繼續(xù)進行此類限制，并開始在這方面進行精簡。夏洛特市那些忠誠的民主黨人可能對中間派的理念并沒有太多好感，但仍然會拉攏這些選民，因為奧巴馬需要贏得他們的支持。而且如果奧巴馬順利連任，今后在國會里與共和黨人周旋時，這些中間派會助他一臂之力。

Incumbents tend to win presidential elections， but second-term presidents tend to be disappointing. Mr Obama’s first-term record suggests that， if re-elected， he could be the lamest of ducks. That’s why he needs a good answer to the big question： just what would you do with another four years？

現(xiàn)任總統(tǒng)往往更容易贏得選舉，但連任后通常表現(xiàn)欠佳。如果連任，奧巴馬可能是歷屆總統(tǒng)中最慘的“跛腳鴨”，這從他的第一任期履歷可見一斑。因此，他需要對一個重大問題給出令人滿意的答復：再給四年你將如何？