Who Wouldn’t Like Prices to Start Falling? 誰(shuí)不想讓物價(jià)下跌？

Many Americans are in a sour mood about the economy for one main reason： Prices feel too high.

許多美國(guó)人對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)情況感到不滿，一個(gè)主要原因是物價(jià)太高了。

Maybe they’re not rising as fast as they had been， but average prices are still painfully above where they were three years ago. And they’re mostly heading higher still.

或許物價(jià)上漲的速度沒(méi)有之前那么快，但其平均價(jià)格依然遠(yuǎn)超2021年的水平，而且大多數(shù)商品價(jià)格仍在持續(xù)上漲。

Consider a 2-liter bottle of soda： In February 2021， before inflation began heating up， it cost an average of $1.67 in supermarkets across America. Three years later？ That bottle is going for $2.25—a 35% increase.

以一瓶2升裝蘇打水為例：在通貨膨脹升溫前的2021年2月，它在美國(guó)各地超市的平均售價(jià)為1.67美元。而三年后呢？這瓶蘇打水的價(jià)格為2.25美元——上漲了35%。

Or egg prices. They soared in 2022， then fell back down. Yet they’re still 43% higher than they were three years ago.

再看看雞蛋的價(jià)格。雞蛋的售價(jià)于2022年飆升，隨后回落，但其價(jià)格較三年前仍高出43%。

Likewise， the average used-car price： It rocketed from roughly $23，000 in February 2021 to $31，000 in April 2022. By last month， the average was down to $26，752. But that’s still up 16% from February 2021.

二手車的均價(jià)也是如此：從2021年2月的約2.3萬(wàn)美元飆升至2022年4月的3.1萬(wàn)美元。截至上個(gè)月，二手車均價(jià)降至2.6752萬(wàn)美元，相較于2021年2月仍高出16%。

Wouldn’t it be great if prices actually fell—what economists call deflation？ Who wouldn’t want to fire up a time machine and return to the days before the economy rocketed out of the pandemic recession and sent prices soaring？

如果物價(jià)真的下跌——也就是發(fā)生經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家所說(shuō)的通貨緊縮——那該多好??？誰(shuí)不想坐上時(shí)光機(jī)，回到經(jīng)濟(jì)從疫情中強(qiáng)勢(shì)復(fù)蘇導(dǎo)致物價(jià)飆升之前的日子呢？

At least prices are now rising more slowly—what’s called disinflation. On Friday， for example， the government said a key price gauge rose 0.3% in February， down from a 0.4% gain in January. And compared with a year earlier， prices were up 2.5%， way down from a peak of 7.1% in mid-2022.

至少當(dāng)前物價(jià)上漲的速度放緩了，即出現(xiàn)反通貨膨脹。例如上周五，政府稱某關(guān)鍵價(jià)格指標(biāo)于2月份上漲了0.3%，低于1月份0.4%的漲幅。相較于2023年，物價(jià)同比上漲了2.5%，遠(yuǎn)低于2022年中期7.1%的峰值。

But those incremental improvements are hardly enough to please the public.

然而這些緩慢的改善不足以讓大眾滿意。

“Most Americans are not just looking for disinflation，’’ Lisa Cook， a member of the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors， said last year. “They’re looking for deflation. They want these prices to be back where they were before the pandemic.’’

“大多數(shù)美國(guó)人不僅盼著反通貨膨脹，”美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)理事會(huì)成員麗莎·庫(kù)克去年表示，“他們想看到通貨緊縮，希望物價(jià)回歸疫情之前的水平。”

Many economists caution， though， that consumers should be careful what they wish for. Falling prices across the economy would actually be an unhealthy sign.

但是，許多經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家警告稱，人們應(yīng)該謹(jǐn)慎對(duì)待這一期望。在各個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域出現(xiàn)普遍的物價(jià)下跌實(shí)際上是一個(gè)不良信號(hào)。

“There are，’’ the Bank of England warns， “more consequences from falling prices than meets the eye1.’’

英格蘭銀行發(fā)出警告：“物價(jià)下跌帶來(lái)的后果并非看上去那么簡(jiǎn)單?！?/p>

What could be so bad about lower prices？

那么，物價(jià)下跌有什么壞處呢？

What is deflation？

什么是通貨緊縮？

Deflation is a widespread and sustained drop in prices across the economy. Occasional month-to-month drops in consumer prices don’t count. The United States hasn’t seen genuine deflation since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

通貨緊縮是指經(jīng)濟(jì)中普遍且持續(xù)的價(jià)格下跌。偶爾發(fā)生的消費(fèi)價(jià)格逐月下跌并不作數(shù)。美國(guó)自20世紀(jì)30年代的大蕭條以來(lái)，就沒(méi)有經(jīng)歷過(guò)真正的通貨緊縮。

Japan has experienced a much more recent bout of deflation. It is only now emerging from decades of falling prices that began with the collapse of its property and financial markets in the early 1990s.

日本近期則經(jīng)歷了一陣通貨緊縮。20世紀(jì)90年代初期，日本房地產(chǎn)和金融市場(chǎng)崩潰，由此引發(fā)數(shù)十年物價(jià)下跌，日本剛剛從這場(chǎng)動(dòng)蕩中走出來(lái)。

What’s wrong with deflation？

通貨緊縮有什么問(wèn)題？

“Although lower prices may seem like a good thing，’’ Banco de Espa?a， the Spanish central bank， says on its website， “deflation can in fact be highly damaging to the economy.’’

“雖然物價(jià)更低可能看起來(lái)是好事，”西班牙銀行在其網(wǎng)站上表示，“但實(shí)際上，通貨緊縮可能會(huì)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)造成嚴(yán)重?fù)p害?！?/p>

How so？ Mainly because falling prices tend to discourage consumers from spending. Why buy now， after all， if you can purchase what you want—cars， furniture， appliances， vacations—at a lower price later？

這是為什么呢？主要是因?yàn)槲飪r(jià)下跌往往會(huì)抑制消費(fèi)者的購(gòu)買(mǎi)欲望。如果你能在以后以更低的價(jià)格買(mǎi)到想要的東西，比如汽車、家具、電器、度假等等，為什么要現(xiàn)在買(mǎi)呢？

The reality is that the economy’s health depends on steady consumer purchases. In the United States， household spending accounts for around 70% of the entire economy. If consumers were to pull back， en masse， to await lower prices， businesses would face intense pressure to cut prices even more to try to jump-start sales.

而現(xiàn)實(shí)是經(jīng)濟(jì)健康依賴于穩(wěn)定的消費(fèi)支出。在美國(guó)，家庭支出約占整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)的70%。如果消費(fèi)者大規(guī)模延遲消費(fèi)以等待更低的價(jià)格，企業(yè)將面臨巨大的壓力，不得不進(jìn)一步降價(jià)以刺激銷售。

In the meantime， employers might have to lay off waves of employees or cut pay—or both. Unemployed people， of course， are even less likely to spend， so prices would likely keep falling. All of which risks triggering a “deflationary spiral’’ of price cuts， layoffs， more price cuts， more layoffs. And on and on. Another recession could follow.

與此同時(shí)，雇主可能不得不進(jìn)行一波又一波裁員或削減工資，或是二者并行。而失業(yè)的人更不可能消費(fèi)，所以物價(jià)會(huì)進(jìn)一步下跌。這些狀況可能會(huì)引發(fā)“螺旋式通縮”，即降價(jià)、裁員、進(jìn)一步降價(jià)、更多的裁員……如此循環(huán)往復(fù)，就可能會(huì)引發(fā)另一場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。

It was to prevent that very kind of economic nastiness that explains why the Bank of Japan resorted to negative interest rates in 2016 and why the Fed kept U.S. rates near zero for seven straight years during and after the Great Recession of 2007—2009.

正是為了防止這種經(jīng)濟(jì)惡性循環(huán)，日本銀行在2016年采取了負(fù)利率政策，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在2007—2009年的經(jīng)濟(jì)大蕭條期間及之后的七年中，始終將美國(guó)利率維持在趨于零的水平。

Deflation exerts another painful effect， too： It hurts borrowers by making their inflation-adjusted loans more expensive.

通貨緊縮還會(huì)產(chǎn)生另一種不好的影響：它使通脹調(diào)整后的貸款價(jià)值更高，從而對(duì)借款人造成不利影響。

Are there any benefits of deflation？

通貨緊縮有好處嗎？

It’s certainly true that Americans can make their paychecks go further when prices are falling. If food or gasoline prices were to tumble， households would surely find it less painful to afford groceries or their commutes to work—as long as they remained employed.

的確，當(dāng)物價(jià)下跌時(shí)，美國(guó)人的工資更經(jīng)用了。如果食品或汽油價(jià)格暴跌，家庭在購(gòu)買(mǎi)雜貨、支付通勤費(fèi)用時(shí)會(huì)輕松一些——只要他們還能保得住工作。

Some economists even question the notion that deflation poses a serious economic threat. In 2015， researchers at the Bank for International Settlements， a forum for the world’s central banks， reviewed 140 years of deflationary episodes in 38 economies and reached this conclusion： The correlation between falling prices and economic growth “is weak and derives mostly from the Great Depression.’’

一些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家甚至開(kāi)始質(zhì)疑通貨緊縮是否會(huì)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)構(gòu)成嚴(yán)重威脅。2015年，國(guó)際清算銀行（一個(gè)全球央行銀團(tuán)）的研究人員回顧了38個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體140年以來(lái)的通貨緊縮情況，得出了如下結(jié)論：物價(jià)下跌與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的相關(guān)性“很弱，主要是因?yàn)榇笫挆l”。

But the exception was a doozy2： From 1929—1933， U.S. economic output plummeted by a third， prices sank by a quarter and the unemployment rate shot up from 3% to a crushing 25%.

但例外情況格外引人注目：從1929年至1933年，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)出暴跌1/3，物價(jià)下跌1/4，失業(yè)率由3%飆升至令人窒息的25%。

The bank’s researchers said the biggest economic risk came not from falling prices for goods and services but rather from a freefall in the price of assets—stocks， bonds and real estate. Those collapsing assets， in turn， can topple banks that hold crumbling investments or that made loans to struggling real estate developers and homebuyers.

該行研究人員表示，最大的經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)并非源于商品和服務(wù)價(jià)格的下跌，而是來(lái)自資產(chǎn)價(jià)格（如股票、債券和房地產(chǎn)）的自由落體式下跌。這些垮掉的資產(chǎn)可能反過(guò)來(lái)導(dǎo)致銀行倒閉，而這些銀行往往或是持有不良投資，或是向陷入困境的房產(chǎn)商和購(gòu)房者放貸款。

The damaged banks may then cut off credit—the lifeblood of the broader economy.

受損的銀行隨后可能會(huì)切斷信貸，而信貸是整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)的命脈。

The likely result？ A painful recession.

這可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致什么結(jié)果呢？令人痛苦的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。

（譯者為“《英語(yǔ)世界》杯”翻譯大賽獲獎(jiǎng)?wù)撸?/p>

1 more than meets the eye 并非看起來(lái)那么簡(jiǎn)單。

2 doozy非常特別的，不同尋常的（通常指不好的事物）。