Why Smart People Make Bad Decisions為何聰明人做出糟糕的決策

Will Rogers1 once famously said， “Common sense ain’t common.” Nobel Laureate psychologist2 Dr. Daniel Kahneman has proven that humans are not the rational beings we believe ourselves to be. But why？

威爾·羅杰斯有句名言：“常識并不常見?！敝Z貝爾獎獲得者、心理學(xué)家丹尼爾·卡尼曼博士已經(jīng)證實，人類并非我們自認(rèn)為的那么理智。這是為何呢？

We live in a remarkably stressful age where we are overwhelmed with information. The news cycle was once only several hours， now it’s a full day. We are bombarded with “news，” which in many instances is neither interesting nor relevant， only different. And let us not forget the incessant3 bombardment4 with all types of “raw data，” much of which is incomplete. Human consciousness， and the brain that supports it， simply cannot withstand such overwhelming stimulation. It might come as a surprise to you， but the primary function of most of your brain’s physiology is to dampen5 and regulate arousal. Stress-related physical disorders are best understood as disorders of arousal. Overarousal cannot only cripple6 our bodies， but it can also cripple our minds. Findings from neuroscience have taught us that overarousal can play an important role in contributing to many of the poor decisions we make. If we can better understand how this happens， perhaps we can better prevent many actions we would later come to regret.

我們生活在一個異常緊張的時代，泛濫的信息讓我們應(yīng)接不暇。過去，新聞每隔幾小時更新一次，如今則是全天不間斷更新。我們被“新聞”轟炸，很多時候這些所謂的“新聞”既無趣也無實際意義，僅僅是內(nèi)容不同罷了。別忘了，我們還不斷遭受各類“原始數(shù)據(jù)”的侵襲，這些數(shù)據(jù)大部分是不完整的。人類的意識和維系它的大腦根本無法承受如此強烈的刺激。聽起來你可能覺得奇怪，但大腦最主要的生理功能是抑制和調(diào)節(jié)興奮。與壓力相關(guān)的身體失調(diào)被普遍認(rèn)為是興奮失調(diào)。過度興奮不僅會損害身體，還會侵蝕心智。神經(jīng)科學(xué)的研究成果表明，在我們做出的很多糟糕決策中，過度興奮都扮演著重要角色。如果我們能更好地理解其中的緣由，或許就能更好地避免做出可能會讓人后悔的行為。

The brain creates error-prone7 simplifications

大腦的簡化處理容易出錯

In order to manage all of the data it must process in a day， the brain creates information-processing short-cuts， or simplifications. An information-processing simplification （sometimes called bias） is a processing filter that results from being confronted with an incomplete or overwhelming amount of information. Simplifications streamline8 or attempt to clarify large or incomplete data sets and allow us to reach decisions that would otherwise be daunting. They also conserve precious “mental energy.” As such， these simplifications are “default programs” for processing large amounts of data or for making decisions in stressful situations. These simplifications do indeed simplify decision making; most importantly， however， they often lead us to make mistakes. The worst part of this scenario is， in most cases， the more we are confronted with ambiguous or overwhelming amounts of information to process， the more we revert to these automatic error-prone decision-making simplifications. Thus， we learn to become better at making mistakes！

為了應(yīng)對一天之中不得不處理的全部數(shù)據(jù)，大腦生成了信息處理的捷徑，或稱為信息簡化處理。當(dāng)大腦面對不完整或過量的信息時，就會進行信息簡化處理（有時也被稱為偏見），它是一種信息處理過濾器。簡化處理能夠高效處理或嘗試?yán)迩宕罅炕虿煌暾臄?shù)據(jù)集，這樣我們下決定時就不會覺得格外棘手。簡化處理還為我們節(jié)省了寶貴的“心理能量”。因此，當(dāng)需要處理大量數(shù)據(jù)或在壓力下做決定時，簡化處理便成了“默認(rèn)程序”。雖然簡化處理確實能讓決策變得簡單，但關(guān)鍵是，它也時常誘使我們犯錯。并且最糟糕的是，一般來說，我們越是經(jīng)常面對模棱兩可或過量的信息，就越傾向于這些下意識的、易出錯的決策簡化處理。因此，我們學(xué)會了更擅長犯錯！

Why it’s hard to learn from our mistakes

為何難以從錯誤中吸取教訓(xùn)

So why is it we don’t simply make a mistake， learn from it and move on？ The answer is our brains perceive ambiguity9 and overstimulation as “threats” that must be defended against. Defense mechanisms are designed to ensure our survival in stressful situations. As such， they override10 our otherwise natural tendencies for corrective learning from our mistakes. In fact， the more we use these simplifications， the stronger they become. For example， worry is a defense mechanism. The more we worry， the greater our subsequent inclination to worry. For decades I have been intrigued with the chemical and micro-anatomic bases of these self-defending survival patterns and have written about their underlying mechanism long-term potentiation11 based upon something called neuroplasticity12 in the book A Clinical Guide to the Treatment of the Human Stress Response. Neuroplasticity refers to the inclination of the brain to change its shape and function based upon the repeated introduction of information （stimulation）. With time and use， the brain develops preferential pathways for information processing， decision making and action. The more we do anything， we alter our brains to become better at it. This includes worry， irritability， impulsiveness and patterns of thought that contribute to poor decision making.

為什么我們不是簡單地從犯錯到吸取教訓(xùn)然后繼續(xù)前行呢？答案在于我們的大腦將模棱兩可和過度刺激視為必須抵制的“威脅”。防御機制旨在確保我們能在壓力情況下生存。正因如此，防御機制會壓制我們的天然傾向，而我們原本會自然而然從錯誤中吸取經(jīng)驗自我矯正。實際上，簡化處理會隨著使用頻率的增多而被強化。例如，憂慮是一種防御機制，我們越是經(jīng)常憂慮，隨后憂慮的傾向就越大。這種自動防御的生存模式的化學(xué)和微觀組織基礎(chǔ)，數(shù)十年來一直讓我感興趣。我在《人類壓力反應(yīng)治療臨床指南》一書中指出，這種模式的底層機制是基于神經(jīng)功能重塑的長時程增強。神經(jīng)功能重塑是指根據(jù)重復(fù)引入的信息（刺激），大腦具有改變其形狀和功能的趨向。隨著時間的推移和不斷的使用，大腦會形成不同的優(yōu)先路徑分別用于信息處理、決策和行動。無論何事，我們做得越多，大腦就會隨之改變，讓我們愈發(fā)擅長此事，包括導(dǎo)致糟糕決策的憂慮、易怒、沖動和思維模式。

4 dangerous oversimplifications

四種有危害的過度簡化

It has been said that recognition is the first step toward solving a problem. So， what do these error-prone simplifications look like？ Here are four common energy-saving simplifications.

人們常說發(fā)現(xiàn)問題是解決問題的第一步。那么，這些易造成錯誤的簡化是什么樣的呢？以下是四種常見又偷懶的簡化處理。

Binary13 thinking： When confronted with ambiguous or an overwhelming amount of data， we tend to boil decisions down to simple “all or none，” “yes or no” decisions. Sadly， the world we live in is dimensional， not binary. Binary decision making increases volatility14. It causes us to ignore the details that can be the difference between success and failure.

二元思維：面對含糊不清或過量的數(shù)據(jù)時，我們傾向于將決策歸結(jié)為簡單的“全或無”“是或否”?？上В覀兩畹氖澜缡嵌嗑S的，而不是二元的。非黑即白的決策增加了波動性，致使我們忽視了細節(jié)，而這些細節(jié)有可能關(guān)乎成敗。

Intuitive thinking： Intuitive thinking is reflexive. It uses very little energy. It employs pattern recognition and makes decisions based upon previous experience exclusively. It inhibits innovation. It can be wrong 70 percent of the time.

直覺思維：直覺思維是反射性的思維方式，幾乎不消耗能量。直覺思維運用模式識別并且完全基于以往的經(jīng)驗做出決定。它妨礙創(chuàng)新，而且有70%的概率是錯誤的。

Confirmative thinking： The brain does not like dissonance15. As a result， it searches for information that confirms the biases we already hold and the decisions we’ve already made. It rejects anything that does not fit our predetermined narrative. This simplification makes compromise with others impossible. It hinders creativity. It foretells the demise16 of the organization or system within which it becomes the norm.

確認(rèn)性思維：大腦不喜歡分歧。因此，大腦會搜集信息來鞏固我們已有的成見和已做的決定。大腦會否定任何與我們事先認(rèn)定的內(nèi)容相悖的東西。這種簡化處理讓我們難以與他人妥協(xié)。它阻礙了創(chuàng)造。當(dāng)確認(rèn)性思維在一個組織或系統(tǒng)中成為常態(tài)，預(yù)示著該組織或系統(tǒng)將走向衰落。

Primary-effect thinking： This refers to our tendency to make decisions thinking only of the primary outcome desired. It prohibits us from considering Robert Merton’s Law of Unintended Consequences. Every decision exerts an unintended ripple effect， even the decision not to decide. History is replete with examples of problems made worse by the unintended consequences of their intended solutions.

首要后果思維：指我們在做決定時傾向于只考慮最希望得到的結(jié)果。這阻止了我們?nèi)タ紤]羅伯特·默頓的意外后果定律。每個決定，即使選擇不做決定，都會激起意想不到的連鎖反應(yīng)。歷史上充滿了因為預(yù)期方案出現(xiàn)意外后果而使問題惡化的例子。

Overwriting is the key

重寫是關(guān)鍵

From the perspective of information processing， overwriting refers to the process of creating new information and functionally superimposing17 it on preexisting information. Overwriting may consist of two processes： 1） the creation of competing information pathways which with time and use subordinate the preexisting pathways， or 2） utilization of the same characters or infrastructure which serves to erase any trace of the preexisting pathways. This overwriting process is applicable to pathways in the brain as well. So powerful are these mechanisms， we believe they may even be capable of overriding some genetic programming.

從信息處理的角度來看，重寫是創(chuàng)造新的信息，并將新信息實用地疊加到原有信息上。重寫可能包含兩個過程：1）生成對抗信息路徑，隨著時間的推移和不斷使用，對抗信息路徑會取代原有信息路徑而居于支配地位；或者 2）利用相同的字符或基礎(chǔ)結(jié)構(gòu)抹去原有信息路徑的所有痕跡。重寫過程同樣適用于由大腦生成的路徑。重寫機制是如此強大，我們認(rèn)為它們甚至有能力覆蓋某些遺傳編程。

Clearly， repetition appears to be the most powerful way of overwriting. This is the essence of learning. But recent research has shown there are three ways to actually improve acquisition of new information： over-learning， exercise and sleep. Think of these as ways of increasing the power of repetition.

顯然，重復(fù)是最有效的重寫方式，是學(xué)習(xí)的本質(zhì)。但最近的研究表明，有三種方法能夠切實改善新信息的獲取：過度學(xué)習(xí)、運動和睡眠。要將這三者視作強化重復(fù)效力的方式。

The chemical basis of learning is complex， but we know the chemicals epinephrine and glutamate are involved. These chemicals serve to open the door for acquisition. But have you ever practiced something only to quickly forget it？ Recent research suggests that once new information is acquired， it needs to be consolidated， “sealed in，” so to speak. The gamma aminobutyric acid （GABA） appears to help with consolidation. GABA is released subsequent to epinephrine and glutamate， but apparently most significantly in over-learning situations. There is a popular belief that it requires 10，000 repetitions to achieve this level of over-learning. This assertion has been challenged. Certainly， the level of effort associated with over-learning will vary across tasks.

雖然學(xué)習(xí)的化學(xué)基礎(chǔ)復(fù)雜，但我們已經(jīng)知道其中涉及腎上腺素和谷氨酸。這些化學(xué)物質(zhì)有助于開啟信息獲取的大門。你是否曾練習(xí)過某些東西卻很快又忘記了？最近的研究表明，一旦獲得新信息，就需要對其進行鞏固，也可說是“封印”。γ-氨基丁酸（GABA）似乎有助于信息鞏固。GABA的分泌雖然滯后于腎上腺素和谷氨酸，但其在過度學(xué)習(xí)情境中的促進效果似乎最為顯著。有一種流行的說法：10，000次的重復(fù)才能達到過度學(xué)習(xí)的水準(zhǔn)。這種說法已受到質(zhì)疑。確實，過度學(xué)習(xí)所需的努力程度會因任務(wù)而異。

Research tells us that physical exercise prior to trying to learn new material increases acquisition and retention. Thirty minutes of physical exercise seems to be adequate to “prime” the brain for learni71b4ad9ca5b92da735af8a3111163106ng. Exercise increases the release of brain-derived neurotrophic factor （BDNF）， which is a chemical that appears to increase neuroplasticity.

研究表明，在嘗試學(xué)習(xí)新材料之前進行體育運動有助于信息的獲取和留存。30分鐘的運動似乎就足以讓大腦為學(xué)習(xí)“做好準(zhǔn)備”。運動增加了腦源性神經(jīng)營養(yǎng)因子（BDNF）的釋放，這是一種似乎能增加神經(jīng)可塑性的化學(xué)物質(zhì)。

Lastly， sleep actually affects learning. Prior to the onset of deep sleep， there is a state known as the hypnagogic18 state. The brain appears to be more receptive to the consolidation of new information in this state. So， if you want to learn something， study or psychologically rehearse the new material as you fall asleep. Interestingly， BDNF is released most in deep sleep， so the actual point of consolidation remains unclear. It may be that falling asleep with new information simply gives it higher priority for later consolidation.

最后，睡眠確實會影響學(xué)習(xí)。在進入深度睡眠之前，還有一種狀態(tài)被稱為睡前狀態(tài)。處于這種狀態(tài)下，大腦似乎更愿意鞏固新信息。所以，如果你想學(xué)習(xí)某樣?xùn)|西，那就在入睡時記誦或在心里默誦新材料。有趣的是，在深度睡眠階段BDNF釋放得最多，因此鞏固具體何時發(fā)生仍不得而知。也有可能，帶著新信息入睡只是為稍后的鞏固賦予了更高的優(yōu)先級。

（譯者為“《英語世界》杯”翻譯大賽獲獎?wù)撸?/p>

1（1879—1935），美國幽默作家。他所說的“Common sense ain’t common.”意指常識并不多見于人，或很多人缺乏常識。 2 psychologist心理學(xué)家。 3 incessant不停的，持續(xù)不斷的。 4 bombardment轟擊；炮擊；痛斥。 5 dampen抑制，減輕；使潮濕。

6 cripple使殘廢；使成瘸子；嚴(yán)重毀壞。 7 error-prone易出錯的。 8 streamline使（系統(tǒng)、機構(gòu)等）效率更高。

9 ambiguity歧義；模棱兩可。 10 override制服，壓倒；廢棄；推翻（決議）。 11 long-term potentiation長時程增強：突觸前神經(jīng)元在短時間內(nèi)受到快速重復(fù)刺激后，在突觸后神經(jīng)元快速形成持續(xù)較長時間的興奮性突觸后電位增強的現(xiàn)象。

12 neuroplasticity神經(jīng)功能重塑：神經(jīng)控制功能受損后，神經(jīng)組織通過自我調(diào)控和代償發(fā)生的適應(yīng)性改變。 13 binary二元的；二進制的。 14 volatility變動不止，反復(fù)無常。

15 dissonance不一致，不和諧。 16 demise死亡；終止；失敗。

17 superimpose（把……）加在……的上面；附加，添加。

18 hypnagogic〈心理〉（與）睡前狀態(tài)（有關(guān)）的。