越南對RCEP寄予厚望

《美國之聲新聞》社論

越南有可能在《區(qū)域全面經(jīng)濟伙伴關(guān)系協(xié)定》（RCEP）生效之初就有所收獲。澳大利亞和新西蘭在2021年11月2日核準(zhǔn)了該協(xié)定，使之達(dá)到了生效的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。協(xié)定已于2022年1月生效。

一共15個亞太地區(qū)的國家聯(lián)合簽署了RCEP，即中國、韓國、日本、澳大利亞、新西蘭五國，加上東盟的文萊、柬埔寨、印度尼西亞、老撾、馬來西亞、緬甸、菲律賓、新加坡、泰國和越南10國。

RCEP是公認(rèn)的世界最大自貿(mào)協(xié)定，囊括了全球約30%的人口以及世界約30%的GDP。協(xié)議將為區(qū)域內(nèi)90%的商品削減關(guān)稅。

越南認(rèn)為RCEP是其融入世界經(jīng)濟的成果之一，這一點在新冠肺炎疫情肆虐以及世界經(jīng)濟亟待復(fù)蘇的當(dāng)下顯得尤為突出。越南另有14個早已生效的自貿(mào)協(xié)定，這些協(xié)定加上RCEP，能讓越南的出口產(chǎn)品以更低的關(guān)稅進(jìn)入更大的市場。

麥克拉迪投資咨詢公司的地緣戰(zhàn)略高級顧問史蒂文·奧肯表示，RCEP意義重大，尤其是在簡化貿(mào)易流程和加快整合供應(yīng)鏈等方面。

“長期來看，如果RCEP讓中國—東盟、日本、韓國之間的貿(mào)易關(guān)系更為緊密，這將影響美國融入該地區(qū)經(jīng)濟體系，但是也為如越南等東南亞國家?guī)砀鄼C會。但這可能不會影響中國當(dāng)前的供應(yīng)鏈轉(zhuǎn)移?！笔返傥恼f。

更廉價的進(jìn)口商品

對越南來說，RCEP也會為更廉價的生產(chǎn)原材料進(jìn)口鋪平道路。越南光是在東盟內(nèi)的原材料和生產(chǎn)設(shè)備的年進(jìn)口額就達(dá)到了300億美元。此外，越南貿(mào)易投資部的官方報紙表示，越南對中國和韓國等大型市場有著每年幾百億美元的貿(mào)易逆差。

從RCEP成員國進(jìn)口的原材料在越南加工生產(chǎn)后，出口至其他RCEP國家時，這些原材料將被視作越南原產(chǎn)材料，這使得出口產(chǎn)品可以全部打上“越南制造”的標(biāo)簽，在進(jìn)口國享受更低的關(guān)稅。這些進(jìn)口國往往也是電子產(chǎn)品、零部件、紡織、制鞋等越南強勢產(chǎn)業(yè)的原料出口國，而這些越南產(chǎn)業(yè)每年出口額達(dá)數(shù)百億美元。

“所以，只要越南能為大多數(shù)RCEP成員提供所需的優(yōu)質(zhì)農(nóng)業(yè)、漁業(yè)產(chǎn)品，就能從RCEP中獲益。由于RCEP內(nèi)優(yōu)秀的原產(chǎn)地規(guī)則，越南貨物很容易達(dá)到關(guān)稅削減標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，從而增加越南在RCEP內(nèi)的出口，尤其是面向日本、韓國、澳大利亞、新西蘭的出口?！痹侥腺Q(mào)易投資部的官方報紙表示。

越南皮革、鞋類和手提包協(xié)會副會長潘氏成春表示，協(xié)會的代表產(chǎn)業(yè)將利用RCEP協(xié)定的優(yōu)勢，降低從中國進(jìn)口原材料的成本，從而獲益。雖然越南早已通過中國—東盟自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定，從中國進(jìn)口大量原材料，但越南產(chǎn)品在出口到中國或東盟以外的其他國家時，由于原產(chǎn)地規(guī)則問題，不會被當(dāng)成越南原產(chǎn)。在RCEP框架下，同樣的出口則會被當(dāng)做越南原產(chǎn)，從而在出口到如日本之類的除東盟外RCEP國家時享受到更低的關(guān)稅。

對越南國內(nèi)市場的影響

對越南來說，加入RCEP有利有弊。雖然加入RCEP后越南出口有著良好的增長前景，能帶動越南經(jīng)濟增長，但也有人擔(dān)心RCEP對越南國內(nèi)市場的影響。越南98%的企業(yè)都屬于中小企業(yè)，它們的產(chǎn)品會與其他RCEP產(chǎn)品競爭。

以制鞋業(yè)為例，潘氏成春認(rèn)為中小企業(yè)必須提升競爭力：“（它們）核心競爭力很弱，在現(xiàn)在這個競爭激烈的市場中，不進(jìn)步就只能滅亡。”

“現(xiàn)實就是，中小企業(yè)在行業(yè)中（制鞋業(yè)）占60%，但它們對出口的貢獻(xiàn)很低，只有不到20%。相較而言，越南的外資企業(yè)和本土大公司只占行業(yè)的30%～40%，但它們的出口量占了80%～90%之多。”潘氏成春說。

“但這也算某種優(yōu)勢，能鼓勵越南提升產(chǎn)能。越南在制鞋業(yè)有著許多獨特優(yōu)勢，也是世界第二大鞋類出口國。我們與全球主要市場都建立了長期穩(wěn)定的供應(yīng)鏈，越南的外資企業(yè)絕大部分也是長期投資?！迸耸铣纱赫f道。

她還說：“總體而言，越南制鞋業(yè)的增長潛力依然優(yōu)秀，保持著一定的競爭力，越南在大品牌之間的聲譽也很好，它們還在提供源源不斷的訂單，外資也在持續(xù)投入越南制造業(yè)，至少10～20年內(nèi)不會改變?！?/p>

新加坡美國商會前董事歐坤表示，越南跟大部分RCEP國家比起來有一大優(yōu)勢，那就是越南簽署了另一項貿(mào)易協(xié)定——《全面與進(jìn)步跨太平洋伙伴關(guān)系協(xié)定》（CPTPP）。

歐坤說：“CPTPP也包含高質(zhì)量的數(shù)字貿(mào)易規(guī)定，如果得到全面實行，能進(jìn)一步強化越南的數(shù)字經(jīng)濟，并帶來更多數(shù)字經(jīng)濟領(lǐng)域的機遇，使其成為越南的下一個經(jīng)濟增長點。”

“越南應(yīng)該盡快履行其在CPTPP內(nèi)的承諾，并與新加坡等重要伙伴簽訂新的數(shù)字貿(mào)易協(xié)定，不要滿足于現(xiàn)有協(xié)定。同時從RCEP和CPTPP中受益能讓越南在為經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇打基礎(chǔ)時保持自身的優(yōu)勢地位，使數(shù)字經(jīng)濟帶來的機遇最大化?！睔W坤說道。

·來源：美國之聲

·編譯：謝宗鳴

In what was expected to be an uphill battle， Vietnams containment of the COVID-19 crisis has left little time for recognition on the world stage. While decisive central government response successfully beat back the pandemics viral challenges， authorities are now facing the real and present dangers of climate change. The moment provides an opportunity and imperative to explore renewable energy for less carbon-intensive growth.

The nation knows all too well， that it is among the most vulnerable nations to climate change impacts. From Vietnams long coastline along the East Sea， to landslides in the northern mountains， to rising sea levels in the Mekong Delta， the nations extreme weather events are taking their toll.

“The Earths recent calamities have placed great burdens on the political and socioeconomic life of many developing countries， causing unemployment and poverty， creating instability and exacerbating current conflicts”， said Nguyen Xuan Phuc， President of Vietnam in a United Nations （UN） speech via webinar.

Vietnam recognizes the urgency in supporting the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development， the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change （UNFCCC）， and the Paris Agreement （COP21）.

The World Bank has singled out Vietnam as one of six countries most severely affected by climate change. As such， Vietnam is at a tipping point as it ramps up its ability to meet its energy needs and reduces its reliance on coal-fired power generation.

Vietnams death toll from the pandemic has remained low. In contrast， the nations rising air pollution levels and severe tropical storms have resulted in increased hospitalisations and deaths.

Climate Risks

A 2019 INFORM Risk Index， a global， open-source risk assessment for humanitarian crises and disasters， ranked Vietnam 91 out of 191 countries largely because of the countrys super strong typhoons， storm surges， riverine flooding， coastal erosion， drought and salt water intrusion.

The ocean level has already risen 20 centimetres over the past three decades and may increase by a further 75 centimetres by 2050. This will lead to a flooding of 40% of the rice bowl in the Mekong Delta.

Policy makers are asking themselves what steps or lessons they can apply from their successful combat against COVID-19 toward the climate associated risks. Just as authorities called for a community wide compliance with the closing of borders， masking， and social distancing; the ingrained collectivism among its citizens， allows for a broad and clear messaging about the environmental threats. This may translate into improved management of the nations natural resources.

Few experts dispute that raising the awareness levels of Vietnamese people can and will insure sustainable development of the country. However， available information about the countrys climate situation is limited， unstructured and difficult for the major population to access and understand.

Credit should be given to Vietnams newest eAtlas project. A team of research scientists are making available a series of atlases of the nations climate conditions using multiple images and sources derived from satellites.

“The atlases consist of a number of principal environmental variables including surface temperature， humidity， wind， vegetation index， sea level， ocean current， and waves，” claims Dr Nguyen Dac Da， a post-doctoral oceanography researcher at the University of Miamis Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science.

His team of five， comprised of other oceanographers， a meteorologist and IT expert， is now building a ‘wire grid to deliver climate change views through graphical tools to every corner of the country. Of course， Nguyen admits that collaborations are essential to achieve this goal.

Less Coal， More Renewables

During the pandemic， Vietnamese authorities quickly discovered that social media can be adopted for value-added science related campaigns. The governments next transition step may include the promotion of greener habits and green technology. Simply put， a green economy offers lower carbon use， saves resources， creates jobs， eradicates hunger and reduces environmental risks.

With a population approaching 100 million and annual gross domestic product （GDP） growth expected to rebound to seven percent， Vietnams power generation needs rose from 47，000 megawatts （MW） to over 60，000 MW in 2021 and 129，500 MW by 2030.

Unfortunately， Vietnams consumption of coal continues to rise and grew 75% over the past six years， faster than any country in the world， according to a research paper by the Harvard Kennedy Schools Ash Center on Vietnam. In fact， its coal imports surged in the first half of 2020 to fuel the number of coal-fired power plants.

The nations fast-growing economy has come with major environmental consequences. The fast pace of urbanization， on-going construction， heavy vehicular traffic and industrial production activities， are leaving urban areas like Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City， gasping for air and suffering high levels of respiratory disease.

The crossroads between economic development and environmental protection has resulted in citizen-led vigilance of the countrys conservation and sustainability practices. Climatologists and environmentalists are slowly succeeding in heightening awareness of a green recovery， that is leading to accountability， the mitigation of climate change and the monitoring of industrial pollution.

It helps that the government has issued new policies to encourage the development of renewable energy， set targets for renewable energy and provided production research for eco-driven pilot models， like solar and wind development.

Vietnam knows that it must take the same bold action that was initiated to curb the transmission of COVID-19. Policy planners realise the country has large untapped renewable energy potential for solar and wind.

The adoption of these renewables offers a cleaner environment and puts the country in line to meet its Paris Agreement targets. Should government policy continue to support renewables while making wind and solar better and cheaper， these renewable energy sources can challenge coal as Vietnams biggest electricity source by 2030.

With the world under pressure to set tougher climate targets and the holding of critical climate change talks in November 2021 at the United Nations Climate Change Conference （COP26） in Glasgow， its another opportunity for Vietnam to showcase its leadership in Southeast Asia in its fight to overcome the impacts of future pandemics and climate change.

· Source： The ASEAN Post