網(wǎng)約車新政下網(wǎng)約車平臺與網(wǎng)約車司機的演化博弈分析

雷麗彩，高 尚，蔣 艷

網(wǎng)約車新政下網(wǎng)約車平臺與網(wǎng)約車司機的演化博弈分析

雷麗彩，高 尚，蔣 艷

（湘潭大學商學院，湖南 湘潭 411105）

近年來，網(wǎng)約車等新業(yè)態(tài)的興起給乘客帶來了新體驗，同時也導致新舊矛盾交織以及利益關(guān)系碰撞。本文運用演化博弈理論分析方法，建立了新政實施背景下網(wǎng)約車平臺和司機間的演化博弈模型，并對其博弈行為演化過程及演化穩(wěn)定策略進行探討。理論研究和仿真結(jié)果表明：政府部門對網(wǎng)約車市場的大力調(diào)控可以有效保護網(wǎng)約車平臺“嚴格管理”的積極性，（合法營運,嚴格管理）成為唯一的演化穩(wěn)定策略；但是當政府調(diào)控力度較小時，網(wǎng)約車平臺“嚴格管理”的凈收益小于其“消極管理”的凈收益，使得其“嚴格管理”的積極性降低，從而滋長、縱容網(wǎng)約車司機“非法營運”行為的發(fā)生，（非法營運,消極管理）也可能成為演化博弈的穩(wěn)定策略。要實現(xiàn)網(wǎng)約車平臺“嚴格管理”率和司機“合法營運”率達到理想狀態(tài)并可以長期保持，應(yīng)該加大對策略對（非法營運,消極管理）的識別并給予網(wǎng)約車司機“非法營運”以較高的懲罰，并對網(wǎng)約車平臺“嚴格管理”輔以適當?shù)难a償措施。

網(wǎng)約車運營；網(wǎng)約車新政；演化博弈；演化穩(wěn)定策略

0 引言

隨著全球信息技術(shù)的快速發(fā)展和“互聯(lián)網(wǎng)+”時代的到來，網(wǎng)絡(luò)化潮流正在席卷全世界，以 Airbnb、Uber和滴滴出行為代表的共享經(jīng)濟（Sharing Economy）迅速崛起，使人類生活的各個方面都受到巨大的影響，城市居民的交通出行領(lǐng)域也不例外。在共享經(jīng)濟之風的勁吹下，網(wǎng)絡(luò)約租車（以下簡稱“網(wǎng)約車”）也應(yīng)運而生。網(wǎng)約車，也叫互聯(lián)網(wǎng)專車，在交通運輸部發(fā)布的《網(wǎng)絡(luò)預約出租汽車經(jīng)營服務(wù)管理暫行辦法（征求意見稿）》中被定義為“以互聯(lián)網(wǎng)技術(shù)為依托構(gòu)建服務(wù)平臺，接入符合條件的車輛和駕駛員，通過整合供需信息，提供非巡游的預約出租汽車服務(wù)”[1]。2016年7月28日，交通運輸部聯(lián)合公安部等七部門正式公布了《網(wǎng)絡(luò)預約出租汽車經(jīng)營服務(wù)管理暫行辦法》（以下皆簡稱為“新政”），網(wǎng)約車獲得合法身份；8月1日，滴滴和Uber（中國）宣布合并。新政的出臺以及壟斷巨頭的醞釀?wù)Q生，意味著網(wǎng)約車行業(yè)將面臨更多的行政許可和更少的補貼，同時也將觸發(fā)網(wǎng)約車行業(yè)的利益相關(guān)者（stakeholders）如乘客、司機與網(wǎng)約車平臺以及傳統(tǒng)出租車行業(yè)的新一輪自主博弈。因此，在新政實施背景下研究網(wǎng)約車平臺與網(wǎng)約車司機之間的演化博弈行為，為政府有關(guān)部門制定相應(yīng)的監(jiān)管措施提供更好的決策支持，具有比較重要的現(xiàn)實意義。

網(wǎng)約車從出現(xiàn)伊始，就在全世界各地引發(fā)了媒體和社會大眾的廣泛關(guān)注和爭議，也是學者們討論的熱點問題之一。近年來，國內(nèi)外已有不少學者對于政府監(jiān)管下的網(wǎng)約車安全監(jiān)管及其規(guī)制范式進行了研究[2]：如侯登華在闡述網(wǎng)約車經(jīng)營模式和發(fā)展階段的基礎(chǔ)上，比較分析了新加坡、美國、英國和法國等對網(wǎng)約車的監(jiān)管路徑[3]。周麗霞介紹了Uber的運營模式，提出從準入條件、司機要求、車輛要求、保險服務(wù)和隱私保護等方面借鑒美國對Uber的監(jiān)管經(jīng)驗[4]。羅清和等在總結(jié)西方發(fā)達國家“規(guī)制（Regulation）——放松規(guī)制（Deregulation）——再規(guī)制（Re-regulation）”的經(jīng)驗基礎(chǔ)上，提出了適合我國國情的網(wǎng)約車監(jiān)管路徑選擇[5]。尹貽林和楊旋從博弈論的角度探討了新興移動打車軟件對我國傳統(tǒng)出租車市場均衡的影響[6]。政府對出租車市場的監(jiān)管所帶來的經(jīng)濟效應(yīng)也被廣泛研究[7]，如Cetin和Eryigit通過實證研究表明，政府監(jiān)管提高了出租車市場的牌照價格，導致出租車費上升[8]。Bengtsson通過試驗研究表明有效的政府管制能提高效率，從而實現(xiàn)帕累托改進[9]。

以上研究從理論探討和案例分析角度為網(wǎng)約車的運營監(jiān)管實踐提供了可資借鑒的方法和建議，但是這些研究大多停留在定性的描述和推理階段，關(guān)于網(wǎng)約車涉及的多元利益相關(guān)者之間博弈關(guān)系的研究尚未引起足夠的關(guān)注。雖然演化博弈理論被廣泛應(yīng)用到社會經(jīng)濟和管理領(lǐng)域的各類實際問題中[10]，如地方政府與企業(yè)的高耗能產(chǎn)業(yè)退出機制[11]，我國土地囤積與土地監(jiān)察的困境[12]，碳減排標簽政策[13]，雙寡頭再制造的進入決策[14]，研發(fā)外包決策[15]，重大突發(fā)事件的防控措施[16]，合作溢出的機會主義行為[17]，出行方式選擇行為[18]，逆向拍賣的分組評標行為[19]，食品供應(yīng)商與制造商的質(zhì)量投入博弈[20]，技術(shù)創(chuàng)新模式選擇[21,22]，創(chuàng)新中小企業(yè)與商業(yè)銀行的信貸博弈[23]，供應(yīng)商和制造商的綠色采購博弈[24]，煤礦安全監(jiān)管博弈[25,26]，石油市場支配地位博弈[27]，網(wǎng)絡(luò)化智能電網(wǎng)的需求側(cè)管控博弈[28]以及農(nóng)民創(chuàng)業(yè)者供給村莊公共品的行為[29]]等，將該理論應(yīng)用于電子商務(wù)交易行為的研究雖然也取得了一定的成果[30-32]，但是鮮有關(guān)于網(wǎng)約車市場利益相關(guān)者之間演化博弈行為的研究。而網(wǎng)約車市場是一個典型的雙邊市場，市場中形成了一個以網(wǎng)約車平臺為中介，聯(lián)結(jié)司機和乘客的三位一體的商業(yè)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)，三者相互依賴，相互影響。

因此，在新政實施和行業(yè)壟斷巨頭醞釀?wù)Q生的背景下，網(wǎng)約車平臺和網(wǎng)約車司機會發(fā)生怎樣的自主博弈行為呢？在這一過程中，影響雙方博弈的均衡結(jié)果和穩(wěn)定性的因素有哪些？為了回答上述問題，本文嘗試借助演化博弈理論，深入研究新政出臺背景下網(wǎng)約車平臺和網(wǎng)約車司機之間的行為演化關(guān)系，在政府的監(jiān)管調(diào)控下，分析影響演化博弈均衡結(jié)果的關(guān)鍵因素，為政府制定科學合理的網(wǎng)約車安全監(jiān)管機制提供借鑒和參考。

1 新政背景下網(wǎng)約車平臺與網(wǎng)約車司機的演化博弈模型

新政的出臺盡管使網(wǎng)約車獲得了“合法身份”，但同時也意味著網(wǎng)約車行業(yè)將面臨更多的行政許可和更少的補貼，對于網(wǎng)約車平臺和網(wǎng)約車司機也提出了更嚴格的要求。一方面，新政要求網(wǎng)約車平臺按照相關(guān)規(guī)定對網(wǎng)約車司機進行嚴格監(jiān)管，增加了網(wǎng)約車平臺的運營成本；另一方面對于網(wǎng)約車司機而言，由于網(wǎng)約車所具有的“共享經(jīng)濟”本質(zhì)，網(wǎng)約車司機本不用像巡游出租車司機一樣面對嚴格的準入管制，也不需要向出租車公司繳納“份子錢”，由此吸引了大批嘗鮮者，然而，新政對網(wǎng)約車司機提出的更加嚴格的監(jiān)管和限制條件，使得網(wǎng)約車司機還沒來得及咀嚼分享經(jīng)濟的成果，就被推向去與留的十字路口。

1.1 網(wǎng)約車平臺與網(wǎng)約車司機博弈模型建立

由此建立網(wǎng)約車平臺和網(wǎng)約車司機之間博弈的支付矩陣如表1所示。

表1 新政背景下網(wǎng)約車平臺與網(wǎng)約車司機博弈的支付矩陣

1.2 博弈模型的均衡解

根據(jù)支付矩陣，可以算出在新政實施的背景下以及政府有關(guān)部門的管制下，網(wǎng)約車司機的期望收益為：

則網(wǎng)約車司機的復制動態(tài)方程為：

同理，在新政實施的背景下以及政府有關(guān)部門的管制下，網(wǎng)約車平臺的期望收益為：

則網(wǎng)約車平臺的復制動態(tài)方程為：

2 模型演化動態(tài)的策略穩(wěn)定性分析

2.1 情形①：網(wǎng)約車平臺“嚴格管理”的凈收益大于其“消極管理”的凈收益的穩(wěn)定性分析

表2 情形①時網(wǎng)約車平臺與網(wǎng)約車司機之間演化博弈的穩(wěn)定性分析

圖1 情形①時網(wǎng)約車平臺與網(wǎng)約車司機之間演化博弈的復制動態(tài)相位圖

Figure 1 Copying dynamic phase diagram of evolutionary game between Internet-chauffeured-car platform and internet-chauffeured-car driver in case ①

2.2 網(wǎng)約車平臺“嚴格管理”的凈收益小于其“消極管理”收益時的穩(wěn)定性分析

2.2.1情形②的策略穩(wěn)定性分析

表3 情形②時網(wǎng)約車平臺與網(wǎng)約車司機之間演化博弈的穩(wěn)定性分析

圖2 情形②時網(wǎng)約車平臺與網(wǎng)約車司機之間演化博弈的復制動態(tài)相位圖

Figure 2 Copying dynamic phase diagram of evolutionary game between net car platform and net car driver in case ②

2.2.2情形③的策略穩(wěn)定性分析

表4 情形③時網(wǎng)約車平臺與網(wǎng)約車司機之間演化博弈的穩(wěn)定性分析

圖3 情形②時網(wǎng)約車平臺與網(wǎng)約車司機之間演化博弈的復制動態(tài)相位圖

Figure 3 Copying dynamic phase diagram of evolutionary game between internet-chauffeured-car platform and internet-chauffeured-car driver in case ②

3 仿真算例

圖4 網(wǎng)約車平臺與網(wǎng)約車司機之間演化博弈的策略演化路徑圖

Figure 4 Strategy evolution path chart of evolutionary game between internet-chauffeured-car platform and internet-chauffeured-car driver

4 結(jié)論與建議

在政府監(jiān)管部門的管制下，網(wǎng)約車平臺與網(wǎng)約車司機的演化博弈，面臨不同情況的初始條件會有不同的演化穩(wěn)定策略，為了使網(wǎng)約車行業(yè)朝著一個良好的發(fā)展態(tài)勢，針對嚴格管理與消極管理的網(wǎng)約車平臺的凈收益差異，政府監(jiān)管部門需要改變對網(wǎng)約車平臺的補償力度和懲罰力度，提高對網(wǎng)約車平臺的監(jiān)管，使網(wǎng)約車平臺更能積極主動的對網(wǎng)約車司機進行嚴格管理，從而引導網(wǎng)約車司機正常營運。

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Evolutionary game analysis of car-hailing industry between platforms and drivers based on new policies of car-hailing

LEI Licai, GAO Shang, JIANG Yan

(Business School, Xiangtan University, Xiangtan 411105, China)

With the mushroomed growth of the sharing economy, platform economics represented by Airbnb, Uber, and Didi, has greatly affected all aspects of human life, especially in the area of urban residents' travel. Under the circumstance, car-hailing service also came into being. In the context of the rapid development of global information technology and the advent of the "Internet +" era, the demand for China's car-hailing market is growing. Moreover, a large number of stakeholders, such as car-hailing platforms, passengers, drivers, and traditional taxi industries are involved in the car-hailing industry. According to the behavioral decision theory, each person wants to be able to maximize its revenue, which will inevitably lead to conflicts among stakeholders. Consequently, it is of great significance to introduce and apply the control of the government to the car-hailing market. To a certain extent, the reinforcement of control will promote the healthy development of the car-hailing market.

As the promulgation of car-hailing regulation and the birth of industrial monopoly giants, the car-hailing market will face more administrative licensing and fewer subsidies. In the meanwhile, a new round of the independent game is triggered among the stakeholders. Multiple stakeholders of the car-hailing market are faced with new opportunities and challenges. The requirements for car-hailing platforms and drivers are becoming more stringent. Therefore, it is necessary to study the selection behavior of evolutionary game between car-hailing platforms and drivers, which will provide a useful reference for the government to play a regulatory role in maintaining the sustainable development of car-hailing service.

In the first part, according to the analytical method of evolutionary game theory, the evolutionary game model between car-hailing platforms and drivers is proposed, and a payoff matrix is established. On this foundation, the replicator dynamic equations are used to depict the evolutionary path of car-hailing platforms’ and drivers’ selection behavior under the control of the government. In the second part, based on the replicator dynamic equations, we consider different controls of the government over the car-hailing service to calculate the equilibrium point. We take advantage of the Jacobin matrix to analyze the stability of the equilibrium point and obtain the dynamical diagram of the evolutionary game and the evolutionarily stable strategy. In the third part, we conduct the simulation experiments of the evolutionary game mode between the car-hailing platforms and drivers，and the dynamical route of the evolutionary game is presented. Finally, the advice on government control of the car-hailing market is put forward in terms of the evolutionary game model results.

Theoretical research and simulation results indicate that the ratio of “strict management” for car-hailing platforms and the ratio of “l(fā)egal operation” for drivers achieve and maintain perfect condition, which depends on the tremendous control of the government. When the tremendous control is exerted over the car-hailing market, the net income of the “strict management” is more than that of the “l(fā)oose management” for the car-hailing platforms, which turns out that the only evolutionarily stable strategy is “Legal Operation, Strict Management,” which is what we have expected. Contrarily, when the government exerts the less control, the evolutionarily stable strategy may be “Illegal Operation, Loose Management” for lack of effective government regulation. The game falls into the prisoner’s dilemma, which goes against the sustainable development for the car-hailing industry. Based on the simulation experiments, the strategy of “Illegal Operation, Loose Management” should be identified. Simultaneously, it is necessary to impose a greater penalty on drivers with “illegal operation” and take appropriate compensation measures for car-hailing platforms with “strict management”，which will make the car-hailing platforms more active to rigidly manage drivers, and guide the “l(fā)egal operation.”

Car-hailing service; New policies of car-hailing; Evolutionary game; Evolutionary stable strategy

2017-06-03

2017-09-15

Supported by the Ministry of Education Layout Foundation of Humanities and Social Science (19YJA630030), the Excellent Youth Project of Educational Commission of Hunan Province (17B267) and the Social Science Foundation of Hunan Province (17YBA369)

F570

A

1004-6062(2020)01-0055-008

10.13587/j.cnki.jieem.2020.01.007

2017-06-03

2017-09-15

教育部人文社會科學規(guī)劃基金資助項目（19YJA630030）；湖南省教育廳優(yōu)秀青年項目（17B267）；湖南省社科基金資助項目（17YBA369）

雷麗彩（1984—），女，湖南桂陽人；湘潭大學商學院副教授，南京大學圖書情報與檔案管理博士后；主要從事電子商務(wù)運營模式、行為決策理論及其應(yīng)用方面的研究。

中文編輯：杜 健；英文編輯：Charlie C. Chen