基于空間引力模型的土地儲(chǔ)備成本收益研究

郭茹 劉新平

摘要：以克拉瑪依市主城區(qū)為研究區(qū)，將其劃分為14個(gè)土地儲(chǔ)備潛力評(píng)價(jià)區(qū)，構(gòu)建土地儲(chǔ)備成本和收益科目計(jì)算體系，引入圈層理論與空間引力模型對(duì)土地儲(chǔ)備成本和收益進(jìn)行分析。結(jié)果表明，克拉瑪依市區(qū)土地儲(chǔ)備總成本為247 241.73萬(wàn)元，平均單位面積土地儲(chǔ)備成本355.86萬(wàn)元/hm2，土地預(yù)期總收益為213 546.92萬(wàn)元，平均單位面積土地儲(chǔ)備收益307.36萬(wàn)元/hm2。一級(jí)圈層土地儲(chǔ)備成本每公頃上漲1萬(wàn)元，將帶動(dòng)二級(jí)圈層土地儲(chǔ)備成本平均每公頃增加0.46萬(wàn)元，單位空間距離上的波動(dòng)衰減量為0.27萬(wàn)元/km;二級(jí)圈層與三級(jí)圈層單位空間距離上的波動(dòng)衰減量為0.19萬(wàn)元/km。一級(jí)圈層土地儲(chǔ)備收益每公頃增加1萬(wàn)元，對(duì)二級(jí)圈層黑油山片區(qū)和風(fēng)華片區(qū)波動(dòng)引力值達(dá)到0.62萬(wàn)～0.64萬(wàn)元，衰減幅度達(dá)到36%，引力衰減量為0.19萬(wàn)元/km;一三級(jí)圈層與二三級(jí)圈層引力衰減幅度分別為89%和90%，衰減力量相當(dāng)。土地儲(chǔ)備成本隨著城市外擴(kuò)呈遞減趨勢(shì)，克拉瑪依市當(dāng)前應(yīng)合理配置土地儲(chǔ)備財(cái)政資金，科學(xué)布局土地儲(chǔ)備規(guī)劃規(guī)模，主要選取市場(chǎng)需求較熱、基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施配備較完善、土地儲(chǔ)備成本較低的土地進(jìn)行儲(chǔ)備，并在制度范圍內(nèi)突破融資渠道。

關(guān)鍵詞：土地儲(chǔ)備;成本收益;空間引力;克拉瑪依市

中圖分類號(hào)：F301.2? ? ? ? ?文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)識(shí)碼：A

文章編號(hào)：0439-8114（2019）09-0142-07

DOI：10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2019.09.034? ? ? ? ? ?開放科學(xué)（資源服務(wù)）標(biāo)識(shí)碼（OSID）：

Abstract： Taking the main city of Karamay as the research area， which is divided into 14 land reserve potential evaluation areas， the land reserve cost and income is analyzed by constructing the land reserve cost and income account calculation system， and introducing the circle theory and space gravity model. The results show that the total cost of land reserve in Karamay city is 2，472，417，300 yuan; the average land area cost per unit area is 3，558，600 yuan/hm2; the total expected land income is 2，135，649，200 yuan; and the average unit area land reserve income is 3，073，600 yuan/hm2. When the land storage and storage cost of the first-level circle increase by 10，000 yuan/hm2， it will increase the average cost of land storage and storage in the second-level circle by 4 600 yuan/hm2; and the fluctuation of the unit space distance is 2 700 yuan/km. The fluctuation of the unit space between the second layer and the third layer is 1 900 yuan/km. The wave gravitational attraction value of the Heiyoushan area and Fenghua area of the second layer is 6 200～6 400 yuan; the attenuation amplitude is 36%; and the gravitation attenuation is 1 900 yuan/km. The gravitational forces attenuation amplitudes of the first-three level and second-third are 89% and 90%， respectively; and the attenuation power is equivalent. The cost of land storage and storage will decrease with the expansion of the city. Karamay city should rationally allocate land reserve financial funds， scientifically plan the scale of land reserve planning， mainly select land with hot market demand， better infrastructure and low land acquisition and storage， and break through financing channels within the system.

Key words： land reserve; cost and income; spatial attraction; Karamay