Empirical Analysis of Binary Logistic Model for the Influencing Factors of the Chinese Urban and Rural Residents'Woolen Products Consumption—Based on Questionnaires of 513 Urban and Rural Residents in 16 Provinces

ZHANG Ying(張瑩)，XIAO Hai－feng(肖海峰)，WANG Bei－bei(王貝貝)

1 College of Economics and Management，China Agriculture University，Beijing 100083，China

2 Research Center for Rural Economy Ministry of Agriculture of China，Beijing 100810，China

Empirical Analysis of Binary Logistic Model for the Influencing Factors of the Chinese Urban and Rural Residents'Woolen Products Consumption—Based on Questionnaires of 513 Urban and Rural Residents in 16 Provinces

ZHANG Ying(張瑩)1，2*，XIAO Hai－feng(肖海峰)2，WANG Bei－bei(王貝貝)2

1 College of Economics and Management，China Agriculture University，Beijing 100083，China

2 Research Center for Rural Economy Ministry of Agriculture of China，Beijing 100810，China

Consum ption of woolen products is the last link of wool industry chain，and it concernswhether the value ofwoolen products can be realized smoothly．Based on 513 questionnaires，it uses descriptive statistical analysis and binary logistic model to analyze the consumption and influencing factors of woolen products．The results indicated that residents in the m iddle region were more inclined to purchasewoolen sweater compared to the residents in the east region．Urban residentsweremore inclined to purchase woolen sweater compared to the rural residents．Personal income，satisfaction degree of quality，and style have significant positive im pact on whether residents purchase woolen sweater，and purchasing quantity of cotton sweater has significant negative im pact on whether residents purchase woolen sweater．

urban and rural residents;woolen products;consumption; influencing factors

Introduction

With the continuous development of our country's wool processing industry，different kinds of woolen products have been made，such as woolen sweater，coat，western－style clothes，knits，scarf，gloves，cap，com forter，blanket，and carpet，etc.As the terminal of the wool industrial chain，consumption of woolen products affects not only the market share and benefit of enterprises，but also the healthy development of the whole wool industry.

At present，research literatures about consumption of woolen productsmainly concentrate upon consumer preference，demand and evaluation，consumption trend，and product value innovation.On one hand，Bian and Xu pointed out Chinese consumer preference for woolen sweater based on 1866 questionnaires［1］.Liao analyzed the customer evaluation criteria and satisfaction of the woolen sweater［2］.Zuo and Li analyzed the demand for woolen sweater of them iddle－aged and the old people in North China［3］.Ji pointed out the main factors to form sensual images and found out the perceptual demand of female knitted outer wears of women consumer groups through questionnaires of the women aged among 20－45 on sensual evaluation of knitted outer wears［4］.Foreign scholars mainly focus on ethical aspects of wool apparel，consumer ethnocentricity，and preferences forwool products by country of origin and manufacture，and their preference for sustainable woolen products，such as Peterson etal．［5］，Hustvedt etal．［6］，Sneddon et al．［7］，Bernard et al.［8］On the other hand，Chen and Wan analyzed sensibility consumption of woolen sweater［9］.Meng analyzed the consumption orientation of wool and woolen clothing［10］.Shen et al．worked out a personality dimension scale model of knitted woolen sweater in order to accurately convey the product style positioning through refine product structure and clear brand personality［11］.Chen and Li stated customer value ofwoolen and cashmere sweater，and they pointed out that technological innovation of enterprise should be combined with product value innovation［12］.Sneddon et al．thought that the wool industry had responded to the decline in wool's share of the textile market with innovations in production，processing and marketing that aimed at increasing consumer demand for wool apparel，and they explored consumers'beliefs about wool apparel.The findings indicated that both positive and negative perceptions of garment attributes were related to perceive garment value［13］.

Asmentioned above，it is known that most of research literatures take woolen sweater as the research object，research area is given priority to the local area，and research method is mainly used by descriptive statistical analysis.Few research literatures use the method of econometric analysis.Based on questionnaires of urban and rural residents in 16 provinces，this paper firstly analyzes the consumption condition of woolen products from the perspective of different types of residents; secondly，it builds binary logistic model to analyze the factors that influence the consum ing behavior of residents aboutwoolen products and puts forward some countermeasures;finally，it sums up some conclusions.

1 Design and Methodology

1．1 Samp le selection

In order to know the nationw ide consumption status of woolen products，Liaoning，Hebei，Jiangsu，Zhejiang，Shandong provinces and Beijing in eastern region，Jilin，Shanxi，Anhui，Henan，Hunan provinces in central region，Sichuan，Guangxi，and Gansu provinces，Sinkiang，and Inner Mongolia in western region are selected as sample provinces in accordance with the level of econom ic development among regions in the whole nation.The gross of samples is 543，including 312 urban residents and 201 rural residents.Finally，valid samples is 513 after getting rid of 30 void and illogical questionnaires，effective rate of samples is 94.48%.

1．2 Survey contents

Contents of questionnaire include four parts:partone is the basic condition of interviewee，including gender，age，resident type，degree of education，income，profession，etc.;part two is consumer buying behavior，including purchases，brand，time and place，etc.;part three is consumer preference，including texture preference，wool content preference，accepted price，and factors to considerwhen buying woolen sweater;part four is consumer evaluation，including price evaluation and satisfaction degree of quality，color，style，com fort，and warm th retention property of woolen sweater.

1．3 Research method

1．3．1 Descriptive statistical analysis

Descriptive statistical analysis is used to analyze the consumption status of woolen products of urban and rural residents in 2012.It analyzes from six angles:resident type，gender，age，income，degree of education，and region.

1．3．2 Econometric analysis—binary logisticmodel

As the main type of woolen products，woolen sweater is w idespread in the clothing consumption of urban and rural residents.According to research data，it can be known that 62.25%of urban and rural residents had purchased woolen sweater in 2012，consumption quantity of woolen sweater accounted for 43.31%of the total woolen products，and consumption spending of woolen sweater accounted for 44.38%.So，woolen sweater is taken for example to analyze factors that influence consumer behavior of buying woolen products of urban and rural residents in China.

When it analyzes the influencing factors that influence consumer behavior of buying woolen sweater，explained variable is that urban and rural residents whether buy woolen sweater or not.When urban and rural residents buy woolen sweater，the explained variable is assigned 1，if not，the explained variable is assigned 0.Assignment of explained variable is discrete，and the two types are ordering relations，so this paper builds binary logisticmodel.

where e is natural logarithm.

The steps about linear transformation to logistic model are as follows.

(1)The left and right sides of Eq.(1)aremultiplied by (1+e－Zi)at the same time，and it can get( 1+e－Zi)Pi=1．

(2)Both sides are divided by Pi，thenminus1，it can getwhichmeans

(3)During natural logarithm processing of equation，it can get Zi=

(4)According to the definition formulas of，it can be known that

By adding explanatory variables and error term，it can get formula to analyze factors that influence consumption behavior of urban and rural residents of woolen sweater，just like below:

where Piis the probability thatdependentvariable is1－urban and rural residents have purchased woolen sweater;Xiare explanatory variables，and there have been set 15 variables，such as gender，age，resident type，degree of education，income，price of woolen sweater，satisfaction degree of quality，color，style，com fort，and warm th，purchase of cotton sweater，purchase of chemical fiber sweater，and region dummy variable;βiis the coefficient to estimate of Xi;β0is intercept term.

Definition，assignment scope，and expected direction of explanatory variables are shown in Table 1.

Table 1 Explanatory variable definition and data assignment explanation

2 Results and Discussion

2．1 The consum ption status of woolen products

2．1．1 Different resident types

From Table 2，it has been observed that87.22%of urban interviewee had purchased woolen products in 2012，per capita purchase is 2.53 pieces;76.50%of rural interviewee had purchased woolen products in 2012，per capita purchase is1.77 piece;per capita purchase and spending of urban resident respectively are 1.43 times and 2.65 times than those of rural residents.By this token，most of urban and rural residents had purchased woolen products in 2012，but per capita purchase and spending of urban residents both are higher than those of rural residents.

Table 2 Comparison of woolen products consumption among residents of different types in 2012

2．1．2 Different gender

From Table 2，it can be observed that 84.34%of female interviewee had purchased woolen products in 2012，per capita purchase is 2.54 pieces;81.47%of male interviewee had purchased woolen products in 2012，per capita purchase is1.87 pieces;per capita purchase and spending of female respectively are 1.36 times and 1.39 times than those of male.That is to say，mostofmale and female had purchased woolen products in 2012，but per capita purchase and spending of female both are higher than those of male，female consumer market has tremendous potential.

2．1．3 Different age

From Table 2，it can be shown that 81.46%of young interviewee had purchased woolen products in 2012，and per capita purchase and spending of theirs both are the highest，respectively are 2.39 pieces and 1182.92yuan;85.15%of middle－aged interviewee had purchased woolen products in 2012，per capita purchase and spending respectively less7.53% and 9.04%than those of the youth.It seems that the ratio of purchasing woolen products of the m iddle－aged is the highest，but their per capita purchase and spending are less than those of the youth，the purchasing power of the youth cannot be ignored.

2．1．4 Different income

From Table2，it can be known thatper capita purchase and spending of low－income residents both are the lowest，respectively are 1.38 pieces and 217.50 yuan;per capita purchase and spending of high－income residents both are the highest，respectively are 2.56 pieces and 1600.17 yuan.So，it is indicated that the higher the income level，the greater the per capita purchase and spending.

2．1．5 Different degree of education

From Table 2，it can be shown that per capita purchase and spending of the high－degree of education is the highest，respectively are 2.68 pieces and 1542.68 yuan.The consumption of woolen products is positively correlated with degree of education of resident－self.

2．1．6 Different region

From Table 2，it can be observed that the per capita spending of residents in eastern region is highest，514.58 yuan，central region is lowest，about 433.24 yuan，but per capita purchase of theirs is highest，just1 piece.

There is a“gaping gap”in the different provinces about per capita purchase and spending.Specifically speaking，it can be known that per capita purchase in Beijing is the highest，it is 3.39 pieces，Jiangsu province is the lowest，is1.15 pieces;per capita spending in Shanxi province is the highest，about 2942.11yuan，Gansu province is the lowest，only is 315.50 yuan(concrete content can be observed in Table 3).It appears that the consumption of woolen products is related to multiple factors，such as regional condition，econom ic level，dressing concept of the local residents，etc.

Table 3 Woolen products consumption condition among residents in different provinces and cities in 2012

2．2 Factors that influence the consumer behavior of woolen sweater

2．2．1 Results and integral analysis

Binary logistic regression estimation of Eviews 6.0 Software is adopted to estimate the created logistic model.The results are shown in Table 4.According to LR=62.975 4，Probability(LR Statistic)=0.000 0，it can be known significance level of equation is relatively high.Judging from Z－ statistic and Prob.，six indexes pass the significance testing，including resident type，income，satisfaction degree of quality and style，purchase of cotton sweater and region dummy variable(eastern)，and they can explain dependent variable preferably;gender，age，degree of education，woolen sweater price，satisfaction degree of color，com fort and warm th retention，and purchase of chem ical fiber sweater haven't influence on residentswhether buy woolen sweater or not.

Table 4 Results of logisticmodel estimation

2．2．2 Concrete analysis

(1)From Table 5，it can be observed that resident type has significant positive influence on if residents buy woolen sweater under the significance level of 5%.That is to say，urban residents are inclined to buy woolen sweater compared with rural residents.The reasons lie in two aspects:on the one hand，the disposable personal income and consumption level of urban residents are higher than rural residents，and they have less restricted by income than rural residents when they buy woolen sweater(according to China statistical yearbook，per capita annual disposable income of urban households is 3.03 times than rural households in 2013，and per capita annual cash consumption expenditure on clothing is 4.35 times);on the other hand，the style and kind of woolen sweater and purchase place and channel in the city aremore than country due to the economic development level.Thus，urban residents havemore possibility to buy woolen sweater.

Table 5 Results of logistic model estimation.

(2)From Table 5，it can be known that income has significant positive influence on whether residents buy woolen sweater or not under the significance level of 5%.Thatmeans themore personal income，the higher possibility to buy woolen sweater.The possible explanation is that people who getmore income often have less price sensitive of woolen sweater，and they pay more attention on nature and warm th.Thus they are willing to spend money on buying woolen sweater.

(3)From Table 5，it can be seen that satisfaction degree of quality has positively influence on buying behavior under the significance level of 1%.Quality is one of the three considerations of interviewee when buying woolen products according to the research data，the other two is personal income and price.This because woolen sweater hasn't price advantage， only when the residents feel the quality of woolen sweater satisfied and good value formoney，they could buy them.

(4)From Table 5，it can be observed that satisfaction degree of style also has positively influence on buying behavior under the significance levelof1%.Themain reason is thatwith the development of the society，dressing concept of people also has changed.The youth pursue fashion and individuation in wearing.The elderly also think clothing is not only to be wear com fortable and fit，but also fashionable and attractive.Thus，the satisfaction degree of style has positively influence on buying behavior.

(5)From Table 5，it can be shown that purchase of cotton sweater has negative impact on whether residents buy woolen sweater or not.Themore purchase of cotton sweater，the lowerpossibility of buying woolen sweater.This can be explained that cotton and wool both are natural fiber，and both have pure natural and com fort spinning characters，so cotton products becomemain competitive products.Additionally，average price of the cotton sweater and woolen sweater respectively are 178.09 yuan and 441.83 yuan according to the research data. The refore，cotton sweater has price advantage compared with woolen sweater.Purchase of the same type costume is limited，so the more purchase of buying cotton sweater，the lower possibility of buying woolen sweater.

(6)From Table 5，it can be seen that the possibility of buying woolen sweater of residents in eastern region is lower compared with residents in central region.Statistical analysis of research data also verifies this result:71.28%of residents in central region had purchased woolen sweater in 2012，per capita purchase is 1 piece;58.95%of residents in eastern region had purchased woolen sweater in 2012，per capita purchase is 0.94 pieces.Thismaybe because that with vigorous implementation of national strategy of promoting the rise of the central region，the economic development is continuous and stable in central region and disposable personal income of residents is increasing，they are inclined to buy woolen sweater that can manifest taste and grade to embody the improvement of living standard.

As mentioned above，in order to further stimulate consumption of woolen products for promoting the development of the wool industry，the paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions as follows.

Firstly，it needs to initiate the consumption concept of green fiber and improve the purchasing power of woolen products of urban residents.To be specific，it should increase the power of propaganda，and strengthen the cognition about natural advantages of woolen products，such as limpness，hygroscopicity，permeability，heat－insulated property，etc.，and change the traditional view of consumer that woolen products are uneasy－caring and easy－pilling and guide consumer to choose woolen products step by step.

Secondly，it should perfect the style and color assortment formeet the demand of residents at all levels，especially we need to lay emphasis on female and young consumer market. According to the research，23.48%of interviewees are not satisfied with style of woolen products，and 14.58%of interviewees are dissatisfied with color.The color of domestic woolen products is relatively single and design is conservative and old－fashioned at present.So，it is necessary to pay close attention to the international fashion trends in order to improve the style and color assortment of domestic woolen products.

Thirdly，the quality and grade of woolen products should be improved for stimulating the demand of high－income residents in China.According to the research，it can be known that urban and rural residents incline to pay more money for higher quality products when their income ranking gets to the high level.But the currentwool processingmarket is in amess and the quality of products are mixed，which lead to people's demand for high quality woolen products cannot be fully meet. The refore，it should standardize the wool processing market，and improve quality and grade of woolen products to inspire consumption needs of those high－income people on the premise of steadying middle－income people's purchasing power in our country.

Finally，enterprises should increase research input and bring in foreign advanced technology to improve available ability of wool and open up new field of wool application.On the one hand，enterprises should attach importance to the research and development input，exploit the new woolen products，which is green process and in favor of environmental protection;on the other hand，it is also vital to keep awatchful eye on international study trend of developing wool industry， bring in foreign advanced craft and technology positively in order to increase the availability of wool and open up its application of new fields.

3 Conclusions

In accordance with survey data about urban and rural residents in 16 provinces，main conclusions about the woolen products consumption status and influencing factors of Chinese residents are as follows:per capita purchase and spending of urban residents both are higher than those of rural residents，and urban residents are inclined to buy woolen sweater compared with rural residents;per capita purchase and spending of female both are higher than those ofmale，female consumermarkethas exploring potential;per capita purchase and spending of the youth both are higher than those of themiddle－aged and the old people，and the consumermarketof the youth group deserves to be further exploited;the higher income level and degree of education，themore per capita purchase and spending of woolen products;per capita spending in eastern region is highest，and central region is lowest，but their per capita purchase is highest，possibility of buying woolen sweater of residents in eastern region is lower compared with residents in central region; income，satisfaction degree of quality and style have significant positive influence on whether residents buy woolen sweater or not，purchase of cotton sweater have significant negative influence.

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F768.1

A

1672－5220(2015)04－0695－05

date:2014－05－11

Industrial Economy Research of NationalWool and Cashmere Industry Technology System，China(No.CARS－40－20)

*Correspondence should be addressed to ZHANG Ying，E－mail:applebeth@163.com