中美戰(zhàn)略互疑：解析與應(yīng)對

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北京大學(xué)國際關(guān)系學(xué)院院長王緝思，美國布魯金斯學(xué)會約翰 · 桑頓中國中心主任李侃如 （Kenneth Lieberthal） 作為合作者，于2012年3月共同發(fā)表了《中美戰(zhàn)略互疑：解析與應(yīng)對》報告。報告由兩位作者各自敘述本國政府的觀點，隨后共同撰寫后續(xù)的分析和建議。

短文摘選就“中國為什么不信任美國”中方觀點中的“經(jīng)濟問題”章節(jié)。

In recent years， there have been accumulated Chinese misgivings that the U.S. is using China-U.S. economic frictions as a scapegoat for American economic failures. U.S. trade protectionism is widely viewed in China as a sign of American losses in international competition. In Chinese eyes， America’s trade deficit with China is largely caused by its export controls resulting from political prejudices against China. Meanwhile， the United States is seen as setting up numerous political obstacles for Chinese companies to invest in America and merge with or acquire American companies. American pressures on China to revalue its currency are generally viewed as a high-handed， unreasonable way to serve the interests of the United States at the expense of China’s economy and of Chinese laborers.

最近幾年，越來越多的中國人有這樣一種疑慮，即美國正在利用中美經(jīng)濟摩擦作為美國經(jīng)濟失敗的替罪羊。美國貿(mào)易保護主義在中國被廣泛視為美國在國際競爭中失利的象征。在中國人看來，美國與中國的貿(mào)易逆差在很大程度上是其對華政治偏見導(dǎo)致對華出口管制造成的。同時，中國也注意到美國正在給在美投資和合并或兼并美國公司的中國企業(yè)設(shè)置無數(shù)政治障礙。美國迫使中國人民幣升值的行為，一般被看成是以中國經(jīng)濟和中國勞動力為代價、服務(wù)于美國利益的一種專橫、不講理的手段。

Since the beginning of the global financial crisis， China’s huge holdings of U.S. treasury bonds have become a more controversial domestic political issue. Due to the devaluation of U.S. dollar， the fluctuations of the U.S. financial markets， and the August 2011 debt ceiling battle， there are increased doubts about the necessity and wisdom of keeping so large a portion of Chinese savings in the United States. “Kidnapping，” “cheating，” “stealing，” “plundering，” and “irresponsible” are but a few of the words the Chinese are using to express their mistrust of U.S. debt instruments. To be sure， China’s economic and political leaders continue to see few alternatives to purchasing American debt instruments. But Beijing’s domestic political circumstances make this a very difficult issue for any who want to defend the decisions to hold or increase those financial assets.

從全球性經(jīng)濟危機開始之時，中國便大量持有美國國債，這一舉措已經(jīng)成為越來越有爭議的國內(nèi)政治問題。由于美元貶值、美國金融市場波動以及 2011 年 8 月出現(xiàn)的債務(wù)上限爭斗，越來越多的人開始質(zhì)疑是否有必要把如此大量的中國金融儲備存放在美國，這樣做是否明智。“綁架”、“欺騙”、“盜竊”、“掠奪”和“不負責任”只是中國人用來表述他們不信任美國債務(wù)證券的詞匯中的幾個。

With a weakened U.S. dollar in the global financial markets， Beijing has had more doubts about the sustainability of the U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency and feels some urgency to internationalize the Renminbi. At the same time， China also suspects that the United States will create obstacles to the RMB’s becoming an international currency. Many believe that U.S. global hegemony is sustained essentially by the dominance of the U.S. dollar， and see the United States as having in the past sought to constrain the rise of the Euro. The Obama administration’s recent plans to finalize and eventually expand the Trans-Pacific Partnership （TPP） is viewed in Beijing as an effort to compete with China’s growing economic ties with other Asian economies and limit the circulation of the RMB.

可以確定的是，對于中國經(jīng)濟和政治領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人來說，除購買美國的債務(wù)證券之外，其他備選很少。但是對于那些為購買或增持美國金融財產(chǎn)的決定做辯護的人來說，北京的國內(nèi)政治環(huán)境使他們的處境相當難堪。隨著美元在國際金融市場地位的削弱，北京越來越懷疑美元作為全球儲備貨幣的持續(xù)性，并且增強了實現(xiàn)人民幣國際化的緊迫感。與此同時，中國也懷疑美國將為人民幣成為國際貨幣制造障礙。很多人相信美國的全球霸權(quán)主要是依靠美元的統(tǒng)治地位才得以維持，并且認為美國在過去曾試圖限制歐元地位的上升。最近，奧巴馬政府計劃最終確定并擴大跨太平洋伙伴關(guān)系（TPP），此舉在北京看來是企圖同中國與亞洲其他經(jīng)濟體之間不斷壯大的經(jīng)濟關(guān)系展開競爭，并限制人民幣的流通。

Kenneth Lieberthal（李侃如博士）是美國著名的中國問題專家，于1998年8月至2000年10月任美國總統(tǒng)國家安全事務(wù)特別助理、美國國家安全委員會亞洲事務(wù)部資深主任，負責美國對東北亞、東亞和東南亞的政策。

原文為英文，中文本由劉春梅翻譯，王緝思審校，北京大學(xué)國際戰(zhàn)略研究中心2012 年3 月印發(fā)。