US Life Expectancy Drops Dramatically Due to COVID-19 美國(guó)人預(yù)期壽命因新冠疫情大減

蕾切爾·雷特納文 李怡瑩譯

U.S. life expectancy just dropped by more than a year—the largest decline in decades—as a result of the sheer number of deaths from COVID-19， according to estimates from a new study.

The study researchers project that， due to the COVID-19 pandemic， the average U.S. life expectancy in 2020 will drop by 1.13 years， bringing it to 77.48 years， according to the study， published Thursday （Jan. 14） in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Thats the largest single-year decline in life expectancy in at least 40 years， and it would bring the countrys life expectancy down its lowest level since 2003， the researchers said.

Life expectancy in the U.S. rarely declines， and when it does， it makes headlines. Most recently， U.S. life expectancy declined by 0.1 years in 2015， 2016 and 2017—a trend that was attributed to rises in “deaths of despair，” including drug overdose and suicide. The new estimated decline due to COVID-19 is 10 times greater.

Whats more， the study showed even larger declines in 2020 among Black and Latino communities， which have been hit particularly hard by the pandemic. Overall， nearly 400，000 deaths have been attributed to COVID-19 in the U.S.， according to the Johns Hopkins virus dashboard.

The study projected life expectancy for Black people will drop by 2.1 years， to 72.78 years， and life expectancy for Latino people will drop by 3.05 years， to 78.77 years. In contrast， the life expectancy for white people is projected to decline by 0.68 years to 77.84 years.

“Our study analyzes the effect of this exceptional number of deaths on life expectancy for the entire nation， as well as the consequences for marginalized groups，” study co-author Theresa Andrasfay， a postdoctoral fellow at the University of Southern California， said in a statement. “The COVID-19 pandemics disproportionate effect on the life expectancy of Black and Latino Americans likely has to do with their greater exposure through their workplace or extended family contacts， in addition to receiving poorer health care， leading to more infections and worse outcomes.”

The researchers estimated U.S. life expectancy at birth using four scenarios—one in which the COVID-19 pandemic didnt happen， and three scenarios that used COVID-19 death projections for 2020 from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.

The larger reductions in life expectancy for Black and Latino populations was in part due to “a disproportionate number of deaths at younger ages for these groups，” study co-author Noreen Goldman， a professor of demography and public affairs at Princeton University， said in the statement. “These findings underscore the need for protective behaviors and programs to reduce potential viral exposure among younger individuals who may not perceive themselves to be at high risk.”

Its important to note that life expectancy at birth is an estimate of how long a population of people would live if they were to experience the death rates seen in a given period （in this case， in 2020）， the authors said.

Although COVID-19 vaccines may significantly reduce transmission this year， the researchers dont anticipate life expectancy to immediately bounce back in 2021.

“While the arrival of effective vaccines is hopeful， the U.S. is currently experiencing more daily COVID-19 deaths than at any other point in the pandemic，” Andrasfay said. “We expect there will be lingering effects on life expectancy in 2021.”

一項(xiàng)新的研究估計(jì)，由于新型冠狀病毒造成人員大量死亡，美國(guó)的預(yù)期壽命最近下降了一歲多，這是幾十年來(lái)最大的一次降幅。

根據(jù)1月14日發(fā)表在《美國(guó)科學(xué)院院報(bào)》上的研究，研究人員預(yù)測(cè)，由于新型冠狀病毒肺炎大流行，2020年美國(guó)平均預(yù)期壽命下降1.13歲，降至77.48歲。研究人員表示這是至少40年來(lái)預(yù)期壽命降幅最大的一年，將會(huì)使美國(guó)的預(yù)期壽命降低至2003年以來(lái)的最低水平。

美國(guó)的預(yù)期壽命幾乎不下降，一旦下降就登上了頭條新聞。近幾年，美國(guó)的預(yù)期壽命在2015年、2016年和2017年都下降了0.1歲——這一趨勢(shì)歸因于“絕望死亡”的上升，其中包括吸毒過(guò)量與自殺。新的預(yù)估數(shù)據(jù)顯示，新冠肺炎導(dǎo)致的下降幅度比這大10倍。

此外，這項(xiàng)研究顯示，2020年，黑人與拉美裔人群體受疫情影響尤為嚴(yán)重，其預(yù)期壽命下降幅度更大?？偟膩?lái)說(shuō)，根據(jù)約翰霍普金斯大學(xué)病毒儀表盤的數(shù)據(jù)，美國(guó)共有近40萬(wàn)人死于新冠肺炎。

研究預(yù)測(cè)黑人的預(yù)期壽命將會(huì)減少2.1歲，降至72.78歲，拉美裔人的預(yù)期壽命將會(huì)減少3.05歲，降至78.77歲。相比之下，白人的預(yù)期壽命將會(huì)減少0.68歲，降至77.84歲。

“我們的研究分析了超常死亡人數(shù)對(duì)整個(gè)國(guó)家預(yù)期壽命的影響，以及給邊緣群體帶來(lái)的后果。”研究報(bào)告合著者、南加州大學(xué)博士后特蕾莎·安德拉斯法伊在一份聲明中說(shuō)道，“新冠疫情對(duì)黑人與拉美裔美國(guó)人預(yù)期壽命的影響與其人口占比不相稱，可能是因?yàn)檫@兩類人群的工作場(chǎng)所或者幾代同堂的生活方式使其暴露在更大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)中，外加醫(yī)療條件更差，導(dǎo)致感染病例更多，后果更為嚴(yán)重。”

研究人員使用四種情景估算了美國(guó)人出生時(shí)預(yù)期壽命——一種情景是新冠肺炎大流行沒(méi)有發(fā)生，另外三種情景使用了健康指標(biāo)和評(píng)估研究所對(duì)2020年新冠肺炎死亡率的預(yù)測(cè)。

對(duì)于黑人與拉美裔人來(lái)說(shuō)，預(yù)期壽命的大幅度減少某種程度上是由于“在這些群體中年輕人死亡比例過(guò)高”，該研究報(bào)告的合著者、普林斯頓大學(xué)人口學(xué)和公共事務(wù)教授諾琳·戈德曼在一份聲明中說(shuō)，“這些發(fā)現(xiàn)強(qiáng)調(diào)了保護(hù)措施和計(jì)劃的必要性，以減少年輕人群中潛在的病毒接觸，這些年輕人可能并不覺(jué)得自身處在高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)之中。”

研究報(bào)告作者稱，需要注意的是，出生時(shí)預(yù)期壽命是人口在特定時(shí)期（本文為2020年）的死亡率水平下可能存活的年數(shù)。

盡管今年新冠疫苗可能大幅降低病毒的傳播，但是研究人員認(rèn)為預(yù)期壽命不會(huì)在2021年迅速反彈。

安德拉斯法伊說(shuō)：“盡管我們有望得到有效的疫苗，但當(dāng)下美國(guó)每日因新冠病毒而死去的人數(shù)比以往任何時(shí)候都多。”他還補(bǔ)充道：“我們預(yù)計(jì)新冠肺炎對(duì)預(yù)期壽命的影響在2021年仍會(huì)持續(xù)?！?/p>