中國(guó)開(kāi)放的大門只會(huì)越開(kāi)越大

編者按:

如何理解“雙循環(huán)”？“雙循環(huán)”需要改革的關(guān)鍵點(diǎn)是什么？“雙循環(huán)”的投資機(jī)會(huì)在哪里？“十四五”時(shí)期的發(fā)展環(huán)境如何？以什么思路發(fā)展？有哪些任務(wù)和舉措？如何開(kāi)頂風(fēng)船，轉(zhuǎn)危為機(jī)，努力實(shí)現(xiàn)更高質(zhì)量的發(fā)展……

帶著這些問(wèn)題，我們與17位頂級(jí)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家進(jìn)行了深入交流。

Editor’s note

What is dual circulation? What are the key points to be reformed for it? What investment opportunities will it bring? What will be the development environment during the 14th Five-Year Plan? What will be the development ideas? What will be tasks and initiatives? How do we overcome difficulties,turn crises into opportunities,and strive to achieve higher quality development? …

With the aforementioned questions,we conducted a deep discussion with 17 top economists.

精品書摘未完待續(xù)

Excerpts （to be continued）

其實(shí)內(nèi)循環(huán)，或者說(shuō)內(nèi)需對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的貢獻(xiàn)和驅(qū)動(dòng)力，在過(guò)去的十幾年一直是上升的。一個(gè)最典型的例子就是中國(guó)的對(duì)外貿(mào)易依存度（外貿(mào)的出口加上外貿(mào)的進(jìn)口，除以GDP）是逐年下降的。在全球金融危機(jī)以前，中國(guó)的對(duì)外貿(mào)易依存度高達(dá)65%，而現(xiàn)在大概是31.4%。在中國(guó)改革開(kāi)放之初，包括在21世紀(jì)加入WTO初期時(shí)，中國(guó)利用外貿(mào)拉動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，效果顯著。但是隨著規(guī)模的增加，作為一個(gè)大型經(jīng)濟(jì)體，依靠出口拉動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)是不可持續(xù)的?，F(xiàn)在很多小型經(jīng)濟(jì)體是在走這個(gè)路子，這種方式是不可持續(xù)的。因?yàn)槿蛲赓Q(mào)的蛋糕就那么大，快馬加鞭，會(huì)增加國(guó)際貿(mào)易摩擦。

另外，是有關(guān)中國(guó)自身產(chǎn)業(yè)的安全、經(jīng)濟(jì)的安全。中國(guó)想要融入全球分工體系之中，但是若自身的創(chuàng)新能力不強(qiáng)，會(huì)在關(guān)鍵環(huán)節(jié)遭遇“卡脖子”，一些關(guān)鍵的環(huán)節(jié)可能受制于人。所以中國(guó)還是要以內(nèi)循環(huán)為主，這個(gè)是基于當(dāng)前國(guó)際形勢(shì)的變化和自身內(nèi)在的要求，作出的重大調(diào)整。這也體現(xiàn)了過(guò)去經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的結(jié)構(gòu)性變化趨勢(shì)——內(nèi)需對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的貢獻(xiàn)越來(lái)越大，而且展望未來(lái)，無(wú)論是消費(fèi)需求還是投資需求都有很大的發(fā)展?jié)摿Α，F(xiàn)在中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模突破100萬(wàn)億元，人均GDP突破1萬(wàn)美元，但是相對(duì)發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體來(lái)說(shuō)，中國(guó)仍然只有別國(guó)的 1/4。中國(guó)14億人口當(dāng)中，有6億人每個(gè)月的收入不到1000元，有10億人現(xiàn)在還沒(méi)有坐過(guò)飛機(jī)，所以未來(lái)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展?jié)摿€是很大的。因此中國(guó)也是要通過(guò)供給側(cè)的結(jié)構(gòu)性改革，提升供給的質(zhì)量、服務(wù)的質(zhì)量來(lái)滿足老百姓對(duì)高質(zhì)量生活的需求。中國(guó)要利用這樣一個(gè)機(jī)會(huì)來(lái)發(fā)展自身的經(jīng)濟(jì)。

發(fā)展內(nèi)需不是說(shuō)要搞閉關(guān)鎖國(guó)。中國(guó)還是要利用兩個(gè)市場(chǎng)兩種資源不遺余力地?cái)U(kuò)大開(kāi)放。這兩年北京的服貿(mào)會(huì)、廣州的廣交會(huì)、上海的進(jìn)博會(huì)，三足鼎立，都釋放出一個(gè)積極的信號(hào)：中國(guó)開(kāi)放的大門只會(huì)越開(kāi)越大。

Actually,internal circulation,or domestic demand,has played an ever greater role in boosting national economic growth in the past over a decade. The best proof is the yearby-year decrease in China’s foreign trade degree of dependence （FTD,i.e. the sum of exports and imports divided by GDP）. Before the global financial crisis broke out,China’s FTD was up to 65%,but now has dropped to approximately 31.4%. True enough,in the first decades after China launched the reform and opening-up policy,especially after China’s participation in the WTO in the 21st century,remarkable achievements were made by China in driving economic growth through foreign trade. But as China’s GDP rises,developing economy by relying on export trade has become unsustainable for such a large country as China. Though many small economies today are still growing this way,this cannot change its unsustainable nature a bit. That’s because the size of the “global foreign trade” cake is stable in a period and more haste could backfire — Trade friction between worldwide countries may escalate.

Another reason why the way is not sustainable is that it cannot keep China’s industry and economy in healthy shape. To get integrated into the international division of labor,China must become innovative enough. Otherwise,it may get stuck in key links or even have to rely on others in some ones. In this connection,China should focus on internal circulation. It’s a major adjustment given current international and domestic situations. It also reflects the structural change trend of China’s economic growth in the past years — Domestic demand will contribute more and more to economic growth. Moreover,both domestic consumption and investment demands are expected to embrace huge development potential in the coming future. In 2020,China’s GDP exceeded the 100-trillion-yuan threshold. But in terms of per capita GDP,China still lags behind that of developed economies with a figure of about USD 10,000,which is only 1/4 of the advanced levels. Besides,of China’s 1.4 billion people,600 million earn less than 1,000 yuan a month,and 1 billion have never taken a plane. It can be seen that there is still great potential in China for future economic growth. Therefore,it’s necessary for China to pursue supplyside structural reform and improve the quality of supply and service to satisfy people’s demand for a high-quality life. Meanwhile,it also presents China with a good opportunity to boost economic growth.

But focusing on domestic demand is not to close the door. Instead,China will make better use of both international and domestic markets and resources to open wider. In the past two years,China International Fair for Trade in Services,China Import and Export Fair,and China International Import Expo were held in China’s Beijing,Guangzhou and Shanghai respectively. And all of them have sent the same positive signal:China will open wider and wider.

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