高質(zhì)量建設(shè)RCEP，需提升經(jīng)濟(jì)互補(bǔ)性

黎敏

剛剛過去的2020年，《區(qū)域全面經(jīng)濟(jì)伙伴關(guān)系協(xié)定》（RCEP）的簽署無疑是區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化建設(shè)的又一里程碑?？傮w來看，RCEP的開放水平顯著高于原有“10+1”自貿(mào)協(xié)定，并納入了多個(gè)現(xiàn)代化議題，是一個(gè)現(xiàn)代、全面、高質(zhì)量、互惠的大型區(qū)域自貿(mào)協(xié)定。

當(dāng)我們從慶祝RCEP簽署的熱烈氛圍中走出，未來如何真正實(shí)現(xiàn)RCEP的高質(zhì)量發(fā)展，如何應(yīng)對(duì)其中的挑戰(zhàn)，似乎更值得我們思考。近期，本刊記者就RCEP建設(shè)及中國(guó)—東盟次區(qū)域合作等相關(guān)問題，對(duì)南京大學(xué)國(guó)際關(guān)系研究院副院長(zhǎng)、教授、博士生導(dǎo)師鄭先武進(jìn)行了專訪。這位曾經(jīng)做過財(cái)經(jīng)記者的教授，從經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)等領(lǐng)域?yàn)槲覀兲接戇@些問題提供了一個(gè)獨(dú)特的視角。

從貿(mào)易轉(zhuǎn)移到貿(mào)易創(chuàng)造

毫無疑問，RCEP與所有現(xiàn)行的自貿(mào)協(xié)定一樣，在給成員國(guó)帶來巨大發(fā)展紅利、給世界釋放多邊主義利好的同時(shí)，也會(huì)帶來一些新的挑戰(zhàn)。鄭先武認(rèn)為，評(píng)價(jià)一個(gè)自貿(mào)協(xié)定是否有利于推動(dòng)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化，可以從兩個(gè)層面來考量，一個(gè)是貿(mào)易轉(zhuǎn)移，另一個(gè)是貿(mào)易創(chuàng)造。

“所謂貿(mào)易轉(zhuǎn)移，其實(shí)就是通過雙方合作，你的產(chǎn)品賣到我這，我的產(chǎn)品賣到你那，讓一個(gè)國(guó)家的優(yōu)勢(shì)產(chǎn)品變得更具優(yōu)勢(shì)，劣勢(shì)產(chǎn)品有可能更加劣勢(shì)，最后在比較優(yōu)勢(shì)下，產(chǎn)品脫穎而出。但貿(mào)易轉(zhuǎn)移有一定的弊端，簡(jiǎn)單來說，它就如同財(cái)富從一個(gè)兜里裝進(jìn)另一個(gè)兜里，總體財(cái)富并沒有增加，長(zhǎng)期來看，這并不是最佳的發(fā)展模式，而且會(huì)讓貿(mào)易雙方形成較大的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)?！编嵪任湔f，“這是國(guó)際貿(mào)易中常見的模式，但不一定是RCEP和中國(guó)—東盟經(jīng)貿(mào)合作高質(zhì)量發(fā)展要追求的模式?！?/p>

鄭先武指出，RCEP要實(shí)現(xiàn)高質(zhì)量發(fā)展，更應(yīng)該關(guān)注貿(mào)易創(chuàng)造，也就是通過合作，讓雙方各有所得，并培育出優(yōu)秀的企業(yè)。而如何實(shí)現(xiàn)貿(mào)易創(chuàng)造呢？需要發(fā)展科技，完善制度、企業(yè)管理等。

從經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)視角來探討如何實(shí)現(xiàn)貿(mào)易創(chuàng)造，鄭先武指出，各方需要有一定的經(jīng)濟(jì)互補(bǔ)性。“如果合作的國(guó)家間經(jīng)濟(jì)互補(bǔ)性很強(qiáng)、鏈條很長(zhǎng)，彼此都需要對(duì)方的產(chǎn)品，那么在貿(mào)易轉(zhuǎn)移的同時(shí)，也會(huì)有貿(mào)易創(chuàng)造，雙方就沒有明顯的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)性?！编嵪任湔J(rèn)為，目前，中國(guó)與東盟國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)互補(bǔ)性還不夠明顯，但RCEP的簽署把日本、韓國(guó)、澳大利亞等發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家引入后，將有利于整個(gè)區(qū)域的合作，實(shí)現(xiàn)貿(mào)易創(chuàng)造。因?yàn)檫@些發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家與中國(guó)—東盟有非常強(qiáng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)互補(bǔ)性。

“所以，對(duì)于RCEP未來的發(fā)展，我們?cè)陉P(guān)注它大體量的同時(shí)，更關(guān)鍵的是要考量微觀層面是貿(mào)易轉(zhuǎn)移更多，還是貿(mào)易創(chuàng)造更多?！编嵪任湔f。

科技創(chuàng)新，提升經(jīng)濟(jì)互補(bǔ)性

盡管實(shí)際中經(jīng)濟(jì)的運(yùn)行是復(fù)雜多變的，但鄭先武認(rèn)為，我們可以根據(jù)經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)律做一些前瞻性的工作。比如，RCEP未來要實(shí)現(xiàn)高質(zhì)量發(fā)展，基本離不開創(chuàng)造更好的經(jīng)濟(jì)互補(bǔ)性。而如何提升經(jīng)濟(jì)互補(bǔ)性？我們要將打造比較優(yōu)勢(shì)的發(fā)展策略調(diào)整為打造規(guī)模優(yōu)勢(shì)。

“中美貿(mào)易摩擦已經(jīng)告訴我們，很大程度上比較優(yōu)勢(shì)已經(jīng)算不上優(yōu)勢(shì)，別人不生產(chǎn)的東西你生產(chǎn)，本身附加值低還容易受國(guó)際市場(chǎng)影響。那么真正的優(yōu)勢(shì)是什么？”鄭先武進(jìn)一步闡釋道，“是規(guī)模優(yōu)勢(shì)，這個(gè)‘規(guī)模不是簡(jiǎn)單的規(guī)模大，而是以科技為支撐的規(guī)模優(yōu)勢(shì)，甚至是壟斷優(yōu)勢(shì)?！?/p>

目前，中國(guó)在5G、高鐵、北斗導(dǎo)航等領(lǐng)域已經(jīng)走在了世界前列，產(chǎn)業(yè)優(yōu)勢(shì)日益凸顯，而這離不開近年來中國(guó)對(duì)科技創(chuàng)新的重視。未來5年，中國(guó)仍將把科技自立自強(qiáng)作為國(guó)家發(fā)展的戰(zhàn)略支撐，通過科技創(chuàng)新賦能傳統(tǒng)和新興產(chǎn)業(yè)，中國(guó)—東盟可以進(jìn)一步培育經(jīng)濟(jì)互補(bǔ)性。

在提升經(jīng)濟(jì)互補(bǔ)性的過程中，鄭先武還指出，我們一方面要繼續(xù)對(duì)外開放，向發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家學(xué)習(xí);另一方面，企業(yè)要更新企業(yè)制度和理念。“不做大雜燴的比較優(yōu)勢(shì)，而要做‘兩個(gè)一，即唯一，不做別人都做的事;專一，一旦選擇就腳踏實(shí)地地推進(jìn)，不要急功近利。有了這‘兩個(gè)一，慢慢就會(huì)成為第一?！编嵪任湔f，“RCEP的簽署是一個(gè)很好的開始，它既顯示出中國(guó)有強(qiáng)烈的意愿在周邊地區(qū)做一些引領(lǐng);也顯示出在中美兩國(guó)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的大背景下，中日兩國(guó)能夠擱置爭(zhēng)議，在經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域真正開展合作。而中日兩國(guó)間的這種合作，將對(duì)包含東盟在內(nèi)的整個(gè)亞洲地區(qū)產(chǎn)生巨大的影響?！?/p>

打通次區(qū)域合作的“毛細(xì)血管”

中美兩國(guó)關(guān)系發(fā)展的不確定性是當(dāng)前世界各國(guó)都無法忽視的國(guó)際局勢(shì)，在兩個(gè)大國(guó)間，中國(guó)與日本、東盟的關(guān)系，美國(guó)與日本、東盟的關(guān)系都在發(fā)生著微妙的變化。2020年9月，湄公河5國(guó)外交部長(zhǎng)、東盟秘書長(zhǎng)、時(shí)任美國(guó)副國(guó)務(wù)卿比根共同宣布啟動(dòng)“湄公河—美國(guó)伙伴關(guān)系”。在中國(guó)與湄公河5國(guó)共建瀾湄合作機(jī)制之后，美國(guó)這一舉措的意圖不言而喻。

挑戰(zhàn)之下，瀾湄合作未來的發(fā)展更需要智慧和實(shí)效。而此前，瀾湄合作已與國(guó)際陸海貿(mào)易新通道（以下簡(jiǎn)稱“陸海新通道”）實(shí)現(xiàn)了對(duì)接。

對(duì)此，鄭先武認(rèn)為，瀾湄合作有一定的地理指向性，與“陸海新通道”對(duì)接的話，能夠?qū)崿F(xiàn)橫向的整合。“‘陸海新通道向南延伸，涵蓋一些瀾湄流域之外的國(guó)家，比如新加坡、馬來西亞、印尼等。這樣的話可以在橫向和縱向上進(jìn)行相應(yīng)的互補(bǔ)。”鄭先武說，其次，瀾湄合作與“陸海新通道”關(guān)注的重點(diǎn)議題和合作領(lǐng)域也有一定的互補(bǔ)性。比如瀾湄合作的三大支柱之一是政治安全，在優(yōu)先合作領(lǐng)域里涵蓋水資源、農(nóng)業(yè)和減貧等，而“陸海新通道”更強(qiáng)調(diào)互聯(lián)互通、貿(mào)易投資，注重功能性的一些合作。兩者對(duì)接有利于資源的互通有無，合作成果更接地氣。

“從‘一帶一路建設(shè)的視角來看，無論是瀾湄合作還是‘陸海新通道，它們都如同人體的毛細(xì)血管，是最微觀的合作領(lǐng)域，如果它們能相互銜接、打通這些血管，那么宏觀層面的‘一帶一路建設(shè)將更為順利?！编嵪任溥€表示，兩者的對(duì)接，短期內(nèi)會(huì)為交通基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)市場(chǎng)帶來新的發(fā)展空間，就中長(zhǎng)期而言，它會(huì)拉動(dòng)地區(qū)的貿(mào)易與投資。

但因?yàn)榘l(fā)展基礎(chǔ)相對(duì)薄弱，鄭先武認(rèn)為，本地區(qū)未來在招商引資方面不必一味追求世界500強(qiáng)、國(guó)際一流企業(yè)的高大3上，也可以著眼國(guó)內(nèi)，尤其是利用好中國(guó)構(gòu)建以國(guó)內(nèi)循環(huán)為主、國(guó)內(nèi)國(guó)際雙循環(huán)相互促進(jìn)新發(fā)展格局的契機(jī)，積極與長(zhǎng)三角等內(nèi)生動(dòng)力強(qiáng)勁的地區(qū)進(jìn)行對(duì)接，探尋新的合作機(jī)會(huì)。

而一個(gè)充滿市場(chǎng)活力，具有內(nèi)生動(dòng)力的瀾湄合作與“陸海新通道”，自然會(huì)得到更多東盟國(guó)家的真誠(chéng)點(diǎn)贊。

After eight years of tough negotiations， November 15 saw a breakthrough for regional cooperation as 15 Asia-Pacific nations signed the biggest free trade deal in history. Comprising the 10 ASEAN members， Australia， China， Japan， New Zealand and South Korea， the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership （RCEP） will reduce trade barriers across a third of the worlds population and economic output area. Economists at Johns Hopkins University estimate the pact could add US$ 186 billion to the global economy — a welcome boost as we face the worst recession in a century.

Perhaps more significantly， the RCEP will catalyse Asias long-term integration and is a major milestone in the opening up of China， providing a foundation for membership in more advanced trade agreements.

In its 14th five-year plan （2021-2025）， China must adapt to a post-pandemic world shaped by economic uncertainty and the splintering of global value chains. As Chinas first multilateral trade deal — and the first to include Japan and South Korea — the RCEP， which will remove around 90% of tariffs eventually， meshes powerfully with Chinas dual circulation strategy， which aims to boost self-sufficiency while diversifying integration into global markets.

In “international circulation” — foreign trade and investment — the RCEPs common rules of origin will make cross-border trade simpler and cheaper， allowing Chinese firms to optimize resource allocation between the domestic market and the rest of the region.

Links between China and RCEP supply-chain partners such as Vietnam and Malaysia are already deepening in sectors such as electronic manufacturing. Chinas imports of integrated circuits from ASEAN grew by 23.8% in the first half of this year， while its exports of the same to ASEAN grew 29.1%. ASEAN has surpassed the European Union to become Chinas largest trading partner. The RCEP also dovetails with Chinas plans to internationalize the yuan and develop Hainan into the worlds largest free-trade port.

Just as importantly， the RCEP aligns with another core thrust of Chinas dual circulation strategy： boosting domestic consumption. The rise of the Chinese consumer is already one of the most promising growth stories for the post-pandemic world. In its 14th five-year plan， the Chinese government will further increase consumer spending by raising productivity and wages， strengthening the social safety net and expanding economic opportunities in smaller towns and rural areas.

Earlier this month， President Xi Jinping projected that China would import US$ 22 trillion of goods in the next decade. Firms， workers and farmers in RCEP economies are well-placed to tap this bounty.

Chinas role as the RCEPs main magnet for imports will offset its status as an export powerhouse， and help to balance trade dynamics within the pact. This is important as tensions could emerge if the RCEP were to seriously exacerbate trade deficits in member countries.

Over time， cross-border trade and investment will expand the synergies between Chinas dual circulation strategy and the RCEP， reinforcing the pacts cohesion and viability as a vehicle for deeper regional integration. Like fine wine， ASEAN agreements tend to improve with time.

For China， the RCEP could be a stepping stone for more trade agreements， as the Asia-Pacific becomes a coherent trading zone like Europe or North America， albeit on a grander scale. For example， the RCEP boosts Chinas prospects of sealing the trilateral free-trade agreement with Japan and South Korea. It also weakens obstacles to China joining the CPTPP.

Previously， some voices at home had raised doubts over China joining the RCEP， let alone the less flexible CPTPP， seen as a forerunner of even higher-standard trade agreements. Success in the RCEP will help quell this domestic opposition while reforms take Chinas economy closer to CPTPP rules on issues such as intellectual property， market access and foreign investment.

The two regional agreements are by no means mutually exclusive — seven countries are members of both. In fact， they could form complementary tracks to regional integration： the rigorous CPTPP for more advanced economies and the less-demanding RCEP for developing Asian countries. And China could eventually help to bridge the two projects — under the Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific or some other mechanism.

Given that US President Joe Biden is open to renegotiating the pact his predecessor abandoned， the worlds two largest economies could one day come under its common umbrella of trade rules. Not only would this help to stabilize relations between China and the United States， it could also provide a template for World Trade Organization reforms.

International trade and cooperation have suffered in recent years under the weight of populism， protectionism and now the pandemic. Encouraging news on vaccine development and Bidens election victory have raised hopes that the world can turn a page in 2021. As a catalyst for Asian integration and Chinas continued opening-up， the RCEP is yet another reason to be optimistic.