On the Objective Conditions for the US to Pursue an Extreme Policy on the South China Sea

The United States issued a issued a statement of “U.S.Position on Maritime Claims in the South China Sea” (the Statement hereafter) on July 13,2020,definitely denying China’s claims to the South China Sea,which runs completely contrary to the attitude of taking no position on the sovereign disputes over the South China Sea manifested in relevant statements made during the Clinton and Obama administrations of the United States,thus putting the US in opposition to China’s claims over the South China Sea.The Statement is not only in line with the tough policy on China pursued by Obama during his late administration over the South China Sea issue,but also assumes more characteristics of power-politics on top of Trump’s indulgence of the US military to get tough with China since his coming to office.Its inherent power-politics logic highlighting American absolute dominance over Asian affairs indicates that the objective conditions for the US to pursue an extreme policy on the South China Sea have become mature,while the manifestation of extremism in such a policy is likely to get more apparent.

I.Motivations of the US to Pursue an Extreme Policy toward China on the South China Sea

Legally denying China’s sovereign claims over the South China Sea,strengthening the case for legitimate US involvement in the South China Sea issue,expanding the scope of sanctions against China,and maintaining its capacity of conducting “divide and rule” in the South China Sea constitute the key motivations of the US to pursue an increasingly extreme policy on the South China Sea.

The Statement has simply taken the award of the “arbitration” as the basis for US position on the South China Sea,while neglecting the fact that the arbitration itself was rather controversial,hence denying or opposing China’s relevant maritime claims in the South China Sea based on the “dotted line”.Objectively,the Statement has promoted the international community to strengthen the award of arbitration,contain China in the resolution of the South China Sea dispute,and interfere in the smooth resolution of the South China Sea issue.The shaping of this external environment has foreshadowed the extreme policy of the US on the South China Sea.

For a long time,“freedom of navigation” and “regional stability”had been the main pretext the US has taken for its interference into the regional affairs of the South China Sea.However,under the circumstance that the negotiations on the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea have made positive headways,the US is losing both legitimacy and rationality in its operations in the South China Sea.In order to shake off the limitation of lack of legitimacy on its South China Sea policy,the US badly needs to reinforce its excuses for interfering in the South China Sea affairs.The strengthening the “award of the arbitration” by the Statement may achieve two goals: first,sowing discords between China and other claimant countries in the South China Sea; second,re-establishing interest relationship between the US and relevant countries in Southeast Asia.On such a basis,the US will be able to put greater pressure on China over the South China Sea issue.

In 2017 and 2019,the US Congress successively passed two South and East China Sea Sanctions Acts,demanding sanctions against 25 Chinese entities that have taken part in the construction on the Nansha islands and reefs.Nonetheless,these Acts were deemed as too narrow in the scope of sanctions.This time,the Statement has,presupposing a complete denial of China’s claims to the South China Sea,presumed all China’s rights protection activities in the South China Sea to be “illegal”.Under such a pretext,the US has expanded its sanctions against China from constructions of islands and reefs in the South China Sea to China’s economic activities in the region such as fishing,oil and gas prospecting,scientific expeditions among others.As a result,the US has incorporated its South China Sea policy as whole into its Asia-Pacific strategic framework to contain China.

II.Political,Military and International Discourse Basis for American Extreme Policy on the South China Sea

Taking no position over the South China Sea sovereign dispute had long been the major tone of American policy on the South China Sea.The Obama administration broke this line first in action,as manifested by its criticism of China’s rights protection activities in the South China Sea,launching“freedom of navigation” operations with its allies in the South China Sea,encouraging the Philippines to submit the South China Sea dispute to international arbitration,and creating a negative image of China in international public opinion.However,the Obama administration remained cautious in its rhetoric,hence forming two wings of policy,in order to keep the situation in the South China Sea from falling out of American control.Since Trump taking power,the US has maintained the action inertia of the Obama era in its South China Sea policy,while the clear position taken by the Statement on the sovereign dispute in the South China Sea has advanced American South China Sea policy to a new strategic level,which enables the US to put extreme pressures on China over the South China Sea issue.

Military security is the backup force for American South China Sea policy.The US and its allies as well as the Southeast Asian countries have built various multilateral security cooperation frameworks in the Asia-Pacific,including the “hub-spoke” alliance structure built in the wake of the Second World War,the “cobweb” framework for multilateral security cooperation that began to be built during the Obama administration,and the“Indo-Pacific” alliance system pursued by the Trump administration based on the “quartet alliance” made up of the US,Japan,India and Australia,all of which have formed an international strategic framework for the US to dominate the regions surrounding the South China Sea and the Asia-Pacific order.In view of the US forward military deployment around the South China Sea; frequent trespassing,over-flight,surveillance,and military exercises conducted by the Trump administration in the South China Sea;and particularly the US conducting aircraft carrier battle group coordinated military operations on a regular basis in the South China Sea,the US has already had the capability to interfere in the South China Sea issue.

Mobilizing its advantages in international discourse is an important aspect of the US policy on the South China Sea.Since Trump coming to office,US officials,think tanks and media have constantly hyped and fermented such issues as the “the South China Sea arbitration between China and the Philippines”,“freedom of navigation” and “China’s claims to the South China Sea based on the dotted line” in order to maintain American dominance on international discourse in the South China Sea region.The Statement issued recently has added another momentum to American dominance on international discourse over the South China Sea issue.This deliberate hyping of “China’s claims to the South China Sea are not in line with the international law” in international discourse has laid the ground for the US to accelerate its turn to extremism at a particular time in its South China Sea policy.

III.Domestic Political Factors for America's Extreme Policy on the South China Sea

In recent years,differences on American China policy between the conservative and liberal elites have been narrowing,while they have reached a broad consensus on strengthening containment on China and expanding competitive advantage over China.Although they still have disagreement on taking what approach toward and putting how much pressure on China,it is not likely that the current policy momentum of excluding China based on strategic security,maintaining advantages over China in military preparedness and high-tech competition,and engaging in overall competition with China would be reversed.

Politicians from both the Democratic Party and the Republican Party have obviously tended to come closer to each other in their views and belief that China’s economic and military development has posed threats to the US,and more resolute and tougher policies should be resumed on China in order to bring China to its knees.Multiple anti-China Acts,such as the Asia Reassurance Initiative Act of 2018 and the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act of 2019,have been passed by large votes in both houses of the US Congress,which indicates the high consistency of American politics on its China policy.

There is not much difference in the position taken by American media on the China issue from that of American politicians.In reports relating to the South China Sea issue,American media has been keen on the negative side,and even become the leader of American negative forces on the issue.Of late,the negative coverage of China in the US media has surprisingly synchronized with the increase in negative sentiment toward China among the American public.According to the polls conducted by Gallup and Pew Research,two American major pollsters,the American public’s identification with China continues to decline in recent years,and has dropped to the lowest point in 2019/20 since 2015.

Positions of the US government,Congress,media and public on China turning passive have laid the ground for American policy on the South China Sea to go extreme.Once conditions turned mature for Trump or other American political groups to sacrifice the China-US relationship for domestic interests or other regional interests,the South China Sea would become the test ground for the US to pursue an extreme policy toward China.

IV.International Political Logic for American Extreme Policy on the South China Sea

The extremalization of American policy on the South China Sea is in line with the general power-politics logic,behind which lies the strategic intention of the US to dominate the international order in the Asia-Pacific region to satisfy the needs of its global hegemony,and delay or break challenges posed by China,a rapidly rising country in the region,by applying extreme pressures in order to maintain its strategic dominance in the Asia-Pacific.

Since the end of the Second World War,the US has long been the absolute strategic dominating power in the Asia-Pacific.China’s rise has challenged American regional dominance.Although China is no match for the US,both in hard power and soft power,in economy,science and technology,and military,America’s logic for maintaining its global hegemony demands preventing any potential challenger from rising and nipping any threat in the bud.From this logic,the American governments from Obama to Trump taking the South China Sea issue as an pretext to sow discords between China and its neighbors around the South China Sea,vilify China,and prevent China’ influence from growing will be reasonably explained.

V.Conclusion: The Future Development Direction of American Policy on the South China Sea and Its Impact on China

The US issuing a position statement on the South China Sea at a specific time has resulted from the interaction between its international political interests and domestic political operation.In an era when strengthening containment on China has increasingly become a consensus among American political elites and American society has become enslaved to the influence of political elites and media,the negative views about China prevailing in American society have cleared the way for the US to further expand its external policies.Although it is too early to predict that the international and domestic elements that prompt the US to go tough on China in its policy have formed a vicious circle,it is not wrong for us to say that the current situation has laid the foundation for the US to pursue a tougher policy toward China by taking the South China Sea issue as a pretext.

In the foreseeable future,if some ASEAN claimant countries made an issue of the South China Sea again,the US would have new excuses to upgrade its coercion policies on China over the South China Sea issue.The policy re-docking of the US with countries around the South China Sea will constitute the biggest instable factor that affects China’s security in its neighborhood and its national strategic development.

(Jiang Chenxian is doctoral student at the School of International Studies,Jinan University; and Ju Hailong is professor,Vice Dean and doctoral supervisor at the School of International Studies,Jinan University.This article was received on Sept.05,2020)