盲盒經(jīng)濟(jì)

陳德彰

前不久，“盲盒經(jīng)濟(jì)”突然崛起?！懊ず小狈@了大量忠粉的心，人們對(duì)之入迷。有一對(duì)夫婦為此四個(gè)月花了20萬(wàn)元，還有一位60歲的玩家，一年花費(fèi)70多萬(wàn)元購(gòu)買(mǎi)盲盒。數(shù)據(jù)顯示，某二手購(gòu)物平臺(tái)過(guò)去一年有30萬(wàn)盲盒玩家在其平臺(tái)交易。

盲盒里面通常裝的是動(dòng)漫、影視作品的周邊玩偶，或?qū)ｉT(mén)設(shè)計(jì)出來(lái)的玩偶。但盒子上沒(méi)有標(biāo)注，只有打開(kāi)盒子才會(huì)知道自己抽到了什么。這和買(mǎi)彩票頗為相似，都有賭運(yùn)氣的成分。

單個(gè)盲盒的價(jià)格通常為三五十元。相對(duì)購(gòu)買(mǎi)力較強(qiáng)、受影視動(dòng)漫文化熏陶的年輕人，能夠撐起龐大的盲盒經(jīng)濟(jì)。從上游的IP設(shè)計(jì)，到中游的零售，再到下游的二手交易和玩偶改裝，其產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈已相當(dāng)成熟，且市場(chǎng)空間巨大，當(dāng)然也在不斷掏空年輕人的口袋。

不過(guò)，盲盒成癮說(shuō)到底是源于賭徒心理，相對(duì)于彩票，它高度不透明。售賣(mài)盲盒的商家是否放大了“中獎(jiǎng)”概率，變相誘導(dǎo)購(gòu)買(mǎi)，我們還不得而知，使得盲盒成為消費(fèi)陷阱。而且，盲盒中的物品是不是山寨產(chǎn)品，同樣是個(gè)未知數(shù)。另一方面，“盲盒經(jīng)濟(jì)”帶火了二手交易，一些拆出來(lái)的經(jīng)典、限量款玩偶，在二手交易平臺(tái)上價(jià)格暴漲，溢價(jià)甚至達(dá)到三四十倍。其火爆行情，到底是真實(shí)供需關(guān)系的結(jié)果，還是有商家投機(jī)炒作的因素，對(duì)盲盒玩家來(lái)說(shuō)很難判斷。

此外，“盲盒經(jīng)濟(jì)”基于收藏的文化潮流。“盲盒經(jīng)濟(jì)”的受眾，很多是涉世未深的未成年人，他們對(duì)市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的識(shí)別能力相對(duì)較低。因此，他們被刻意夸大的“中獎(jiǎng)”概率吸引，不斷投入金錢(qián)去購(gòu)買(mǎi)盲盒，以獲得心儀的玩偶，或者在二手交易平臺(tái)上花高價(jià)購(gòu)買(mǎi)盲盒玩偶，認(rèn)為可以保值升值，卻有可能陷入設(shè)計(jì)好的套路。所以有必要提醒年輕人節(jié)制消費(fèi)、避免成癮。監(jiān)管部門(mén)應(yīng)進(jìn)一步規(guī)范市場(chǎng)，對(duì)交易不透明以及各類違規(guī)炒作及時(shí)清理打擊，以保證這一新興行業(yè)能夠良性運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)。

國(guó)內(nèi)最火的盲盒品牌“泡泡瑪特”于2010年創(chuàng)立，2014—2016年連續(xù)虧損。2017年登上新三板后僅用一年時(shí)間就轉(zhuǎn)虧為盈，2018年凈利潤(rùn)較2016年增長(zhǎng)140倍。國(guó)泰君安證券研究發(fā)文《盲盒經(jīng)濟(jì)：好奇不僅害死貓，還能掏空你的錢(qián)包》。

Not long ago， “blind box economy” suddenly sprang up. The blind box has won the heart of large numbers of faithful fans. People simply get enchanted in it. A couple spent 200 thousand yuan on them. Another sixty-year-old guy spent over 700 thousand yuan in buying blind boxes. Statistics showed last year that 300 thousand hobbyists made deals through a second-hand shopping platform.

The blind boxes usually contain peripheral dolls of comics and animation， or film and television， or specially designed ones. But there is no mark on the box， and only after opening it can the buyer see what he has raffled. This is rather like buying lottery tickets， for the buyer has to bet on his luck.

A single blind box usually costs about thirty to fifty yuan. It is the young people who have purchase power and those who have been exerting influence on culture of comics and animation， or film and television can sustain the huge blind box economy. From the upstream IP （Intellectual Property） design to the midstream retailing， and then to the downstream second-hand trade and doll repackage， the whole industrial chain is fairly mature and there is a huge market space. Of course， it also continuously empties the pockets of the young people.

However， addiction to blind boxes is much like that to gambling. It is highly nontransparent compared with lottery ticket. Nobody knows whether sellers of blind boxes exaggerated the winning rate so as to induce people to buy them in disguised form， thus digging a consumption trap. Besides， it is also unknown if the objects in the blind boxes may turn out to be copycat products. The blind box economy promoted its second-hand trade. The price of some classic dolls or dolls of limited edition have skyrocketed in second-hand trade platforms， and some may reach thirty to forty fold. But it is difficult for buyers to judge whether it is the result of real supply and demand， or the consequence of businessmens speculation.

The basis of the “blind box economy” is the cultural trend of collection. Many of the target consumers are of minors who have scanty experience of life， whose capacity of discernment is relatively low. They are thus attracted by deliberately exaggerated probability of “winning a prize” and incessantly throw money to buy blind boxes in order to gain cherished dolls. Or they may buy at secondhand trade platform high-priced blind box dolls， thinking they can maintain value preservation and appreciation， thus falling into the fixed pattern of trap carefully designed by businessmen. Therefore， it is necessary to remind young people to control their consumption lest they become addicted. Supervision department should further regulate the market， timely liquidate and crack down on the nontransparent trade and various hypes against the regulation， so as to ensure benign operation of this new trade.

Pop Mart， the hottest brand of blind box， was founded in 2010， but it sustained losses successively from 2014 to 2016. However， after it mounted onto the new third board in 2017， in the time of one year it showed a turn from loss to profit， and in 2018 its net profit increased by 140 fold than 2016. Based on research， Guotai Junan Securities published an article entitled “Curiosity Not Only Kills the Cat but Also Burns Your Wallet”.