歐亞聯(lián)通　圓夢(mèng)一場(chǎng)百年的憧憬

Eurasia connectivity： a century-old aspiration

請(qǐng)用三分鐘介紹一下中國(guó)的“一帶一路”倡議。這是筆者常常遇到的挑戰(zhàn)，甚至常有老外要求用一句話給“一帶一路”下定義。

2016年2月2日下午，筆者應(yīng)德國(guó)外交部邀請(qǐng)?jiān)凇氨P點(diǎn)中國(guó)的‘一帶一路’倡議”內(nèi)部研討會(huì)上，本來要求十分鐘介紹“一帶一路”進(jìn)展與中歐互聯(lián)互通平臺(tái)時(shí)，又遇到了這種情形。德國(guó)外交國(guó)務(wù)秘書和大使在開幕式致辭時(shí)拋出一系列問題：“一帶一路”到底想干什么？是否意味著歐亞大陸地緣政治的回歸？如何處理與歐盟睦鄰政策、中亞政策的關(guān)系？與歐盟、歐安組織的互聯(lián)互通計(jì)劃如何對(duì)接？……筆者發(fā)言時(shí)先得占用正式發(fā)言的三分鐘做出簡(jiǎn)潔回應(yīng)。當(dāng)晚，應(yīng)我國(guó)駐德國(guó)大使館邀請(qǐng)，在“全球之橋”（global bridge）晚宴上，又用三分鐘向在座的德國(guó)聯(lián)邦議員、企業(yè)家和美國(guó)前駐德國(guó)大使、記者闡述“一帶一路”。

如果一句話來描述“一帶一路”，就是互聯(lián)互通，實(shí)現(xiàn)包容性全球化。

為什么說全球化不夠包容？自從古絲綢之路中斷后，歐洲人走向海洋，通過地理大發(fā)現(xiàn)殖民世界，開啟所謂的全球化。然而，這是真正的全球化嗎？打開“夜晚的世界”圖可以發(fā)現(xiàn)，只有日本、北美和歐洲發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家沿海地區(qū)燈火輝煌，證明實(shí)現(xiàn)了現(xiàn)代化，而在世界的其他地方衛(wèi)星上看不到燈光，依然生活在“貧困的黑暗”之中，所以“一帶一路”就是要讓所有人在晚上都有電，見到光，這才是搞工業(yè)化。按照世界銀行數(shù)據(jù)，當(dāng)今世界產(chǎn)出的80%來自于沿海地區(qū)的一百公里的地帶，因?yàn)榈厍?1%的面積被海洋覆蓋，90%的貿(mào)易通過海洋進(jìn)行。這種西方中心的海洋型“全球化”其實(shí)是“部分全球化”（partial globalization），我們還需要更多的互聯(lián)互通，幫助內(nèi)陸地區(qū)尋找海洋，幫助南南國(guó)家實(shí)現(xiàn)工業(yè)化，助推人類文明的共同復(fù)興，打造更包容的全球化（inclusive globalization）.

如何實(shí)現(xiàn)歐亞互聯(lián)互通？15世紀(jì)奧斯曼土耳其帝國(guó)的崛起切斷了兩千年的古絲綢之路，歐洲人被迫走向海洋，導(dǎo)致歐亞大陸文明的衰落。重振絲綢之路成為絲綢之路沿線許多國(guó)家的共同夢(mèng)想。然而自古以來，打通歐亞大陸靠戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)、靠征服，從大流士、亞歷山大、愷撤、奧斯曼、成吉思汗到近代的西方殖民戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)。人類步入鐵路時(shí)代，歐亞鐵路計(jì)劃為實(shí)現(xiàn)歐亞大陸互聯(lián)互通的百年夢(mèng)想提供技術(shù)支撐。于是有了德國(guó)一戰(zhàn)前的柏林一巴格達(dá)鐵路規(guī)劃，有了聯(lián)合國(guó)開發(fā)計(jì)劃署的歐亞大陸橋設(shè)想。在人類從傳統(tǒng)鐵路邁入高速鐵路的進(jìn)程中，中國(guó)實(shí)現(xiàn)了彎道超車，在短短10年時(shí)間修建了2萬(wàn)公里的高鐵（占世界的3/4以上），一躍成為高鐵大國(guó)、高鐵強(qiáng)國(guó)。這就是中國(guó)提出“一帶一路”的底氣。而中國(guó)充足的外匯儲(chǔ)備和強(qiáng)大的建造能力，則是“一帶一路”建設(shè)的重要資本。

“一帶一路”提出實(shí)現(xiàn)“五通”：政策溝通、設(shè)施聯(lián)通、貿(mào)易暢通、資金融通、民心相通，這就從時(shí)間上超越歐洲一體化的商品、勞動(dòng)力、服務(wù)及貨幣的四大自由流通;空間上實(shí)現(xiàn)陸海聯(lián)通，東西呼應(yīng)，實(shí)現(xiàn)規(guī)模、系統(tǒng)效應(yīng)，才能徹底降低物流成本，提升內(nèi)陸地區(qū)的比較競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力，讓歐亞大陸互聯(lián)互通計(jì)劃獲得可持續(xù)發(fā)展，超越了古絲綢之路與傳統(tǒng)全球化。

在“一帶一路”框架下，圓夢(mèng)歐亞大陸互聯(lián)互通的百年憧憬，攜手開創(chuàng)全球化3.0版，融通中國(guó)夢(mèng)與世界夢(mèng)：

如果我們把作為古代東西方貿(mào)易與文明交流之路的絲綢之路稱為全球化1.0時(shí)代：其單元是文明，載體是歐亞大陸，動(dòng)力是貿(mào)易+文化，遵循的“和平合作、開放包容、互學(xué)互鑒、互利共贏”的絲路精神;把近代西方開創(chuàng)的全球化稱為全球化2.0時(shí)代：以民族國(guó)家為單元，通過海洋實(shí)現(xiàn)全球貿(mào)易+投資擴(kuò)張，確立西方中心世界：那么，“一帶一路”是21世紀(jì)的跨洲際合作倡議，不只是打通歷史上中斷的絲綢之路，而是借助絲綢之路的歷史概念，開創(chuàng)創(chuàng)新型全球化——全球化3.0時(shí)代：秉承“萬(wàn)物互聯(lián)”（ANT all things connected），運(yùn)用3D打印機(jī)、大數(shù)據(jù)和智慧城市，推動(dòng)E-WTO進(jìn)程，開發(fā)和應(yīng)用包容性技術(shù)——改變傳統(tǒng)技術(shù)讓強(qiáng)者更強(qiáng)、弱者更弱的狀態(tài)，創(chuàng)新和實(shí)施包容性制度安排——推動(dòng)國(guó)際貿(mào)易、投資規(guī)則更加公正、合理、包容，開創(chuàng)包容性全球化——實(shí)現(xiàn)持久和平、共同繁榮的千年夢(mèng)想。

“Please brief on China's Belt and Road Initiativewithin three minutes." This is a question I alwaysmeet， and some foreigners even ask me to give adefinition of the Belt and Road with one sentence.

In the afternoon on February 2， 2016， I was invitedby German Federal Foreign Office for an internalsenunar themed "Taking stock of China's Belt andRoad Initiative". Originally I was asked to introduce theprogress of the Initiative and "EU-China ConnectivityPlatform" within 10 minutes， yet I encountered thesame question again. At the opening ceremony， the StateSecretary of the Federal Foreign Office， Germany， raisedquestions one afier another： what's the purpose of theBelt and Road？ Does it mean the regression of Eurasia'sgeopolitics？ How to balance its relations with the EU'sGood Neighbor Policy and Central Asia policy？ Howto get it integrated with the connectivity plans of EUand the Organization for Security and Co-operation inEurope （OSCE）？ I was asked to spare three minutesfrom my formal speech to answer these questionsconcisely. At that evening， I attended the "GlobalBridge" banquet at the invitation of Chinese embassyin Germany. Once again，l briefed on the Belt and Roadfor Bundestag members， entrepreneurs， former U.S.ambassador to Germany， and reporters within threeminutes.

The Belt and Road can be described as "connectivityand inclusive globalization".

Globalization is not inclusive enough， why？ Sinceancient Silk Road was disrupted， Europeans started toembrace the sea， and then colonized the world throughthe Age of Discovery. Yet， is it globalization in realsense？ Open the map of "the world at night"， youcan see that well-illuminated belts can only be foundin Japan， North America， and developed Europeancountries， where modemization has been realized;yet no light can be found in other parts of the worldfrom a satellite， where people are still living in "thedarkness of poverty". The Belt and Road is designedto make people around the world have access topower and light at night， which is the prerequisite ofindustrialization. Data of the World Bank shows that80% of world output comes from the lOOkm-belt ofcoastal regions. With 71% of earth surface covered bysea， 90% of trade has been done via sea. Such West-centric ocean-based "globalization" is actually "partialglobalization". That is why we need to realize greaterconnectivity： help inland regions to find sea， helpsouth-south countries to realize industrialization， pushfor the common revitalization of human civilizations，and build more inclusive globalization.

How to realize Eurasia connectivity？ In the15th century the rise of Ottoman Empire cut off thetwo millennia-old ancient Silk Road. As a result，Europeans were forced to walk into the ocean，hencethe decline of Eurasia civilization. It is the sharedaspiration of many countries along the Silk Roadto revitalize the route. Yet since ancient times， fromDarius I （the Great）， Alexander the Great， JuliusCaesar， Osman I， Genghis Khan， to westem colonistsin modern times， they all connected different partsof Eurasia through wars and conquering. Enteringrailway age， Eurasian railway project has providedteclmological support for Eurasia connectivity，a century-old aspiration. Then came the Berlin-Baghdad railway planning， and the UNDP's visionof Eurasia Land Bridge. As conventional railway isreplaced by high-speed rail， China has realized cornerovertaking： building 20，000 kilometers （more thanthree quarters ofthe world total） of high-speed railwaywithin 10 years and thus emerging as a big powerof high-speed railway. These achievements makeChina confident enough to propose the Belt and Road.Meanwhile， China boasts abundant foreign exchangereserve and construction capability， which underpinthe Belt and Road.

The Belt and Road Initiative features five targets：policy coordination， facilities connectivity unimpededtrade， financial integration， and people-to-peoplebond. In time dimension， it will enable the free flowof commodities， labor， services， and currencies whichwere not aclueved by the European Integration. Inspace dimension， it will connect land and sea， andWest and East， realize scaled system effects， thusreducing logistics costs once for all and enhancing thecomparative competitiveness of inland regions. In thisway， Eurasia connectivity plan will realize sustainabledevelopment while transcending ancient Silk Roadand traditional globalization.

The Belt and Road Initiative is designed to realizethe century-old aspiration of Eurasia connectivity andintegrate Chinese Dream and the world's dream byjointly launching Globalization 3.0.

If we call the ancient Silk Road， which enabledwestern and eastern trade and cultural exchanges，as an era of Globalization l.0， then its unit wascivilization， vehicle was Eurasia， and driver wastrade + culture， in following the Silk Road spirit of"peaceful cooperation， openness and inclusiveness，mutual learning， and win-win"; if we call the modernWest-initiated globalization as Globalization 2.0，then its unit was national state， and ocean was usedto realize global trade + investment expansion and tobuild a West-centric world; then the Belt and Roadis a transcontinental cooperation initiative of the21st century and aims at not only connecting theonce-broken Silk Road， but more importantly， usingthe historic concept of Silk Road to embark on anew era of innovation-driven globalization， namelyGlobalization 3.0： following the vision of "ANT allthings connected"， 3D printer， big data and smart citywill be leveraged to push for E-WTO， and developand apply inclusive technologies. While breakingaway from the outdated rule of"let the strong strongerand the weak weaker"， efforts will be made to identifyand implement inclusive institutional arrangements，realize fairer， more rational and inclusive internationaltrade and investment rules， bring about inclusiveglobalization， and materialize the millennia-old dreamof enduring peace and common prosperity.