Scientific Understanding of China’s Belt and Road Initiative and Related Themes for Study

Scientific Understanding of China’s Belt and Road Initiative and Related Themes for Study

Liu Weidong＊

The Belt and Road Initiative refers to the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road. As a new mode of international economic cooperation proposed by China to expand economic globalization, the Initiative is aimed at promoting orderly and free flow of economic factors, highly efficient allocation of resources and deep integration of markets, encouraging the countries along the Belt and Road to achieve economic policy coordination and carry out broader and more in-depth regional cooperation with higher standards, and jointly creating an open, inclusive and balanced regional economic cooperation architecture that benefits all. The initiative contains novel ideas in that the real spirit of the Silk Road is“peace and cooperation, openness and inclusiveness, mutual learning and mutual benefit.”Analyzing the Belt and Road Initiative in the context of economic globalization and the changing configuration worldwide, this article explores the initiative’ s spatial connotation by revealing its multi-layered and trans-scale features, and points out that the Initiative coordinates the all-around opening-up of China. This article also suggests some geographic research themes under the Initiative including geopolitical studies, country-based geography, foreign direct investment theories and optimization of transportation coordination.

the Belt and Road Initiative; Silk Road; economic globalization; geopolitics

1. Introduction

At the Boao Forum for Asia held in Hainan on March 27, 2015, the Chinese National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of ForeignAffairs and the Ministry of Commerce jointly issued theVision and Actions on Jointly Building the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road(hereinafter referred to asVision and Actions) (National Development and Reform Commission et al., 2015). This marks that “The Belt and Road Initiative” steps into the stage of comprehensive construction which will have an historical influence on China. If in the first 30 years of reform and opening-up, China deeply participated in economic globalization by actively “inviting in,” the Belt and Road Initiative (here after referred to as “the Initiative”) which marks the coming of a new phase of globalization characterized by China’s “going out”. Since President Xi Jinping proposed the Silk Road Economic Belt in Kazakhstan on September 7, 2013 and the joint buildup of the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road in Indonesia on October 3, in the same year, the Initiative has drawn much attention from varied circles at home and abroad, including the academic field. However, due to the lack of official interpretation of the Initiative, understandings of the Initiative by the various circles were more or less speculative.The Vision and Actionsmakes the Initiative more public and transparent, bringing about the possibility of a scientific reading to the Initiative and an understanding of the research themes therein.

According tothe Vision and Actions, the Initiative is aimed at promoting orderly and free flow of economic factors, highly efficient allocation of resources and deep integration of markets, encouraging the countries along the Belt and Road to achieve economic policy coordination and carry out broader and more in-depth regional cooperation with higher standards, and jointly creating an open, inclusive and balanced regional economic cooperation architecture that benefits all (National Development and Reform Commission et. al., 2015). It shows that on the premise of conforming to the current trend and world developing mechanism, China expects to integrate into the global economic system more deeply and to play a more active role in leading the world’s economic development. However, the framework of the Initiative, which contains ideas regarding economic globalization is quite different from those of the past, namely;“peace and cooperation, openness and inclusiveness, mutual learning and mutual benefits.” Moreover, it emphasizes that “It should be jointly built through consultation to meet the interests of all.” The Belt and Road Initiative can be expressed simply as; “one core concept” (peace, cooperation, development and mutual benefit), “five key points of cooperation”(policy coordination, facilities connectivity, unimpeded trade, financial integration and peopleto-people bonds) and “three communities” (the communities of shared interests, destiny and responsibility). The Initiative is an inevitable result of the changes in economic patterns in the world and the deepening of economic globalization. The scientific connotation and its thematic issues involved need to be carefully studied.

2. Cultural Connotation of the Silk Road

The phrase “silk road” appears in both the Silk Road Economic Belt and The 21st Century Maritime Silk Road. However, the Belt and Road Initiative is not to reconstruct the international trade routes of the past. What the Initiative means is the cultural connotation of the Silk Road, namely, peace, friendship, communication and prosperity, which form the core concepts in theVision and Actions.

The world economy today features an in-depth economic integration among countries and a welldeveloped trade system, and it makes sense to say the economic activities and people’s life cannot be sustained without trade. People are so familiar withtoday’s trade that even the flourish trade in ancient times is forgotten. China’s trading activities with other Euro-Asian countries date back to the Spring and Autumn Period and the Warring States period (even to the Shang and Zhou dynasties) (Nan Yu, 2012). After the Han Dynasty, trade in China was gradually dominated and even monopolized by the government, resulting in continued expansion in both scale and scope. During the heyday, China traded with most countries in Eurasia as well as North Africa and East Africa. Historically, no proper noun was coined to define those international longdistance trading routes. In 1877, German geographer Ferdinand von Richthofen created the term Silk Road to denote the ancient trading routes in his bookChina: The Results of My Travels and the Studies based thereon(Waugh, 2007). But he used Silk Road only to refer to the Central China-Hexi Corridor-Tarim Basin-Central Asia-Mediterranean trading route. It was so termed because silk was the major commodity traded via the route from the Han to the Tang Dynasty. Since then, the term Silk Road, which has a strong historical and cultural connotation, has gained wide recognition and extended applications. The historic Southern Tea Road (Zhu Luli, 1991) and the trading routes on North China’s prairies (Liu Yingsheng, 1995), as well as the maritime trading routes since the Song and Yuan dynasties (Han Huchu, 2004) are also called the Silk Road. Of course, major products for trade on these routes are not limited to silk, varying from one historical period to another. During the Song, Yuan and Ming dynasties, trading products on the maritime Silk Road mainly include silk, porcelain, tea and spices. The Silk Road is not only a synonym for ancient trade but also an historic symbol of cultural exchanges between China and Eurasia (Chen Yan, 1997). With trade and people-to-people exchanges countries along the Silk Road learned from each other, creating splendid cultures.

Past studies of the Silk Road are mainly limited on history and cultural relics, and such studies lack utilitarian significance. Since the Initiative was proposed, however, there was a fever to excavate historical and cultural relics related to the Silk Road to establish their positions in the Initiative. While such practice has a certain significance, the connotation of the Silk Road in the Initiative is obviously misunderstood. Historically, the scope and direction of the Silk Road were subjected to changes in geographical environments, conditions of economic development, and the evolution of politics and religion. The outline of today’s Silk Road is simply a picture taken by those who envision thousands of years of Chinese history in a single moment. In fact, the Silk Road should not be literally interpreted as a spatial phenomenon with fixed routes. The Road today is more an abstract cultural symbol than a physical construction with actual existence. Throughout its history, the Silk Road was often interrupted by wars and mainly existed during peaceful eras, and common prosperity was brought about by commercial and cultural exchanges along the road. Therefore, the cultural connotation of the Silk Road can be summed up in four words; peace, friendship, exchanges and prosperity. From this perspective, the Chinese government borrows the Silk Road as a cultural symbol to deliver an idea, namely; “peace, cooperation, development, and mutual benefit.”

3. The Initiative and Economic Globalization

According toVision and Actions, the Initiative is not to “start all over again,” but “to uphold the global free trade regime and the open world economy”(National Development and Reform Commission, 2015). The Initiative was formulated with the backdrop of world-configuration adjustmentand became an important framework to deepen economic globalization. However, the framework is not simply an extension of the past economic globalization but a new form of globalization, with its defining feature being the cultural connotation of the Silk Road. To put it another way, the Initiative manifests inclusive globalization and does not deviate from the basic mechanism of economic globalization, the liberalization of investment and trade.

The emergence and development of economic globalization is closely related to the popularity of neoliberalism. Two world oil crises in the 1970s marked the end of booming economic growth for more than 20 years following World War II and the beginning of serious stagnation in developed countries. To find a way out of their woes, the UK and the US abandoned “Keynes’ national welfare”policy and turned to neoliberalism as a prescription, which advocates the policy of reducing government intervention and full privatization. They began large-scale overseas capital exports and industrial transfers and moved into the stage of global capitalism expansion. To meet the need of capital export, neoliberalism was regarded as the theoretical basis for investment and trade liberalization. A typical case here is the Washington Consensus led by the United States as the prescription for Latin America and the restructuring countries in Eastern Europe. Liberalization in trade and economy, complete market mechanism and full privatization make up the core in the Consensus. Unfortunately, few countries adopting the Washington Consensus escaped their economic woes. China, on the other hand, which combined government intervention with market adjustments, achieved leapfrog economic growth. Economic globalization based on neoliberalism shaped the world’s configuration during the past 30 years, while the regulatory modes of neoliberalism in financial markets led to the 2008 global financial crisis. Under the economic globalization based on neoliberalism, therefore, capital turned out to be the biggest winner, while society paid a huge price. In such context, both developed countries like the UK and the US and developing countries like China must think about reforming the governance mode to promote further development through economic globalization. In this aspect, the Initiative makes a useful try.

Since the 1980s, China has been deeply involved in the process of economic globalization through gradual reform and opening-up. On the one hand, China achieved fast economic growth through introducing investment, technology and management experience. On the other hand, China has gradually established its own governance mechanism to adapt to economic globalization. It should be admitted that China’s rapid economic development benefits from economic globalization, but China also made great contributions to the growth of the world economy, changing the economy pattern of the world. At the beginning of China’s reform and opening-up, its gross domestic product (GDP) accounted for only about 5% of the world’s GDP, exports making up less than 1.5% of the world’s total. By 2013, China’s share in world’s GDP rose to 12.3 %, with the ratio of its export value accounting for 12%. China became the world’s second largest economy in 2010 and the No. 1 goods trader in 2013. Moreover, China’s contribution to the world’s economic growth rate remains around 30% since the global financial crisis in 2008 (27.8% in 2014). Although China’s economy cannot currently be deemed as strong, its huge economic size ($10 trillion in 2014) is enough to make China a shaping force in the global economy. Given the trend that world economic ties are getting closer and closer, development and change of such a large economy will have a significant impact on other related countries. In this context, the Initiative is China’s promise to deepen economicglobalization, and it also represents China’s effort to preserve the achievements and mechanism of economic globalization.

In the long run, China’s rise over past 30 years is the biggest change in the world economic pattern in the past 100 years. It is also one of the major events of changes of the world economic pattern in the past 300 years. According to estimate of Angus Maddison, an economic historian, China’s GDP accounted for nearly 1/3 of the global GDP in the middle of the 18th Century, while the United States’ share was insignificant (Maddison, 2007; Dicken, 2010). When the PRC was founded 200 years later, China’s proportion dropped to 1/20, while the United States increased to 27% (Figure 1). Till the beginning of China’s reform and openingup, its GDP accounted for about 5% of the amount of global GDP (Figure 2). After more than 30 years of rapid growth, China’s share of the world’s GDP now approaches 12.5%. Accordingly, the United States’ share of GDP in the world total has dropped to about 22%. With the rise of China, the economic share of East Asia in the world exceeds that of the United States. This marks the coming of an Asian century. As a big country, China is responsible for better economic growth in Asia and the world. However, China’s share in international financial institutions is currently very low. In the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the Asian Development Bank, for example, China only accounted for 5.17%, 3.81% and 3.81% respectively in the voting rights, and China can hardly play a role which is proportionate to its size in promoting world economic growth. In this sense, the Initiative is an important solution to such an irrational situation.

In terms of its own stage of development, China’s economic growth goes into the NewNormal. On the one hand, the demographic dividend that has lasted for more than 30 years is disappearing gradually. The rapid rise in labor costs leads to the loss of competitive advantages in some laborintensive industries. This accords with the basic periodic law of economic globalization, where largescale industrial transfer happens every thirty or forty years. On the other hand, due to overly optimistic capacity expansion for more than 10 years, some businesses in the raw material industry in China have overcapacity with the slowdown of economic growth. They are not lagging in production capacity or techniques, but domestic oversupply forces them to transfer. In addition, China’s huge consumer market also breeds several large enterprises, which are becoming multinational companies with multinational investments and global operational capabilities. These factors mark China’s entry into a large-scale “going global” period. As it can be seen from Figure 3b, China’s foreign direct investment has had a big growth spurt since 2004 or more obviously since 2008, which was only $5.5 billion in 2004. The figure rose to $55.9 billion in 2008 and $140 billion in 2014. It increased 25 times in 10 years. This growth trend is similar to foreign direct investment of the developed countries in Europe and America in the 1980s and 1990s (Figure 3a). As a result, the mechanisms that China adopts in“going global” will affect many countries, be it the mechanism of neoliberalism globalization or the inclusive one. Through joint build-up of the Belt and Road, the chosen mechanism of economic globalization will be improved as much as possible to avoid its negative effects. The Initiative meets the need for China’s “going global” and will make globalization beneficial to more countries and regions.

The Belt and Road Initiative is a Chinese mode of economic globalization, and an effort to promote sound development through globalization. The Initiative is not a solo project by China, nor a Chinese version of the Marshall Plan. Instead, it is an international cooperation platform which promotes regional win-win and development through economic globalization.

4. Spatial Connotation of the Initiative

Outwardly, the Initiative is a highly selective concept in space because both “belt” and “road”literally means stripe-shaped economic entities, which are exclusive in space. Such superficial understanding has caused a lot of misunderstanding to the Initiative. For example, some provinces thinkthey hold a special and exclusive position in the Initiative, while others think they have nothing to do with it. In fact, the Initiative is a trans-scale concept which bears multi-layered spatial connotations.

First, the Initiative is not a closed system. It has no absolute boundary, and its location cannot be accurately mapped. Fundamentally, the Initiative is an open and inclusive network of international economic cooperation, and any country can choose to join the Initiative. It is by no means an exclusive platform. Although the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs once mentioned over 60 countries and a population of about 4 billion along the Belt and Road,Vision and Actionsdoes not prescribe a specific boundary or the list of countries for the Initiative. Instead, it points out that the Belt and Road runs through Asia, Europe and Africa.

Second, because the Initiative is a meganetwork of international economic cooperation, most cooperative activities are inevitably carried out among the countries that do not border each other. The Initiative is not sub-regional cooperation within neighboring countries. Within China,Vision and Actionsdoes mention some provinces and cities (National Development and Reform Commission, 2015). For example, Xinjiang and Fujian are said to be the core areas of the Initiative, and Xi’an will be built into a new height of opening-up in interior China.Vision and Actionsalso said that Chongqing, Chengdu, Zhengzhou, Wuhan, Nanchang, Hefei, Changsha are the leading areas of opening-up in the inland regions, while Shanghai, Tianjin, Ningbo, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen are coastal cities to be strengthened. In spite of this, it does not mean these provinces and cities have the exclusive positions. In fact, all regions can participate in the construction of the Belt and Road. The co-construction tasks, including economic and trade cooperation, cultural cooperation and financial cooperation are not absolutely the exclusive job of the above-mentioned provinces and regions. Some provinces which are closer to countries along the Belt and Road in trade and cultural exchanges are not mentioned, such as Shandong and Jiangsu. Some provinces and regions inVision and Actionsare mentioned with aims to combine the regional development within China with the Initiative, and this will form interactions among East China, Central China and West China, promote the development of relative balance, and enhance the levels of opening-up as soon as possible. It is not limited to the certain mentioned areas.

下肢康復(fù)訓(xùn)練后期，患者需要接受主動(dòng)訓(xùn)練來提高主動(dòng)參與度并且進(jìn)一步促進(jìn)肌肉力量的恢復(fù)。因此，提出了基于模糊自適應(yīng)阻抗的主動(dòng)訓(xùn)練控制，通過檢測(cè)人機(jī)交互作用力來判斷患者的主動(dòng)運(yùn)動(dòng)意圖，基于人機(jī)交互作用力提出主動(dòng)控制算法。在主動(dòng)訓(xùn)練時(shí)，引入阻抗控制保證康復(fù)機(jī)器人與患者下肢的相容性，并且采用模糊自適應(yīng)邏輯對(duì)阻抗參數(shù)實(shí)時(shí)調(diào)整。

Third, the Initiative involves infrastructural connectivity, especially the constructions of major land and sea routes for international transportation, and the routes do have specific locations or spatial scope. For example,Vision and Actionsproposed “the Silk Road Economic Belt focuses on bringing together China, Central Asia, Russia and Europe (the Baltic); linking China with the Persian Gulf and the Mediterranean Sea through Central Asia and West Asia; and connecting China with Southeast Asia, South Asia and the Indian Ocean. The 21st Century Maritime Silk Road is from China’s coast to Europe through the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean in one route, and from China’s coast through the South China Sea to the South Pacific in the other.” (National Development and Reform Commission, 2015). Also, it says that“the Initiative will focus on jointly building a new Eurasian Land Bridge and developing China-Mongolia-Russia, China-Central Asia-West Asia and China-Indochina Peninsula economic corridors.”The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor also require greater progress. Much infrastructure will be built on these channels and corridors with specific locations. Connectivity, as one of the Initiative’s “five goals,” is more likely carried out within sub-regions, while the other “four goals” involve more cooperation among countries inbigger scopes.

Due to insufficient understanding of the multilayered spatial and trans-scale features, some Chinese scholars, officials, and media are used to taking the Initiative as a Chinese framework for regional development. This causes confusion to some extent. The Initiative is a national long-term plan for China’s all-round opening-up, and it also aims to jointly build an open and inclusive network of international economic cooperation with the countries along the Belt and Road. Thus, it must be a national initiative rather than a regional one. Thanks to its multi-layered feature in space, this national initiative also has significant impact on regions. However, if the Initiative is called China’s regional initiative just because of its regional influence, its position and role will be weakened. Doubts will arise from participating countries. Therefore, the Initiative cannot be deemed as equal to the “Collaborative Development Plan of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region”or the “Yangtze River Industrial Belt”, which are just China’s regional economic plans in the new era.

5. Geographic Research Themes on the Initiative

The Initiative is China’s new concept of development and new mode of international and regional cooperation to deepen economic globalization. Joint buildup of the Belt and Road brings about quite a few research themes for scholars. Of these, geographic themes that need to be further studied include: a. Core elements and driving mechanisms of geopolitical relations in the era of globalization; b. Geographic research on countries along the Belt and Road; c. Theories on foreign direct investment under the framework of the Initiative; and d. Spatial coordination for land and sea transportation.

Geopolitics is a traditional field for geographic study. Fundamentally, geopolitics explores the relationships between geographical factors (locations, ethnicity, and economic strength) and the political behavior of the national majority, especially geographical factors that safeguard the national interests. In modern history, the emerging powers have attached much importance to geopolitical study, and therein emulated many influential geopoliticians, such as Friedrich Ratzel (German), Alfred Thayer Mahan (American), and Halford Mackinder (British). For various reasons, geopolitical study in China is very weak, with few research fellows and little published literature. China’s rising international position calls for more geopolitical studies. The buildup of the Initiative will undoubtedly involve coordination of interests among participating countries and affect the adjustment of international configurations. Inevitably, this is a changing process of geopolitical patterns. Therefore, the geopolitical foundation of the Initiative, its influence on geopolitical configurations, and geopolitical theories in accord with the Initiative are unavoidable research themes in the geographic circle.

Visions and Actionsadvocates the principle of“wide consultation, joint construction and shared benefits.” The key to effectively promoting the Initiative is that the countries along the line should jointly identify projects of common interests and mutual-benefits. And this cannot be done without communication on relevant policies and construction plans from related countries. To consult and communicate smoothly, mutual understanding needs to be deepened in many fields, including politics, law, administration, culture, religion, economy, social structure, resources, the environment, and difference between governance structures. These are topics in country-based geographic study. Over the past 30 years, due to the value orientation and the strong demand in domestic construction markets, Chinese geographic studies on world geography or foreign geography have been shrinking, andChina’s knowledge of many countries along the Belt and Road has remained unchanged for decades. This will affect communications and consultation between China and the countries to some extent and unnecessary risks cannot be avoided. Therefore, it is imperative that country-based geographic studies along the Belt and Road be carried out.

The Initiative will be a process of deepened globalization characterized by China’s “going global.”It needs theories of foreign direct investment for support. Since the 1970s when capital from developed countries began “going global” on a large scale, theories of foreign direct investment have been important research themes for international geography and business circles. The early theory of new international division of labor, the Eclectic Paradigm of International Production by John H.Dunning, and the 1990s’ network theory, all play a guiding role in foreign direct investment in developed countries. However, the existing theories of foreign direct investment are mainly based on the experience of these countries, and are extremely influenced by Neoliberalism. We need to wait and see whether these theories can effectively guide the Initiative. Therefore, it would be a new geographic research theme to test the existing theories of foreign direct investment with the Initiative’s projects to find the key variables, and to modify or reconstruct the theories.

A prominent feature of the Belt and Road is optimization of transporting organization in trade. For more than a century, due to continuous development of shipping technology, international trade was done mainly through sea routes. Other modes of transport are incomparable to ocean shipping because of its convenience and low cost. But it is time-consuming. For example, shipping time from China’s coastal ports to Europe is generally more than 30 days. The cost and speed of road (rail) transporting are higher than shipping but lower than airlifting. Because of Customs clearance in multiple sovereign states, international rail transport is often cumbersome. Facilities connectivity and unimpeded trade in the Initiative improve comparative advantages of the road (rail) freight. In fact, China has recently opened a variety of “five scheduled trains” such as the Chongqing-Singapore-Europe direct freight train, the Chengdu-Europe express freight train and the Xi’an-Europe freight train. These are preliminary exploration in this respect. In carrying out the Initiative, therefore, how to further optimize transporting coordination for cargo trade is another theme worth deeper study by geographic scholars.

6. Conclusion

The Belt and Road Initiative is a new model of international and regional economic cooperation proposed by China for deepening economic globalization. The Initiative will impact China’s socioeconomic development and all-round opening-up, promote economic development in the countries involved, and improve international economic patterns. It is a national initiative to coordinate China’s all-round opening-up. Although it has a significant regional influence, it cannot be regarded as a regional initiative. To understand the Initiative correctly, we must study the cultural connotation of the Silk Road and the developing trend of economic globalization, and explore the spatial connotation of the Initiative, especially its multi-layered feature in space.

At present and in the long run, it is of strategic importance to provide intellectual support for the Initiative. Due to its rich connotation in geography, the Initiative will bring about opportunities for development of Chinese geography. And it will promote study and innovation in geopolitics, world geography, international direct investment theories, transporting coordination and others.

(Translator: Qian Hongnian; Editor: Jia Fengrong)

This paper has been translated and reprinted with the permission ofProgress in Geography, No.5, Vol.34, May. 2015.

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*Liu Weidong, professor, Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, CAS, Institute of Geographic Sciences

and Natural Resources Research, CAS．