華爾街遍地狼藉

Global financial institutions were in turmoil this month， after the failure of one of the largest and most prestigious American banking firms， Lehman Brothers， on September 15th， and the near-collapse of several other Wall Street institutions， including the famous Merrill Lynch. Until the last minute， it was believed that a buyout would be organized for Lehman Brothers， but no other company was willing to step up.

美國最大最有聲望的投資銀行之一雷曼兄弟公司于9月15日倒閉，華爾街其它金融機構(gòu)也瀕臨崩潰，包括著名的美林證券公司，全球金融機構(gòu)在本月陷入一片混亂當中。直到最后關(guān)頭，人們還認為雷曼兄弟會被收購，但是沒有買家樂意購買。

This failure is the largest bankruptcy in American history. The company was founded in 1850 by the eponymous Lehman Brothers， German immigrants， but was then brought by American Express in 1969. It split from American Express in 1994， becoming one of the largest financial services firms in the United States. As of its bankruptcy， it appears to have had roughly eight hundred billion in debts， and only about six hundred billion in assets.

這是美國有史以來最大一宗破產(chǎn)案。雷曼兄弟是由與之同名的德國移民雷曼兄弟于1850年創(chuàng)立，但在1969年被美國運通收購。1994年，雷曼兄弟從美國運通獨立出來，成為美國最大的金融服務(wù)公司之一。直至破產(chǎn)，雷曼兄弟負債大約8千億美元，然而自身資產(chǎn)只有6千多億美元。

Lehman Brothers' collapse was one result of the sub-prime mortgage crisis which began last year.

Many are also blaming the complexity of the financial instruments used by the firm， which held over thirty billion dollars worth of derivatives， rendering it difficult or even impossible for anybody to follow or predict the actual state of the books. Warren Buffett， the famous investor and founder of Wal-Mart， warned five years ago that 'derivatives will certainly multiply in variety and number under some event makes their toxicity clear. Central banks and governments have so far found no effective way to control， or even monitor， the risks posed by these contracts.'

雷曼兄弟的破產(chǎn)是去年開始的次級抵押貸款危機所導(dǎo)致的結(jié)果。很多人都責怪該公司采用的金融工具過于錯綜復(fù)雜，持有價值超過300億美元的衍生金融工具，讓人很難跟進及預(yù)測實際賬目。沃倫#8226;巴菲特，著名投資者及沃爾瑪創(chuàng)始人，在五年前就警告說“衍生金融工具無疑會以各種形式增多，在特定情況下這種激增會明顯暴露出其危害性。央行和政府目前尚無有效方式控制，或甚至監(jiān)測由這些交易帶來的風險?！?/p>

Merrill Lynch， a century-old firm， was also badly affected by the mortgage crisis. Long a symbol of American financial power and stability， the conditions under which Merrill Lynch might fall were once described by a staffer as \"when flaming rocks fall from the sky. \" However， only a last-minute buyout by the Bank of America averted a complete collapse of the firm， whose stocks had fallen rapidly.

有著百年歷史的美林證券公司也受到次貸危機的強烈沖擊。美林長久以來象征著美國的金融實力及穩(wěn)定性，當其瀕臨倒閉時，一名職員將此描述為“橫空飛來的火石”。然而，在最后一刻，美國銀行出手收購了股票已急速下跌的美林，扭轉(zhuǎn)了美林破產(chǎn)的命運。

Also under threat was the insurance group AIG， whose credit rating was downgraded by all three major ratings firms on September 16th， with the threat of further downgrading to follow if the firm could not put its books in order. Credit ratings are vital to large corporations， and losing a high credit rating is often the first step to bankruptcy. As a result， the American Federal Bank bought an 80% share of AIG for $85 billon， as its collapse could have catastrophic effects throughout the American and worldwide markets.

保險商AIG（美國國際集團）也同樣出現(xiàn)惡兆，該集團于9月16日被三大評級機構(gòu)調(diào)降評級，如果公司不能理清賬目，將面臨評級繼續(xù)下調(diào)的威脅。信用評級對大公司來說至關(guān)重要，調(diào)降評級通常是走向破產(chǎn)的第一步。結(jié)果，因為AIG的崩潰會對美國甚至全球市場造成災(zāi)難性惡果，美國聯(lián)邦銀行以850億美元買下AIG 80%的股份。

Sub-Prime Mortgages and the Credit Crunch

次級抵押貸款和信貸緊縮

Over the last twenty years， real estate in the West has risen massively and rapidly in value.Housing， previously seen as a safe， slow investment， became the subject of massive speculation， with many families taking out mortgages of 90% or even 120%， in the anticipation of a sharp rise in the sale price in the future. Banks were also willing to finance these mortgages even when the borrowers had a poor credit rating or an insecure source of income. These risky loans were known as sub-prime mortgages. Many banks have been accused of exploitative business practice with such loans including misinforming buyers， especially about adjustable rate mortgages.

在過去20年當中，西方房地產(chǎn)價格大幅度快速上漲。住房先前被看作是安全而慢速的投資，現(xiàn)已經(jīng)成為大規(guī)模投機買賣的目標，許多家庭辦理了90%甚至120%的抵押貸款，期望未來能以激漲的價格售出。即便貸款者信用度低或沒有經(jīng)濟來源保障，銀行也很樂意提供抵押貸款。這種高風險貸款就稱為次級抵押貸款。許多銀行因這種貸款包括誤導(dǎo)買家，尤其是可調(diào)整性抵押貸款等被指控采用商業(yè)剝削手段。

Meanwhile， other financial institutions invested heavily in buying up such mortgages in bulk from the banks. As a result of this demand， the standards of mortgages fell even lower， with many being so-called NINA (no-income， no-asset) loans， essentially made without any gurantees that the borrower would ever be able to repay the money. In one case in Ohio， 23 dead people were approved for mortgages.

同時，其它的金融機構(gòu)從銀行買下大量抵押貸款權(quán)。這種需求的結(jié)果便是抵押貸款的標準降至更低，很多被稱為NINA（沒有收入，沒有資產(chǎn)）貸款，這種貸款者是否有能力償還貸款基本上沒有任何保障。俄亥俄州有一個例子，有23名已經(jīng)去世的人被批準抵押貸款。

When the U.S. housing bubble burst at the end of 2006， and house prices began to fall rather than rise， hundreds of thousands of people were unable to pay their mortgages. Even if the bank foreclosed on their homes， the value of the houses was now considerably less than the loans the banks had made them. Since so many other people were invested in these mortgages， everyone experienced massive losses.

當2006美國房地產(chǎn)泡沫破裂及房屋價格下跌而不是上漲時，數(shù)十萬人無力償還抵押貸款。即使銀行取消貸款人房屋贖回權(quán)，如今房屋的價值遠遠低于銀行當初借貸出去的價值。因為有那么多的人都對抵押貸款做出了投資，每個人都損失慘重。

As a result， businesses everywhere are experiencing a credit crunch， a period where loans suddenly become more difficult or more costly to obtain. Having suffered from risky loans， people are now highly reluctant to make anything other than the safest investments. Since many businesses， especially new ones， rely on an easy flow of credit， this has caused huge problems for companies everywhere. The loss of confidence in investments has also hurt the stock markets， with large falls everywhere from London to Tokyo.

最終，各行業(yè)都處于信貸緊縮狀態(tài)，都處于貸款驟然變得更艱難及需要付出更多代價才能得到的時期。由于遭到了高風險貸款帶來的慘重打擊，人們現(xiàn)在極度不愿意做出任何投資，除非是十拿九穩(wěn)。因為很多企業(yè)，尤其是剛起步的新企業(yè)，都是倚靠流動性高的信貸，信貸緊縮便給各企業(yè)帶來了嚴重的問題。投資信心喪失同時也重創(chuàng)股市，從倫敦到東京，各地股市大幅度下跌。

Chinese banks and markets have not， so far， experienced as severe damage from the credit crunch as Western institutions， but there are widespread concerns over the bad debts that many carry.Lending to state-owned enterprises still comprises 60-70% of Chinese banking business， despite state-run companies only making up 30% of Chinese enterprise， and loans are often given at sub-prime rates. The booming construction industry， where loans are easily obtained for sometimes dubious projects， worries many， given that bad debt accumulated through loans to the construction industry was a significant part of the Japanese crisis of 1997.

至今，中國銀行和市場都尚未如西方金融機構(gòu)那樣嚴重受害于信貸緊縮，但由于壞賬過多，憂慮普遍存在。雖然國有公司只占中國企業(yè)的30%，但國有企業(yè)貸款依然占中國銀行業(yè)貸款總額的60%至70%，而且這些貸款通常以次貸利率貸出。急速發(fā)展的建筑業(yè)有時容易以高風險的項目獲得貸款，想到建筑業(yè)貸款累積的壞賬是導(dǎo)致1997年日本經(jīng)濟危機的重要因素，很多人對此深感擔憂。