張文宗文章英譯文

America’s “Double Containment”of China and Russia: Changes and Enlightenment

By Zhang Wenzong, Wang Jingyuan

In the wake of the Ukraine crisis, the US and its key allies have imposed massive financial sanctions, trade restrictions, high-tech export controls,military deterrence and diplomatic isolation on Russia that bear the hallmark of “hard containment” and have used Ukraine for a proxy war. This has made Russia retaliate fiercely, thus plunging the two sides into a new cold war of large scale and high intensity. At the same time, the US has created a situation in which it will not let up on China while confronting Russia. There are also some voices in the strategic circle of the United States about “double containment” of China and Russia, believing that the confict between Russia and Ukraine is just like the Korean War in the 1950s, and the US should use this opportunity to launch a comprehensive containment strategy against China and Russia, such as forming a global democratic alliance, rearming Germany and Japan while expanding its own military, and applying whatever fnancial sanctions, export controls and economic decoupling imposed on Russia to China whenever necessary.

So far, the Biden administration has not seen the Ukraine crisis as “the Korean War of the 21st century” and launched a new cold war around the world. Instead, it has continued “soft containment” of China alongside “hard containment” of Russia. On the one hand, the US keeps in touch with China and tries to build a “guardrail” to avoid military confict. On the other hand,it strengthens the US-Japan-Australia-India Quadrangle Mechanism (Quad)and puts forward the “Indo-Pacific Economic Framework” (IPEF), hence going further and further into the bloc politics against China. The US has also adopted a strategy of reinvigorating the “Great West” and uniting its European and Asia-Pacifc allies against China and Russia, part of which is the creation of a “global NATO”. In an effort to divide China and Russia, senior US officials have repeatedly warned China not to incur serious consequences for providing economic or military aid to Russia or helping it circumvent sanctions. In addition, the US has been escalating its “use of Taiwan to contain China”,deliberately linking the Ukraine crisis with the situation across the Taiwan Strait, and pushing its major allies to intervene in the Taiwan question.

The Ukraine crisis has tested the US’ ability to mobilize allies for largescale economic warfare, and if Russia is severely weakened, it will spur the urge of the United States to engage in “hard containment” of China. After Europe stabilizes and the US is free, especially if the conservative hawks in the United States return to power, extreme measures against China cannot be ruled out. If the US implements “hard containment” against China, the scope of a new cold war will spread from the Western hemisphere to the Eastern hemisphere, and the world political and economic landscape will become more fragmented. Bloc politics, camp rivalries, parallel systems, nuclear arms race,the brink of war and proxy wars will become the “new normal”.

In disregard of China’s strong opposition and solemn representations,Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi recently visited Taiwan, which seriously violated the One-China principle and the three China-US Joint communiqués, infringed upon China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and undermined peace and stability across the Taiwan Straits. The provocative actions of US politicians have forced the Chinese military to conduct military exercises and training in the waters near the Chinese island of Taiwan to deter “Taiwan independence” separatist forces and external interference. Instead of reflecting on the harm its provocative actions have caused to both sides of the Taiwan Straits and the Asia-Pacifc region, the US government has blamed China and continued to increase military pressure on China, further sending wrong signals to the “Taiwan independence” forces. The signifcant deterioration of the situation across the Taiwan Straits increases not only the risk of a new cold war between China and the United States, but also the risk of a military confict between China and the United States.

A new global cold war would have serious negative consequences for all countries, including the United States. To prevent the situation from worsening,the US government should avoid stepping on China’s red line on the Taiwan question, and the people in Taiwan need to be aware of the nature of US support for Taiwan and the harm of “Taiwan independence” separatist forces,so as to avoid falling victim to a proxy war. Responsible politicians, far-sighted strategists and peace-loving people in the United States and Taiwan should be vigilant against the plots and risky actions of the extreme political forces in the United States and Taiwan, and exercise constraints and checking on decisionmaking. The major allies of the United States in Asia should be conscious of the dangers of a new cold war and restrain the extreme actions of the United States.The fact that most Asian countries, especially ASEAN, adhere to the position of not taking sides is of great signifcance to regional peace and stability as well as economic and social development. Western multinational corporations can continue to act as ballast stones between China and the West by making good use of China’s policy of greater openness.

(About the authors: Zhang Wenzong is a Research Professor and Deputy Director at the Institute for American Studies, CICIR; Wang Jingyuan is a graduate student, UIR. This article was received on July 30, 2022.)