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    Abstract

    2021-11-30 15:42:43

    TheCentennialCourseandPolicyProspectoftheCommunistPartyofChinainPromotingEducationalEquity

    CHENXinzhong,XIANGKemi

    AbstractEducational equity is vital to social justice.It has an influence on social stability and development.The Communist Party of China has been adhering to educational equity and considering it as the foundation of the revolution and construction,as well as the engine of the economy and society in the past one hundred years.Much attention has been paid to the equity in educational opportunities and process and emphasis is put on promoting fairness in educational outcomes and striving to achieve fairness in educational prospect.But there are still some issues relating to urban-rural,regional and inter-school imbalances as well as imbalances among teachers,families and students.To continue to promote educational equity,the future education policy of the Communist Party of China should be in line with international vision of educational equity,highlight the Chinese dimension of educational equity,incorporate quality into educational equity,and improve the economy as the basis for educational equity,cultural atmosphere of educational equity and try to meditate some impediments to educational equity.

    Keywordsthe Communist Party of China; educational equity; education policy;centennial course

    TheDevelopmentandRevelationoftheCommunistPartyofChina’sCentennialAnti-povertyCause

    HANMeiqun,YUXuan

    AbstractPoverty is a worldwide problem.From the perspective of poverty alleviation and anti-poverty,the century-old history of the Communist Party of China is a history of leading the people to fight against poverty.Looking back on the century-long anti-poverty history of the CPC,from revolutionary region-wide poverty alleviation and “blood transfusion” relief poverty alleviation,to “blood-making” reform poverty alleviation,“developmental” comprehensive poverty alleviation and scientific targeted poverty alleviation in the new era,at different periods of history,the CPC has always adhered to Marxist anti-poverty theory as its guide,borne the value of “people first” in mind,explored different methods of poverty treatment and alleviation,and formed a path of anti-poverty and development-oriented poverty alleviation with Chinese characteristics,which eventually resolved the problem of absolute poverty that had plagued the Chinese nation for thousands of years in a historical manner.The century-long struggle against poverty has highlighted the political wisdom and governance advantages of the CPC,and provided valuable experience and Chinese wisdom and strength to the global anti-poverty work.

    Keywordsthe Communist Party of China; anti-poverty; rural revitalization; poverty-alleviation

    TheProgressiveLogicandOperationalMechanismoftheCentennialGreatParty’sPromotingtheConstructionofaPowerfulPoliticalPartyThroughTheoreticalInnovationofPartyBuilding

    SONGMeihua

    AbstractThe concept that “only the innovators are strong” is always deeply rooted in the centennial development of the Communist Party of China.In the century-long exploration and practice,the CPC has been continually gaining strength from the theoretical innovation of Party building.The theoretical innovation of Marxist Party building in China is a key link in the chain of building a strong political party.The Chinese Communists have organically combined the Marxist theory of Party building with their own construction practice,and offered creative answers to the main question of “what kind of party to build and how to build the party”,thus achieving a history of theoretical innovation of Marxist Party building in China.It is of great importance to comprehend the consistent thinking pattern of the Chinese Communists’ innovation and development of Party Building Theory on the basis of transcending historical limitations and field adaptability through the evolution logic of the hundred years’ innovation and development of Marxist Party building theory with Chinese characteristics and deepen the understanding of the Chinese Communists’ operation mechanism of innovating and developing the party building theory via practice orientation,discourse construction,spiritual nourishment and implementation efficiency from the aspects of fundamental orientation,external presentation,spiritual nourishment and implementation efficiency,which aims to promote the high-quality development of the Party building through the innovation of Marxist Party Building Theory in China,forge a strong sense of innovation of Party building theory in the practice of building a strong party,and provide scientific theoretical support for better realizing the aspiration of building a strong party.

    Keywordsthe Communist Party of China; strengthening the party with the theory of Party Building; theoretical innovation of Party Building; progressive logic;operating mechanism

    ThePathtoNarrowingRuralIncomeGapUndertheGoalofCommonProsperity——A Quantitative Analysis from the Livelihood Diversification Perspective

    WANGJing,LYUKaiyu

    AbstractLivelihood diversification is an important means of livelihood by which rural households can reduce the adverse impact of risks and increase household income.Livelihood diversification can help raise the income level of the poor and lift them out of poverty.However,whether livelihood diversification can narrow the income gap between different income classes depends on its impact on the overall rural household income distribution in reality.To fill the research gap,we adopt the recentered influence functions (RIFs) and unconditional quantile regression (UQR) to empirically analyze the impact of livelihood diversification on rural household income inequality,using data from the national household survey.Our study finds that diversification plays a role in adjusting unequal distribution of income,and effectively reduces income inequality.Specifically,livelihood diversification is found to have pro-poor potentials,which plays a significant role in narrowing income gap between lower-income and middle-income households and expanding middle-income groups.The decomposition of income inequality by income sources shows that nonfarm wage accounts for the largest proportion of overall income inequality,and the increase of nonfarm wage helps to reduce inequality.In particular,1% increase in nonfarm wage leads to 4% decrease in income inequality for households with diversified income portfolios.Moreover,a regional heterogeneity analysis shows that livelihoods diversification can significantly reduce income inequality in the western and central rural areas,but the impact on the eastern areas is not significant.Based on the above results,livelihood diversification is important for promoting better governance in reducing relative poverty and facilitating lower-income households moving into middle-income class.

    Keywordscommon prosperity; income gap; livelihood diversification; income structure

    AssessmentoftheProductivityEffectofAgriculturalResourceReallocation

    ZHENGHongyun,LIGucheng

    AbstractOptimizing the allocation of agricultural resources plays an important role in promoting the growth of agricultural productivity.Based on 1384 county-level panel data from 2002 to 2015,this paper estimates the resource reallocation and its productivity contribution by OP decomposition,taking labor productivity,land productivity and total factor productivity as examples.The results show that:1)overall,the reallocation of land factors and labor factors are both lagging behind,while agribusiness resource reallocation has improved; 2)from the perspective of sample distribution,the reallocation of labor factors,land factor and integrated resource is lagging behind in northeast; 3)from the perspective of productivity effect,the optimal reallocation of labor factors can increase labor productivity by 54.64%,the optimal reallocation of land factors can increase land productivity by 55.86%,and resource reallocation contributes 17.37% of total factor productivity growth.Agricultural resource reallocation has a large potential productivity effect.Therefore,more attention should be given to the optimal allocation of agricultural resources in policy formulation,especially for the reallocation of land and labor,so as to make full use of the productivity effect of resource reallocation.

    Keywordsresource reallocation; labor productivity; land productivity; total factor productivity

    TheImpactofInformationLiteracyonFarmers’ParticipationinE-commerce——Based on the Intermediary Role of Farmers’Internal Perception and the Regulatory Role of Government Promotion

    YANBeibei,ZHAOPeipei,LIUTianjun

    AbstractBased on bounded rationality behavior theory and Lewin’s behavior theory,this paper constructs a theoretical analysis framework of influence of information literacy on farmers’ participation in e-commerce,using survey data from 827 apple growers in Shaanxi Province to empirically test the influence of information literacy on e-commerce participation and the causal effect of farmers’ internal perception and government promotion in the relationship between information literacy and farmers’ participation in e-commerce.The research results show that information literacy has a significant positive effect on farmers’ participation in e-commerce; the internal perception of farmers plays an intermediary role in the influence of information literacy on farmers’ participation in e-commerce.Specifically,information literacy promotes farmers’ participation in e-commerce by improving farmers’ perceived usefulness and ease in agricultural e-commerce; government promotion has a significant positive moderating role in the relationship between information literacy and farmers’ participation in e-commerce.It is found that the comprehensiveness,ease of understanding and frequency of promotion will enhance information literacy among farmers participating in the promotion of e-commerce.

    Keywordsinformation literacy;participation in e-commerce; internal perception;government promotion

    TheInfluenceofWillingnesstoFarmonFarmers’AdoptionBehaviorofOrganicFertilizerTechnology

    YANAqian,LUOXiaofeng

    AbstractBased on the realisty of deepening non-farm employment in China,the impact of willingness to farm on the farmers’ adoption of organic fertilizer technology was explored empirically through the propensity score matching method (PSM),using data from 753 sample farmers in five counties (districts) in Hubei province.Results show that the willingness to farm has a significant incentive for farmers to adopt organic fertilizer technology,which infers that the higher of the willingness to farm,the more likely for farmers to adopt organic fertilizer technology.When it comes to the same level of the willingness to farm,there exist some differences in farmers’ adoption behavior caused by scale adjustment expectations.The probability for the farmers’ adoption of organic fertilizer technology will get down as the reduction of the scale adjustment expectations,and on the contrary,the probability will grow as the increase of the scale adjustment expectations.Study also reveals that there is a significant positive effect of willingness to farm on the adoption of organic fertilizer technology for younger farmers,those with higher household income,a larger household labour force and a larger area of arable land.Therefore,it is suggested that differentiated technical training and promotion should be carried out for farmers,and priority should be given to the promotion and application of organic fertilizer for relatively large-scale growers and other subjects.

    Keywordswillingness to farm; scale adjustment expectations; organic fertilizer; propensity score matching(PSM)

    ResearchontheImpactofNewUrbanizationComprehensivePilotPolicyonUrbanDevelopmentQuality

    CAOShouhui,DINGShijun,SUNFei

    AbstractBuilding a scientific evaluation index system and choosing an appropriate evaluation method are pivotal in evaluating the effectiveness of new urbanization comprehensive pilot policy.Based on Marx’s theory of urban and rural development and the theory of all-round human development,this paper adopts synthetic control method and takes Changsha as an example in the first batch of pilot cities of new urbanization to evaluate the systematic impact of comprehensive pilot policies of new urbanization on urban development quality.The study found that although the comprehensive pilot policy of new urbanization improved the quality of urban comprehensive development,the marginal utility of the policy showed a decreasing trend.Moreover,there are obvious differences in the impact of pilot policies on various dimensions of urban development,which are manifested in the inverse relationship between the impacts on economic development dimensions and environmental development dimensions,and the marginal utility brought by pilot policies on urban and rural development dimensions is more stable than that brought by social development dimensions.From the perspective of the weight of urban development quality evaluation index,the marginal improvement of social development dimension has the greatest contribution to the improvement of urban comprehensive development quality.

    Keywordsnew urbanization; urbanization development quality; policy evaluation; entropy method; synthetic control method

    MixingPredictionandEarly-warningofChina’sEggsPriceBasedonC(n)-MIDASModel

    WUPei,LIZhemin

    AbstractAs the first listed futures of livestock products,China’s eggs price system tends to be perfect,but the price fluctuates frequently because of the information asymmetry in production and marketing,transportation loss and other factors.There is an urgent need to dynamically monitor the price of China’s eggs and strengthen early-warning,choose the optimal methods of monitoring and early-warning,so as to improve the accuracy of early-warning and guarantee the relative stability of eggs market.Based on the literature of relative researches at home and abroad,this paper chooses 4 important leading indicators with high contribution and 2 undetermined indicators from 18 mixed data affecting eggs price fluctuation by variable selection based on Time Difference Correlation Analysis and Variable Importance in Projection (VIP) technology,and discusses the precision of model prediction of C(n)-MIDAS,PDL and ARIMA including different indicators.Finally the selected models are employed to forecast the eggs price from Mar.to Dec.in 2021 combining the monitoring and early-warning threshold table of China’s agricultural products.It is found that,mixed data model has a comparative advantage in short-term prediction of eggs price,the C(5)-MIDAS with the addition of egg futures price has the best prediction effect,and the newly published high-frequency data can be incorporated into the model in a timely manner to correct the prediction results and improve the prediction accuracy.The early-warning results obtained based on the C(n)-MIDAS model can quickly detect alarms,identify the alarm sources accurately,and capture the alarm situation yet to occur in advance.In the future,we could expand the scope and depth of eggs market monitoring and early-warning through strengthening the supervision of key indicators,enhancing the construction of monitoring and early-warning system of eggs covering all provinces and cities in China,and following the academic frontier and adopting the latest research methods in financial and economic industry in the egg industry,so as to ensure the smooth operation of egg industry.

    Keywordseggs price;C(n)-MIDAS model;variable selection;prediction and early-warning

    CulturalDistance,LocalRegionIdentification,SocialResourceandtheRe-acculturationLevelofReturnedRuralMigrants

    TIANBeihai,MAYanru

    AbstractIn the background of rapid changes in urban and rural society,returned migrants who were absentees from the rural society in the Midwest China may face the problem of cultural readjustment after their return.Regarding re-acculturation of returned migrants as an active agency in specific cultural context,the paper constructs an analytical chain on adaptive behavior of returned migrants,which is “context-motivation-resource” chain.Based on social survey in 4 provinces in China,including Hubei,Hunan,Guizhou and Sichuan,the paper conducts descriptive analysis on the cultural adaptation characteristics of returned migrants.Meanwhile,the paper takes explanatory analysis on the impact of re-acculturation context,re-acculturation motivation and re-acculturation resources on the cultural adaptation of returned migrants.The main results of the research are as follows.The overall level of re-acculturation of returned migrants is between relatively adaptable and very adaptable.The adaptation level of behavior culture is higher than the adaptation level of concept culture,which is higher than the adaptation level of system culture,which is higher than the adaptation level of substance culture.The results indicate that,as a positive agency,the re-acculturation of returned migrants are affected by the re-acculturation context,re-acculturation motivation and resources simultaneously.Cultural distance,especially the difference of returning places is a significant contextual factor that lead to the re-acculturation plight of returned migrants.Local region identification is a key motivation factor to promote returned migrants’re-acculturation.Local social capital,especially the network size and the relationship harmony condition are important resource factors to improve the re-acculturation of returned migrants.

    Keywordsreturned rural migrants; re-acculturation; cultural distance; local region identification; social capital

    DifferentiationBetweenInsideandOutside:SystemLogicandInspirationoftheDifferencesintheBehaviorsoftheRichGoverningVillages

    WEIChenglin,WANGMulin

    AbstractAs an important phenomenon of rural politics in the 21st century,the governance of villages by rich people has both the tendency of oligarchization of elite groups and the altruistic action of enhancing the level of public goods supply and improving the rural living environment.Through regional comparative method and in-depth case analysis,this paper probes into the institutional environment and process mechanism through which the rich village cadres play a positive role in village governance.It is found that the strategies of village governance adopted by the rich village officials in different regions depend on whether institutional environment they live in is formal or not.When the party-government system and social system are both effective,the rich village officials will adopt different zonal action strategies that alternate between moral logic (altruism) and market logic (self-interest).The governance of villages by the rich may also enhance the organizational and institutionalized level of rural social governance,and effectively avoid the disadvantages of oligarchy and monetization of the governance of villages by the rich,which concern the academic community a lot.Therefore,it is suggested that in the process of rural revitalization,rural elites should be encouraged by appropriate institutional regulations,and rural endogenous human resources should be transformed into a supporting force for the implementation of the policies of the Party,the government and the state.

    Keywordsgovernance of villages by the rich; public goods supply; system environment; governance modernization; grass-roots political power construction

    AnAnalysisofGovernmentEmbedding,CommunityIntegrationandTibetanHerdsmen’sCollectiveDevelopmentBasedon“System-Life”

    YANGYongwei

    AbstractThe results of herdsmen’s collective development in Tibet derive from two interrelated stages:the transfer of public resources to pastoral villages,and the transformation of public resources into herdsmen’s endogenous development ability.Based on the analysis framework of “system-life”,this paper investigates the phenomenon of herdsmen’s collective development in Ali district G county.It is found that the herdsmen’s collective development is essentially the result of “interactive co-governance” between local government and herdsmen’s society.The local government strongly embeds itself into herdsmen’s society through the selection of village cadres and provision of policy projects,and promotes the orderly changes of herdsmen’s society within the collective framework on the basis of respect for the livelihood mode of the pastoral areas.The village collective takes over the government public resources,and adopts the flexible integration means such as bonding through friendliness and connection through interests.It guides the herdsmen’s collective development from the “system” form to the standardized “entity” form,and effectively realizes the village public reproduction.In the process of herdsmen’s collective development,the continuous interaction between system and life enhances the herdsmen’s endogenous development capability.The herdsmen see the possibility of solving their own survival crisis,and the shared interests arouse the sense of trust and belonging to the collective,thus contributing to the virtuous cycle of the herdsmen’s collective development.

    Keywordsgovernment embedding; community integration; tibetan herdsmen; collective development; “system-life”

    TheDevelopmentofJapan’sSixthIndustrializationandItsImplicationsforRuralRevitalizationinChina

    YANJin

    AbstractJapan officially promoted the six industrialization of agriculture by law in 2010.The development results since then show that the six industrialization promoted the extension of the industrial chain and the upgrade of the value chain,raised the added value of agricultural products,improved the quality and efficiency of agriculture,increased the income of farmers and stimulated rural vitality,promoted rural revitalization.Its successful experience mainly lies in focusing on the organic integration of primary,secondary and tertiary industries to achieve agricultural efficiency; focusing on building brands through technological innovation and management optimization to achieve value-added product; focusing on activating diversified business entities and diverse marketing strategies to increase farmers’ income; and focusing on the active use of various regional characteristic resources to enhance rural characteristics.The background and goal of implementing rural revitalization strategy in China are similar to those of developing six industries in Japan and the practical experience of Japan can provide useful reference and inspiration for China.To promote rural revitalization,China should optimize the top-level design and guide the development of industrial integration; strengthen platform construction and promote the integrated development of primary,secondary and tertiary industries; strengthen science and technology empowerment to promote the quality and efficiency of agriculture; and strengthen talent training and activate the endogenous power of rural revitalization.

    KeywordsJapan; sixth industrialization; integration of primary,secondary and tertiary industries; rural revitalization

    TheSelectionofHousingCompensationBaseforUrbanVillageRenewalandItsImpactonVillagersPolicySatisfaction

    CAIYinying,ZHANGXiaohui,YANGQing

    AbstractConsidering the economic cost of urban village renewal,local governments and developers have formalized redevelopment compensation strategies based on family population or building areas of their rural house.These two types of strategies respectively focus on membership rights of villagers and their accumulation of housing assets,so the relative benefited groups and villagers’ policy satisfaction are different.Identifying the differences will be helpful to optimize subsequent policies for alleviating social and economic disputes.We conduct a random sample survey for urban village renewal in Wuhan,in order to compare with the relationship of housing resettled strategies and villagers’ policy satisfaction.There are several results as follow.Firstly,for the program which resettled compensation based on family population,the average resettled housing area of villager households was decreased by 129.80m2.However,the average resettled housing area of households was just decreased by 14.74m2,when the compensation scheme based on the initial housing area.Secondly,for the program which resettled compensation based on villagers’ family population,the gap of housing assets among villager households was close,and the relative deprivation index decreased from 0.41 to 0.1 after the redevelopment of urban villages.However,for the program which compensation based on villagers’ building area,the relative deprivation index of housing assets of households increased from 0.51 to 0.54,and the gap of housing assets among households increased slightly.Thirdly,compensation by population has led to a significant increase in the housing area of villagers’ households in urban villages with an original farmhouse area of less than 400m2,so their level of policy satisfaction was higher.In contrast,for the program which resettled compensated according to villagers’ initial housing area,the households whose initial housing areas were less than 200m2lost more,and their policy satisfaction was low.Lastly,the resettled program based on family population considered the homestead development rights for the households whose initial housing area was less than 400m2,and is helpful to avoid the unfair compensation for the building area over 400m2which is mainly from illegal or rent-seek construction.The resettled program based on the initial building area benefited those households with more housing areas,while ignored the land development right of rural homestead for those households whose initial housing area was less than 200m2.

    Keywordsurban village renewal; housing compensation; relative deprivation; policy satisfaction; Wuhan

    TheReformofThreeRightsDivisionofFarmlandandtheGrowthofCountyAgriculturalEconomy

    GANTianqi,LIBo,DENGHui

    AbstractAs a “ reform of three rights division of farmland ” supporting policy,whether or not the pilot land the right to operate a pilot mortgage loans promote the county’s agricultural economic growth effectively? Based on the data of China’s counties from 2013 to 2019,this paper uses the double difference method to analyze the impact and mechanism of the pilot policy of rural land management right mortgage loan on the development of county agricultural economy.The results show that:(1) the pilot policy of operation right mortgage increases the GDP of primary industry by 5.6% and per capita GDP of primary industry by 4.2%,but its spillover effect makes the long-term effect of this policy not obvious; (2) the pilot policy plays an important role in County agricultural economy by improving the scale production and agricultural technology level; (3) compared with the level of economic development,the pilot policy is relatively weak The effect of county agricultural economy promotion is more obvious in the high-risk areas than in the backward areas after the policy impact.Accordingly,the paper puts forward policy suggestions for the reform of “separation of three rights”:while guiding the appropriate scale operation of land,we should actively explore the specific measures of financial support for the development of agricultural economy,and give differentiated policy incentives to the areas of different levels of development,so as to realize the long-term development of agricultural economy.

    Keywordsseparation of the three rights of agricultural land; land management right mortgage loan; county agricultural economy; difference in difference(DID)

    TheImpactsofArtificialIntelligenceDevelopmentonAgriculturalProductivity:EmpiricalEvidencefromCross-countryPanelData

    ZHOUXiaoshi,LIJunpeng,WUQinghua

    AbstractArtificial Intelligence (AI) is one of the core technologies of the new-round industrial revolution in the 21st century.It has been comprehensively affecting the development of the economy and society.Based on the industrial application of AI and the theoretical model of Acemoglu and Restrepo (2020),this paper takes robotics as the measurement of AI to examine AI’s effects and mechanisms on agricultural productivity,using cross-country data of 1991 to 2018 from the World Bank Database and the IFR Database.The empirical results show AI has significantly positive effects on agricultural productivity measured by value added per worker.From a mechanism perspective,AI significantly substitutes agricultural labor,but it has no significant impacts on industrial structure yet.Interestingly addition,as for the heterogeneity of effects on agriculture productivity of countries in different developing stages,AI has remarkably positive effects on high-income countries,while there exist negative effects on the middle and low-income countries.To develop modern agriculture,we should systemically strengthen the development and application of AI in agriculture,further facilitate agricultural labor transfer and boost agricultural productivity.

    Keywordsartificial intelligence; agricultural productivity; employment effect; industrial structure effect

    TheEvaluationandDrivingFactorsofFarmers’ParticipationPracticeinDigitalVillageConstruction

    SULanlan,PENGYanling

    AbstractThis study establishes an evaluation index system of farmers’ participation in digital village practice,which include four dimensions:the usage of rural digital infrastructure,the participation in rural digital economy,digital life and digital governance.Using micro-survey data from 1129 rural household in nine counties from the national pilot and non-pilot areas of Sichuan province,Chongqing municipal city and Ningxia Hui autonomous region,this paper measures the overall dimension and sub-dimension level of farmers’ participation in digital village practice and explores the main characteristics at the present stage and its internal and external driving factors.The results show that the overall dimension and sub-dimension level of farmers’ participation in digital village practice are generally low with highest participation in rural digital infrastructure followed successively by digital life,digital economy,and digital governance.The difference of farmers’ participation in digital village practice between pilot and non-pilot areas mainly lies in the participation level of rural digital governance.The participation level of farmers in digital village from underdeveloped and relatively poor areas are relatively low.It is further found that internal factors such as gender,age,education level,health status,whether or not they are new agricultural operators,and external factors such as digital training,the presence of village cadres among family members and relatives,rural information cooperatives,and WeChat official platform in the village all have different significant impact on the overall participation level of digital village and the level of each dimension.Hence,in order to accelerate the digital transformation and revitalization of villages,some policies are proposed including promoting the construction of digital village in various fields,paying attention to regional balanced development and designing differentiated support strategies for different farmers.

    Keywordsdigital village; village’s digital economy; village’s digital governance; evaluation of practice participation degree; driving factors

    DoseParticipationinDigitalFinancialMarketsImproveRuralHouseholds’Income?

    YANGShaoxiong,KONGRong

    AbstractUsing the survey data collected from 1947 farmers in Ningxia Hui autonomous region and Shaanxi and Shandong Provinces,this paper employs an endogenous switching regression model to explore the effect of participation in digital financial markets on rural households’ income level.This study also uses the fields decomposition method to test the effect of direction and degree of participation in digital financial markets on the income inequality.The results show that participation in digital financial markets increases the farmers households’ income level.In the counterfactual framework,farmers who originally participated in digital financial markets would undergo income decrease by 6.40% in case they decide against participation.In contrast,the farmers who did not participate in digital financial markets could experience income increase by 9.57% if they decide to participate in digital financial markets.Digital financing has the highest impact on farmer households’ income,followed by mobile payments and digital investment.Further research finds that participation in digital financial markets has widened the rural households’ income inequality,the contribution rate of which is 14.79%.Among them,digital financing has contributed the most to the rural households’ income inequality,followed by mobile payments and digital investment.

    Keywordsdigital financial markets;rural households’ income;income inequality;endogenous switching regression model

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