World faces disastrous 2.7C temperature rise on current climate plans, UN warns

秦子怡

在聯(lián)合國(guó)氣候峰會(huì)即將召開(kāi)之際，聯(lián)合國(guó)環(huán)境規(guī)劃署發(fā)布的新報(bào)告顯示，世界各國(guó)并沒(méi)有積極行動(dòng)來(lái)兌現(xiàn)減排承諾，照此下去，全球氣溫會(huì)上升至少2.7攝氏度，這將會(huì)產(chǎn)生災(zāi)難性的后果。

The world is squandering the opportunity to “build back better” from the Covid-19 pandemic， and faces disastrous temperature rises of at least 2.7C if countries fail to strengthen their climate pledges， according to a report from the UN.

聯(lián)合國(guó)的一份報(bào)告指出，世界正在浪費(fèi)新冠疫情帶來(lái)的“重建”機(jī)會(huì)，如果各國(guó)依然無(wú)法兌現(xiàn)氣候承諾，全球氣溫會(huì)上升至少2.7攝氏度，這將是災(zāi)難性的。

Tuesday’s publication warns that countries’ current pledges would reduce carbon by only about 7.5% by 2030， far less than the 45% cut scientists say is needed to limit global temperature rises to 1.5C， the aim of the Cop26 summit that opens in Glasgow this Sunday.

10月26日發(fā)布的這份報(bào)告警告稱，各國(guó)目前的承諾如果能夠兌現(xiàn)，也只能在2030年前將碳排放量降低7.5%左右，遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)低于科學(xué)家所說(shuō)的將全球氣溫升幅限制在1.5攝氏度以內(nèi)所需的45%。將全球升溫幅度控制在1.5攝氏度以內(nèi)也是本周日（10月31日）在格拉斯哥召開(kāi)的Cop26聯(lián)合國(guó)氣候峰會(huì)的目標(biāo)。

António Guterres， the UN secretary-general， described the findings as a “thundering wake up call” to world leaders， while experts called for drastic action against fossil fuel companies.

聯(lián)合國(guó)秘書長(zhǎng)安東尼奧·古特雷斯將這一結(jié)論描述為向世界領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人“敲響振聾發(fā)聵的警鐘”。與此同時(shí)，專家呼吁對(duì)化石燃料公司采取嚴(yán)厲措施。

Although more than 100 countries have promised to reach net zero emissions around mid-century， this would not be enough to stave off climate disaster， according to the UN emissions report， which examines the shortfall between countries’ intentions and actions needed on the climate. Many of the net zero pledges were found to be vague， and unless accompanied by stringent cuts in emissions this decade would allow global heating of a potentially catastrophic extent.

聯(lián)合國(guó)的碳排放報(bào)告稱，盡管已有100多個(gè)國(guó)家承諾在本世紀(jì)中葉實(shí)現(xiàn)零排放目標(biāo)，但是仍不足以避免氣候?yàn)?zāi)難。這份報(bào)告檢視了各國(guó)的承諾和應(yīng)對(duì)氣候危機(jī)所需采取的行動(dòng)之間的落差。許多國(guó)家的零排放承諾都很含糊，然而，除非這個(gè)十年按照承諾實(shí)行嚴(yán)格的減排措施，否則災(zāi)難性的全球變暖將不可避免。

Guterres said： “The heat is on， and as the contents of this report show， the leadership we need is off. Far off. Countries are squandering a massive opportunity to invest Covid-19 fiscal and recovery resources in sustainable， cost-saving， planet-saving ways. As world leaders prepare for Cop26， this report is another thundering wake-up call. How many do we need？”

古特雷斯表示：“事態(tài)變得緊急，而且據(jù)這份報(bào)告的內(nèi)容顯示，我們所需的減排領(lǐng)導(dǎo)力很不夠。遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)不夠。新冠疫情帶來(lái)的大好轉(zhuǎn)型機(jī)會(huì)正在被各國(guó)浪費(fèi)掉，他們?cè)究梢越璐藱C(jī)會(huì)投資可持續(xù)的節(jié)省成本的環(huán)保資源。如今世界領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人正準(zhǔn)備參加Cop26聯(lián)合國(guó)氣候峰會(huì)，這份報(bào)告再次敲響了振聾發(fā)聵的警鐘。我們還需要多少警鐘才能行動(dòng)起來(lái)？”

Inger Andersen， the executive director of the UN Environment Programme （Unep） said： “Climate change is no longer a future problem. It is a now problem. To stand a chance of limiting global warming to 1.5C， we have eight years to almost halve greenhouse gas emissions： eight years to make the plans， put in place the policies， implement them and ultimately deliver the cuts. The clock is ticking loudly.”

聯(lián)合國(guó)環(huán)境規(guī)劃署執(zhí)行主任英格·安德森說(shuō)：“氣候變化不再是未來(lái)的問(wèn)題，而是現(xiàn)在的問(wèn)題。為了能有一線之機(jī)將全球變暖幅度限制在1.5攝氏度內(nèi)，我們必須在八年內(nèi)將碳排放量減半，其中包括計(jì)劃的制定、政策的發(fā)布和實(shí)施以及最終減排。時(shí)不我待?！?/p>

Emissions fell by about 5.4% last year during Covid lockdowns， the report found， but only about a fifth of the spending on economic recovery was geared to efforts that would cut carbon. This failure to “build back better” despite promises by governments around the world cast doubt on the world’s willingness to make the economic shift necessary to tackle the climate crisis， the UN said.

報(bào)告發(fā)現(xiàn)，去年疫情封鎖期間，碳排放量大約減少了5.4%，但是經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的資金中只有約五分之一用于減排需求。聯(lián)合國(guó)稱，世界各國(guó)政府無(wú)視承諾不事“重建”的行為令人懷疑他們?yōu)閼?yīng)對(duì)氣候危機(jī)而做出經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型的誠(chéng)意。

In the run-up to Cop26， countries were supposed to submit national plans on emissions cuts – called nationally determined contributions （NDCs） – for the next decade， a requirement under the 2015 Paris climate agreement.

在即將舉行的Cop26聯(lián)合國(guó)氣候峰會(huì)期間，按照2015年巴黎氣候協(xié)定的要求，各國(guó)本應(yīng)提交下一個(gè)十年的全國(guó)減排計(jì)劃“國(guó)家自主貢獻(xiàn)預(yù)案”。

But the Unep report found only half of countries had submitted new NDCs， and several other governments – including Russia， Brazil， Australia and Mexico – had presented weak plans that were no improvement on their 2015 Paris pledges.

但是聯(lián)合國(guó)環(huán)境規(guī)劃署的報(bào)告發(fā)現(xiàn)，只有半數(shù)國(guó)家提交了新的國(guó)家自主貢獻(xiàn)預(yù)案，俄羅斯、巴西、澳大利亞和墨西哥等國(guó)政府提交的計(jì)劃乏善可陳，只是在重復(fù)他們?cè)?015年巴黎協(xié)定上的承諾。

The emissions gap report also highlighted methane， a powerful greenhouse gas that arises from animal husbandry， natural gas extraction and waste. The US， the EU and more than 20 other countries have signed a pledge to reduce methane globally by 30% this decade.

這份排放落差報(bào)告還重點(diǎn)關(guān)注了甲烷這種威力強(qiáng)大的溫室氣體。甲烷來(lái)自畜牧業(yè)、天然氣開(kāi)采和尾氣。美國(guó)、歐盟和20多個(gè)其他國(guó)家都簽署了在十年內(nèi)將全球甲烷排放量減少30%的承諾書。

Unep said methane was the second biggest contributor to temperature rises， after carbon， and that about 20% of annual methane emissions could be cut at little or no cost， for instance through better management of natural gas drilling.

聯(lián)合國(guó)環(huán)境規(guī)劃署稱，甲烷是僅次于二氧化碳的溫室氣體。每年可以通過(guò)成本很低或零成本的方式將甲烷排放量減少約20%，比如通過(guò)改善對(duì)天然氣開(kāi)采的管理。