內(nèi)燃機之死

“Human inventiveness… has still not found a mechanical process to replace horses as the propulsion for vehicles，” lamented Le Petit Journal， a French newspaper， in December 1893. Its answer was to organise the Paris-Rouen race for horseless carriages， held the following July. The 102 entrants included vehicles powered by steam， petrol， electricity， compressed air and hydraulics. Only 21 qualified for the 126km （78-mile） race， which attracted huge crowds. The clear winner was the internal combustion engine. Over the next century it would go on to power industry and change the world.

The big end

But its days are numbered. Rapid gains in battery technology favour electric motors instead. In Paris in 1894 not a single electric car made it to the starting line， partly because they needed battery-replacement stations every 30km or so. Todays electric cars， powered by lithium-ion batteries， can do much better. The Chevy Bolt has a range of 383km; Tesla fans recently drove a Model S more than 1，000km on a single charge. UBS optimistically predicts electric vehicles will make up 14% of global car sales by 2025， up from 1% today. Others have more modest forecasts， but are hurriedly revising them upwards as batteries get cheaper and better—the cost per kilowatt-hour has fallen from $1，000 in 2010 to $130-200 today. Regulations are tightening， too. Last month Britain joined a lengthening list of electric-only countries， saying that all new cars must be zero-emission by 2050.

The shift from fuel and pistons to batteries and electric motors is unlikely to take that long. The first death rattles of the internal combustion engine are already reverberating around the world—and many of the consequences will be welcome.

To gauge what lies ahead， think how the internal combustion engine has shaped modern life. The rich world was rebuilt for motor vehicles， with huge investments in road networks and the invention of suburbia， along with shopping malls and drive-through restaurants. Roughly 85% of American workers commute by car. Carmaking was also a generator of economic development and the expansion of the middle class， in post-war America and elsewhere. There are now about 1bn cars on the road， almost all powered by fossil fuels. Though most of them sit idle， Americas car and lorry engines can produce ten times as much energy as its power stations. The internal combustion engine is the mightiest motor in history.

But electrification has thrown the car industry into turmoil. Its best brands are founded on their engineering heritage—especially in Germany. Compared with existing vehicles， electric cars are much simpler and have fewer parts; they are more like computers on wheels. That means they need fewer people to assemble them and fewer subsidiary systems from specialist suppliers. Carworkers at factories that do not make electric cars are worried that they could be for the chop. With less to go wrong， the market for maintenance and spare parts will shrink. While todays carmakers grapple with their costly legacy of old factories and swollen workforces， new entrants will be unencumbered. Premium brands may be able to stand out through styling and handling， but low-margin， mass-market carmakers will have to compete chiefly on cost.

Assuming， of course， that people want to own cars at all. Electric propulsion， along with ride-hailing and self-driving technology， could mean that ownership is largely replaced， by “transport as a service”， in which fleets of cars offer rides on demand. On the most extreme estimates， that could shrink the industry by as much as 90%. Lots of shared， self-driving electric cars would let cities replace car parks （up to 24% of the area in some places） with new housing， and let people commute from far away as they sleep—suburbanisation in reverse.

Even without a shift to safe， self-driving vehicles， electric propulsion will offer enormous environmental and health benefits. Charging car batteries from central power stations is more efficient than burning fuel in separate engines. Existing electric cars reduce carbon emissions by 54% compared with petrol-powered ones， according to Americas National Resources Defence Council. That figure will rise as electric cars become more efficient and grid-generation becomes greener. Local air pollution will fall， too. The World Health Organisation says that it is the single largest environmental health risk， with outdoor air pollution contributing to 3.7m deaths a year. One study found that car emissions kill 53，000 Americans each year， against 34，000 who die in traffic accidents.

Autos and autocracies

And then there is oil. Roughly two-thirds of oil consumption in America is on the roads， and a fair amount of the rest uses up the by-products of refining crude oil to make petrol and diesel. The oil industry is divided about when to expect peak demand; Royal Dutch Shell says that it could be little more than a decade away. The prospect will weigh on prices long before then. Because nobody wants to be left with useless oil in the ground， there will be a dearth of new investment， especially in new， high-cost areas such as the Arctic. By contrast， producers such as Saudi Arabia， with vast reserves that can be tapped cheaply， will be under pressure to get pumping before it is too late： the Middle East will still matter， but a lot less than it did. Although there will still be a market for natural gas， which will help generate power for all those electric cars， volatile oil prices will strain countries that depend on hydrocarbon revenues to fill the national coffers. When volumes fall， the adjustment will be fraught， particularly where the struggle for power has long been about controlling oil wealth. In countries such as Angola and Nigeria where oil has often been a curse， the diffusion of economic clout may bring immense benefits.

Meanwhile， a scramble for lithium is under way. The price of lithium carbonate has risen from $4，000 a tonne in 2011 to more than $14，000. Demand for cobalt and rare-earth elements for electric motors is also soaring. Lithium is used not just to power cars： utilities want giant batteries to store energy when demand is slack and release it as it peaks. Will all this make lithium-rich Chile the new Saudi Arabia？ Not exactly， because electric cars do not consume it; old lithium-ion batteries from cars can be reused in power grids， and then recycled.

The internal combustion engine has had a good run—and could still dominate shipping and aviation for decades to come. But on land electric motors will soon offer freedom and convenience more cheaply and cleanly. As the switch to electric cars reverses the trend in the rich world towards falling electricity consumption， policymakers will need to help， by ensuring that there is enough generating capacity. They may need to be the midwives to new rules and standards for public recharging stations， and the recycling of batteries， rare-earth motors and other components in “urban mines”. And they will have to cope with the turmoil as old factory jobs disappear.

Driverless electric cars in the 21st century are likely to improve the world in profound and unexpected ways， just as vehicles powered by internal combustion engines did in the 20th. But it will be a bumpy road. Buckle up.

1893年12月，法國《小日報》曾感嘆道：“以人類的創(chuàng)造力……仍未找到可以取代馬匹驅(qū)動車輛的機械方式?！钡诙?月舉辦的巴黎至魯昂無馬馬車賽算是對這一問題的回應(yīng)。報名參賽的102輛車各有特色，有的靠蒸汽驅(qū)動，有的靠汽油驅(qū)動，有的靠電力驅(qū)動，有的靠壓縮空氣驅(qū)動，還有的靠液壓裝置驅(qū)動。只有21輛車取得了參加126公里（78英里）正式比賽的資格，比賽吸引了大批觀眾。內(nèi)燃機成為當之無愧的贏家。在接下來的一個世紀，它將為工業(yè)提供動力，并改變世界。

內(nèi)燃機的大限

但如今內(nèi)燃機大限將至。電池技術(shù)的快速進步更利于電動機的發(fā)展。1894年巴黎的那場比賽中，沒有一輛電力驅(qū)動的車成功踏上正賽的起跑線，部分原因在于那些車大約每30公里就需要有個電池更換站更換電池。當今的電動汽車采用鋰離子電池，性能優(yōu)異得多。雪佛蘭博爾特續(xù)航可達383公里;特斯拉車迷最近駕駛Model S，一次充電就跑了1000多公里。瑞銀集團樂觀預(yù)測，到2025年，在全球汽車銷售市場上，電動汽車占比將從目前的1%升至14%。其他機構(gòu)更為謹慎，但也在加緊調(diào)高預(yù)測比例，因為電池價格越發(fā)便宜且性能越發(fā)優(yōu)異——每千瓦時的成本已從2010年的1000美元降至目前的130—200美元。相關(guān)監(jiān)管也在收緊。不斷有國家宣布禁售燃油車，英國上月也加入了這一行列。英國政府表態(tài)，到2050年所有新車必須實現(xiàn)零排放。

從燃料和活塞向電池和電動機的轉(zhuǎn)變未必需要那么長時間。內(nèi)燃機第一波臨終哀鳴已經(jīng)回蕩在世界各個角落，而隨之產(chǎn)生的諸多變化都將為世人所樂見。

要看清未來的形勢，需要思考內(nèi)燃機如何塑造了現(xiàn)代生活。發(fā)達國家因機動車而重建，投入巨資建設(shè)道路交通網(wǎng)，開發(fā)郊區(qū)，建立大型購物中心和汽車餐廳。大約85%的美國職工開車上下班。在戰(zhàn)后的美國和世界其他地方，汽車制造業(yè)也促進了經(jīng)濟發(fā)展，擴大了中產(chǎn)階級的規(guī)模。如今全世界汽車保有量約為10億輛，路上行駛的汽車幾乎都由化石燃料驅(qū)動。盡管美國的轎車和貨車引擎大多處在閑置狀態(tài)，但它們所能產(chǎn)生的能量是發(fā)電廠的10倍。內(nèi)燃機是歷史上最強大的引擎。

但是電氣化使汽車工業(yè)陷入了混亂。汽車工業(yè)最好的品牌都建立在它們深厚的工程技術(shù)積淀上，特別是在德國。和目前的燃油汽車相比，電動汽車結(jié)構(gòu)更簡單，部件也更少。它們就好比裝上輪子的計算機。這意味著需要的組裝人手更少，需要專業(yè)供應(yīng)商提供的配套系統(tǒng)也更少。不生產(chǎn)電動汽車的制造廠的工人擔憂自己可能面臨被炒魷魚的命運。故障少了，維修和配件市場會隨之萎縮。工廠老舊，員工隊伍臃腫，這樣的歷史包袱令今天的汽車制造商不堪重負，而新入行者將輕裝上陣。高端品牌依靠款式設(shè)計和駕駛性能或許還能夠屹立不倒，但面向大眾市場的低利潤汽車制造商將不得不把競爭重心放在成本上。

當然，這樣的情況是假設(shè)人們都想擁有自己的車。電力驅(qū)動，加之打車軟件和自動駕駛技術(shù)，可能意味著人們很大程度上不再需要買車，而代之以享受“交通服務(wù)”，有成群結(jié)隊的車輛會按需提供搭乘服務(wù)。最糟糕的估計是，這可能讓汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)縮水90%。大量共享自動駕駛電動汽車涌現(xiàn)，會讓城市縮小停車場占地（在某些地方，停車場占地達24%），轉(zhuǎn)而將這些占地用于建筑新的住房，這還可以讓通勤路途遙遠的人在途中打個盹兒——城市郊區(qū)化的趨勢將發(fā)生逆轉(zhuǎn)。

即使無法改用安全的自動駕駛汽車，電力驅(qū)動也會帶來巨大的環(huán)境和健康益處。相比各個引擎單燒燃料，通過中心電站為汽車電池充電，能源利用率會更高。根據(jù)美國國家資源保護委員會的測算，與燃油汽車相比，目前的電動汽車可以減少54%的碳排放量。隨著電動汽車能效提高，電網(wǎng)發(fā)電更加清潔，這一數(shù)字還會上升。當?shù)氐目諝馕廴緺顩r也會改善。世界衛(wèi)生組織表示，戶外空氣污染每年導(dǎo)致370萬人死亡，這是危及健康最大的環(huán)境風險。一項研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，每年因汽車尾氣死亡的美國人有5.3萬之多，而死于交通事故的只有3.4萬人。

汽車與獨裁

此外，還有石油的問題。在美國，汽車消耗了大概三分之二的石油，提煉原油生產(chǎn)汽油和柴油的副產(chǎn)品則消耗了其余的相當一部分。石油產(chǎn)業(yè)對于需求高峰何時到來意見不一。荷蘭皇家殼牌石油公司表示可能不會超過10年。在那一刻到來之前的很長一段時間內(nèi)，產(chǎn)業(yè)前景會使油價承擔重壓。因為沒有人想在地下囤積毫無價值的石油，所以新的投資會不足，尤其是對于北極這樣新開發(fā)的高成本地區(qū)。相比之下，像沙特阿拉伯這樣的產(chǎn)油國，擁有大量可以廉價開采的石油儲備，將面臨及時開采以免為時過晚的壓力。中東地區(qū)仍將重要，但相比以前，其影響力會大大削弱。盡管天然氣仍會有市場，可幫助為所有那些電動汽車供電，但對于那些依靠碳氫化合物收入來支撐國家財政的國家，波動的油價會令它們掣肘。當產(chǎn)量下降，調(diào)整將令人擔憂，特別是在一些權(quán)力之爭長久以來就是石油財富控制權(quán)之爭的地方。在像安哥拉和尼日利亞這樣的國家，石油經(jīng)常是一種詛咒，經(jīng)濟影響力的散播或許會帶來巨大的收益。

同時，對鋰的爭奪也在展開。碳酸鋰的價格已經(jīng)從2011年的每噸4000美元升至如今的超過1.4萬美元。電動機必備的鈷和稀土元素的需求也在飆升。鋰不僅可以用于為汽車供電：電力公司希望在用電低谷時利用巨型電池存儲電能，在用電高峰時釋放電能。這一切是否會使富含鋰資源的智利成為新的沙特阿拉伯？未必，因為電動車并不會消耗鋰，車上用過的鋰離子電池可以在電網(wǎng)中重復(fù)使用，然后回收再利用。

內(nèi)燃機曾經(jīng)大行其道，并且未來幾十年仍會主導(dǎo)水運和空運領(lǐng)域。但在陸上，電動機很快會讓人們自由享受更廉價、清潔的便利出行。轉(zhuǎn)向電動汽車會扭轉(zhuǎn)發(fā)達世界減少電力消耗的趨勢，所以政策制定者需要確保有足夠的發(fā)電能力加以推動。他們可能需要為公共充電站的建設(shè)，以及電池、稀土發(fā)動機和其他“城市礦藏”的循環(huán)利用，推動制定新的規(guī)則和標準。他們還將不得不應(yīng)對舊工廠崗位取消帶來的社會動蕩。

就像20世紀內(nèi)燃機驅(qū)動的汽車那樣，21世紀的無人駕駛電動車將會以深遠且無法預(yù)知的方式讓這個世界變得更好。但前路坎坷，請系好安全帶。