發(fā)現舊大陸 發(fā)展新大陸

尊敬的葡萄牙總統(tǒng)先生、尊敬的里斯本工商界的各位貴賓、女生們、先生們，這是我第二次來到里斯本！上次是作為旅游者，特意去了天涯海角，領略了大航海時代的壯觀。

今天，中國提出“一帶一路”倡議，并不是重復歐洲歷史上陸權與海權的此消彼長，而是要實現舊大陸——歐亞大陸的陸海聯(lián)通， 同時發(fā)展新大陸——讓非洲、拉美等前歐洲殖民地實現工業(yè)化，拿習近平主席2017年5月在首屆“一帶一路”國際合作高峰論壇主旨演講中的話來說，就是“設施聯(lián)通是合作發(fā)展的基礎。要著力推動陸上、海上、天上、網上四位一體的聯(lián)通，聚焦關鍵通道、關鍵城市、 關鍵項目，聯(lián)結陸上公路、鐵路道路網絡和海上港口網絡。”

天下大勢，分久必合，合久必分。歐洲的哲學是分，尤其是葡萄牙向東、西班牙向西，將地球瓜分為東半球、西半球，1494年6月7 日在教皇見證下簽訂《托爾德西里亞斯條約》。

中國的哲學是合。歐亞大陸時代：馬/駱駝+帆船時代（17世紀前）；海權時代：蒸汽時代（18世紀）——鐵路時代（19世紀）——飛機時代（20世紀）；陸海聯(lián)通、萬物互聯(lián)時代：高鐵時代（21世紀）。

因此，“一帶一路”必須以21世紀開創(chuàng)人類新文明角度理解，并非中國新絲綢之路復興古絲綢之路，而是開創(chuàng)新型全球化?！耙粠б宦贰笨梢杂弥袊湮膶W語言來理解：

——天塹變通途

“一帶一路”的精神就是互聯(lián)互通，而這是基于中國自秦始皇實現中國大一統(tǒng)的基礎，實現了國內的互聯(lián)互通，由內及外，由近及遠，實現世界的互聯(lián)互通。

中國不到十年時間建起了四縱四橫的高鐵網，占世界高鐵的六成以上，正在拓展為八縱八橫的人類有史以來最發(fā)達的交通網絡。

中國通過“一帶一路”幫助鄰國實現他們的便捷交通、快速回家的夢想，并沿著交通線路進行產業(yè)布局和開發(fā)。中國拓展了市場，沿線國家實現了發(fā)展，這就是共贏。

——天涯若比鄰

萬里茶道（茶馬古道）：陸路為Cha，海路為Tea，見證了古絲綢之路以茶會友的傳統(tǒng)。

今天，中國的許多鄰國人認為他們與中國的心理距離比與歐美的還遠。改變地理距離與心理距離的反差，“一帶一路”提出“民心相通”理念，可以說是在歐洲一體化四大流通自由基礎上的創(chuàng)造性轉化、創(chuàng)新性發(fā)展。

——天涯咫尺

志合者，不以山海為遠?！耙粠б宦贰痹从诠沤z路又超越之，基于歐亞大陸又不局限于歐亞大陸。美國學者寫了本書《超級版圖》 （ Connectography）提出“互聯(lián)互通決定21世紀競爭力”，與我的《世界是通的》有異曲同工之妙。

互聯(lián)互通之妙，在近代法德競技中也得到了鮮明體現：自從步入鐵路時代，德國統(tǒng)一之后，法國就一直被德國打敗，原因從德國互聯(lián)互通的鐵路網就不難找到原因，法國的鐵路網不僅沒有德國密集，更重要的是條條鐵路通巴黎。

這種情形就在非洲上演：法語區(qū)非洲國家，還要去巴黎轉機才能到鄰國！

西方殖民以來，非洲國家間聯(lián)系少，都是與歐洲宗主國聯(lián)系，到達鄰居的航班要繞道巴黎！非洲內部貿易只占總對外貿易的10%-15%。有全球化但沒有地區(qū)一體化（globalization without integration）！埃塞俄比亞產咖啡豆，但一般老百姓卻喝不起咖啡，原因是沒有咖啡加工業(yè)，要從歐洲進口咖啡制成品。于是出現“遍身羅綺者，不是養(yǎng)蠶人”。

殖民以來，非洲成為西方資源、原材料市場，聯(lián)系是單向的、分割的（歐洲一體化并未把宗主國在非洲的殖民體系一體化，非洲市場仍被西方殖民者分割），內容也是貿易—援助，形式單一。

“一帶一路”推行“三網一化”，要讓非洲市場以點帶線，以線帶片，從基礎設施（港區(qū)鐵路貿五位一體）互聯(lián)互通著手，幫助非洲獲得內生式發(fā)展動力，形成經濟發(fā)展帶，實現工業(yè)化和農業(yè)現代化，共同脫貧致富。

“一帶一路”的原則是三共，共商：群策群力；共建：眾人拾柴火焰高；共享：有福同享，這也可用文學語言描述：聚是一團火，散是滿天星；獨行快，眾行遠。

總之，“一帶一路”的文學解讀就是過去-現在-未來三句話：

過去：我們共享一個月亮：觀念（海上升明月，天涯共此時）。

現在：我們只有一個地球：開創(chuàng)21世紀可持續(xù)新文明（天涯咫尺，天塹變通途）。

未來：我們共探一個宇宙：全球公域之治（天涯所盼，走出歷史）。

葡萄牙開啟了人類大航海時代的壯舉。今天，葡萄牙完全可以在實現中歐陸海聯(lián)通，進而推進世界互聯(lián)互通，建設人類命運共同體中，實現新的輝煌！

謝謝大家！

Distinguished President of Portugal， guests of the business community of Lisbon， ladies and gentlemen， good morning/afternoon/evening！ It is the second time that I have come to Lisbon. Last time I came here as a tourist. I visited Cabo da Roca， the remotest corner of Continental Europe， where I appreciated the splendor of “the Age of Discovery” .

Today， by proposing the Belt and Road Initiative， China does not mean to follow the old path of Europe， namely the shift between land power and sea power. Rather， it seeks to connect Eurasia， the old continent， via land and sea， and develop new continents， i.e.， realizing industrialization in Africa， Latin America， and other former European colonies. As what President Xi Jinping said in his keynote speech at the First Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation in May 2017， “Infrastructure connectivity is the foundation of development through cooperation. We should promote land， maritime， air and cyberspace connectivity， concentrate our efforts on key passageways， cities and projects and connect networks of highways， railways and sea ports.”

A Chinese saying goes like this： domains under heaven， after a long period of division， tend to unite； after a long period of union， tend to divide. This has been so since antiquity. For Europe， the basic concept is division： Portugal and Spain divided the earth into the Eastern Hemisphere and the Western Hemisphere through the signing of the Treaty of Tordesillas under the witness of pope on June 7， 1494.

But China’s concept is unity. The era of Eurasia： an age of horse/camel+sailboat （before the 17th century）； the age of sea power： the Age of Steam （the 18th century）-railway age （the 19th century）-the age of airplane （the 20th century）； an era of land and sea connection， and “Internet of Everything”： the age of high-speed railway （the 21st century）.

Therefore， we have to approach the Belt and Road from the perspective of ushering in a new civilization of mankind in the 21st century， and embarking on a new type of globalization， rather than using the new Silk Road to revive the old Silk Road. The Belt and Road can be summarized as：

——Changing the invincible water into a thoroughfare.

The essence of the Belt and Road is connectivity， which tracks back to the great unity of the First Qin Emperor. With domestic connectivity as the foundation， efforts will be made to realize the connectivity of the whole world.

In China， a crisscross high-speed railway network， accounting for over 60% of high-speed railway in the world， was built within a short span of less than 10 years. Greater efforts are being made to expand it into the most advanced transportation network throughout history.

By developing the Belt and Road， China is helping neighboring countries to realize the dream of convenient transport， and developing industries along traffic lines. A win-win scenario is realized when China expands the market and countries along the route gain better development.

——A bosom friend afar brings distance near.

Ten thousand miles of tea route （ancient tea horse road）： the tea trade was a tradition along the ancient Silk Road. Delivered by land， it was welcomed along the route as Cha； shipped through the sea， it arrived the west Europe with a new name Tea.

Today， many people in China’s neighboring countries feel Europe and America as closer friends than China. To narrow geographical and psychological distance， the concept of “people-to-people bond” was included into the Belt and Road Initiative. It represents an innovative conversion and development based on the free flow of people， goods， capital， and service of European integration.

——A connected world.

Nothing， not even mountains and oceans， can separate people with shared goals and vision. The Belt and Road originated from ancient Silk Road and transcends it， and is based on Eurasia but not limited to it. An American scholar wrote a book Connectography， in which he proposed the idea“Connectivity determines competitiveness in the 21st century”. The idea echoes with what I put forth in my book The World Is Connected.

The wonder of connectivity can be seen in the competition of France and Germany in modern times： since entering the railway age and the unification of Germany， France has been outshone by Germany. A look at railway network of the two countries offers us the obvious reason： in Germany， railways are connected； while in France， the railway network is not as dense as that of Germany， and what’s more， each railway leads to Paris.

The problem is seen in Africa： for people of African countries in French-speaking region， they have to transfer flights in Paris before arriving in neighboring countries.

Since being colonized by the West， African countries have witnessed little connection with each other. All countries connect with their European suzerains， and flights bound to their neighboring countries have to make a detour in Paris. Internal trade in Africa only accounts for 10%-15% of their total foreign trade. So it is globalization without integration. Ethiopia grows coffee bean， yet ordinary Ethiopian cannot afford to drinking coffee. That is because the country has no coffee processing industry and has to import finished coffee products from Europe. Hence the phenomenon， “Of those who are dressed in fine silk， none has ever raised a silkworm.”

Since the start of colonialism， Africa was divided into resources and raw materials markets of the West， featuring one-way and fragmented connection（European integration has not integrated African colonial system and African market is still divided by western colonists）. Between Africa and the west， the connection is purely trade and assistance.

In Africa， the development of the Belt and Road seeks to build three networks （high-speed railway， highway， and regional aviation） and industrialize infrastructure. Efforts will be made to connect African market through infrastructure， and integrate ports， regions， railway， highway， and trade， so as to form economic development belts， realize industrialization， agricultural modernization， and poverty alleviation.

The principles of the Belt and Road： consultation for collective wisdom， co-building with joint efforts， and sharing. That can be described as： when we are together， we look like a ball of fire； when we are scattered， we are stars interspersing in the sky； if you want to go fast， walk alone； and if you want to go far， walk together.

In a word， the Belt and Road can be summarized with such a literature interpretation：

In the past： we shared the same moon： concept （As the bright moon shines over the sea， from far away you share this moment with me）.

Present： we have only one earth： building a sustainable civilization of the 21st century （The world becomes smaller； changing the invincible water into a thoroughfare）.

In the future： we will explore the same universe： the governance of global public domain （Shaking off the past）.

In the past， Portugal opened the Age of Discovery. Today， Portugal can integrate China and Europe via land and sea， strive to realize connectivity of the whole world， build a community of shared future for mankind， and reap new glories.

Thank you！

（本文是2018年5月4日在葡萄牙里斯本俱樂部年會上的演講，有刪減）

（This is an abridged version of the speech delivered at the 3rd Lisbon Conference in Portugal on May 4， 2018