KAEDYVA LNINCKIN OGF T H“CEO SNILNKE RCOTAIVDIT Y”: ECONOMIC BELT IN CENTRAL ASIA

ZENG XIANGHONG

Associate Dean, School of Politics and International Relations and Professor of the Institute for Central Asian Studies, Lanzhou University

Belt and Road Initiative and its implementation globally provide a non-alternative approach for the Central Asian countries to achieve regional integration and build up momentum within the Central Asia for sustaining its integration process. The Initiative opens up an opportunity for the Central Asian countries to further identify their regional advantages and development priorities and facilitate the region's integration into the international community. In the past five years, the Central Asian countries have actively participated in advancing the Belt and Road Initiative, making remarkable achievements and encountering challenges as well. Therefore, it is necessary to clearly define the position and role of Central Asia in advancing the Silk Road Economic Belt. On this basis, this paper aims to conduct a comprehensive review and evaluation of the engagement of the Central Asian countries as a whole in the construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt and accordingly put forward policy suggestions on how to advance the Silk Road Economic Belt in the region in a coordinated manner.

THE POSITION OF CENTRAL ASIA IN ADVANCING THE SILK ROAD ECONOMIC BELT

Central Asia, located at the junction of Eurasia, once served as a critical channel of communication and cooperation between eastern and western civilizations in history. It was the only way pass-through linking the east and west as well as south and north. It was named “the geographical hub of world history” by geopolitical scholars. Due to its unique geographical location, the Central Asia plays an irreplaceable role in advancing the Belt and Road Initiative and serves as the key link of “connectivity”. It is precisely for this reason that the effectiveness of the Silk Road Economic Belt construction in Central Asia is vital to the shaping of China's international image and the region will stand as a shining example for other regions which engage in the Belt and Road Initiative.

First, due to its unique geographical location, Central Asia is the core area of the Silk Road Economic Belt. Considering the east-west direction, Central Asia is the junction of the northern route of the Silk Road Economic Belt (starting from China, passing through Central Asia and Russia and reaching Europe) and the central route (starting from China, passing through Central Asia and West Asia and reaching the Persian Gulf and Mediterranean Sea). Considering the north-south direction, Central Asia is the hub of the China-Mongolia-Russia economic corridor and China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and also a cut-through to connect the Silk Road Economic Belt, via Afghanistan and Pakistan, with the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road spreading across the Indian Ocean. Such unique geographic location helps boost land-sea coordinated development. Besides, the region also has such diversified features as rich mineral resources, relatively developed agriculture and animal husbandry, complex security situation and ethnic and religious diversity. Therefore, the efforts to promote “policy coordination, facilities connectivity, unimpeded trade, financial integration and peopleto-people bonds” will lay a foundation to engage Central Asia in advancing the Silk Road Economic Belt.

The China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan highway opened to traff ic in February 2018. As estimated by Uzbekistan, the new highway will slice off US$ 300-500 freight cost for per ton of goods. The picture shows a cargo train loaded with mung beans produced by Uzbekistan ending a long journey from Tashkent and drawing up at Xi'an Xinzhu Station on May 11th, 2018.

Second, with strategic significance, Central Asia is the priority area for advancing the Silk Road Economic Belt. Central Asia is an important part of China's neighborhood diplomacy, also the core area of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and the thoroughfare for western China to reach out to the outside. Long before the proposal of the Belt and Road Initiative, China and the Central Asian countries had made many explorations in building a community with a shared future. As a critical platform for advancing the building of a community of shared future for humanity, the Silk Road Economic Belt intends to promote the building of a regional community of shared future for Central Asian countries and China's neighboring countries. In this respect, Central Asia is undoubtedly an area with outstanding conditions for carrying out the building of a community of shared future for humanity. This region will play a critical role in building the community of shared future for humanity, the regional community and the SCO community of shared future. Therefore, the outcomes of advancing the Silk Road Economic Belt in this region will have a direct and far-reaching impact on the development of the SCO, China's neighborhood diplomacy, China's opening-up to the west and the security of China's northwest frontier.

CENTRAL ASIAN COUNTRIES' CURRENT PARTICIPATION IN ADVANCING THE SILK ROAD ECONOMIC BELT

The joint efforts of China and Central Asian countries to advance the Silk Road Economic Belt are mainly devoted to aligning national development strategies. The “Five Connectivities” including “policy coordination, infrastructure connectivity, unimpeded trade, financial integration and peopleto-people connectivity” are identified as key and priority sectors for cooperation. In the meantime, the Belt and Road Initiative aims to promote cooperation and connection between regional cooperation mechanisms such as the SCO and Eurasian Economic Union. In review of the overall effect of regional cooperation, we find that in the past five years, China and Central Asian countries have formed a new pattern of cooperation featuring intertwined interests and winwin outcomes; international cooperation has been carried out in various sectors and at multiple levels, showing a positive trend of rolling out from specific projects to regional cooperation. Significant results have been achieved in delivering “Five Connectivities”.

First, in terms of policy coordination, China and Central Asian countries have proactively synergized their economic development strategies, coordinated laws and regulations, and formulated regional cooperation plans and implementation measures, providing policy guarantees at all levels for advancing the Silk Road Economic Belt. At the national level, the Kazakhstan 2050 Strategy, Uzbekistan's “Year of Prosperity and Well-Being”, Kyrgyzstan's “National Sustainable Development Strategy”, Tajikistan Strategies on “Energy, Transportation and Food” and Turkmenistan's development strategy of building a “prosperous and happy era” have all effectively aligned with the Silk Road Economic Belt. At the regional level, in May 2015, China and Russia signed the Joint Statement on Cooperation on the Construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt and Joint Eurasian Economic Union Projects, which injected a strong impetus into the alignment of the two initiatives. In addition, the Silk Road Economic Belt has opened up an enormous opportunity for China and the Central Asian countries to achieve substantial progress in cooperation in economy and trade, science and technology, environmental protection, agriculture and people-to-people exchanges among many more sectors. Relevant laws and regulations have been continuously improved to facilitate such cooperation. At the same time, on the existing institutional platforms such as the SCO, the construction of The Silk Road Economic Belt in Central Asia has made full use of the existing mechanisms and platforms such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation Program and the Asia-Europe Meeting, the Central Asian countries participating in the Silk Road Economic Belt build up trust, address concerns and reach consensus, as an effective way of conducting policy coordination. Through various means including formulating cooperation outlines, leveraging on institutional plat-

The Central Asia has made impressive progress in achieving policy coordination during the process of advancing the Silk Road Economic Belt.forms, improving laws and regulations and the organizing forums, the Central Asia has made impressive progress in achieving policy coordination during the process of advancing the Silk Road Economic Belt.

Second, in terms of facilities connectivity, a number of key projects including roads, railways, airports, ports, tunnels, pipelines and ancillary logistics bases and logistics parks have been completed. A typical example is the China-Kazakhstan logistics base in Lianyungang, which opened in May 2014, and provided Kazakhstan and even Central Asia with the access to the Pacific for the first time. In June 2014, line C of the Central Asia-China gas pipeline was completed and put into operation. Line D is still under construction, which, upon completion, will join the existing lines to become the world's longest transnational natural gas pipeline. In addition, China, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan launched an international road freight traffic routes in February 2018. It was estimated by Uzbekistan, the freight per ton of goods would be reduced by US$300-500. The “Horgos-East Gate” Special Economic Zone has seen an increasing throughput of goods in land ports, which has enabled commodities to flow between Chinese coastal area and Central Asia and Europe. As a priority area for advancing the Silk Road Economic Belt, the rapid development of facility connectivity in Central Asia has played such a prominent exemplary role that it drives the development of other aspects of the Silk Road Economic Belt in the region.

Third, in terms of unimpeded trade, since the implementation of Belt and Road Initiative, China and Central Asian countries have become important trading partners, with closer trade ties, higher total trade volume and deeper cooperation in various sectors. In 2017, the total trade volume between China and the five Central Asian countries increased dramatically from US$ 30.047 billion in 2016 to US$ 35.981 billion. Among them, the bilateral trade volume between China and Kazakhstan was US$ 18 billion, China-Kyrgyzstan US$ 5.448 billion, China-Tajikistan US$ 1.37 billion, China-Uzbekistan US$ 4.22 billion and China-Turkmenistan US$ 6.943 billion. Through dynamic bilateral and multilateral economic and trade cooperation, Central Asia has become one of the regions experiencing the fastest growth in trade along the Belt and Road.

Fourth, in terms of financial integration, such financial platforms as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), Silk Road Fund Co., Ltd. (SRF) and China-Eurasia Economic Cooperation Fund have provided sufficient financing for advancing the Silk Road Economic Belt and laid the ground for dynamic financial cooperation between China and five Central Asian countries. It is worth noting that Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are founding members of the AIIB. On December 14th, 2015, the Silk Road Fund and Kaznex Invest JSC (later restructured as the Kazakhstan Investment Company) signed an agreement on the establishment of an earmarked fund of $2 billion to support China-Kazakhstan cooperation in production capacity and related sectors. In addition, the Silk Road Fund has also signed a package of agreements with enterprises and financial institutions in Uzbekistan to further deepen cooperation in energy, tourism and other sectors. Except these financing institutions, China has also actively explored the possibility of in-depth cooperation with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the Asian Development Bank and other institutions to provide more abundant and sustainable funding for advancing the Silk Road Economic Belt in Central Asia.

Fifth, in terms of people-to-people connectivity, China and Central Asian countries have enhanced the understanding and communication between the people through a diversity of activities. China has held “China-Central Asia International Forum on Cultural Exchange and Cooperation”, “Silk Road International Film Festival” and “Silk Road International Tourism Cooperation Alliance”. It has established platforms such as Shanghai Cooperation Organization University, Confucius Institute, University Alliance of the New Silk Road and Central Asian Institute. China and Central Asian countries also jointly organized “Tourism Year”, “Culture Year”, “Culture Day” and other activities. All these measures have helped strengthen China-Central Asia communication and exchanges across the board and at all levels. To enhance Central Asian countries' understanding of Chinese society and culture, China has also established Chinese cultural centers in the Central Asian countries to tighten people-to-people bonds. In addition, sub-national exchanges becoming more active and dynamic. Shanxi and Shandong, for example, have established friendly relations with their counterparts in Central Asian countries.

On the whole, the Silk Road Economic Belt has rolled out across Central Asia and all Central Asian countries regard the Silk Road Economic Belt as a considerable opportunity for their national and regional development. For the Central Asian countries, the building of the Silk Road Economic Belt has undoubtedly brought tangible benefits to different degrees. For the region, the Silk Road Economic Belt has helped develop a new regional cooperation model that enable the Central Asian countries to engage in closer win-win cooperation. For China, the Silk Road Economic Belt helps boost the building of a community of shared future for humanity and somewhat remove the Central Asian countries' suspicion about China's intention behind the Silk Road Economic Belt.

CHALLENGES FACING CENTRAL ASIAN COUNTRIES IN THE PROCESS OF FURTHER ENGAGING IN ADVANCING THE SILK ROAD ECONOMIC BELT

Initial outcomes have been achieved in advancing the Silk Road Economic Belt in Central Asia, but tough challenges still remain, including the strategic suspicion some Central Asian countries still harbor about the Belt and Road Initiative, various regional cooperation strategies proposed by major powers and international organizations, worsening non-traditional security threats to Central Asian countries, and volatility in relations among Central Asian countries.

Firstly, the Central Asian countries still have suspicion about the Silk Road Economic Belt. Although Central Asian countries widely support and proactively participate in building the Silk Road Economic Belt at the national level, some insiders in the region still have doubts about the Silk Road Economic Belt. Due to such suspicion, fallacies that regard China as a threat, a resource exploiter, and a demographic threat theory are well received or even magnified in some countries in the region.

Secondly, based on their respective interests and regional strategic considerations, major powers and international organizations have put forward a series of integration programs aimed at connecting Eurasia through Central Asia. The more influential conceptions among them are America's New Silk Road Strategy, the EU's Transport Corridor Europe Caucasus Asia (TRACECA) Initiative, Japan's Silk Road Diplomacy, South Korea's initiative of Silk Road Fast Railway and Russia's Eurasian Economic Union. These conceptions have thrown the Central Asian countries into “Cartographic Anxiety”, making them confused and hesitated about self-positioning and development directions. It turned out that Central Asian countries have indeed benefited considerably from major powers' engagement in the regional affairs and healthy competition and coordination among major powers have played a conducive role in sustaining stability in the region. However, attention should be paid to the attempts of some western countries to integrate Central Asia in an exclusive way. For example, the America's New Silk Road Strategy is committed to countering and removing the influence of Russia, China and Iran in Central Asia, which not only undermines the stability of the region, but also somehow causes waste of resources.

Thirdly, the Central Asian countries are facing disturbing non-traditional security threats, to which is the Silk Road Economic Belt cannot afford to turn a blind eye. In August 2016, the Chinese Embassy in Kyrgyzstan suffered tourist bomb attack. In October 2018, prison riot and break took place in Khujand, capital of Sughd in northern Tajikistan. These two incidents that aroused widespread concern were both related to the movement and return of foreign fighters of the “Islamic State”. Therefore, it remains a critical mission of Central Asian countries and China to fight against the “three forces” of terrorism, separatism and extremism, which jeopardize the security of the Central Asian countries and may further trigger the security concerns of the Central Asian countries as well as Chinese enterprises and personnel that are present in the region.

Finally, the complicated relations among Central Asian countries prevent them from jointly advancing the Silk Road Economic Belt. Because of disputes over territorial division, distribution of water resources, ways of fighting against the “three forces” and narratives of history, Central Asian countries experience estrangement and sometimes even tit-for-tat. As a result, the Central Asia has also experienced a process shifting from full integration to “anti-integration”, which has resisted the efforts of foreign countries to promote coordination and cooperation among the Central Asian countries. Relations among Central Asian countries are gradually improving, but it still takes a process to build close ties. The complicated relations and obviously different interests and considerations pose problems for advancing the project. Many transnational cooperation projects of the Silk Road Economic Belt can progress and achieve results on the premise of improved relations and enhanced mutual trust among Central Asian countries.

Besides the above challenges, such factors as political changes in Central Asian countries, adjustment and evolution of international landscape and the trend of economic growth in various countries will also impact the building of the Silk Road Economic Belt in Central Asia. To address these challenges, it is imperative to conduct in-depth research and take precautions beforehand to provide a solid basis for smoothly advancing the Belt and Road Initiative and effectively ensure the Central Asian countries enjoy a sense of fulfillment in participating in advancing the Belt and Road Initiative.

POLICY SUGGESTIONS ON FURTHER ENGAGING CENTRAL ASIAN COUNTRIES IN ADVANCING THE SILK ROAD ECONOMIC BELT

Based on the achievements and challenges of advancing the Silk Road Economic Belt in Central Asia, this paper suggests more efforts on the following aspects to promote the building of the Silk Road Economic Belt in Central Asia.

First, efforts should be made to gain more recognition and support for China-proposed Belt and Road Initiative from all sectors across the Central Asia, including both governments and nongovernmental organizations. Firstly, the public opinions in Central Asia should be tracked and considered to avoid conflicts between the projects and the immediate interests of local people and soften or eliminate misunderstanding and negative impacts. Secondly, full attention should be paid the unique identity each of country and foster a shared social mood and recognition of regional identity through various forms of public diplomacy. Thirdly, discourse and narratives of the Silk Road Economic Belt should be innovated so as to explicitly and effectively articulate China's political, economic, military and cultural policies to the outside world.

Second, effort should be made to further intensify security cooperation within the SCO framework. Although economic cooperation is the highlight of the Belt and Road Initiative, security is also an important aspect that cannot be ignored. The SCO is an indispensable mechanism for security cooperation in the Central Asian region. Synergizing the SCO and the Belt and Road Initiative is an effective way to promote security and stability in the Central Asian region and lay the ground for safely carry out cooperation within the Belt and Road Initiative. In 2018, the SCO Summit in Qingdao steered the direction. It is imperative to fully implement the spirit of the Summit and effectively promote security cooperation among member states.

Third, efforts should be made to ensure the broad benefits shared by Central Asian countries through the Silk Road Economic Belt while avoiding the risk of aggravating the existing conflicts of interest or generating new conflicts among the Central Asian countries. Therefore, China needs to fully communicate with all parties and jointly make detailed plans before the construction of transnational projects. Precaution is needed in the entire process of construction.

Fourth, attention should be paid to economic and trade cooperation. Firstly, efforts should be made to sort out the bilateral and multilateral economic and trade relations among Central Asian countries and between China and the Central Asian. Since bilateral cooperation rides over multilateral cooperation in economic and trade sector in the region, it is necessary to build a closer and more effective multilateral trading system and mechanism. Secondly, efforts should be made to enhance the economic vitality of northwest provinces such as Xinjiang and Gansu. With industrial restructuring, structure, production technology upgrading, better investment environment and higher awareness of social services, these inland provinces can fully utilize their geographical advantages of being adjacent to Central Asia and maximize their impacts on the economic development of northwest China. Thirdly, efforts should be made to achieve unimpeded trade along the Silk Road Economic Belt in Central Asia, it also necessary to further strengthen the economic and trade ties between Central Asia and West Asia, prioritize the development of transportation routes and leverage on more complement aspects of trade.