Comprehensive Disaster Risk Prevention of "the Belt and Road Initiative": Important Significance, Catastrophe Risk, International Cooperation and Strategic Countermeasure

Feng KONG

School of Public Policy and Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; Center for Crisis Management Research, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; Meteorological Cadre Training College, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China

Abstract "The Belt and Road Initiative" is major decision proposed by the CPC Central Committee with comrade Xi Jinping as the core co-ordinating the domestic and international overall situations, and concerns peaceful rise of China and extension of the strategic opportunity period of modernization construction. It needs multi-faceted safeguards to successfully impel "the Belt and Road Initiative", in which disaster risk identification and its effective prevention and control are indispensable links. By integrating geogeographic and atmospheric environmental factors, countries along "the Belt and Road Initiative" belong to frequent occurrence region of major natural disasters. It restricts not only the economic and social development of relevant countries but also implementation effect of "the Belt and Road Initiative" construction, and is also related to the success or failure of Chinese enterprises going out to a certain extent. It should enhance disaster prevention and mitigation and ensure safety of major infrastructure construction related to interconnection of "the Belt and Road Initiative" by disaster identification and prevention, which is the key of successfully impelling strategy implementation and major need for guaranteeing the people’s livelihood of the countries along the line. The work of disaster prevention and mitigation in the countries along the line is generally weak, and it is urgent to raise the level of disaster prevention as a whole by promoting the disaster prevention and mitigation cooperation in the "the Belt and Road Initiative" area; improve the coverage and level of disaster risk insurance; enhance construction in monitoring and early warning capability of natural disaster; strengthen structural adjustment of economy, industry and land use responding to climate change risks; establish a comprehensive disaster reduction forum of "the Belt and Road Initiative", and contain relevant content in "the Belt and Road Initiative" series of high-end forum topics.

Key words The Belt and Road Initiative, Comprehensive disaster prevention and mitigation, Catastrophe risk, Climate change, National security and sustainable development

1 Introduction

Construction of "the Belt and Road Initiative" involves 11 countries in East Asia, 8 countries in West Asia, 8 countries in South Asia, 5 countries in Central Asia, 7 countries in CIS and 16 countries in Central and Eastern Europe, totaling 65 countries and regions[1], and these countries are in natural disaster belt around the Pacific Ocean and in mid-latitude of the northern hemisphere[2]. Meanwhile, towns and settlements are dense along "the Belt and Road Initiative", and major natural disasters seriously threaten public life and property safety, and restrict local socio-economic development and response and participation ability of "the Belt and Road Initiative". With promotion of "the Belt and Road Initiative" construction, China’s disaster defense guarantee needs exceed current domestic-oriented construction task layout, and it must have global disaster monitoring and early warning capabilities beyond national boundaries, carry out effective defense measures, reduce losses caused by various natural disasters, and decline operation risk, which could provide technical guarantee for sustained development of each country in the region and national security of China[3]. To successfully implement "the Belt and Road Initiative" construction, it must enhance disaster prevention and mitigation in the region.

2 Rising international and domestic momentum for deep implementation of "the Belt and Road Initiative" construction

2.1 The United Nations proposing each country to impel "the Belt and Road Initiative" construction"The Belt and Road Initiative" is a road of mutual respect and trust, win-win cooperation and mutual learning from civilization. On March 17, 2017, the United Nations Security Council unanimously adopted Resolution 2344 on Afghanistan issue by 15 votes in favour. It called on the international community to rally consensus on assistance to Afghanistan and enhance regional economic cooperation via "the Belt and Road Initiative" construction, and urged all parties to provide a safe guarantee environment for "the Belt and Road Initiative" construction, strengthen strategic docking of development policies, and promote practical cooperation of interconnection and interaction[4]. The resolution emphases that regional cooperation should be promoted in the spirit of win-win cooperation, to effectively promote security, stability and development in Afghanistan region, and construct the community of human destiny. Under current international background, as long as all the countries along the line work together, it will be able to write a new chapter on the construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt and the Maritime Silk Road in the 21st century, so that people from all sides can share the achievements of "the Belt and Road Initiative".

2.2 Demand of China for impelling "the Belt and Road Initiative" constructionChina’s economy is highly correlated with the world economy. China persists the reform and opening up, constructs a new pattern of all-round opening-up, and deeply merges into the world economic system. Impelling "the Belt and Road Initiative" construction is a special chapter in the "13th Five-Year Plan" of China, and it is China’s need for not only expanding and deepening opening-up but also strengthening mutually beneficial cooperation with Asia, Europe, Africa and other countries. The implementation of "the Belt and Road Initiative" construction greatly promotes economic and trade development, foreign industrial investment, energy cooperation and urban infrastructure construction between China and other countries along the line, and it needs vigorously enhancing the traffic logistics transportation and energy transportation guarantee capacity among countries in the region.

3 Disaster risks along "the Belt and Road Initiative" and their impacts

3.1 Comprehensive disaster risk along "the Belt and Road Initiative"

3.1.1Complex geographical environment and weak disaster resistance ability along "the Belt and Road Initiative". "The Belt and Road Initiative" is throughout Asia, Europe and Africa, and areas involved are high disaster risk regions in the world, and pass through strong and frequent seismic zones and high-occurrence areas of various surface disasters in the world. There is large difference in natural environment along the line, and it crosses the cold, steep and high seismic intensity areas, and monsoon areas of the Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean, with complex and grim disaster pregnant environment, bad stability, high risk of disaster-causing factors and vulnerability of disaster-bearing body, and low recoverability. Additionally, most countries along the line are underdeveloped, with weak disaster resistance ability, especially the material reserve and emergency response ability responding to catastrophic disasters is not strong, causing serious disaster situation. Multi-hazards frequently occur and cluster, and serious disaster situation is caused[5]. Therefore, frequent-occurrence disaster have become an important cause of slow socio-economic development, difficult livelihood and even political instability.

3.1.2Great natural disaster risk in the countries along "the Belt and Road Initiative". Major natural disasters of "the Belt and Road Initiative" contain geological disasters (earthquake, volcanoes, landslide, and debris flow), meteorological disasters (typhoon, rainstorm, flood, drought, sandstorm, heat damage, and cold damage), marine disasters (storm surge, sea wave, red tide, and sea ice), biological disasters (disease, pest, and forest and grassland fire disaster), and eco-environmental disasters (weathering, desertification, soil erosion and salinization). It has the most natural disaster types, the most dangerous and the most serious disasters in the world. Comprehensive disaster risk evaluation results show that annual expected death rate of China by comprehensive natural disasters is No.15[3.27 persons/(million persons·a)]in 65 countries and regions, and the Philippines[25.02 persons/(million persons·a)], Bangladesh[22.81 persons/(million persons·a)]and Vietnam[15.73 persons/(million persons·a)]are in the top three. Annual expected affected population rate of China by comprehensive natural disasters is No.10[1 378 persons/(100 000 persons·a)], and Philippines[6 079 persons/(100 000 persons·a)], Bangladesh[5 430 persons/(100 000 persons·a)]and Vietnam[3 615 persons/(100 000 persons·a)]are in the top three. Annual expected GDP loss of China by comprehensive natural disasters is No.20 (1.01%), while Laos (2.45%), Burma (2.34%) and Kyrgyzstan (1.96%) are in the top three.

3.2 Effects of severe natural disasters on "the Belt and Road Initiative""The Belt and Road Initiative" construction involves a large number of infrastructure, transportation, communication, energy and other major projects. Via preliminary estimation, investment demand in infrastructure construction is as high as 8 trillion USD, and total investment of China in "the Belt and Road Initiative" in future 10 years will amount to 1.6 trillion USD[6]. Large amount of overseas investment and major projects such as transportation, communication and energy will be affected seriously by natural disasters, and it will face huge disaster risks and losses, which seriously threatens social and economic development of countries within the territory and safety of China’s overseas investment. Specifically, it mainly includes the following four aspects.

3.2.1Effects of large earthquake. "The Belt and Road Initiative" traverses junction of interaction between Eurasian plate and Indian plate, African plate and their adjacent areas. Crust-upper mantle structure has obvious regional difference, with complex tectonic deformation and active tectonic activity, and earthquake disaster occurs frequently. In Land Silk Road Economic Belt, Manas M8 earthquake in northern Tianshan Mountains in 1906, Alma M8 earthquake in 1911, Haiyuan M8.5 earthquake in 1920 and Gulang M8 earthquake in 1927 have occurred. Maritime Silk Road crosses boundary zone of the plate, and Sumatra-Andaman M8.9 earthquake in 2004 and Nepal M8.1 earthquake in 2015 have occurred, with serious impacts. It is clear that large earthquake frequently occurs in the region along "the Belt and Road Initiative", and the region has the highest fatality rate and total number of deaths by earthquake.

3.2.2Effects of complex geological hazards. There is large terrain difference along "the Belt and Road Initiative", and risk of geological hazards is high, which affects infrastructure construction. Uplift of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau causes that terrain elevation difference is particularly large in transition belt from plateau to surrounding region, forming topographic characteristics of alpine and canyon, and relative height difference is between 1 000 and 4 000 m. Weathering erosion is intense, and loose deposits are abundant. The region is mainly controlled by Indian Ocean monsoon, and some areas are also affected by southeast monsoon. There is rich rainfall, and its distribution is uneven in the year, and local rainstorm becomes significant climate characteristics. Special geological, geomorphological and climatic conditions make that Central Asia and South Asia regions along "the Belt and Road Initiative" become the most active development areas of geological hazards. In 1981, Zhangzangbu Cirenmakou Ice Lake of Nyalam County in Tibet burst to form debris flow, which destroyed the friendship bridge on the Sino-Nepalese border and caused 200 deaths in Nepal. In 2010, extra large-scale landslide occurred in Atad Budd of Pakistan on China-Pakistan Highway, which formed barrier lake, buried and submerged 25 km of roads. It caused interruption of China-Pakistan Highway, and seriously affected China-Pakistan economy, trade and national defense security.

3.2.3Possible effects of extreme meteorological and hydrological disasters. Geographical environment is complex along "the Belt and Road Initiative", and ocean and meteorological disasters frequently occur. Central Asia, the hinterland of Eurasia, South Asia and Southeast Asia along "the Belt and Road Initiative" have more and serious meteorological and hydrological disasters. In Central Asia and the hinterland of Eurasia along "Silk Road Economic Belt", major disasters contain rainstorm and its induced flood, debris flow and other disasters, as well as meteorological disasters such as high temperature, drought, snowstorm, low temperature and severe cold. In early 2008, snowstorm, severe cold, low temperature and freezing weather swept through southeastern Europe, and several countries and regions from Central Asia to China suffered from the rare cold and frozen weather that never happened in a century, causing more than a thousand people died. In 2010, Pakistan suffered the worst torrential rain and flood in nearly 81 years, and nearly 1 800 people died.

3.2.4Possible effects of extreme marine disasters. Southeast Asia and South Asia along "Marine Silk Road in the 21st century" are regions with high incidence of marine disasters, and major disasters contain typhoon, storm surge, tsunami, wave, sea ice and sea level rise, and there is great disaster risk of personnel and property safety, social and eco-environment loss. Storm surge induced by strong weather system in Northwest Pacific, South China Sea and North Indian Ocean often causes great loss of personnel and property in coastal areas, and the induced heavy wave also causes serious maritime accidents, causing personnel and property losses in marine transportation, fisheries and other production activities. On November 12, 1970, extreme storm surge in Bengal caused that more than 300 000 people, 80 000 cattle and 500 000 poultry died in coastal countries in Bay of Bengal, and economic losses were incalculable. On April 29, 1991, extreme storm surge in Bengal caused that 140 000 people died in coastal countries in Bay of Bengal, and direct economic losses exceeded 3 billion USD. Tsunami disaster induced by submarine earthquake is another particularly serious marine disaster. On December 26, 2004, extreme earthquake tsunami occurred in Indonesia, and earthquake magnitude reached 9.3, and the maximum wave height of its induced tsunami exceeded 10 m. It caused serious disaster losses in coast of Indian Ocean, containing Southeast Asia, South Asia, and Africa, and 292 206 people died in total, while direct economic loss exceeded 13.6 billion USD.

4 Current situation and demand of disaster prevention and mitigation of "the Belt and Road Initiative"

4.1 Current situation of comprehensive disaster prevention and mitigation in countries along "the Belt and Road Initiative"Countries along "the Belt and Road Initiative" very value work of disaster prevention and mitigation, and set specialized research institutions and operational agencies of disaster prevention and mitigation. But due to border division and insufficient funding for research and operational work, its research, observation and work foundations are unbalanced. Most countries have yet not developed their own R&D capabilities, with backward technical system, and regional disaster prevention and mitigation work is in a fragmented state, and it is difficult to form comprehensive preventive ability of monitoring, early warning, prevention and emergency response to major natural disasters. Many countries improve their own national capacity for disaster prevention and mitigation by fighting aid from big powers, and appeal that China plays a leading role in scientific and technological progress of disaster prevention and mitigation in different occasions.

4.2 Current situation of cooperation between countries of "the Belt and Road Initiative" and China in disaster prevention and mitigationAt present, there are 19 countries along "the Belt and Road Initiative" and China signing bilateral agreements on cooperation in seismic science and technology, and they are 6 countries of Mongolia, Pakistan, Southeast Asia (Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand, Laos, Myanmar, and Vietnam), 4 countries of West Asia and North Africa (Israel, Iran, Turkey, and Egyt), 2 countries of Central and Eastern Europe (Czech and Macedonia), and 5 countries of Central Asia and CIS (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia, and Russia). Since 1993, China successively carried out cooperation with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, India, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Laos, and Thailand in meteorological cooperation agreements and bilateral working talks, and cooperation field involved exchange of disaster weather information, exchange of scientific research achievements, meteorological instruments and technical equipment, training of meteorologists. To improve disaster monitoring and early warning capacity of relevant countries in the region, China successively gave receiver station of meteorological satellite data broadcasting system (CMACast) and comprehensive analysis and processing system of meteorological information (MICAPS) to meteorological departments of countries from Central Asia and Southeast Asia, and helped Laos and Myanmar to complete construction of automatic weather station and GPS/MET station. Meanwhile, China provided NWP products for Pakistan, Thailand, Malaysia, Cambodia and Vietnam; training on meteorological operations such as climate monitoring and forecasting and climate services for Thailand, Malaysia, Cambodia and Indonesia; disaster assessment and wind energy resource assessment for Thailand and Malaysia. Moreover, cooperative research was carried out on common issues of interest to both sides by China and Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Nepal, Mongolia. Internationally, the developed countries and international organizations always very value cooperative research and technology transfer in relevant areas, and competition in regional and global geosciences is fierce, forming several international cooperation projects with very large impact and controversy, such as global earthquake model (GEM), global earthquake and volcano risk management (G-EVER). Meanwhile, some international organizations, regional organizations and each country along the line all try to enhance prevention and control capabilities of disaster risk such as marine disaster observation, monitoring, early warning, risk assessment and educational exercises. In general, above-mentioned efforts make that local disaster prevention and mitigation capacity has been improved to a certain extent. Since these cooperative projects lack regional top-level design and the layout of innovation chain, project size is limited, and it is difficult to play supporting and leading role of science and technology, and the generated effects and impacts are still fragmented. It is difficult to fundamentally enhance the ability of disaster prevention and mitigation in this area.

4.3 Outstanding advantages of China in disaster prevention and mitigation fieldChina has made remarkable progress since the implementation of the 12th five-year plan for disaster prevention and mitigation, greatly enhanced the operational capacity of relevant departments, formed strong scientific and technological support for state council and its disaster prevention and mitigation mechanism, such as State Disaster Reduction Commission, State Council Emergency Response Office, State Flood Control and Drought Relief Command and Earthquake Relief Command of the State Council, and successfully responded to a series of major natural disasters, such as Yushu Earthquake, Lushan Earthquake, Zhouqu extra-large mountain torrent and debris flow, super typhoon "Wiemarson", with significant social effect. Referring to domestic experience, it must rely on technology innovation to enhance the capacity of disaster prevention and reduction of "the Belt and Road Initiative".

4.4 Vision and needs for cooperation between countries of "the Belt and Road Initiative" and China in disaster prevention and reductionMany countries of "the Belt and Road Initiative" improve their national capacities for disaster prevention and mitigation by securing aid from major powers, and appeal China’s leading role in scientific and technological progress of disaster prevention and mitigation in different occasions[7-8]. Its demand for disaster prevention and mitigation is reflected in four aspects. (i) It needs overall planning and construction of monitoring system for major natural disasters, and forming rational layout and monitoring and early warning ability. The unified monitoring system could enhance monitoring and early warning capability of each country along the line, and perfect and expand China’s observation and physical modeling ability. It needs establishing some talents training bases for monitoring techniques and data analysis and modeling, improving reliability and stability of regional monitoring system, and enhancing the ability of data sharing. (ii) It needs carrying out basic research on disaster prevention and mitigation across national boundaries. Via establishment of basic physical model and the research on evolution of dynamic process inside and outside the earth and occurrence and evolution of major natural disasters, it needs exploring generation mechanism of major natural disasters in region of "the Belt and Road Initiative", and perfecting technical system for comprehensive prevention of major natural disasters. (iii) It needs transplanting and popularizing mature disaster prevention and mitigation technology of China to countries along "the Belt and Road Initiative" via transfer and diffusion demonstration projects of systemic disaster prevention and mitigation technology, to promote China’s international status and influence. (iv) It needs systemically carrying out research on risk assessment of major natural disasters along "the Belt and Road Initiative", and establishing risk database and service platform of major natural disaster for information sharing service, thereby providing scientific and reliable data and information for large-scale economic construction and infrastructure construction.

5 Countermeasures and suggestions on comprehensive disaster risk prevention of "the Belt and Road Initiative"

5.1 Improving disaster prevention level as a wholeProject investment and park planning should reflect needs of disaster prevention and mitigation, and infrastructure and disaster prevention level in urban areas should be improved. Infrastructure should reach the level of 100-return-year disaster prevention, while the disaster prevention level in urban areas should reach 50-100-return-year.

5.2 Enhancing the scope and level of disaster risk insurance as a wholeIt should transfer disaster risk by economic means. In some regions with high disaster risk, compulsory insurance for the whole scope of production could be implemented, making depth of insurance reach more than 20%.

5.3 Enhancing construction in monitoring and early warning capacity of natural disasterOn the basis of the existing monitoring systems of earthquake, meteorology, ocean, water temperature, environment and disaster factors, it should accelerate establishment of a comprehensive disaster risk assessment system and disaster monitoring and early warning system, to provide basis for economic and social development planning. Areas with high disaster risk should be avoided to provide scientific basis for formulation of disaster emergency plan, and strong scientific and technological support for disaster emergency response.

5.4 Enhancing structure adjustment of economy, industry and land use responding to climate change riskIt should adjust economic structure, decline resource type of economy, and improve technology and population-intensive type of economy, especially economic proportion in non-coastal areas. When development of the first and second industries have reached a certain scale, it should improve proportion of the service sector as quick as possible, especially proportion of tourism service industry. Urban land use in metropolitan areas should be greatly decreased, while proportion of land use in central cities and towns should be improved. It should restrict utilization ratio of cultivated land in desert oasis area and development of agricultural farmland in hilly areas, vigorously develop eco-service industry, and obviously improve proportion of ecological land and water use.

5.5 Establishing integrated disaster reduction forum and alliance of "the Belt and Road Initiative", and including it in the high-end forum summit meeting of "the Belt and Road Initiative"Countries and regions of "the Belt and Road Initiative" are affected by "Asia water tower" to different degrees and typhoon in mid-latitudes of the northern hemisphere or coastal areas of the Western Pacific Ocean. They bear or face influence of the same natural disaster chain, namely earthquake disaster chain and typhoon disaster chain. Once a catastrophe occurs, it will affect many countries in the region. Therefore, it should establish "integrated disaster reduction alliance" under the support of Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and "BRICS National Bank", and it should be included in China-led international organizations and forum summits, such as SCO, China-Africa Cooperation Forum. By issuing "catastrophe lottery" and establishing "disaster fund of the Belt and Road Initiative", catastrophe is responded, and comprehensive disaster prevention and mitigation ability is improved in an all-round way.