21世紀(jì)的建筑與城市規(guī)劃：在無(wú)窮知識(shí)時(shí)代摸索未來(lái)

鮑里斯·沙德-賓索/Boris Schade-Bünsow

黃華青 譯/Translated by HUANG Huaqing

那一類能夠幫助我們?yōu)楹蟠鷦?chuàng)造生活和工作空間的建筑與城市規(guī)劃，在未來(lái)25年間的劇變可能要超過(guò)過(guò)去一個(gè)半世紀(jì)所發(fā)生的一切。建成環(huán)境的未來(lái)面貌將完全超乎想象，也將與我們今天所建造的完全不同。為什么？

160年前，早在1712年就由托馬斯·紐科門發(fā)明的蒸汽機(jī)終于擺脫了初期的瑕疵。工程師詹姆斯·瓦特大大提升了蒸汽機(jī)的效率，使它變得越發(fā)可靠，可以安裝在幾乎世界上任何地方，這也使得世界各地間的交通聯(lián)系因蒸汽鐵路而大大提升。蒸汽機(jī)的這種機(jī)動(dòng)性用途使它在全球各地那些渴求發(fā)展的國(guó)家留下了深刻印記，由此開啟了工業(yè)時(shí)代。蒸汽機(jī)也成為經(jīng)濟(jì)和工業(yè)發(fā)展的引擎。這個(gè)時(shí)代的特征是全球性的、對(duì)于未來(lái)的樂(lè)觀主義，沒人曾考慮到可能帶來(lái)的負(fù)面后果。當(dāng)時(shí)也沒人能預(yù)見，工業(yè)化所有積極或消極的影響，終究是不可逆的。

建筑與城市規(guī)劃領(lǐng)域也發(fā)生了范式轉(zhuǎn)型。千百年來(lái)，國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)皆由農(nóng)業(yè)主導(dǎo)。城市中交易的物品都由鄉(xiāng)村生產(chǎn)。因此，城市皆沿貿(mào)易路線發(fā)展，同時(shí)也成為政治和宗教的控制及代理之地。千百年來(lái)，這一邏輯塑造著城市景觀。至今，歐洲中世紀(jì)城市的結(jié)構(gòu)依然清晰可見。

1860年以來(lái)，工業(yè)化給城市帶來(lái)大規(guī)模的生產(chǎn)。生產(chǎn)需要越來(lái)越多的空間，以至于前所未有的巨大工廠和車間開始在城市各地雜亂無(wú)章地蔓延。價(jià)值創(chuàng)造是由成千上萬(wàn)的工人所供給的，他們離開農(nóng)村、搬到城市，尋求比在農(nóng)村作為農(nóng)民或薪資勞工的辛苦勞作更美好的生活。他們并非只身前往，而是攜妻帶子，有時(shí)甚至是整個(gè)家族。他們成為了城市社會(huì)的新成員。在很短時(shí)間內(nèi)，由于經(jīng)濟(jì)的繁榮，這部分人口構(gòu)成了城市人口的主體。城市社會(huì)的新組成結(jié)構(gòu)是由工人階層界定的。城市社會(huì)再不像幾個(gè)世紀(jì)前那樣階級(jí)森嚴(yán)。城市中的工人階級(jí)也是工會(huì)形成的最初土壤。

另一方面，工業(yè)家是真正的財(cái)富引擎，類似于今天硅谷一代的創(chuàng)業(yè)家。他們大力支持社會(huì)發(fā)展，就像今天一樣，因其控制著勞動(dòng)力資源的流入。新建工人居住區(qū)臨近喧鬧而發(fā)臭的工廠。這對(duì)于生產(chǎn)效率而言是好的，但因?yàn)橛纱驳焦ぷ髋_(tái)的距離被盡可能地縮短，這對(duì)于被迫居住于此的人們而言并不美好。

剛開始，這尚且是個(gè)雙贏局面。工業(yè)家們都富得流油，有些甚至富可敵國(guó)。工人也擁有一份穩(wěn)定的可預(yù)計(jì)收入，以確保家庭的生計(jì)。這不同于過(guò)往的農(nóng)業(yè)社會(huì)，間接導(dǎo)致城市變得更吸引人。進(jìn)步并不僅限于生產(chǎn)力與城市的發(fā)展。醫(yī)療衛(wèi)生水平大大提升，醫(yī)藥、科學(xué)和技術(shù)的發(fā)展推動(dòng)平均壽命的持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)。

然而，這種進(jìn)步很快就逆轉(zhuǎn)了。城市的無(wú)規(guī)劃增長(zhǎng)導(dǎo)致了災(zāi)難般的住宅條件。工人家庭的住宅面積只有幾m2大小，男人、女人和孩子共同擠在這個(gè)狹小空間，有時(shí)還要容納在此借住幾晚的臨時(shí)工。狹窄的居住空間引發(fā)糟糕的衛(wèi)生條件。此外，上下水系統(tǒng)徹底超負(fù)荷運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)，它的擴(kuò)建速度遠(yuǎn)趕不上住宅區(qū)的擴(kuò)張和人口的持續(xù)流入。社會(huì)熱點(diǎn)不斷涌現(xiàn)，仿佛動(dòng)亂可能在任何時(shí)候爆發(fā)。領(lǐng)導(dǎo)階層警惕著不到100年前法國(guó)大革命留下的記憶。混亂和無(wú)政府主義是繁榮經(jīng)濟(jì)的毒藥，必須不惜任何代價(jià)地避免。

對(duì)這一困境的解答，便是世界上最著名的城市規(guī)劃宣言——《雅典憲章》。該憲章于1933年雅典舉行的第四屆世界現(xiàn)代建筑大會(huì)中發(fā)布，建立了工作、生活、休憩和交通功能的分離機(jī)制。城市被分為居住區(qū)和工業(yè)區(qū)。當(dāng)?shù)氐男蓍e娛樂(lè)區(qū)域向公眾開放。在對(duì)未來(lái)的樂(lè)觀信仰支撐下，功能城市的圖景浮現(xiàn)出來(lái)。

在此藍(lán)圖的基礎(chǔ)上，一代代城市規(guī)劃師和建筑師在歐洲及世界各地設(shè)計(jì)、建設(shè)了街區(qū)、城市和區(qū)域。工業(yè)區(qū)與居住區(qū)分離，并由現(xiàn)代新型公共交通方式連接，確保城市的有序擴(kuò)張。工人可以快速抵達(dá)生產(chǎn)場(chǎng)所，而無(wú)需再住在工業(yè)區(qū)的近鄰、進(jìn)而忍受那些隨之而來(lái)的劣勢(shì)。城市與供應(yīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)及物流基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施緊密連接。這形成了一個(gè)獨(dú)立的宇宙，并持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)。

當(dāng)時(shí)的建筑師工作亦基于這一城市模型。多層住宅建筑創(chuàng)造了高密度居住的條件，越來(lái)越多的人住在城市擴(kuò)張帶來(lái)的前所未有的高密度街區(qū)中。城市被劃分為街區(qū)，住宅建筑樹立在街區(qū)邊緣，內(nèi)部空間一般留下一塊矩形場(chǎng)地，在空間足夠的前提下也會(huì)建造一些更簡(jiǎn)單的多層住宅。伊萊沙·格雷夫斯·奧蒂斯在1854年紐約發(fā)明的電梯自動(dòng)防墜保護(hù)系統(tǒng)，最先在美國(guó)東海岸引發(fā)了高層建筑的熱潮，繼而遍布整個(gè)世界。在技術(shù)進(jìn)步的保障下，電梯讓4層以上的生活變成可能。人們抓住這些契機(jī)，讓住宅空間的聚集度進(jìn)一步提升。

工業(yè)化帶來(lái)的新工作方式所塑造的城市，幾乎完全取代了中世紀(jì)的城市模型。人們建造了一個(gè)煥然一新的世界。此前，只有5%的世界人口居住在城市。而今，這個(gè)數(shù)字在全球范圍內(nèi)已超過(guò)50%。實(shí)際上在發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體，接近70%的人口都居住在城市。

The type of architecture and urban planning that will help us create space for future generations to live and work in will change more dramatically in the next 25 years than it has in the past one and a half centuries. The future of our constructed environment will look completely different than anything we have ever imagined. And it is going to differ greatly from what we are building today. Why?

160 years ago, the steam engine, which had actually already been invented by Thomas Newcomen in 1712, finally got rid of its teething problems. The engineer James Watt greatly improved its efficiency,and thus it became increasingly reliable and it could be installed practically anywhere in the world and its mobility improved through its use in railways.With this gained mobile usage, the steam engine made a mark in countries all over the globe that were striving for growth, thus heralding the age of industrialisation. The steam engine became the engine of economic and industrial development.The time was marked by worldwide optimism about the future, in which nobody considered possible negative consequences. And no one at the time could see that industrialisation, with all its positive and negative effects, would actually be irreversible.

A paradigm shift began for architecture and urban planning. For centuries, the economy of states was characterised by agriculture. What was traded in the cities was earned in the countryside. That is why cities developed along trade routes and at the same time were places of political and religious control and representation. For centuries, this was what actually shaped cityscapes, still today, the structures of medieval cities in Europe are clearly visible.

From 1860 onwards, industrialization brought large-scale production to cities. This production required more and more space, and ever larger factories and entire industrial plants began to grow in a disorderly fashion all over the city. The creation of value was provided by thousands of workers who,hoping for a better life than what the hard work as farmers and wage earners in the countryside promised, moved to the city. But they did not come alone. Together with their wives and children,sometimes with their whole families, they became a new part of urban society. And in only a short time they became the largest part of it in terms of numbers due to the prospering economy. The new composition of urban society was defined by the working class. Never again was the urban society to be as hierarchical as it had been for centuries before.This proletariat in the city was the first breeding ground for workers' organisations and trade unions.

On the other hand, the industrialists were the actual drivers of fortune, comparable to today's protagonists of the Silicon Valley generation. They were very much in favour of the social development of the time, as - similarly to today - they controlled the influx of their resource: manpower. Residential areas for workers were built in close proximity to the noisy and smelly factories. This was good for the efficiency of production, as the distance from the bed to workbench and assembly line could be kept as short as possible. But it was not so good for the people who were forced to live there.

Initially, this was nevertheless a win-win situation. The industrial entrepreneurs became wealthy, some of them even immeasurably rich. And the workers had a regular, predictable income to ensure the survival of their families. This was not previously the case in a society shaped by agriculture and thus led indirectly to the cities becoming even more attractive. However, progress was not limited to productivity and urban development alone. Health care improved, and developments in medicine, science and technology led to a constant increase in life expectancy.

But very soon this progress was actually reversed. The unplanned growth of cities led to catastrophic housing situations. Workers and their families shared a few square metres, men, women and their children lived in very small spaces together with single day labourers, to whom they rented a free bed for a few nights. The cramped living space situation led to miserable hygienic conditions. In addition, the sewage system and water supply were completely overloaded and their expansion could not keep up with the speed of growth of the residential areas and the constant influx of people. Social and societal hotspots developed in which unrest could flare up at any time. The leading class was warned by the memories of the revolutionary years, which, at the time, went back not even a hundred years. Chaos and anarchy are poison for a prospering economy and had to be avoided at all costs.

The answer to this situation was the best known urban planning manifesto in the world. The Athens Charter, adopted at the IV Congress of the Congrès Internationaux d'Architecture Moderne (CIAM) in Athens in 1933, established the separation of the functions of working, living, resting and moving.The city was divided into residential and industrial areas. Local recreation areas were now accessible to everyone. Based on the belief in the optimistic promises of the future, the image of the functional city emerged.

With this blueprint, generations of urban planners and architects developed neighbourhoods,cities and entire regions in Europe and all over the world. Industrial areas and separate residential districts, which were connected by new, modern forms of public transport, enabled the controlled growth of cities. Now workers could quickly reach the production sites without having to live in their immediate vicinity with the associated disadvantages. The city was connected to a network of supply and transport infrastructures. It took on the form of an independent cosmos, which continued to grow.

The architecture at the time was based on this city model. Multi-storey residential buildings made dense living possible, and more and more people now lived in the ever denser quarters of the growing cities. The city was divided into blocks,where residential houses were built on the edges of the blocks, while the inner areas of the mostly rectangular plots included simpler, often multistorey houses if sufficient space was available.Elisha Graves Otis's invention of the automatic fall protection system for elevators in 1854 in New York first triggered a boom in high-rise buildings in the city on the east coast and then all around the world. Thanks to technical progress, elevators now made living beyond the 4th floor possible. These opportunities were seized and the concentration of living space increased further.

建筑與城市規(guī)劃的下一次大變革始于1950年左右的歐洲和北美。在經(jīng)歷兩次世界大戰(zhàn)超乎想象的災(zāi)難后，歐洲國(guó)家迅速在廢墟上展開重建，世界經(jīng)濟(jì)也很快復(fù)蘇。財(cái)富的穩(wěn)步增長(zhǎng)以及世界范圍內(nèi)關(guān)于“永遠(yuǎn)再無(wú)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)”的協(xié)議共識(shí)最初點(diǎn)燃了經(jīng)濟(jì)的持續(xù)繁榮。然而，除了日本，“永遠(yuǎn)再無(wú)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)”的頌詞卻注定短命。陣營(yíng)轉(zhuǎn)換，利益變化，冷戰(zhàn)揭幕。對(duì)一場(chǎng)可能核戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)的恐懼，主導(dǎo)著此時(shí)的政治與外交。

然而，經(jīng)濟(jì)并非這一政治災(zāi)難的決定因素。相反，經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速增長(zhǎng)讓很多國(guó)家走向繁榮。到1950年代，已有相當(dāng)一部分人能夠?qū)崿F(xiàn)擁有私人轎車的夢(mèng)想，這在不久前還難以想象。盡管汽車早在50年前就已發(fā)明，但直到很久之后它才走入普通人的家庭。生產(chǎn)方式的改進(jìn)及塑料等現(xiàn)代材料的運(yùn)用大大推動(dòng)了汽車制造技術(shù)的發(fā)展。同時(shí)，汽車價(jià)格變得便宜，意味著歐洲和北美家庭能夠開始存錢購(gòu)買私人汽車。汽車成了社會(huì)發(fā)展的同義詞和標(biāo)志物。擁有一輛汽車，仿佛就實(shí)現(xiàn)了人生的某個(gè)目標(biāo)。擁有汽車的人便加入了冉冉上升的中產(chǎn)階層。他們居于社會(huì)中層，也樂(lè)于展示這一地位。這在每周六各地郊區(qū)住宅區(qū)的車道兩旁尤為顯而易見，在那里，父親和兒子一起清洗、擦拭、拋光這件珍貴的家庭資產(chǎn)，從而在周日的全家出行中展示和慶祝。汽車此時(shí)成了出類拔萃的身份象征。從1950年到新千年，對(duì)私人汽車的渴望聯(lián)系著所有社會(huì)階層和代際。甚至到今天，對(duì)個(gè)人高速交通工具的渴望依然主導(dǎo)著全球各個(gè)種族群體的行為。

這種渴望的滿足帶來(lái)大眾的動(dòng)力化和機(jī)動(dòng)性。數(shù)百萬(wàn)輛的汽車就需要數(shù)百萬(wàn)公里、各種形式和規(guī)模的道路。如今甚至世界上最遙遠(yuǎn)的角落，皆可通過(guò)鋪砌良好的道路抵達(dá)。土地從未得到如此深度的開發(fā)。但是，汽車不能一刻不停地運(yùn)動(dòng)，這就帶來(lái)停車空間的需求，多層停車場(chǎng)如同多層住宅般涌現(xiàn)。城市規(guī)劃悄無(wú)聲息地適應(yīng)了這一切。全世界的城市都變得對(duì)汽車友好。如今，它幾乎是一個(gè)結(jié)構(gòu)化的、現(xiàn)代化的城市最標(biāo)志性的印象。

同時(shí)，跨區(qū)域的個(gè)人交通工具使人們可以選擇居住在遠(yuǎn)離城市中心的郊區(qū)。人們無(wú)需再住在緊鄰工作地或是公共交通樞紐的地方。所需的一切就是道路連接。這幾乎是人人皆備的。那些無(wú)規(guī)劃的、汽車友好城市的建設(shè)者們確保了這一點(diǎn)。

除了城市中的居住區(qū)外，城市周邊的住宅區(qū)也迅速發(fā)展起來(lái)。距離并不相關(guān)，交通擁堵也尚不常見，駕駛自己的汽車是件愉悅而充滿自豪的事情。這些居住區(qū)大多是擁有前花園的一戶或兩戶住宅。這種居住方式所需的土地量是巨大的。

城市規(guī)劃完全取決于時(shí)代的經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會(huì)發(fā)展，這種個(gè)人機(jī)動(dòng)性帶來(lái)的全新契機(jī)在根本上第二次顛覆了上個(gè)世紀(jì)的城市面貌。然而這一次，它或許是可逆的。

那么今天又在發(fā)生什么？一方面，我們?cè)谖磥?lái)將擁有一種完全不同的機(jī)動(dòng)性。旅行的格言不再是更快、更遠(yuǎn)。交通工具可能會(huì)變慢、變安靜。未來(lái)，大部分人不會(huì)再使用汽車或飛機(jī)出行，而是改用步行或自行車。同時(shí)，地方和長(zhǎng)距離的公共軌道交通會(huì)扮演更重要的角色。私人燃油車會(huì)被使用清潔能源的、很可能是多人共享的汽車所取代。與今天不同的是，這些汽車單日使用時(shí)間將遠(yuǎn)超1個(gè)小時(shí)。如果說(shuō)一輛車的使用時(shí)間翻了4倍，也就是說(shuō)一天使用時(shí)間為4個(gè)小時(shí)，那么城市在維持相同交通容量的前提下，所需的汽車和停車空間將只是今天的1/4。

這種機(jī)動(dòng)性變化將帶來(lái)另一種類型的城市，就像60年前汽車友好城市的發(fā)展一樣。然而，擁有最大化機(jī)動(dòng)性的未來(lái)城市將會(huì)徹底不同。它會(huì)更安靜、更清潔、更宜居，這會(huì)讓城市變成更具吸引力的居住地。同時(shí)，它也會(huì)引起政客的更多興趣。

比機(jī)動(dòng)性變化更重要的是工作方式的變革。在“數(shù)字化”和它的孿生姐妹“全球化”的作用下，工作不再固定于某個(gè)特定地點(diǎn)。工作內(nèi)容也在發(fā)生轉(zhuǎn)變，因?yàn)楦郊觾r(jià)值不再只與產(chǎn)品的生產(chǎn)有關(guān)。同時(shí)，社會(huì)人際互動(dòng)方式也發(fā)生著轉(zhuǎn)變。即便是今天的第一批“數(shù)字原生代”，也很難想象未來(lái)的交互和溝通方式。不過(guò)，這些發(fā)展前景中有些因素已基本確定。溝通將變得數(shù)字化，長(zhǎng)距離的溝通也可能像今天的面對(duì)面溝通一樣適于傳遞和表達(dá)感受和情緒。工作方式的數(shù)字化及全球化的結(jié)合將帶來(lái)新的商務(wù)模型。處理加工可在任何地方發(fā)生，工作也將變得去中心化、時(shí)間自由化。

未來(lái)的工作方式與機(jī)動(dòng)性這兩者的變化，將會(huì)劇烈地、持續(xù)地改變此后25年我們的生活。然而，城市的規(guī)劃將構(gòu)想無(wú)限的生命周期，住宅的使用壽命也將大大延長(zhǎng)。過(guò)去，工作方式和機(jī)動(dòng)性這兩個(gè)決定城市規(guī)劃的因素之一發(fā)生變化，都足以讓我們的建成環(huán)境煥然一新。一開始是工業(yè)化改變了城市面貌，大約100年后汽車又徹底重塑了城市。

今天，工作方式和機(jī)動(dòng)性這兩個(gè)參數(shù)在同時(shí)發(fā)生著高速、本質(zhì)性的轉(zhuǎn)變。無(wú)論我們是否樂(lè)見，城市和建筑也將面臨根本性變革。但不同于150年前或70年前，今天的建筑師和城市規(guī)劃師有責(zé)任和義務(wù)，不要讓它自生自滅，而是用創(chuàng)新創(chuàng)造性的理念塑造未來(lái)的空間。

The new concept of work brought about by industrialisation thus replaced the medieval city model and almost completely replaced it. An entirely new world of construction was thus developed. At the time, only 5 per cent of the world's population lived in cities. Today, that figure has exceeded 50 per cent worldwide. In fact, in developed economies,close to 70 per cent of the population have actually decided to live in cities.

The next great revolution in architecture and urban planning began in Europe and North America around 1950. After the unimaginable suffering of the two world wars and the immediate reconstruction of the destroyed countries in Europe, the global economy regained its strength.Modest economic wealth and the international social agreement that there should "never again be war" were the initial spark that set off increasing economic prosperity. Unfortunately, with the exception of Japan, the mantra of "never again war"was short-lived. Alliances shifted, interests changed,and the Cold War began. The dystopia of a world after a possible nuclear strike determined politics and diplomacy.

However, the economy was not the determining factor for this political disaster. On the contrary.The rapidly growing economies generated prosperity for many. Large parts of the population were now able to fulfil their dream of owning their own car in the 1950s, which was something that was prettymuch unimaginable before. Although the car had already been invented 50 years earlier, it only became something ordinary people could aspire to own at a much later time in history. Improved production methods and modern materials, such as plastics, greatly improved the technology of car manufacturing. At the same time, cars became cheaper, meaning that families across Europe and North America could now start saving for their own vehicle. The car became a synonym and symbol for social advancement. Whoever owned one, had made it in life. Those who possessed their own car belonged to the up-and-coming middle class. They had found their place in the middle of society and liked to show it. This became particularly evident on Saturdays on the driveways of houses across the country. It was here that fathers and their sons washed, polished and shined the treasured family possession in order to present and celebrate it on Sunday on a family excursion. The car was now the status symbol par excellence. From 1950 until the turn of the millennium, the longing for one's own car connected all social classes and generations.Even today, the longing for individual, rapid transportation determines the actions of entire ethnic groups in countries around the world.

The fulfilment of this longing has led to mass motorization and mass mobilisation. Millions of vehicles require millions of kilometres of roads in all shapes and sizes. Even the furthest corners of the world can today be reached on paved and asphalted roads. Never before has the land been better developed. But a car is never constantly in motion,which is why space for parking became necessary and the multi-storey car park was thus invented analogous to multi-storey living. Urban planning adapted to all of this noiselessly and obediently.The car-friendly city became a reality all over the world. Today it is the most distinctive image of a structured, modern city.

At the same time, area-wide individual transport enabled people to live on the outskirts, far from city centres. Now it was no longer necessary to live in the immediate vicinity of one's workplace or a public transport hub. All that was necessary was a road connection. And that was something everyone had. Those building the unplanned, car-friendly city made sure of that.

In addition to the residential quarters in the city, housing estates were created in the peripheries of cities. Distances were of no interest, traffic jams were still largely unknown, and driving one's own car was a pleasure and self-adulation at the same time.These settlements were dominated by one-family and two-family houses with front gardens. The amount of land required for this type of living was immense.

Urban planning was decisively dependent on the economic, social and societal developments of the time, and the new, changed possibilities of individual mobility fundamentally changed the look of cities for the second time in the last century. But this time, it might actually be reversible.

So what's happening today? On one hand, we will be dealing with a completely different kind of mobility in the future. The maxim of locomotion will no longer be faster and further. Mobility will become slower and quieter. In the future, most people will no longer travel by car or plane, but on foot or by bicycle. At the same time, public local and long-distance rail transport will play a greater role.The privately owned car powered by fossil fuels will be replaced by a vehicle which is set in motion with electrical energy and will most likely be shared by many different people. Unlike today, it will be used for much more than an hour a day. If, however, the time of use were only to quadruple, i.e. a shared car would be used for four hours a day, the number of vehicles and thus the space required in cities would be reduced to a quarter for the same transport capacity.

These changes in mobility will lead to another type of city, as happened 60 years ago with the development of the car-friendly city. However, the city of the future with optimised mobility will be completely different. It will be quieter, cleaner and more worth living in, thus making it an even more desirable place for people to inhabit. And that, in turn, will make it interesting for politicians.

Even more serious than the changes in mobility are the changes in work. Digitalisation,together with its sister globalisation, are leading to a situation where work is no longer bound to a specific location. In addition, the content of work is changing, as the added value is no longer linked solely to the creation of products. At the same time, the social interaction between people is changing. Even the first generation of "digital natives" today can hardly imagine what interaction and communication might look like in the future.But some things about these developments are already pretty-much certain today. Communication will be digital, possible over long distances and suitable for expressing and exchanging feelings and moods in the same way as is possible today in faceto-face communication. The digitalisation of work in combination with globalisation will create new business models. Processes can take place anywhere so that work will become increasingly decentralised and time-independent.

These two changes, the future of work and the future of mobility, will alter our lives considerably and lastingly in the coming 25 years. However,cities are planned for an infinite life cycle and even houses should be used for a far longer period of time. In the past, even a change in the two factors that determine urban planning - work and mobility- was enough to give our constructed environment a new appearance. At first, industrialisation changed the face of the city, and almost 100 years later the car completely redesigned it.

Today, both parametres, work and mobility,are changing simultaneously, quickly and fundamentally. Cities and architecture will change just as fundamentally, whether we like it or not. But unlike 150 or 70 years ago, architects and urban planners today have a duty and an obligation to not leave this process to chance but to create space for the future with innovative and creative ideas.