AI的未來究竟是什么？
——讀《人工智能革命：歷史、當下與未來》

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不久前，一場有關智能和未來的盛會在巴渝大地舉行。資深律師和重慶造機器人的PK，能自動避讓行人或障礙物的汽車，可以智慧照明和智能發(fā)電的“智慧能源小鎮(zhèn)”……場館內外，一個個神奇得令人眼花繚亂。

前面說的這些，都可以用一個詞來概括：人工智能。

Not long ago, a grand event about intelligence and the future was held in Chongqing. Senior lawyers are PK with the Robots made in Chongqing, such as cars that can automatically avoid pedestrians or obstacles, "smart energy towns" that can smartly lighting and intelligently generate electricity ... inside and outside the venue, there are one after another dazzling scenes.

All of the above mentioned can be summed up in one phrase: artificial intelligence.

人工智能，英文名稱Artificial Intelligence，英文縮寫AI。關于AI的定義是什么，現實世界里眾說紛紜。AI的未來又會是什么，各種說辭更是五花八門。不過歸納一下，大約逃不脫兩大類：助推器，或者掘墓人。

助推器者，AI是人類突破自我、邁向更高層次的推手，是我們在解放自我的不斷嘗試中給自己煉制的一粒靈丹妙藥，是人類打通任督二脈的那股氣，脫胎換骨的那種神，鳳凰涅槃的那把火。借由AI，我們可以實現人類千萬年來夢寐以求的那種自由。

掘墓人者，顧名思義，AI是人類走向滅亡的灰暗之路，是先給予我們希望最后讓我們絕望的惡魔，是我們飲鴆止渴的那口藥。我們制造出的這個人類最大的驚喜和驕傲，也最終將被其埋葬。

這不是我說的，是一本叫《人工智能革命：歷史、當下與未來》的書說的。作者叫王天一，北郵的一名博士。王博士說，人工智能是從哪里來的呢？

1956年8月，在美國新罕布什爾州漢諾佛小鎮(zhèn)的達特茅斯學院，一群日后震驚世界的學者組了一個群。他們在討論“用機器來模仿人類學習以及其他方面的智能”這個看似有些不食人間煙火的問題時，提出一個概念——Artificial Intelligence。

這是人工智能和人類的第一次親密接觸。

那人工智能最早是干嘛的呢？使用計算機程序代替人類進行自動推理來證明數學定理。

在相當“漫長”的一段時間里，AI做的就是這個：快速超高速的計算機幫助我們從冗長重復的計算中解放出來。今天，人工智能已經在醫(yī)療保健、語音識別、教育等領域飛速發(fā)展并產生了不可估計的影響，自動駕駛和無人機的出現，更是正在改變全球的物流體系。根據埃森哲的研究報告估計，到2035年，人工智能可以使許多發(fā)達國家的年度經濟增長翻倍。

“人工智能”was called Artificial Intelligence in English, abbreviated to AI. What is the definition of AI? Opinions vary in the real world. And what is the future of AI, the opinions are even more varied.However, in summary, it can't escape two major categories: boosters, or gravediggers.

The reasons for deeming it as booster are AI is a pusher for human beings to break through ourselves and move to a higher level. It is a panacea for us to refine ourselves in the constant attempt to emancipate ourselves. It is the Qi (power) of human beings to break through the governor and conception vessels, the spirit to thoroughly remould ourselves, as well as the fire of nirvana of phoenixes. With AI, we can realize the freedom that mankind has dreamed of for thousands of years.

The reasons for deeming it as gravedigger are,just as its name implies, AI is the dark road to the perish of mankind. It is the demon that gives us hope and finally despairs. It is the medicine we drink and quench our thirst. The greatest surprise and pride that we have created will eventually bury ourselves.

This is not what I said, and it was said in a book calledArtificial Intelligence Revolution: History, Present and Future,which was wrote by Wang Tianyi, a doctor from Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications. Dr. Wang said, where did artificial intelligence come from?

In August 1956, at Dartmouth College in Hanover, New Hampshire of United States, a group of scholars that shocked the world afterwards formed a group. When they talked about "using machines to imitate human learning and other aspects of intelligence", a seemingly otherworldly issue, the concept of "Artificial Intelligence" was put forward.

This is the first intimate contact between artificial intelligence and humans.

What was artificial intelligence used for at the very begging? It was used to apply computer programs to perform automatic reasoning on behalf of humans to prove mathematical theorems.

In a rather "long" period of time, AI did this:the fast and ultraspeed computers helped us to free ourselves from tedious and repetitive calculations.Today, artificial intelligence has developed rapidly in the fields of health care, speech recognition, education, etc., and has made inestimable difference. The emergence of automatic driving and UAVs is changing the global logistics system. According to Accenture's research report, it is estimated that by 2035,artificial intelligence can double the annual economic growth of many developed countries.

可人工智能身上畢竟還有“人工”二字。凡是人類創(chuàng)造的東西，都逃不脫人類的哲學系統(tǒng)。AI也一樣。

人類哲學的一大精華就是事分陰陽，物極必反。這對AI同樣適用。“像任何變革技術一樣，人工智能帶來了一些風險，并且從工作和經濟到安全和監(jiān)管問題的幾個方面提出了復雜的政策挑戰(zhàn)。人工智能系統(tǒng)也可以以驚人的方式表現，我們越來越依賴人工智能來提供決策和操作設備，這無疑增加了預測和控制復雜技術將如何行為的挑戰(zhàn)。”

王博士這段話說得很學究，翻譯成大白話，其實就是“AI會取代人類嗎”？

20多年前，計算機“深藍”擊敗國際象棋大師卡斯帕羅夫，靠的是無窮盡的計算。兩年前，阿爾法狗戰(zhàn)勝圍棋世界冠軍李世石，一年前的阿爾法狗升級版“大師（Master）”橫掃柯潔等圍棋大師，背后的武器已經是可以通過人工神經網絡和深度學習快速自我升級的“想”。當年面對阿爾法狗的勝利，人類沮喪的面孔還歷歷在目。

After all, there is a word of "artificial" in artificial intelligence. And everything created by human can't escape the philosophical system of human beings. AI is no exception.

One of the great essences of human philosophy is that things are divided into yin and yang, and they will develop in the opposite direction when become extreme. The same is true for AI. "Like any revolutionary technology, artificial intelligence brings some risks and puts forward complex policy challenges in terms of work, economy to safety and regulatory issues. Artificial intelligence systems can also manifest in amazing ways, and we increasingly rely on artificial intelligence to provide decisionmaking and operational equipment, which undoubtedly adds the challenge of predicting and controlling how complex technologies will behave. "

Dr. Wang’s words are academic, and if translated into lucid ones, in fact, it shall be “Will AI replace humans?”

More than 20 years ago, the computer "deep blue" defeated chess master Kasparov. What it relied on was indefinite calculations. Two years ago,the AlphaGo defeated the world chess champion Lee Sedol. A year ago, the AlfaGo "Master", the upgraded version of AlphaGo won the masters of Go and other chess masters including Ke Jie in a sweep. The weapon behind it has already been able to "thought"through artificial neural networks and deep learning,and quick self-upgradation. In the face of the victory of the AlphaGo, the frustration on people's face is still vivid.

AI還有什么可以阻擋呢？

就如工業(yè)革命初期，手工工人砸爛織布機那樣，人們對AI的警惕和恐懼再次高漲。越來越多的人開始擔心這個人類精心呵護養(yǎng)育成長的寶貝在不遠的將來會把我們埋葬進歷史的塵土中。前不久，埃隆·馬斯克，這位Space X和特斯拉的創(chuàng)始人、現實版“鋼鐵俠”就和眾多各界大腕一起發(fā)表聯合聲明，要求聯合國以國際法的形式，禁止對基于人工智能的致命性自主武器系統(tǒng)的開發(fā)。這個聯合聲明的發(fā)起者中，還有斯蒂芬·霍金。

基于生物的本能，人對自己不可控制的東西有兩大反應——避讓或者消滅（同化也是消滅的一種形式）。如今，人工智能已經避無可避——你能想象沒有手機支付的日子嗎？——于是我們可以選擇的路似乎只剩下了后者。可看看好萊塢電影里那些上躥下跳、上天入地的機器人，如果這就是人工智能的未來，那么我們口中的消滅，似乎充滿黑色幽默。

于是，現實世界里，不少人都在說，AI將是人類的掘墓人。

不過王博士似乎并沒有站在這一陣營。他在書中用了很大的篇幅來告訴我們，AI要想戰(zhàn)勝人類，人工智能要想超越乃至取代人類智能，不僅在當下，而且在可預見的未來，都還只是一個夢。

支持王博士這一論點的，就是他和許多人工智能研究者、思考人類命運的哲學家都相信的那句話，“人工智能已經在幾乎所有需要思考的領域超過了人類，但是在那些人類和其他動物不需要思考就能完成的事情上，還差得很遠?！?/p>

對這一事實有力的說明就是驗證碼的應用：幾乎所有的網站都要求你在注冊時辨認并輸入一串扭曲的字符，其目的在于證明服務器另一端的你是人類而非機器，這個連識字的小朋友都能完成的任務，迄今為止卻沒有任何計算機算法能夠做到。

What else can block AI?

Just as in the early stage of the industrial revolution, manual workers smashed the looms, and people's vigilance and fear of AI arise again. More and more people began to worry that the treasure that human being cares meticulously will bury us in the dust of history in the near future. Not long ago,Elon Musk, the founder of Space X and Tesla, and the real version of "Iron Man", issued a joint statement with many celebrities, demanding that the United Nations shall take the form of international law, forbid the artificial intelligence based on development of a deadly autonomous weapon system.Among the initiators of this joint statement, there is Stephen Hawking.

Based on the instinct of biology, people have two major reactions to things that they cannot control - avoiding or destroying (assimilation is also a form of extinction). Nowadays, artificial intelligence has been irresistable. Can you imagine the days when there is no mobile payment? - So the road we can choose seems to have only remained the latter. Look at the robots jumping up and down in Hollywood movies, and if this is the future of artificial intelligence, then the destruction in our mouth seems to be full of black humor.

Therefore, in the real world, many people are talking about that AI will be a human gravedigger.

However, Dr. Wang does not seem to be standing in this camp. He uses a lot of words in the book to tell us that if AI wants to defeat human beings,artificial intelligence wants to transcend and even replaces human intelligence, not only in the present,but also in the foreseeable future, it is still a dream.

What supports the argument of Dr. Wang is that he and many AI researchers and philosophers who think about human destiny believe that "Artificial Intelligence has surpassed humans in almost all areas that needs considering, but in those things that humans and other animals can finish without thinking, it is still far behind. "

A powerful explanation for this fact is the application of identifying code: Almost all websites require you to recognize and enter a string of distorted characters when registering, the purpose of which is to prove that at the other side of the server,you are the human beings rather than the machine.The task that even literate children can do, so far, no computer algorithms can make it.

其實說到底，目前對AI的恐懼是我們出于生命繁衍目的而潛生的本能。如果我們高于“本能”去想一想，人類智能和人工智能都還有很大的發(fā)展空間，除非發(fā)生突變，還談不上誰滅了誰。目前，兩者更是處于相互促進的蜜月期。

回望地球的發(fā)展，總是每隔一段時間，就會產生一個意想不到的家伙站上食物鏈的頂端。從一開始的蛋白質到后來的藍藻，從三葉蟲到恐龍，從獅子老虎到人類，可以說，每一次的新“霸主”，都是其前任想不到的。

不過，生命的經驗顯示，歷次的“霸主”更迭，都是建立在碳基——構成上述這些“霸主”生命的基礎都是碳原子——的基礎上，而以電腦為代表的人工智能的基礎是“硅基”。從碳基到硅基，這種根本性的顛覆會不會發(fā)生，何時發(fā)生，我無法回答。

可不管怎樣，人類已經到了必須再次奮進的時刻。曾有報道稱，今后只有在腦力和體力上都不斷學習，豐富和強化自己的人才能生存下來。

你信嗎？

別問AI，問問你的內心。

In fact, in the end, the current fear towards AI is our instinct for the purpose of life reproduction. If we think above the "instinct", there is still huge space for human intelligence and artificial intelligence. Unless there is a mutation, we can't talk about who killed each. At present, the both sides are in mutual promotion of the honeymoon period.

In retrospecting the development of the Earth,there is always an unexpected guy standing on top of the food chain every once in a while. From the beginning of the protein to the later cyanobacteria, from the trilobite to the dinosaur, from the lion, tiger to the human, it can be said that every new "overlord"is unexpected for his predecessor.

However, the experience of life exhibits that the previous changes of "overlord" are based on the carbon radical- above "overlord" lives are based on carbon atoms - and the basis of artificial intelligence represented by computers can be "silicon base". From the carbon base to the silicon base, whether this fundamental subversion will happen, and when it will happen, I cannot answer.

In any case, mankind has reached a moment that it is necessary to forge ahead again. It has been reported that in the future, only those who are constantly learning in terms of mental and physical strength and enrich and strengthen themselves can survive.

Do you believe it?

Do not ask AI, ask your inner heart.