頂薪麻煩

Kevin OConnor

SUPERSTARS CAN EARN MORE THAN EVER THANKS TO THE LATEST COLLECTIVE BARGAINING AGREEMENT. BUT NBA PLAYERS AND OWNERS ARE QUICKLY FINDING OUT THAT THE NEW ARRANGEMENT ISNT ALL THAT IT WAS BILLED TO BE.

因為最新版勞資協(xié)議，超級巨星能拿到前所未有的高薪。但NBA球員和老板很快發(fā)現(xiàn)，新協(xié)議和最初設(shè)想的有些不同。

Imagine someone told you one year ago that Blake Griffin would be on the Pistons， Chris Paul would be on the Rockets， Jimmy Butler would be on the Timberwolves， DeMarcus Cousins would be on the Pelicans， Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward would be on the Celtics， and Paul George and Carmelo Anthony would be on the Thunder.

想象一下一年前有人跟你說，布雷克·格里芬在活塞，克里斯·保羅在火箭，吉米·巴特勒在森林狼，德馬庫斯·考辛斯在鵜鶘，凱里·歐文和戈登·海沃德在凱爾特人，保羅·喬治和卡梅洛·安東尼在雷霆。

Have so many All-NBA-caliber players ever changed teams in a single calendar year？ The transaction log has been on fire since Kevin Durant joined the Warriors in the summer of 2016. But its not just the formation of a superteam in Golden State thats shaken up the league. A new collective bargaining agreement and the cap boom two summers ago have created an abnormally active atmosphere. Some NBA executives dont think the changes are going away， and that they could have major repercussions moving forward.

NBA最佳陣容級別的球員在過去一年里發(fā)生這么多變動？自從凱文·杜蘭特2016年夏天加入勇士，聯(lián)盟的變化就沒有停止過。但改變聯(lián)盟格局的，并非只是金州勇士。兩年前，全新的勞資協(xié)議及薪金空間造就了反常的活躍氛圍。一些NBA高管不認(rèn)為改變已經(jīng)停止，而這些改變會給未來造成大影響。

There were rumblings in 2014 that LeBron James would push for the removal of the max contract， a position that stars like Durant and Kobe Bryant supported. Its true that the leagues superstars dont make as much as they probably should， but such a drastic shift would have opened the door for a single player to earn more money than every other player on his team combined， like when Michael Jordan made$33.1 million in the 1997-98 season. The NBA instituted the max contract the year after Jordans big payday， and it has remained since.

2014年時有傳言稱，勒布朗·詹姆斯會推動非常頂薪合同，這個態(tài)度得到了杜蘭特和科比這些明星的支持。聯(lián)盟超級巨星沒有得到理應(yīng)得到的回報，這是事實，但上述極端的改動會導(dǎo)致出現(xiàn)一名球員的薪金比全隊剩余球員薪金總和還要多的情況，比如1997-98賽季拿到3310萬美元的邁克爾·喬丹。喬丹拿到大合同的一年后，NBA設(shè)立了頂薪合同，并沿用至今。

Instead of abolishing the max altogether， the players union wound up negotiating other changes， including a new set of possible max contracts. A free agent or designated rookie could now earn up to 25 percent of the cap， designated rookies or veterans could now earn up to 30 percent if they hit certain criteria， and superstar players that hit certain qualifications are eligible for the designated veteran player extension， or the "supermax，" which can be up to 35 percent of the cap but can only be given by the team that drafted the player. The latter two were similar in the previous CBA， while the supermax is a brand-new creation.

與其徹底廢除頂薪合同，球員工會選擇協(xié)商其他變化，包括一系列新的頂薪合同。自由球員或指定新秀的薪金可以占到工資帽的25%；如果達(dá)到特定標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，指定新秀和老將的資金可以占到工資帽的30%；達(dá)到特定標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的超級巨星可以選擇指定老將續(xù)約條款，也就是所謂"超級頂薪"。他們可以占據(jù)工資帽的35%，但只有選下了這名球員的球隊才能開出這種合同。后兩者與之前勞資協(xié)議的規(guī)定類似，而超級頂薪則是全新的創(chuàng)造。

But the new menu of max offerings isnt exactly working as intended. The whole point of these changes， from the owners POV， was to help teams keep star players by giving them greater financial incentive to stay， thus preventing another scenario like Durant going to the Warriors. But totally deserving candidates， like Paul George and Gordon Hayward， didnt meet the qualifications for the supermax； George wouldve wanted out anyway， and Hayward walked even with Utah offering an extra year of financial security. The Kings didnt want to pay Cousins more than $200 million， so they traded him. And Griffin， at "only" 30 percent of the cap， was an injury and financial risk the Clippers werent willing to take.

但新的頂薪條款并沒有產(chǎn)生人們預(yù)期的效果。站在球隊老板的角度，這些改變的目標(biāo)是通過提供更多的留隊經(jīng)濟激勵幫助球隊留下明星球員，避免出現(xiàn)杜蘭特加入勇士的情況。但是，那些完全配得上大合同的候選者，比如保羅·喬治和戈登·海沃德卻不符合超級頂薪的條件。喬治無論如何也要離開印第安納，而爵士即便能提供多一年的經(jīng)濟保障也沒能留住海沃德。國王不愿意給考辛斯開出超過2億美元的薪水，而是選擇了交易。而格里芬，盡管“只占空間的30%”，卻成了快船不愿冒險的傷病和經(jīng)濟負(fù)擔(dān)。

THIS SUMMER COULD END UP SETTING A NEW PRECEDENT FOR WHAT A PLAYER IS WORTH—THOUGH IT MAY ONLY BE TEMPORARY. WE MIGHT BE RIGHT BACK WHERE WE STARTED ONCE ALL THE BAD CONTRACTS ARE OFF THE BOOKS AND TEAMS HAVE NEW CAP SPACE TO BURN. THATS WHEN WELL LEARN WHICH FRANCHISES HAVE LEARNED FROM THEIR MISTAKES， AND WHICH ARE STUCK IN A NEVER-ENDING CYCLE OF BAD DECISIONS.

今年夏天，球員的價值可能出現(xiàn)全新先例——盡管這種現(xiàn)象可能只是暫時的。一旦爛合同到期，球隊又有大筆空間可用，我們也許就會回到原點。那時候我們就會知道，哪些球隊從錯誤中吸取了教訓(xùn)，哪些再次陷入糟糕決定的無限循環(huán)。

Players can earn way more money than ever before from the team that drafted them. But that doesnt mean owners will want to spend it， nor that players will want to take it. The biggest issue， however， is that signing such deals has made it it tremendously difficult to build a title-contending team around that player.

球員可以從選下自己的球隊那里掙到過去從未有過的高薪。但這并不等于球隊老板愿意掏錢，也不意味著球員愿意接受?？勺畲蟮膯栴}在于，簽下這種合同會讓圍繞這名球員搭建爭冠球隊變得無比困難。

Griffins situation is the perfect example. Multiple front-office executives told me that though the Griffin blockbuster sent shockwaves through the NBA， Clippers consultant Jerry West was ready to reconfigure the roster back in the summer once he knew Paul was a goner. Steve Ballmer just wasnt ready to pull the plug. But even after the Clippers made several notable hires in the front office， West has the owners ear. As time passed and Griffin got injured again， Ballmer came to agree with West that paying an injury-prone player $171 million over five years， including $39 million when hes 32， wasnt in their best interest.

格里芬的情況就是最好的例子。多名高管告訴我，盡管格里芬的大交易震驚了聯(lián)盟，但夏天得知保羅一定會離開后，快船顧問杰里·韋斯特就做好了重新調(diào)配陣容的準(zhǔn)備。只是斯蒂夫·鮑默還沒下定決心。即便快船聘請了多名高管，但韋斯特的意見仍然能直達(dá)老板。隨著時間推移，格里芬再次受傷，鮑默最終同意韋斯特的意見，也就是說，給一個容易受傷的球員五年1.71億美元，而且在他32歲時要支付3900萬美元的年薪，這對球隊沒有好處。

So they made the smart decision， dealt Griffin， and are in the process of exploring other moves to clear a path for a new direction， such as trading center DeAndre Jordan rather than resigning him. A big-market team took a long view and opted to create asset and financial flexibility， while a mid-market team thought short-term and took an enormous risk. Even Pistons coach Stan Van Gundy noted the dangers of acquiring the injury-prone four-time All-NBA player， but he has to gamble to make the playoffs and put butts in the empty seats at Detroits new downtown arena.

他們做出了聰明的選擇呃，交易了格里芬，目前正在探討確定球隊新方向的其他選擇，比如交易中鋒德安德烈·喬丹，而不是和他續(xù)約。一支大市場球隊從長遠(yuǎn)打算，選擇創(chuàng)造資產(chǎn)和財政靈活度，中等市場球隊從短期考慮，接下了一個巨大的風(fēng)險。連活塞主教練斯坦·范甘迪都注意到了交易容易受傷的四屆全明星球員的風(fēng)險，但他必須為球隊進入季后賽，為了讓活塞位于市中心的新球館坐滿觀眾而做出賭博。

The Wizards may encounter a similar issue with John Wall， who will make $169 million over four years starting in 2019-20， including a whopping $46.9 million when hes 31 years old. Wall， despite his obvious talent， has already missed two extended periods this season because of an injured left knee this season and is a lowefficiency half-court scorer whose success relies heavily on his athleticism.

奇才在約翰·沃爾這里可能面臨相似的問題，從2019-20賽季起，他會拿到四年1.69億美元的合同，31歲時他的合同金額達(dá)到驚人的4690萬美元。盡管擁有出眾的天賦，但本賽季由于左膝受傷，他已經(jīng)兩次長時間休戰(zhàn)，而且沃爾是一名低效的半場得分手，他的成功主要依賴個人運動能力。

Even if he never misses a game， Wall could take up so much cap that the Wizards will have little to no flexibility to make other transactions. With the supermax offer on the table early last offseason， Wall remarked that the team was"one piece away，" essentially calling for the team to replace Otto Porter Jr. with Paul George. Easier said than done. Past mistakes， like signing Ian Mahinmi for $64 million， led to a lack of financial flexibility. The Nets signed Porter to a max-contract offer sheet and the Wizards had no other option but to sign it， just as they did when it came to inking Wall to the supermax.

即便一場比賽也不休息，沃爾仍然會占據(jù)大量薪金空間，導(dǎo)致奇才沒有機會進行其他操作。去年休賽季初，面對擺在桌上的超級頂薪，沃爾提出球隊“只差一塊拼圖”，實際上就是呼吁球隊將小奧圖·波特?fù)Q成保羅·喬治。說得容易，做起來難。過去的錯誤，比如用6400萬美元簽下伊安·馬辛米，導(dǎo)致奇才缺乏操作的靈活性?；@網(wǎng)為波特開出了一份頂薪報價，奇才別無選擇，只能匹配，正如他們用超級頂薪簽約沃爾一樣。

Walls new deal doesnt even kick in until the 2019-20 season. But adding capable role players or another star will be problematic when his contract continues to rise by at least 7 percent each season as the cap continues to level off.

沃爾的新合同直到2019-20賽季才會生效。但是，當(dāng)工資帽保持同等水平時，沃爾的合同每個賽季要提高7%，因此增加合格的角色球員或其他明星將會成為球隊的麻煩。

The lucrative new TV deals the NBA signed created a huge influx in cash， which meant more for player salaries. But the players voted against "smoothing" （i.e.， a steady climb in teams available cap space） in favor of one large spike. As a result， the cap took a historic jump， from $70 million in 2015-16 to $94.1 million in 2016-17. It has since leveled off. The cap this season is $99 million. Next season， its projected to rise to just$101 million.

NBA簽下誘人的新轉(zhuǎn)播協(xié)議帶來了大量資金，這對球員的收入影響更大。但球員投票反對“緩慢提升”（比如工資帽穩(wěn)步提升），選擇了大步跨越式提升。因此，工資帽出現(xiàn)了歷史性的飛躍，從2015-16賽季的7000萬美元提高到了2016-17賽季的9410萬美元。從那之后，工資帽基本維持在同一水準(zhǔn)。本賽季的工資帽為9900萬美元，下賽季預(yù)計只會提高到1.01億美元。

If Jason Smith and Jodie Meeks exercise their player options for next season， the Wizards will already be on the hook for $124.8 million. That puts them well over the projected cap and almost$2 million into the luxury tax before they fill out the back end of their roster. The tax has become the silent killer in the NBA， and not just for teams still trying to build a winner. It significantly limited the Heats ability to retool at the end of the Big Three era， and its doing the same to the Cavaliers. Maybe someday itll be the undoing of the Warriors. And those teams won titles. If an owner is paying a huge tax bill for a roster that cant escape the second round of the playoffs， theres even more reason to explore other options.

如果杰森·史密斯和約迪·米克斯執(zhí)行下賽季的球員選項，奇才的薪金總額將達(dá)到1.248億美元。這個數(shù)字遠(yuǎn)高于工資帽，而且在填滿陣容前就超過了奢侈稅線200萬美元。奢侈稅已經(jīng)成為NBA里的沉默殺手，深受其害的不止是那些試圖搭建爭冠陣容的球隊。這嚴(yán)重影響到了“三巨頭”時代終結(jié)后熱火的重建能力，騎士也遇到了類似問題。也許有一天，勇士也會受到影響。未來贏得總冠軍的球隊也不例外。如果老板正在為一個無法突破季后賽第二輪的陣容支付巨額奢侈稅，他就更有理由研究其他選擇了。

The growing concern over max deals has created a ripple effect heading into the trade deadline. Execs and agents I spoke to believe it explains the rise in trade chatter involving stars. Teams are more regularly gauging the value of their own centerpieces， and other teams are making more calls knowing theyll listen. Its why were hearing reports about Aaron Gordon and Kemba Walker being available.

對頂薪日益加重的擔(dān)憂，在臨近交易截止日起到了連鎖反應(yīng)。和我交流的高管及經(jīng)紀(jì)人相信，這是涉及球星交易流言增多的原因。球隊開始越來越多地評估自身核心球員的價值，其他球隊也會更多地咨詢，因為他們知道對方愿意傾聽。這就是我們聽到有關(guān)阿隆·戈登和肯巴·沃克被擺上貨架消息的原因。

With few teams expected to have cap room， players will have less leverage to demand bigmoney deals. As one exec put it to me： Whereas recent deals looked like massive overpays， contracts this summer will look like bargains. If teams are smart and only the truly special players are given max money， then theres an opportunity to recalibrate what players are worth.

由于只有為數(shù)不多的球隊擁有薪金空間，球員要求大合同的籌碼就會變少。一名高管告訴我：盡管最近的簽約看上去溢價過多，但今年夏天會出現(xiàn)性價比高的合同。如果球隊足夠聰明，只有真正特別的球員能夠得到頂薪，那么聯(lián)盟就有機會重新校正球員的價值。

That could mean a reckoning for the uppermiddle-class contract， like the $17 million annually the Magic are shelling out to both Biyombo and Evan Fournier， because theres simply not a lot of free cap space to spend on them. To sign players of this quality， teams might instead use the non-taxpayer midlevel exception， which is currently worth $8.4 million and will near $10 million in the coming years. Or theyll re-sign such players using Bird rights.

這可能意味著對高中產(chǎn)合同的重新調(diào)整，比如魔術(shù)送給比永博和埃文·弗尼埃爾的1700萬美元，因為球隊沒有足夠空間用在他們身上。想簽下這類球員，球隊可能會使用中產(chǎn)特例，目前價值840萬美元，下一賽季為1000萬美元。也許他們會使用伯德權(quán)與這些球員續(xù)約。

This summer could end up setting a new precedent for what a player is worth—though it may only be temporary. We might be right back where we started once all the bad contracts are off the books and teams have new cap space to burn. Thats when well learn which franchises have learned from their mistakes， and which are stuck in a never-ending cycle of bad decisions.

今年夏天，球員的價值可能出現(xiàn)全新先例——盡管這種現(xiàn)象可能只是暫時的。一旦爛合同到期，球隊又有大筆空間可用，我們也許就會回到原點。那時候我們就會知道，哪些球隊從錯誤中吸取了教訓(xùn)，哪些再次陷入糟糕決定的無限循環(huán)。