REGIONAL TURMOIL AND MAJOR COUNTRY COMPETITION AND COOPERATION-MAIN FEATURES OF 2017 INTERNATIONAL SECURITY SITUATION

TANG YONGSHENG

Professor, School of National Security, National Defense University

The development of international military situation in 2017 has been consistent with that of the past few years. While the overall situation is stable, there has been frequent regional turmoil with traditional and nontraditional security risks intertwined,and rising uncertainties in international security. The evolvement is closely associated with the profound changes in international system and greatly affects the global landscape. In such a turbulent period, strategic stability is still taking hold in major country relations as the strategic balance is maintained and effective instead of deviating from the right path. The coexistence of competition and cooperation still constitutes the characteristic of major country relations of the times. In fact, in a changing world, the international situation can be more dangerous and even losing control without stable major country relations.

The military competition of major countries is getting more intense yet restrained.

In a changing world, significant changes are brewing up in the status of major countries in the international system and give rise to aggravated strategic concern and military competition.In face of the changed situation, no one dares to slacken for fear that they may lose initiative to the others. Many countries continue to increase investment in military security with high military expenditure. In making strategic adjustment, major countries focus more on meeting challenges in traditional security areas and guarding against strategic competition and potential conflict of major countries. The first national security report issued by President Trump’s administration explicitly listed Russia and China as the US’s rivals in that the“two revisionist powers” are seeking to challenge its influence, value and wealth. In engaging in military competition, major military powers such as the US and Russia put great emphasis on efficiency and have built highly-intensive,well-qualified and more formidable power systems.

Nonetheless, major countries can deepen cooperation according to common interest, exercise restraint and refrain from engaging in military confrontation. Therefore, the international security situation has remained stable.The US and Russia are still involved in geopolitical game in Eastern Europe,the Middle East, North Africa and other regions. Although the US-Russia relations were seriously deteriorated by the Ukraine crisis, no war ever broke out between the two. US led the Western countries in inflicting sanctions on Russia in an all round way, but didn’t resort to intense military means. In 2017, bilat-eral relations between Russia and the US began to thaw. On Nov. 11th, the two countries both released declarations stating that President Putin and Trump reached an agreement on the Syrian issue. The two countries will keep up communication and exchanges to ensure the safety of their armed forces on the ground in Syria and prevent potential skirmishes in combating extremist groups.

China and the US continue to engage in diplomatic game in Northeast Asia,South China Sea, East China Sea and Taiwan Strait with frequent military friction. However, in areas of major concern, the two countries have exercised restraint to refrain from military confrontation. Since President Trump took office, the mutual visits of the top leadership signify improving bilateral relations and create favorable conditions for further military cooperation. On Nov. 29th, China and the US signed Joint Statement on Civil Signal Compatibility and Interoperability Between the Global Positioning System (GPS) and the BeiDou Navigation Satellite System (BDS), making the systems compatible and interoperable at the user level. It can be safely said that competition and cooperation are going neck to neck in US-China military relations.

China-Russia strategic partnership has been at the highest level in history.Military cooperation has deepened with the signing of a road map on military cooperation for 2017-2020, the joint military drill codenamed Joint Sea 2017, etc.Looking into the upcoming year, there is limited scope for further improvement of US-Russia relations. China-Russia military cooperation, is expected to strengthen given the military security pressure from the US, in particular, the technical progress and global network of its antimissile system.

The US President Trump and Russian President Putin hold a closed-door meeting on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in the German city of Hamburg on July.7,2017. They focus on regional situations in Syria, Ukraine and cyber security. According to the officials from the two sides, the US, Russia and Jordan have agreed on a ceasefire deal covering the southwestern part of Syria.Trump(R) and Putin shake hands in Hamburg.

Further developments emerge in the geostrategic game and military relations among great powers undergo major change.

The competition for geostrategic nodes in the Middle East, East Europe and East Asia remains the top priority of the strategic games among major countries and has shown further development. Relevant strategic forces have acted with constraint. For example, the geostrategic games concerning the Ukraine crisis and the South China Sea dispute tend to reach a certain degree of new geographical balance.

Since the Ukraine crisis, both Russia and the US have taken tit-for-tat measures, which stalled the Russia-US relations. Under the economic sanctions and the military blockade imposed by Western countries, Russia was once in a disadvantageous strategic position.Later, Putin sent troops to Syria to attack the “Islamic State” and used it as a catalyst to gradually break the strategic stalemate. In 2017, Russia took advantage of disagreements among NATO members, actively carried out strategic operations and broke the military blockade by the United States and Europe since the Ukraine crisis.The military operations against “Islamic State” terrorism won the moral support of the world and eliminated the negative impact brought about by the Ukraine crisis. In addition, Russia actively involved itself in Syria to strengthen its impact on the Middle East and North Africa.

As can be seen, the international military situation is undergoing major changes. NATO is conducting strategic contraction due to economic difficulties,social conflicts and discord of its members. Russia seized the opportunity and actively took military and diplomatic measures to reverse its strategically disadvantageous situation. However, the world’s military landscape has not been fundamentally changed. The military hegemony of the United States has not been shaken. NATO still takes the dominant position in the international military structure. Russia also faces many internal problems. It is expected that in the future both the United States and Russia will shift their focus to domestic economic development and the new strategic balance formed between the United States and Russia in 2017 may be kept for a long time.

With profound changes in the international system, the uncertainties on international security may rise.

At present, the structure of international forces and the system of international relations are undergoing major historic changes. The old and new international orders are in the process of alternation. Uncertainty has become salient. The frequent occurrence of crises and increasing security risks will become the norm. For example, there are growing international concerns over whether the game in Northeast Asia can develop within a more predictable and inclusive security framework so as to avoid major military conflicts and whether the chaos in the Middle East and Africa will bring greater proliferation threats to global stability.

Trump’s sudden recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel not only drew oppositions from Palestine, Egypt and Turkey, but touched off protests a few thousand kilometers away by Muslims in Indonesia and the Philippines.On December 22nd, the Turkish President called Putin, who clearly expressed his willingness to help the Palestinian build an independent nation. It is still uncertain as to whether this incident will trigger a worldwide religious antagonism or lead to a new round of war in the Middle East.

At present, we cannot rule out the possibility that the instability in certain countries or local turmoil may invite interference by major powers or even proxy wars. The achievement of the war against the “Islamic State” is undoubtedly enormous. However, the demise of the “Islamic State” in Syria and Iraq has also brought more uncertainty to world security. In Iraq and Syria, the threat of terrorism still exists. Furthermore, terrorist groups may infiltrate outwards or flee abroad to find shelter. In fact, when the “Islamic State” was flourishing, its Sinai branch had already infiltrated into Egypt; the South Asia branch had infiltrated into Afghanistan, Pakistan,Bangladesh and Indonesia where Muslim populations are large. If the international community fails to coordinate well, the failure of the “Islamic State”may give rise to the transformation or even expansion of terrorist forces.

Aimed at seizing the commanding height of military supremacy,major countries’ competition over military technology is significantly intensifying.

The United States implemented the third “offset strategy,” seeking the military superiority over other military powers. On September 18th, 2017, the defense authorization bill was passed by a wide margin in the Senate. The US defense budget for 2018 grew by 10% to a record high of $692bn. The United States tries to break the stable deterrence among nuclear states and step up study and deployment of the missile defense system.Consequently, all major countries are racing to enhance the capability of strategic weapons and develop anti-missile technology. On July 11th, 2017, the Pentagon announced the successful launch of intercontinental ballistic missile interception test in the United States.After an upgraded interceptor rocket was launched from the coast of California, it hit a simulated intercontinental ballistic missiles launched from the Marshall Islands over the Pacific Ocean.On September 24th, the US successfully launched NROL-42, a large-scale electronic reconnaissance satellite with functions of electronic signal monitoring and infrared optical monitoring of ballistic missiles in the northern hemisphere. Going head to head with the US,according to news in August, Russian military will test the S-500 air defense missile defense system under development in 2020. It is expected that S-500 will become the trump card of Russian aerospace defense. On September 12th,the first Russian SNLE successfully launched the “Bulava” ballistic missile.

In recent years, the space and field of international security continue to expand. The military competition in outer space has become more fierce in 2017. In modern warfare, aerospace dominance has become the core of the information dominance and an important means to acquire asymmetric advantages. Aerospace has already become an important strategic commanding height for major countries in the world. The cyber space has also increasingly become a hot-spot for military competition. Cyber space has become an important new area for military struggle, and the party with information dominance often can obtain overwhelming advantages. In this round of cyber space military competition led by the US, the US military remains at the forefront of the world. Unmanned equipment, artificial intelligence, laser weapons, quantum communications and other fields have also become the focus of military technology competition for major countries, according to a report of the US Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments(CSBA).

China’s status in the Asia-Pacific and international strategic structure is rising, but due to the inherent doubts of some countries, it still faces major challenges in solving security conundrum in its periphery.

The rising influence of China has continuously strengthened its role in security affairs. In general, goodneighborliness and friendly and mutually beneficial cooperation represent the main trend of the relations between the countries in the region and China.The regional environment of China is favorable on the whole and its own geographical advantages have gradually come to the fore. For example, the situation in the South China Sea has eased to a certain degree and there has not been any serious turbulence. Positive changes have taken place in China’s relations with the Philippines and Vietnam. Of course, the development has a lot to do with the strategic balance China and the United States have reached in the South China Sea. In the meantime,some countries still have doubts and worries about China. They pursue a strategy of major power balance, work with and even cozy up to major powers such as the United States and India to strengthen their military presence in the region and counterbalance China.This provides conditions for major countries to make secret plans around China, carry out strategic containment and exert pressure by hyping up regional disputes. The so-called “Indo-Pacific Strategy” can be regarded as the expansion of the US alliance system, and clearly as precautions against China.Therefore, China still faces major challenges in solving security conundrum in its periphery..

In fact, in recent years, China has made significant progress in its relations with many other countries in the world including closer economic and trade ties and unprecedented interaction. In particular, the region and neighboring countries have enjoyed tangible benefits from the rapid development of China and thus their dependence on China’s development has steadily risen. Even if some individual countries temporarily appear to alienate China or even confront China, efforts can be made to work out comprehensive plans to get them back on track. The problem is that China’s increasingly powerful comprehensive national strength and regional influence have yet to fully translate into a centripetal force toward China for countries in the region. It’s a major issue to be solved how to use national strength and regional influence more effectively to break the security dilemma in its periphery and rally solid security support in the surrounding areas.

Peace continues to be the mainstream in the world and the foundation of global strategic stability remains firm.

Despite turmoil and conflict everywhere, overall stability still can be maintained in the world. Although there may be many uncertainties in the international security situation, the foundation of global strategic stability remains firm.

Some basic factors are still in play and there are further developments that will help safeguard global strategic stability. First, the strategic stability of major powers, based on the balance of terror of thermonuclear weapons continues to play its role. Moreover, nonproliferation has become a common concern for major powers. Second,the new dual effect of security spaces and areas. International competition extends to such fields as cyberspace,outer space and deep sea. However,due to the special nature of these spaces and fields, it is also necessary to strengthen international cooperation and security governance. Third,the non-traditional security threats are complicated and severe. Without more extensive international cooperation, it is impossible to effectively deal with and resolve them. Fourth, new technological innovations provide important impetus for economic and social development, which brings forth an increase in interest that can be obtained mainly from the improvement of state governance. Fifth, transnational and cross-regional ties, which are hard to undermine and continue to strengthen,undoubtedly also lay restraints on serious imbalance in the relations among major powers.

Although the positive effect of global strategic stability in the process of international system transformation is irreplaceable, there have been some serious challenges. First, it is possible that the major countries may get a sense of disorientation and make hasty strategic moves in the context of international changes; second, the international system may cease to be effective in the process of transformation. The loss of control on some key nodes may trigger and magnify the abovementioned two tendencies. For example, there has been a huge security risk hidden in the development of the situation in the Middle East and a major crisis may also occur in the Korean Peninsula. It’s still a test on relevant countries how to make the situation in Northeast Asia predictable,which also stands for an important barometer for the international security situation.