尤瓦爾·赫拉利：未來預(yù)言家

By+Josh+Glancy+譯/郭宇

很多人腦海里都曾冒出過“人類為何能統(tǒng)治地球”“世界將變成什么樣”這樣的問題，但因?yàn)檫@些問題太過宏大，我們常常將之拋諸腦后，轉(zhuǎn)而關(guān)注衣食住行等現(xiàn)實(shí)問題?？墒怯幸粋€人，他始終孜孜不倦地到人類的歷史中去尋找答案，探尋生命的意義，思考人類的命運(yùn)，并對未來人類可能面臨的問題提出警告，他就是暢銷書《人類簡史》的作者尤瓦爾·赫拉利。

We are living through a new age of instability. The pace of our lives， the pace of change， the introduction of new technologies—augmented reality， virtual reality， wearable technology， artificial intelligence—is bewildering at best2）. To many it is deeply unsettling.

Power has shifted from traditional institutions to elaborate Silicon Valley campuses in north California. Googles inanimate algorithm has more impact on the success or failure of a modern business than any industrial strategy cooked up3） in Westminster. Some say this is just the beginning， that we are weaving4） unthinkingly towards the singularity5）， the moment when machines become more intelligent than us， with only a few tech visionaries having any sort of plan for where we might be headed.

These are the views of Yuval Noah Harari， the 40-year-old Israeli historian who has become something of a prophet when it comes to explaining our past and predicting our future. He is the seer loved by Silicon Valley who doesnt have a smartphone or use social media. The man who spends months at a time in silent meditation before emerging to write books that strike at the heart of the modern condition.

Hararis breakthrough book， Sapiens： A Brief History of Humankind， became an international bestseller in 2014， after spending three years at the top of the Israeli charts. Its a remarkable piece of work that explains how a middling6） primate7） from East Africa conquered the planet in just a few dozen millennia.

His basic theory states that it is our capacity for telling stories that has made us great. Chimpanzees， who share so much of our genetic data， cannot operate effectively in groups larger than 150. But Homo sapiens8） can. We use our language skills to create mutual myths—money， religion， nationhood—that bind us together and allow us to co-operate on a mass scale.

Sapiens was eventually bumped off the top of the Israeli bestseller charts by Hararis latest work， Homo Deus： A Brief History of Tomorrow. In it， he steps into the present， then the future， seeking to explain our current sense of instability and where our planets master species may be headed.

The success of Sapiens transformed Harari from an obscure academic specialising in crusader history into a world-famous intellectual. There have been TED talks， big-money publishing deals and invitations to speak at top universities and Google. Bill Gates praised his book and Mark Zuckerberg put it on his reading list.endprint

Readers of Sapiens will not be surprised to hear that he thinks our future looks fairly bleak.

“What is happening at the moment is that the narrative is collapsing，” he says. “Before 1991， there was the narrative of the Cold War. Then the Cold War ended and the new narrative was globalisation， liberal democracy and the need for everybody to adopt the breakthroughs of science and technology. This narrative ensures that gradually all nations will become like western Europe and America.”

However， there is a problem with this story， says Harari. “It just doesnt work. It works for some countries， for some people， but it doesnt work for a lot of countries， and even in the West its no longer working. What we are seeing is the collapse of the story， and when you dont have a story of what is happening in the world， there is insecurity， there is confusion.”

This is typical Harari—humans are nowhere without a good story. The other reason for our insecurity is， of course， technology， which is causing rapid， disorientating change that our creaking institutions simply cannot accommodate.

Harari is not the easiest company. I meet him twice to talk about his latest book， once for lunch and once for breakfast. His manner is clipped9）， self-contained and serious. Physically， he is small， skinny， almost shrunken. There is not a hint of the charismatic salesman typical of so many modish10） intellectuals.

Over three hours of conversation， I extract just one smile from him. He does have a sense of humour， but it is ever so dry. His accented English is superb—he translates his own books from Hebrew. He talks a bit like Henry Kissinger11）： thoughts emerge as fully formed paragraphs， without hesitation or pause for thought.

Six years ago， Harari was an unknown lecturer at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. As a junior academic， he got lumbered with12） one of the least popular courses to teach—world history. Harari loved it. His mind began seeing connections， joining up the dots of world history， carving a narrative through the vast mass of knowledge. He started writing a book.

What elevates Harari above many chroniclers of our age is his exceptional clarity and focus. He has always been an intense person. He was born near Haifa， in northern Israel； his father was an engineer and his mother an administrator—neither were scholars. He was always interested in “the big questions，” but he believes that it was taking up meditation that gave him the rare ability to tell a grand story without digression13）， waffle14） or tangent15）.endprint

Between environmental disasters， robot takeovers and political decay， lunch with Harari can be a bit of a downer16）. He says hes not a pessimist， instead seeing his work as a “corrective” to the optimism of the tech utopians. But undoubtedly he takes a darker view than most.

He doesnt fit the Israeli male stereotype—loud， ebullient17）， difficult—but there is something in his bluntness and in his unsparing18） views that is characteristic of those who have grown up in a tough country where there is little patience for circumlocution19）. “When you grow up in Israel and the Middle East you always feel insecure，” he says. “Insecurity is kind of your comfort zone.”

Thinking things through is what Harari says most of us today are not doing enough of. Instead of planning for an uncertain future， we are “stuck in the comfort zone” of 20th-century discussions， simply because that is what we understand.

The only people with the faintest idea what is going on are in Silicon Valley， which is where he believes the religions of tomorrow are developing.

“Im interested in the visions， in the ideology and the mythology that these people are creating. I think many of them are quite naive， because they have no background in philosophy and history， so you get the kind of visions that you expect engineers to produce. But I dont think they are evil. It is very good that they are taking what they are doing seriously and trying to think creatively about the future. The problem is that they are not balanced by other people， other leaders， who offer alternative visions.”

Data， privacy， job automation and a basic income， the ethics of artificial intelligence， how technology can help the environment and the poor： These are the kinds of issues that Harari thinks should be dominating our politics. Much power has been transferred to big tech， yet still we rail at20） the old elites. Why？

“Partly because most people dont realise what is happening，” he says. “They are very happy to have their iPhones and to have email and to have access everywhere， all the time. They dont see that they are really giving away their most important possession， which is their data.”

“In the same way that in the early modern period you had the European imperialists coming to Africa and buying entire countries for a few beads， now we give away our most important possession， our data， to Google and Facebook in return for funny cat videos. People dont realise whats at stake.”endprint

The changes Harari outlines， and our failure to adapt to the pace of them， could have some fairly terrifying consequences. He sees huge job loss due to automation as highly likely and “very scary，” resulting in the creation of a “useless class” comprising billions of people devoid of any economic or political value.

Harari identifies two ideological trends emerging from Silicon Valley. The first is “dataism”—the almost religious preeminence21） of information and algorithms that will eventually replace our human instincts when it comes to decision-making. The second he calls “techno-humanism.” He argues that todays liberal humanism is an extension of Jewish and Christian belief in the soul. These religions maintained that each soul was precious because it was created by God. Today， more of us believe that the soul was created by evolution， but still we value it as the most precious thing in the universe， hence our attachment to human rights. Techno-humanism extends this further. Such is our obsession with human life， we will do anything to sustain， lengthen and protect it.

Harari believes that this quest for immortality will lead us to upgrade ourselves biologically. The story we have told ourselves about our eternal souls could lead us to destroy humanity as we know it.

These upgrades currently exist in things like the US army helmets that use augmented reality to speed up decision-making. But much more is on the way. Nano robots may search our blood for pathogens22） to destroy. Human brains might be connected to the internet， able to call on its wealth of knowledge simply by thinking about it.

Harari points out that there is the possibility of great inequality built into all this. In a world where almost all jobs are automated， the elites will have little use for the masses. Biological upgrades will not be shared equally， potentially creating a “cognitive elite” that will view the rest of mankind with the same superiority that sapiens once reserved for Neanderthals23）.

Despite his technological doomsaying， Harari is not a determinist. He believes that technology may bring us good things too， such as wildly efficient renewable energy sources and the ability to use 3D-printing technology to make food. He also believes that we should take responsibility for our actions. “If people are concerned， then they should look at their lives and the decisions they are making； about merging with their smartphones and their computers， and transferring authority to computer algorithms.”endprint

If Harari is even half right about all of this， then our age of instability may just be beginning. But like all the best prophets， he is delivering his warning just in time for us to change our ways. “Its not something that will happen in thousands of years，” he says. “It is a timescale of decades， not millennia. If we want to do something about it， we should start thinking about it now. In 30 years it will be too late.”

我們正生活在一個不穩(wěn)定的新時代。即使從最樂觀的方面看，人們生活的節(jié)奏、變化的速度以及增強(qiáng)現(xiàn)實(shí)、虛擬現(xiàn)實(shí)、可穿戴技術(shù)、人工智能等新技術(shù)的引入都令人感到困惑。很多人為此深感不安。

權(quán)力已經(jīng)從傳統(tǒng)機(jī)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)移到了加州北部硅谷地區(qū)各公司精心設(shè)計(jì)的園區(qū)。谷歌公司開發(fā)的無生命的算法比英國政府策劃的任何工業(yè)戰(zhàn)略都更能影響一家現(xiàn)代企業(yè)的成敗。有些人說這只是一個開始，人類正在不假思索地朝著機(jī)器比人類更加智能的那個時刻——“奇點(diǎn)”——迂回前進(jìn)，至于我們將去往何方，只有技術(shù)領(lǐng)域少數(shù)有遠(yuǎn)見卓識的人對此有所規(guī)劃。

這些正是尤瓦爾·諾亞·赫拉利的觀點(diǎn)。要論解釋人類的過去以及預(yù)測人類的未來，這位40歲（編注：英文原文發(fā)表于2016年8月）的以色列歷史學(xué)家已經(jīng)成了一名先知。他是硅谷的寵兒，一位沒有智能手機(jī)、不使用社交媒體的預(yù)言家。赫拉利曾連續(xù)數(shù)月靜思冥想，然后出山寫了一本直擊現(xiàn)代社會要害的書。

赫拉利的突破性著作《人類簡史》在2014年登上了國際暢銷書榜，此前三年，該書一直高居以色列暢銷書榜首位。這是一部非凡的作品，解釋了人類這種平凡的靈長目動物如何在十幾萬年的時間里走出東部非洲，征服了這個星球。

赫拉利的基本理論是，人類之所以偉大，是因?yàn)槲覀兙哂兄v故事的能力。黑猩猩的遺傳數(shù)據(jù)與人類非常相似，可它們無法有效維持超過150只的群體。但是智人則可以。我們使用語言技能來創(chuàng)造共有的神話——金錢、宗教和國家。這些神話將人類聯(lián)系在一起，使人們能夠大規(guī)模合作。

《人類簡史》最終被擠下了以色列暢銷書榜首位，取而代之的是赫拉利的新作《未來簡史》。在這本書中，赫拉利從當(dāng)代落筆，然后寫到了未來，試圖解釋人類當(dāng)前的不穩(wěn)定感以及未來可能的走向。

《人類簡史》的成功將赫拉利從一位專攻十字軍歷史研究的名不見經(jīng)傳的學(xué)者轉(zhuǎn)變成世界知名的知識分子。他在TED大會上進(jìn)行演講，簽訂高額的著作出版合同，并受邀在頂尖大學(xué)和谷歌公司發(fā)表演說。他的書受到了比爾·蓋茨的稱贊，并被馬克·扎克伯格列入自己的閱讀書單。

赫拉利認(rèn)為人類的未來看上去相當(dāng)凄慘，對于那些讀過《人類簡史》的讀者們來說，這并不令人驚訝。

“目前正在發(fā)生的是，敘事正在瓦解，”他說，“1991年以前的敘事是冷戰(zhàn)。冷戰(zhàn)結(jié)束，新的敘事變成了全球化、自由民主以及每個人都需要接受科技突破。在這種敘事下，所有國家都將逐漸變成類似西歐和美國這樣的國家。”

然而，赫拉利認(rèn)為這個故事存在問題?！斑@根本行不通。它適用于一些國家、一些民族，但對很多國家來說，這種敘事并不奏效，即使在西方世界也不再靈驗(yàn)。我們看到的是故事的塌陷，當(dāng)人們沒有故事來講述世界正在發(fā)生的事情時，不安全感和困惑就產(chǎn)生了?！?/p>

這是典型的赫拉利式思想——沒有一個好的故事，人類將無路可走。人類不安全感的另一個原因自然是技術(shù)。技術(shù)進(jìn)步正在導(dǎo)致迅速的變化，使人們迷失方向，我們決策遲緩的各種機(jī)構(gòu)根本無法適應(yīng)。

與赫拉利相處并不容易。我和他見過兩次面，談?wù)撍男聲淮纬晕顼?，一次吃早餐。他言語簡練，嚴(yán)肅又認(rèn)真。他外表又矮又瘦，幾乎可用“干癟”來形容，完全不符合時下許多時髦知識分子那種“有魅力的推銷員”的形象。

超過三個小時的談話中，我只從他那兒索取到一個微笑。他確實(shí)有幽默感，但領(lǐng)會起來實(shí)在不易。他的英語略帶口音，但水平極高——他把自己的書從希伯來文翻譯成英文。他說話有點(diǎn)像亨利·基辛格：想法呈現(xiàn)為完整的段落，沒有猶豫，也不用停下來思考。

六年前，赫拉利還是耶路撒冷希伯來大學(xué)一位不知名的講師。作為資歷尚淺的學(xué)者，他不得不承擔(dān)最不受歡迎的課程之一——世界史。但赫拉利喜歡這門課。他逐漸看到了事物之間的聯(lián)系，他把世界歷史的分散事件連接起來，利用廣泛的知識形成敘事。然后他開始寫書。

赫拉利超越了我們這個時代很多編年史作家，因?yàn)樗挠^點(diǎn)特別清晰且專注。赫拉利是一個一貫認(rèn)真的人。他出生于以色列北部城市海法附近。父親是一名工程師，母親是一名管理人員，兩人都不是學(xué)者。他總是對“大問題”感興趣，但他認(rèn)為是冥想給了他罕見的能力，使他能夠描述宏大的故事，既不跑題，也不會含糊其辭或筆鋒突變。

與赫拉利共進(jìn)午餐有點(diǎn)令人沮喪，我們的談話圍繞著環(huán)境災(zāi)難、機(jī)器人接管和政治衰退展開。他說自己不是一個悲觀主義者，而是將自己的工作視為對技術(shù)空想家盲目樂觀的“糾正”。但無疑，他比大多數(shù)人的看法更悲觀。

他并不符合以色列男性喧嘩、興高采烈、難以相處的固有形象，但他的率直和不加掩飾的個人觀點(diǎn)正是那些在艱苦國家長大的人的特點(diǎn)，在那里沒有人容忍委婉的說辭?！叭绻阍谝陨泻椭袞|地區(qū)長大，你總是感覺不安全，”他說，“不安全有點(diǎn)像是你的舒適區(qū)?！?/p>

赫拉利認(rèn)為，我們今天的大部分人都缺乏足夠透徹的思考。我們沒有對不確定的未來進(jìn)行規(guī)劃，而是“陷入”20世紀(jì)各種討論的“舒適區(qū)”中，僅僅是因?yàn)槲覀冎荒芾斫膺@些。endprint

唯一一群對當(dāng)下所發(fā)生的變化略有思考的人們身處硅谷，因此赫拉利認(rèn)為那里才是未來宗教正在形成的地方。

“我對這些人正在創(chuàng)造的愿景、思想觀念和神話感興趣。我認(rèn)為他們中的很多人非常天真，因?yàn)樗麄儧]有哲學(xué)和歷史學(xué)的背景，所以你得到的都是一些工程師想象出的愿景。但我不認(rèn)為他們本意是惡的。他們認(rèn)真對待正在做的事情，并嘗試創(chuàng)造性地思考未來，這是非常好的。問題是他們沒有被提出替代愿景的其他人、其他領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者加以均衡?！?/p>

數(shù)據(jù)、隱私、工作自動化、基本收入、人工智能的倫理以及技術(shù)如何改善環(huán)境并幫助窮人——這些才是赫拉利認(rèn)為應(yīng)該主導(dǎo)我們政治的問題。大量的權(quán)力已經(jīng)轉(zhuǎn)移到科技大佬手里，而我們?nèi)匀辉诒г鼓切﹤鹘y(tǒng)精英階層，為什么？

“部分原因是因?yàn)榇蠖鄶?shù)人都沒有意識到正在發(fā)生的事情，”他說，“他們非常高興擁有自己的iPhone、電子郵件，并能隨時隨地登錄互聯(lián)網(wǎng)。但他們沒有看到，他們正在放棄自己最重要的財(cái)產(chǎn)——自己的數(shù)據(jù)?！?/p>

“就像現(xiàn)代文明早期，歐洲帝國主義者來到非洲，用幾串珠子就能買下整個國家一樣，如今我們正把自己最重要的財(cái)產(chǎn)泄露給谷歌和Facebook，我們拿自身的數(shù)據(jù)來換取搞笑的貓咪視頻。人們沒有意識到其中的危險?！?/p>

赫拉利所概述的各種變化以及人們未能適應(yīng)變化的步伐這一事實(shí)，可能會引發(fā)一些相當(dāng)可怕的后果。他預(yù)測工作崗位將很可能因自動化生產(chǎn)而大量消失，這“非?？膳隆?，一個包含數(shù)十億人的“無用階層”將由此誕生，這些人沒有任何經(jīng)濟(jì)或政治價值。

赫拉利明確了硅谷正在形成的兩種意識形態(tài)趨勢。第一種是“數(shù)據(jù)主義”——信息和算法近乎宗教般的優(yōu)勢終將在決策階段取代我們的人類本能。第二種他稱之為“技術(shù)人道主義”。他認(rèn)為，今天的自由人文主義是延續(xù)猶太教和基督教對靈魂的信仰。這兩種宗教認(rèn)為每個靈魂都是寶貴的，因?yàn)槭怯缮系蹌?chuàng)造的。如今，我們更多地認(rèn)為人是通過進(jìn)化演變而來的，但我們?nèi)匀徽J(rèn)為人是宇宙中最珍貴的，因此我們追求人權(quán)。技術(shù)人文主義對此加以發(fā)揚(yáng)光大。這是我們對人類生命擺脫不了的情感，我們會做任何事情來維持、延長和保護(hù)它。

赫拉利認(rèn)為，對永生的不懈追求將引導(dǎo)人類在生物層面自我升級。人類為自身編織的靈魂永生的故事可能會導(dǎo)致我們毀掉現(xiàn)有的人類。

這些升級目前已經(jīng)存在，例如美國陸軍研發(fā)的頭盔使用了增強(qiáng)現(xiàn)實(shí)技術(shù)來加快決策。但還有更多的技術(shù)正在研發(fā)之中。納米機(jī)器人可以搜尋我們血液中的病原體并加以破壞。人類的大腦可能會連接到互聯(lián)網(wǎng)，屆時人們只需通過思考就能夠訪問互聯(lián)網(wǎng)的知識寶庫。

赫拉利指出，所有這一切有可能引發(fā)巨大的不平等。在幾乎所有工作都自動化的世界里，普通民眾將對精英階層毫無用處。生物升級將不會平等分享，人類有可能創(chuàng)造出一個“認(rèn)知精英”階層，他們看待其他人就像智人曾經(jīng)看待尼安德特人那樣，充滿優(yōu)越感。

盡管赫拉利給出了技術(shù)上的末世預(yù)言，但他并不是一名決定論者。他認(rèn)為技術(shù)也能給我們帶來美好的東西，如高效的可再生能源以及使用3D打印技術(shù)制作食物的能力。他還認(rèn)為，人類應(yīng)該對自身的行為負(fù)責(zé)?！叭绻藗儞?dān)心，那么他們應(yīng)該關(guān)注自己的生活和正在做的決定，包括與智能手機(jī)和電腦融為一體，以及將權(quán)力轉(zhuǎn)移給計(jì)算機(jī)算法?！?/p>

即使赫拉利所預(yù)測的一切只有一半是準(zhǔn)確的，那就說明我們的不穩(wěn)定時代可能才剛剛開始。但是，像所有最好的先知一樣，他正在及時發(fā)出警告，讓我們改變生活方式?！白兓皇乔暌院蟛虐l(fā)生，”他說，“這是幾十年內(nèi)的事，不是千年后的事。如果我們想做一些事情，我們現(xiàn)在就應(yīng)該開始思考。30年后就太遲了?！?/p>

1.seer [s??（r）] n. 預(yù)言家

2.at best：就最樂觀的一方面看

3.cook up：策劃，謀劃

4.weave [wi?v] vi. 迂回曲折行進(jìn)

5.the singularity：“奇點(diǎn)”，即人工智能會發(fā)展到某個關(guān)鍵的轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)，屆時將完全超越人類智能。

6.middling [?m?d（?）l??] adj. 中等的

7.primate [?pra?me?t] n. 靈長目動物

8.Homo sapiens：人類；智人

9.clipped [kl?pt] adj. （語言風(fēng)格）簡潔明快的

10.modish [?m??d??] adj. 流行的；時髦的

11.Henry Kissinger：即亨利·阿爾弗雷德·基辛格（Henry Alfred Kissinger， 1923～），美國著名外交家、國際問題專家，美國前國務(wù)卿。

12.get lumbered with：為……拖累

13.digression [da??ɡre?（?）n] n. 離題

14.waffle [?w?f（?）l] n. 胡扯；空談；含糊其辭

15.tangent [?t?nd?（?）nt] n. 突兀的轉(zhuǎn)向；離題

16.downer [?da?n?（r）] n. 令人沮喪的經(jīng)歷

17.ebullient [??b?li?nt] adj. 興高采烈的

18.unsparing [?n?spe?r??] adj. 不避諱的，不隱藏的

19.circumlocution [?s??（r）k?ml??kju??（?）n] n. （尤指對不好的事情的）迂回曲折的說法endprint