SEC油氣證實(shí)儲(chǔ)量評(píng)估結(jié)果合理性檢驗(yàn)方法

黃學(xué)斌

(中國(guó)石化 石油勘探開發(fā)研究院，北京 100083)

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SEC油氣證實(shí)儲(chǔ)量評(píng)估結(jié)果合理性檢驗(yàn)方法

黃學(xué)斌

(中國(guó)石化 石油勘探開發(fā)研究院，北京 100083)

儲(chǔ)量評(píng)估結(jié)果的合理確定性是SEC油氣儲(chǔ)量評(píng)估必須遵循的重要準(zhǔn)則?；谟蜌庾C實(shí)儲(chǔ)量的不確定性程度認(rèn)識(shí)，通過(guò)建立評(píng)估遞減與實(shí)際自然(綜合)遞減的轉(zhuǎn)換關(guān)系，提出了一種利用實(shí)際產(chǎn)量、遞減率與儲(chǔ)量評(píng)估結(jié)果進(jìn)行對(duì)比，從“點(diǎn)、線、面”多角度出發(fā)，檢驗(yàn)SEC油氣證實(shí)儲(chǔ)量評(píng)估結(jié)果合理性的方法。實(shí)際應(yīng)用表明，該方法可操作性強(qiáng)，應(yīng)用效果好，有利于儲(chǔ)量評(píng)估師通過(guò)結(jié)果對(duì)比分析不斷優(yōu)化儲(chǔ)量評(píng)估參數(shù)取值。

SEC；油氣證實(shí)儲(chǔ)量；儲(chǔ)量評(píng)估；儲(chǔ)量計(jì)算

盡管不同國(guó)家、不同學(xué)術(shù)團(tuán)體對(duì)于儲(chǔ)量的分類與定義的理解存在差異[1-15]，但是對(duì)儲(chǔ)量評(píng)估結(jié)果的認(rèn)識(shí)是一致的。受油氣藏的復(fù)雜程度、勘探開發(fā)程度、經(jīng)營(yíng)環(huán)境和評(píng)估人員的能力、素質(zhì)等多種因素的影響，存在不確定性[10]，也就是說(shuō)，儲(chǔ)量評(píng)估結(jié)果的合理性是相對(duì)的。因此，通過(guò)檢驗(yàn)SEC(Secucrities and Exchange Commission，美國(guó)證券委員會(huì))油氣儲(chǔ)量評(píng)估結(jié)果的合理性，發(fā)現(xiàn)問(wèn)題，不斷優(yōu)化評(píng)估參數(shù)，成為了提高儲(chǔ)量評(píng)估結(jié)果合理性的一項(xiàng)重要途徑。

1 SEC油氣儲(chǔ)量評(píng)估合理性檢驗(yàn)方法

按照證實(shí)儲(chǔ)量確定性的要求，實(shí)際采出量等于或超過(guò)評(píng)估的證實(shí)儲(chǔ)量的概率至少為90%[9-11]。國(guó)內(nèi)外對(duì)儲(chǔ)量評(píng)估合理性的把握主要著眼于評(píng)估階段[16-34]；國(guó)內(nèi)也有文獻(xiàn)[35-38]提及對(duì)儲(chǔ)量評(píng)估結(jié)果進(jìn)行分析, 但就如何實(shí)現(xiàn)，具體的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)如何把握，則很少論述。

具體來(lái)講，對(duì)證實(shí)儲(chǔ)量可以理解為，對(duì)同一時(shí)間的多個(gè)評(píng)估單元，至少有90%的評(píng)估單元其實(shí)際產(chǎn)量應(yīng)大于或等于評(píng)估儲(chǔ)量；或者同一評(píng)估單元經(jīng)過(guò)多年的評(píng)估后，至少在90%的時(shí)間范圍內(nèi)，實(shí)際產(chǎn)量大于或等于評(píng)估儲(chǔ)量。而對(duì)于某個(gè)時(shí)間點(diǎn)的某一評(píng)估單元，可以粗略地認(rèn)為，評(píng)估結(jié)果應(yīng)達(dá)到實(shí)際結(jié)果的90%～100%。如果評(píng)估結(jié)果超過(guò)實(shí)際結(jié)果，則高估的可能性較大；反之，如果評(píng)估結(jié)果達(dá)不到實(shí)際結(jié)果的90%，則低估的可能性較大。

結(jié)合上述理解，從儲(chǔ)量、產(chǎn)量構(gòu)成的對(duì)應(yīng)關(guān)系出發(fā)，采用評(píng)估儲(chǔ)量(評(píng)估日之后經(jīng)濟(jì)開采年限內(nèi)年產(chǎn)量之和)與實(shí)際年產(chǎn)量的對(duì)比、評(píng)估時(shí)采用的遞減率與實(shí)際自然或綜合遞減率的對(duì)比，以及多個(gè)評(píng)估單元或同一評(píng)估單元多年評(píng)估結(jié)果的綜合對(duì)比，從點(diǎn)(預(yù)測(cè)第一年時(shí)間節(jié)點(diǎn)年產(chǎn)量)、線(遞減率曲線)、面(多點(diǎn)/線對(duì)比結(jié)果形成平面圖)多角度，通過(guò)儲(chǔ)量評(píng)估結(jié)果與實(shí)際結(jié)果的吻合程度，檢驗(yàn)評(píng)估結(jié)果的合理性，為來(lái)年油氣儲(chǔ)量評(píng)估結(jié)果的優(yōu)化提供依據(jù)。

1.1 評(píng)估儲(chǔ)量與實(shí)際產(chǎn)量對(duì)比

按照SEC準(zhǔn)則，儲(chǔ)量是經(jīng)濟(jì)開采期內(nèi)的年產(chǎn)量之和。檢測(cè)儲(chǔ)量評(píng)估結(jié)果的合理性，一般只能用預(yù)測(cè)第一年的產(chǎn)量與實(shí)際年產(chǎn)量進(jìn)行對(duì)比，主要是由于評(píng)估單元很少采用單井，后續(xù)的年產(chǎn)量將因評(píng)估單元內(nèi)開發(fā)井?dāng)?shù)或開發(fā)條件的變化而不具可比性。

參照對(duì)證實(shí)儲(chǔ)量確定性要求的具體理解建立起來(lái)的檢驗(yàn)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，結(jié)合儲(chǔ)產(chǎn)量結(jié)構(gòu)的對(duì)應(yīng)關(guān)系，既可以將證實(shí)儲(chǔ)量與總產(chǎn)量進(jìn)行對(duì)比，也可以將已開發(fā)正生產(chǎn)儲(chǔ)量與老井產(chǎn)量、未生產(chǎn)與未開發(fā)儲(chǔ)量之和與新井產(chǎn)量進(jìn)行對(duì)比。

1.2 評(píng)估遞減率與實(shí)際自然和綜合遞減率對(duì)比

根據(jù)SEC準(zhǔn)則評(píng)估證實(shí)儲(chǔ)量時(shí)，由于井?dāng)?shù)多，評(píng)估單元往往是一個(gè)油氣藏或一個(gè)油氣田。國(guó)外儲(chǔ)量評(píng)估師選取評(píng)估遞減率，一般為該評(píng)估單元在近期井?dāng)?shù)和開發(fā)方式不變情況下的遞減率；當(dāng)井?dāng)?shù)發(fā)生變化時(shí)，也參考平均單井遞減率、歸一化單井遞減率、新、老井的遞減率以及結(jié)合新井增加單井可采儲(chǔ)量的預(yù)期效果綜合確定；即使井?dāng)?shù)不變，也有可能是關(guān)井和新投產(chǎn)井達(dá)到動(dòng)態(tài)平衡的一種巧合。實(shí)際上，評(píng)估單元的自然、綜合遞減就是在保持上年老井井?dāng)?shù)水平下獲得的，因此，采用評(píng)估遞減率與實(shí)際自然及綜合遞減率的對(duì)比，不失為一種較為有效的判別方法[39-42]。

實(shí)際上，由于評(píng)估遞減率與實(shí)際自然、綜合遞減率采用的遞減率，兩者不可直接進(jìn)行對(duì)比，必須進(jìn)行轉(zhuǎn)換。一般情況下，多采用指數(shù)遞減，下面以指數(shù)遞減為例介紹具體的轉(zhuǎn)換方法。

對(duì)于指數(shù)遞減，采用評(píng)估遞減率De定義為，對(duì)某一時(shí)期：

(1)

(2)

式中：q為t時(shí)間產(chǎn)量，體積或重量/單位時(shí)間；qi為計(jì)時(shí)起點(diǎn)產(chǎn)量，體積或重量/單位時(shí)間；De為評(píng)估遞減率；de為評(píng)估遞減余率。

用年實(shí)際遞減率與月實(shí)際遞減率的轉(zhuǎn)換公式即得到月遞減率，如下：

(3)

式中：Dey為年評(píng)估遞減率，1/年；Dem為月評(píng)估遞減率，1/月。

自然及綜合遞減采用的是另一種遞減率，其年遞減率為：

(4)

(5)

式中：∑t為一年內(nèi)的天數(shù)；qo為上年年底標(biāo)定日產(chǎn)量，體積或重量/日；Qi為老井自然或老井自然加措施年產(chǎn)量，體積或重量；Dcy為年自然或綜合遞減率(Qi為老井自然產(chǎn)量則為自然遞減，為自然加措施產(chǎn)量則為綜合遞減)；dcy為年自然或綜合遞減余率。

對(duì)于自然、綜合遞減率而言，在指數(shù)遞減情況下，其月遞減余率與年遞減余率的換算關(guān)系[42]是：

(6)

Dcm=1-dcm

(7)

式中：Dcm為月自然或綜合遞減率；dcm為月自然或綜合遞減余率。

將評(píng)估的年遞減轉(zhuǎn)換成月遞減與自然、綜合月實(shí)際遞減率進(jìn)行對(duì)比，即Dcm=Dem=Dm時(shí)，由此得出評(píng)估年遞減率與實(shí)際自然或綜合年遞減率的換算關(guān)系為：

(8)

式中：Dm為月遞減率。

按照公式(8)可以將評(píng)估年遞減率轉(zhuǎn)換成自然或綜合年遞減率概念下的實(shí)際年遞減率，并與自然和綜合年遞減率進(jìn)行對(duì)比。

一般而言，轉(zhuǎn)換得到的年遞減率與實(shí)際的自然和綜合遞減率進(jìn)行對(duì)比，如果大于自然遞減，則很可能低估；如果小于綜合遞減，則很可能高估；如果介于二者之間，這基本上可以判斷是合理的?？紤]到實(shí)際自然和綜合遞減率有一定的波動(dòng)性，對(duì)比時(shí)可允許10%的誤差，即匹配區(qū)間低限值取老井綜合遞減率的90%，高限值取老井自然遞減率的110%。同時(shí)，此處引入預(yù)測(cè)遞減率系數(shù)概念，以表征預(yù)測(cè)遞減率與兩個(gè)實(shí)際遞減率的關(guān)系，由此，我們?cè)O(shè)定一個(gè)判別系數(shù)如下：

(9)

式中：R為遞減率判別系數(shù)；D為由評(píng)估遞減率轉(zhuǎn)換的年遞減率；X為實(shí)際綜合遞減率；Y為實(shí)際自然遞減率。

判別系數(shù)處于0和1之間，即確定轉(zhuǎn)換年遞減率介于自然遞減率和綜合遞減率之間，則評(píng)估遞減率基本合理；如果判別系數(shù)小于0，即轉(zhuǎn)換的年遞減率較實(shí)際綜合遞減率還要小，則預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果很可能高估；如果判別系數(shù)大于1，即轉(zhuǎn)換的年遞減率比實(shí)際自然遞減還要大，則預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果很可能低估。

1.3 從多“點(diǎn)、線”結(jié)合到“面”的綜合判斷

一個(gè)油氣田分公司包括若干個(gè)評(píng)估單元，部分單元評(píng)估不合理，不代表整體不合理，在這里，還是要依據(jù)證實(shí)儲(chǔ)量的定義來(lái)綜合分析評(píng)價(jià)。具體包括以下幾個(gè)方面：

一是證實(shí)已開發(fā)正生產(chǎn)儲(chǔ)量評(píng)估結(jié)果合理性的判別。其一是油田級(jí)別預(yù)測(cè)老井產(chǎn)量與實(shí)際產(chǎn)量的對(duì)比；其二是油田級(jí)別預(yù)測(cè)年遞減率與實(shí)際自然和綜合遞減率的對(duì)比；其三是將多個(gè)評(píng)估單元預(yù)測(cè)的老井產(chǎn)量與實(shí)際產(chǎn)量放在圖上進(jìn)行對(duì)比，同時(shí)將多個(gè)評(píng)估單元預(yù)測(cè)的年遞減率與實(shí)際自然和綜合遞減率進(jìn)行對(duì)比，通過(guò)這種“點(diǎn)、線、面”結(jié)合的綜合對(duì)比判別評(píng)估結(jié)果的合理性。

二是證實(shí)已開發(fā)未生產(chǎn)及未開發(fā)儲(chǔ)量評(píng)估結(jié)果合理性的判別。其一是油田級(jí)別預(yù)測(cè)的未生產(chǎn)加未開發(fā)產(chǎn)量之和與新井產(chǎn)量的對(duì)比；其二是多個(gè)評(píng)估單元預(yù)測(cè)的新井產(chǎn)量(未生產(chǎn)與未開發(fā)的產(chǎn)量之和)與實(shí)際新井產(chǎn)量放在圖上進(jìn)行對(duì)比。

三是證實(shí)儲(chǔ)量評(píng)估結(jié)果合理性的總體判別。其一是油田級(jí)別預(yù)測(cè)年產(chǎn)量與實(shí)際產(chǎn)量的對(duì)比；其二是將多個(gè)評(píng)估單元預(yù)測(cè)的總產(chǎn)量與實(shí)際總產(chǎn)量放在圖上進(jìn)行對(duì)比；其三是將多個(gè)評(píng)估單元的遞減率判別系數(shù)和產(chǎn)量判別系數(shù)(預(yù)測(cè)年產(chǎn)量與實(shí)際年產(chǎn)量之比)放在圖上進(jìn)行對(duì)比，“點(diǎn)、線、面”結(jié)合對(duì)比判別。

2 應(yīng)用實(shí)例

A油田12個(gè)單元2012年預(yù)測(cè)油氣產(chǎn)量數(shù)據(jù)(預(yù)測(cè)2013年產(chǎn)量的數(shù)據(jù))和2013年實(shí)際油氣產(chǎn)量數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行對(duì)比(表1)。

從表1可知，從“點(diǎn)”的角度看，A油田預(yù)測(cè)油氣產(chǎn)量等于實(shí)際油氣產(chǎn)量的93.2%，油田預(yù)測(cè)油氣產(chǎn)量的數(shù)值合理，即A油田預(yù)測(cè)油氣產(chǎn)量處于油氣預(yù)設(shè)產(chǎn)量匹配區(qū)間范圍內(nèi)。油田預(yù)測(cè)油氣產(chǎn)量中的已開發(fā)正生產(chǎn)產(chǎn)量等于老井產(chǎn)量的97.4%，預(yù)測(cè)油氣產(chǎn)量中的已開發(fā)正生產(chǎn)產(chǎn)量基本合理，但預(yù)測(cè)油氣產(chǎn)量中的未生產(chǎn)+未開發(fā)產(chǎn)量?jī)H為新井產(chǎn)量的10.1%，預(yù)測(cè)油氣產(chǎn)量中的未生產(chǎn)+未開發(fā)產(chǎn)量相對(duì)低估。具體而言，A8和A9兩個(gè)評(píng)估單元的正生產(chǎn)儲(chǔ)量低估，而除A5和A10外，其他10個(gè)評(píng)估單元的未生產(chǎn)+未開發(fā)儲(chǔ)量均低估。

據(jù)表1數(shù)據(jù)，作出A油田中12個(gè)油氣單元的預(yù)測(cè)油氣產(chǎn)量與實(shí)際油氣產(chǎn)量的分布圖(圖1)。從“面”的角度看，A油田12個(gè)評(píng)估單元中，9個(gè)單元預(yù)測(cè)油氣產(chǎn)量的數(shù)值位于實(shí)際油氣產(chǎn)量的90%～100%之間(占所有單元的75%)，2個(gè)單元預(yù)測(cè)油氣產(chǎn)量低于實(shí)際油氣產(chǎn)量的90%，1個(gè)單元預(yù)測(cè)油氣產(chǎn)量稍高于實(shí)際油氣產(chǎn)量，則認(rèn)為油田整體的預(yù)測(cè)油氣產(chǎn)量基本合理，仍存在可以優(yōu)化的空間。

表1 A油田預(yù)測(cè)油氣產(chǎn)量和實(shí)際產(chǎn)量對(duì)比

圖1 A油田預(yù)測(cè)產(chǎn)量與實(shí)際產(chǎn)量分布

表2是遞減率判別系數(shù)和預(yù)測(cè)/實(shí)際產(chǎn)量比結(jié)果。圖2是本應(yīng)用實(shí)例的油田中油氣單元的遞減率判別系數(shù)與預(yù)測(cè)/實(shí)際產(chǎn)量比的分布圖。以下根據(jù)表2和圖2加以闡述。

表2 A油田遞減率判別系數(shù)和預(yù)測(cè)/實(shí)際產(chǎn)量比結(jié)果

圖2 A油田遞減率判別系數(shù)與預(yù)測(cè)/實(shí)際產(chǎn)量比分布

從“線”的角度看，A油田遞減率判別系數(shù)的數(shù)值為0.01，處于0和1之間，則確定油田預(yù)測(cè)油氣產(chǎn)量的評(píng)估遞減率處于遞減率的匹配區(qū)間范圍內(nèi)。

從“面”的角度看，A油田12個(gè)單元中，10個(gè)單元預(yù)測(cè)油氣產(chǎn)量與總產(chǎn)量之比在0.9～1之間，單元比例83%。從遞減率判別系數(shù)角度看，遞減率判別系數(shù)僅有6個(gè)單元在0～1之間，占所有單元的50%。真正產(chǎn)量判別系數(shù)與遞減率判別系數(shù)均合理的評(píng)估單元僅有5個(gè)，占單元比例的42%。因此，合理評(píng)估仍有一定的提升空間，同時(shí)對(duì)欠合理的評(píng)估單元要加強(qiáng)跟蹤分析、評(píng)價(jià)。

從總體評(píng)價(jià)看，由于A油田預(yù)測(cè)油氣產(chǎn)量處于油氣預(yù)設(shè)產(chǎn)量匹配區(qū)間范圍內(nèi)，且油田轉(zhuǎn)換后的評(píng)估遞減率處于遞減率的匹配區(qū)間范圍內(nèi)，因此確定油田預(yù)測(cè)油氣儲(chǔ)量總體合理。在2014年的儲(chǔ)量評(píng)估過(guò)程中，對(duì)誤差較大的單元的評(píng)估參數(shù)進(jìn)行了進(jìn)一步調(diào)整優(yōu)化。

在實(shí)際評(píng)估中，理想的情況是油田和所有單元預(yù)測(cè)油氣產(chǎn)量、正生產(chǎn)產(chǎn)量和未生產(chǎn)產(chǎn)量預(yù)測(cè)均合理。這種情況較難做到，要在盡可能保證油田預(yù)測(cè)油氣產(chǎn)量合理的情況下，合理選取分單元初始產(chǎn)量和評(píng)估遞減率等各項(xiàng)參數(shù)。對(duì)于預(yù)測(cè)油氣儲(chǔ)量不合理的單元，要結(jié)合開發(fā)實(shí)際分析不合理的主要原因，在下步工作中合理調(diào)整修正，使所有單元預(yù)測(cè)油氣產(chǎn)量和所有參數(shù)預(yù)測(cè)合理。

3 結(jié)論

(1)證實(shí)儲(chǔ)量評(píng)估結(jié)果受多種因素的影響，存在不確定性，通過(guò)開展儲(chǔ)量評(píng)估結(jié)果的合理性檢驗(yàn)，可為評(píng)估參數(shù)的優(yōu)化提供依據(jù)。

(2)評(píng)估采用的遞減率與實(shí)際自然、綜合遞減率進(jìn)行對(duì)比，可以為遞減率的優(yōu)化提供依據(jù)，但是由于二者的計(jì)算方法不一致，因此，在對(duì)比時(shí)應(yīng)進(jìn)行轉(zhuǎn)換。

(3)利用儲(chǔ)量狀態(tài)與產(chǎn)量之間的對(duì)應(yīng)關(guān)系，可從“點(diǎn)、線、面”3個(gè)方面檢驗(yàn)儲(chǔ)量評(píng)估結(jié)果的合理性：一是從“點(diǎn)”的角度，即單個(gè)評(píng)估單元或評(píng)估單元集合體預(yù)測(cè)的第一年產(chǎn)量和實(shí)際產(chǎn)量進(jìn)行對(duì)比；二是從“線”的角度，即單個(gè)評(píng)估單元或評(píng)估單元集合體的遞減率與自然和綜合遞減率進(jìn)行對(duì)比；三是從“面”的角度，將多個(gè)評(píng)估單元的預(yù)測(cè)年產(chǎn)量與實(shí)際產(chǎn)量、遞減率與自然和綜合遞減率以及遞減率判別系數(shù)和產(chǎn)量判別系數(shù)(預(yù)測(cè)年產(chǎn)量與實(shí)際年產(chǎn)量之比)放在圖上進(jìn)行綜合對(duì)比。

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(編輯 韓 彧)

Reasonableness assessment of SEC (Secucrities and Exchange Commission) reserves

Huang Xuebin

(SINOPECPetroleumExploration&ProductionResearchInstitute,Beijing100083,China)

Result certainty is very important for SEC reserve estimation. A useful method to check the reasonableness of SEC petroleum proven reserve estimation was proposed, based on the uncertainty degree of reserve estimation, through establishing the relationship between estimated decline rate and natural or composite decline rate. The method utilized the comparison of real production data and decline rate with reserve estimation from multi-angles. The evaluation method is effective in practical examination, and is useful for reserve appraisers to improve reserve estimation results.

SEC; petroleum reserve; reserve estimation; reserve calculation

1001-6112(2017)03-0431-06

10.11781/sysydz201703431

2016-11-23；

2017-03-15。

黃學(xué)斌(1966—)，男，碩士，高級(jí)工程師，從事油氣儲(chǔ)量評(píng)估研究。E-mail: huangxb.syky@sinopec.com。

中國(guó)石化油田勘探開發(fā)事業(yè)部先導(dǎo)項(xiàng)目“中國(guó)石化2014年度SEC油氣儲(chǔ)量自主評(píng)估”(G5800-14-ZS-YTB016)資助。

TE01

A