進口受限 出口受阻中國林產品國際貿易路在何方

□ 文/本刊記者 黎敏

Written by Li Min / Translated by Xu Zhiliang

進口受限 出口受阻中國林產品國際貿易路在何方

□ 文/本刊記者 黎敏

2016年12月2日，本刊記者從2016中國—東盟博覽會林木展系列活動——第六屆中國（南寧）林產品國際貿易論壇上了解到，中國林產品國際貿易在不斷發(fā)展的同時，正經歷著進口受限、出口受阻的發(fā)展陣痛，“轉型升級”成為諸多業(yè)內人士的共識。

進出不暢的貿易困局

從建材到家具，從竹藤到紙張，人們對這些林產品再熟悉不過，但是中國因為森林資源匱乏，所以許多林產品都是“進口貨”，中國林產品市場對進口產品的依存度也因此居高不下。原木、紙產品、紙漿、單板和鋸材是中國進口林產品的主要門類，而相關的進口貿易我們不難在中國與東盟國家的貿易中找到。

森林資源相對豐富的東盟國家一直都是中國林產品進口的重要來源地之一。數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2015年中國—東盟的林業(yè)貿易額達到了318億美元，其中中國從東盟各國的進口額達到200億美元。印尼、老撾、馬來西亞、緬甸、泰國、越南等都是中國非常重要的林產品貿易伙伴。但這種依賴進口的情況隨著“木材出口禁令潮”的掀起正面臨挑戰(zhàn)。截至目前，柬埔寨、老撾、緬甸、泰國、越南等中國在東盟的主要林產品貿易伙伴都頒布了木材出口禁令，這直接導致了木材，特別是原木價格的暴漲，進而影響到林產品國際貿易企業(yè)的原料進口、成本管理及產品出口環(huán)節(jié)。

“在2015年中國1400億美元的林產品進出口貿易額中，林產品進口額為647億美元，出口則為753億美元。”據(jù)中國林業(yè)局林產品國際貿易研究中心副主任陳勇介紹，中國的林產品國際貿易除了占據(jù)近半壁江山的進口，林產品出口也體量龐大。

過去，中國出口的林產品主要以經濟林產品等為主，在林產品工業(yè)發(fā)展的過程中，家具、紙、紙板等高附加值產品的出口量也有所增加。但出口的目的地仍然集中在亞洲、北美洲和歐洲，以日本、美國為代表的發(fā)達國家。高度集中的貿易輸出，為貿易摩擦埋下了隱患。

陳勇副主任說：“國際林產品貿易愈發(fā)注重環(huán)境保護，合法性貿易法規(guī)逐漸成為發(fā)達國家限制發(fā)展中國家貿易的手段，中國已經成為一些國家實施貿易保護主義的首要對象?！崩缟终J證、產銷監(jiān)管鏈認證，意味著林產品貿易從原木、加工到流通等各個生產環(huán)節(jié)都需要“有據(jù)可查”，但東盟國家等中國林產品主要的進口來源地，對于森林資源管理的法律與機制尚待健全，溯源難度大，無形中增加了中國出口產品認證的復雜性。

而受經濟危機影響，“逆全球化”升溫，導致國際上顯性或隱性的“綠色貿易壁壘”有增無減。除此之外，中國國內勞動力成本、環(huán)境成本的增加，部分林產品產能的富余，也使得中國林產品國際貿易難以再按原來的方式發(fā)展。北京林業(yè)大學經濟管理學院教授程寶棟認為，在這樣的背景之下，中國的林業(yè)產業(yè)需要轉型升級。

2016年第六屆中國（南寧）林產品國際貿易論壇

從“騰籠換鳥”到“鳳凰涅槃”

無論是為了應對日趨復雜的國際貿易形勢，還是解決國內成本與產能的問題，中國林業(yè)產業(yè)轉型升級的緊迫性與必要性已然成為業(yè)內共識。那么轉型升級該從哪兒破局呢？

令人欣喜的是，我們在市直單位連續(xù)五年時間“每年打造10家示范典型”的建家活動初見成效，涌現(xiàn)出市煤管局、市供銷社、市建設局、市職技院、市一中、市住房公積金管理中心等富有鮮明特色的示范單位。

“中國的林產品眼下主要還是出口歐美發(fā)達國家，但未來中美之間的貿易摩擦可能會進一步上升，這部分傳統(tǒng)市場不再被看好。不過，我們可以將目光轉向‘一帶一路’沿線的新興市場?！背虒殫澖淌谡f，“中國倡導的‘一帶一路’，沿線涉及65個國家和地區(qū)，東盟是其中一個重要的方向，隨著TPP（跨太平洋伙伴關系協(xié)定）的停滯，RCEP（區(qū)域全面經濟伙伴關系）、中國—東盟自貿區(qū)升級版將為中國—東盟包括林產品貿易在內的雙邊貿易帶來利好?！?/p>

“一帶一路”沿線多數(shù)國家的經濟發(fā)展水平還相對落后，有發(fā)展勞動密集型產業(yè)的優(yōu)勢，而這也給中國與其開展產能合作提供了空間。據(jù)悉，中國正計劃在東盟具備條件的國家開展森林資源開發(fā)利用合作，轉移和利用國內木材加工、林業(yè)機械制造等優(yōu)質產能，建成一批集森林資源采伐、加工、貿易與物流于一體的境外木材加工園區(qū)，在實現(xiàn)企業(yè)資源優(yōu)化配置的同時，為當?shù)貛ゼ夹g與就業(yè)機會。

“為了可持續(xù)地推動中國和緬甸的林業(yè)合作，我們正在與緬甸政府協(xié)商，計劃在緬甸建立（林業(yè)）境外合作區(qū)，并簽署相關合作協(xié)議，以規(guī)范雙方林產品加工貿易等。”陳勇副主任在接受本刊記者采訪時說，“隨著‘一帶一路’建設的穩(wěn)步推進，中國—東盟的林產品貿易有許多機遇點，但這需要政府、企業(yè)、協(xié)會間加強聯(lián)系與交流，已連續(xù)舉辦6屆的中國—東盟博覽會林木展，就是中國—東盟林業(yè)界交流溝通的一個很好的平臺?！?/p>

“東盟國家是‘一帶一路’上比較成熟的新興市場，市場潛力大，東盟國家的消費者對于木文化也比較推崇，因此無論是國際貿易出口，還是開展國際產能合作、到當?shù)赝顿Y設廠，企業(yè)選擇東盟國家，成功的可能性都更大。” 程寶棟教授在接受本刊記者采訪時說，“中國林產品企業(yè)‘走出去’，進行產業(yè)轉移，就像‘騰籠換鳥’，但這并不意味著中國就不發(fā)展林木產業(yè)了，而是要在技術研發(fā)、在品牌升級上下功夫，這就是我們說的‘鳳凰涅槃’，將‘大進大出’轉變?yōu)椤畠?yōu)進優(yōu)出’。但是品牌的建設并不是一蹴而就的，往往中國企業(yè)打造一個聞名于世的品牌并不容易，因此我們可以鼓勵中國企業(yè)去并購發(fā)達國家的品牌，這也是品牌升級的一種選擇?！?/p>

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The Way Out for Chinese Forest Products Stuck in the Dilemma of Import & Export Trade

Written by Li Min / Translated by Xu Zhiliang

China is a major country involved in the international trade in forest products, the total import-export volume of which increased from US$ 100 billion in 2010 to US$ 140 billion in 2015, growing at 7.5 percent annually, according to the statistics.

The 6thForest Products International Trade Forum, under CAEXPO Forest & Wood Products Exhibition 2016, was successfully held in Nanning on December 2, 2016, when experts and practitioners suggested that it is imperative to speed up the transformation and upgrading of international trade in forest products.

Impeded import & export trade

Over the years, most forest products in China are imported from the overseas markets like ASEAN countries, ranging from building materials to furniture and from bamboo & rattan to paper, due to the lack of forest resources. Now China is mainly importing log, paper products, paper pulp, veneer and converted timber from foreign countries.

ASEAN countries relatively abundant in forest resources remain a major source of China’s imported forest products. It is reported that the trade volume of China-ASEAN totaled US$ 31.8 billion in 2015, including US$ 20 billion produced by China’s import from ASEAN countries.

However, China’s major forest product trading partners in the ASEAN region, including Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam, have issued their respective timber export bans successively, leading to the rising price of timber, particularly the price of log, and adversely affecting the main links of enterprises specializing in forest products, such as raw-material import, cost management and product export.

“In 2015, the import & export trade volume of China in terms of forest products totaled US$ 140 billion: the total import was US$ 64.7 billion, and the total export US$ 75.3 billion,” said Mr. Chen Yong, deputy director of the Forest Product International Trade Research Center which is affiliated to the State Forestry Administration of the People’s Republic of China.

In the past, China mainly imported forest products dominated by the economic forest, and the export volume of high value-added products needed like furniture, paper and paperboard was on the increase. Mr. Chen said, “As environmental protection becomes a major issue of international trade involving forest product, legitimate trade regulations will be utilized by developed countries to impose limits on the trade of developing countries. And China has become the primary target of trade protectionism implemented by some countries.”

In addition, due to the increase of labor cost and environmental cost in China’s domestic market and the excess production capacity of some forest products, it is urgent to transform and upgrade the outdated development modes in terms of forest product trade.

International cooperation and self-improvement

Analysts noted that China’s forest products are still mainly exported to Europe and America; however, we feel pessimistic about part of such traditional exportdestinations. With the China-led Belt and Road Initiative being implemented, we could focus on the emerging markets surrounding the Belt and Road, among which ASEAN could be one of China’s major trading partners in the f eld of forest product trade.

China is set to cooperate with some ASEAN countries in terms of the development and utilization of forest resources; meanwhile, overseas wood processing parks featured by felling, processing, trade and logistics would be established by transferring and utilizing China’s high-quality production capacity like wood processing and forestry machinery manufacturing. By doing so, not only can the allocation of Chinese forestry enterprises be optimized, but also more employment opportunities and advanced technologies can be brought to the local areas. For instance, to continue strengthening the forestry cooperation between China and Myanmar, China is negotiating with Myanmar on the establishment of an overseas cooperation zone in the local area, hoping that cooperation agreements would be signed to set standards for bilateral processing trade of forest products.

ASEAN countries are the emerging markets with relatively mature conditions along the Belt and Road, with enormous market potential, and local consumers show great interest in wood culture; therefore, with a priority placed on ASEAN countries, Chinese enterprises concerned are more likely to be successful in not only trade of forest products but also production capacity cooperation and investment.

Most forest products in China are imported from the overseas markets like ASEAN countries, ranging from building materials to furniture and from bamboo & rattan to paper.

As a matter of fact, encouraging Chinese enterprises specializing in forest products does not mean that the development of China’s forestry can be ignored; instead, we should give high priority to technology research and development, as well as brand upgrading.