China-Russia Comprehensive Strategic Partnership: Formation， Features， and Prospects

Liu Fenghua

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China-Russia Comprehensive Strategic Partnership: Formation， Features， and Prospects

Liu Fenghua

The year 2016 marks the 20th anniversary of the China-Russia comprehensive strategic partnership （hereinafter referred to as “the strategic partnership”）. Over the past two decades， China and Russia have made consistent efforts to enrich and deepen this new type of state-tostate relations. On the occasion of commemorating this important diplomatic event， it is timely to review the development of this strategic partnership over the past two decades and to look at its future prospects.

Achievements and Challenges in the Strategic Partnership

Following the disintegration of the former Soviet Union， China and the Russian Federation established friendly relations and normalized their bilateral ties. Later on， their friendly relations were upgraded to a constructive partnership. Against the backdrop of the post-Cold War world order， geopolitical changes took place in Eastern Europe and East Asia， while the strategic triangle of China， Russia，and the United States lost its equilibrium. China and Russia established a strategic partnership in April 1996 with an emphasis on equality and mutual trust， looking toward the 21st century. Since then， relations between the two countries have entered a new historical stage. Generally speaking， the strategic partnership has developed smoothly， although it has become closer or looser at different times， and each party has its own focus.

During the past 20 years， major progress in the strategic partnership has been achieved in the following areas:

1. Political cooperation. Since 1996， the main mechanisms for the strategic partnership， such as regular meetings between the heads of state，heads of government， and foreign ministers of the two countries， have been established. The prime ministers' regular meeting committees （at the deputy prime minister level）， humanitarian cooperation committee， and the energy negotiators' meeting mechanism have been established successively. China and Russia have conducted fruitful consultation and coordination in these mechanisms and， as a result， their political friendship and mutual trust have been enhanced. With the development of China-Russia political relations and mutual trust， in particular at a time when hegemony and unilateralism in world affairs have become increasingly prominent， the two countries signed the Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation in 2001. The treaty， in the form of a legal document， determines the principles of developing the long-term strategic partnership and it establishes the most appropriate model for bilateral ties on the basis of drawing historical lessons. The ever-closer relations between China and Russia have provided a good condition for the settlement of border issues left over from history，and the two countries signed the 2004 Complementary Agreement on the Eastern Section of the China-Russia Boundary， and comprehensively resolved boundary issues between the two countries. China and Russia are both opposed to so-called “color revolutions，” and they resolutely uphold the diversity of civilizations and the right of countries to choose their own development path.

Russian President Vladimir Putin， right， and Chinese President Xi Jinping exchange documents at the signing ceremony in the Kremlin in Moscow， Friday， May 8， 2015. Russian and Chinese leaders have signed a plethora of deals in Moscow.

2. Diplomatic collaboration. Since its establishment， the strategic partnership has manifested in their coordinated diplomatic actions. These actions，especially when conducted at the global level， are highly strategic in nature. This includes their opposition to a unipolar world， their commitment to the establishment of a new political and economic order， opposition to the US missile defense system and the deployment of weapons in outer space，and for the maintenance of the authority of the United Nations in dealing with international security matters. Regional coordination also includes the establishment of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization （SCO） to jointly promote stability and development in Central Asia， opposition to the expansion of US-led military and political alliances with neighboring countries， and mutual support for the establishment of an open and equal regional security architecture in the Asia-Pacific region and in Europe. At both the bilateral and multilateral levels， China and Russia firmly support each other in actions aimed at maintaining state sovereignty and territorial integrity. They conduct close cooperation on international issues such as nuclear security on the Korean Peninsula， the Iranian nuclear issue， Afghanistan， Syria， and the Ukraine crisis，and the two countries coordinate in multilateral mechanisms like the United Nations， BRICS， G20， and APEC. Although certain strategically coordinated actions taken by China and Russia have featured effective countermeasures or containment against the US， the two countries have no intention of forming ananti-US alliance in a broader sense.

3. Military technology cooperation. After the collapse of the Soviet Union， military technology cooperation between China and Russia developed rapidly. From the early 1990s until 2005， China was the largest buyer of Russian weaponry. China imported a large number of military aircraft， air defense weapons， and naval equipment from Russia， including various types of Su-27 and Su-30 fighter jets， the S-300 PMU1 air defense missile system and Doyle M-1 SAM systems， Type-956 destroyers， and “Kilo”-class dieselpowered submarines. From 2006 to 2013， military technology cooperation between the two countries declined as China had acquired the general Russian military technology it needed. However， China remains one of the major export markets for Russian military technology. The signing of the supply contract in 2014 by China and Russia concerning the “S-400” air defense missile systems signified a new round of military technological cooperation between the two countries. This was the first time Russia exported the S-400 air defense missile system and it represented the most significant China-Russia military technology deal with a total value of over $3 billion. In November 2015， China and Russia signed a contract for 24 Su-35 fighter jets， totaling approximately $2 billion， making China the first importer of Su-35 fighters. Both the S-400 air defense missile system and Su-35 fighter are the most advanced Russian weapons. Their introduction in China will greatly enhance China's defense capability， and even have a positive impact on the military balance in Asia. Therefore， it can be said that the China-Russia military technological exchange has reached a strategic level.

4. Energy cooperation. Long-term strategic cooperation in the energy sector has become an important component of the strategic partnership. China and Russia have a good foundation for their cooperation in oil and gas because they are border-sharing neighbors and because they are the world's largest energy importer and exporter respectively. In 2011， crude oil pipelines between Russia and China were put into commercial operation， marking the establishment of an oil partnership between the two countries. China's access to reliable supplies of Russian crude oil via the land pipelines has not only diversified itssources of imported oil， but also reduced China's dependence on maritime oil transportation with its attendant risks. In 2015， Chinese oil imports from Russia increased to 42.43 million tons， and Russia became the second—largest oil supplier to China. Energy companies from the two countries have made joint efforts to expand their cooperation in oil and gas exploration and development，refineries and the chemical industry， and an integrated pattern of cooperation has taken shape from upstream to downstream industries. The agreement for gas delivery via the eastern pipelines signed by China and Russia in 2014 and the agreement reached by the two countries in 2015 on basic terms of gas supply via the western pipelines started China-Russia natural gas pipeline cooperation projects. At the same time， cooperation in nuclear energy， electricity， coal， and other fields is also strengthening.

5. Economic and trade cooperation. The trade volume between China and Russia increased from $6.84 billion in 1996 to $95.28 billion in 2014，an average annual growth rate of 71.8 percent in 18 years. Although the bilateral trade volume dropped to $69 billion in 2015 because of falling international energy prices and Western sanctions against Russia， the number of traded goods between the two countries still grew. China's share in Russia's foreign trade continued to rise， reaching 12 percent. From 2011 to 2015，China remained the largest trading partner of Russia， and Russia kept its place among China's top 10 trading partners. China's exports to Russia in terms of machinery and electronic products have increased markedly. The traded commodity structure between the two countries has improved. But，compared with bilateral trade， the investment between China and Russia still lags behind. However， China has become Russia's fourth-largest source of investment， and the two countries are actively engaged in investment cooperation in aviation， infrastructure and other areas. It should be said that China-Russia economic and trade cooperation is of strategic importance.

Some challenges have emerged in the strategic partnership over the past two decades. They are as follows:

First， there is a lack of strategic mutual trust between China and Russia.Their 20-year-long strategic cooperation has greatly enhanced mutual trust， but it is also undeniable that the two countries must work further in this area. In Russia， anti-China groups include a pro-West faction， ultranationalists， neo-Eurasianist radicals， and some administrative officials from the Far East region of Russia. Although these anti-China groups are not strong enough to impact Russia's China policy， their “China-threat” rhetoric such as “recovery of lost land，” “immigration expansion，” “resource plundering，”and “geopolitical hostility” can still find some adherents in Russian society. At a time when the national strength of both countries， as well as their international status keep changing， Russia's strategic concerns over a rising China has become a major psychological barrier to developing relations. Some in Russia harbor suspicions that， as China rises， it will pursue tougher policies toward Russia and that the tilting of the balance of power in favor of China will make Russia a junior partner of China. As such， they argue China will become a strategic rival of Russia. The 21st Century Strategy （draft）issued in January 2014 by the Russian Foreign and Defense Policy Council regarded China's rise as one of the main threats to Russia's national security. Some Russian scholars even believe that China's Silk Road Economic Belt aims for expansion into Central Asia and Russia. Russia's wariness of China has resulted in a lack of cooperation in Russia's Far East. In China， of course，some people still have memories of Czarist Russia and Soviet imperialism，and so some hold pessimistic views of the China-Russia strategic partnership. Therefore， China and Russia should make sustained efforts to dispel suspicions and strengthen strategic mutual trust， so as to promote the longterm development of the strategic partnership.

Second， China-Russia economic and trade cooperation should be further enhanced. Judged by the standard of their political cooperation，their economic and trade cooperation lags behind and it does not serve as a solid foundation for bilateral strategic coordination as yet. From a technical perspective， the trade commodity structure has to be optimized. Besides manufactured and electronic products， Chinese exports to Russia are mainly textiles and light industrial goods and other labor-intensive products； Russianexports to China are mainly resource-intensive products such as oil and gas and iron ore， with a low ratio of value-added products. The sharp decline of bilateral trade volume in 2015 showed clearly that the trade volume between the two countries depends heavily on oil prices， indicating that the commodity structure needs to be optimized. Chinese investment in Russia in 2015 amounted to only $3.37 billion， and Russian investment in China was even less. Limited investment will not boost bilateral trade. Therefore，the potential for mutual investment has to be tapped further. Some progress has been made in cooperative labor and project contracting and in the science and technology field， but the overall level is not high. The two sides should expand mutual market access and promote trade and investment facilitation according to the consensus reached by the two governments， and they should create favorable conditions for the sustainable development of economic and trade cooperation.

Finally， the US is the most important external factor affecting China-Russia relations. The US factor has two impacts on China-Russia strategic partnership. On the one hand， the US containment policy has pushed and enhanced the strategic partnership； on the other hand， the US is working hard to weaken the strategic partnership by sowing discord between China and Russia and by winning over one country while suppressing the other. After the terrorist attacks on September 11， 2001， the US improved its relations with Russia out of its anti-terrorist needs， thus causing an obvious weakening of the strategic partnership. After the “Orange Revolution” in Ukraine in 2004， China and Russia increased their coordinated actions on many issues including guarding against a “color revolution.” Since the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis， the US has once again chosen to contain China and Russia simultaneously， thus greatly enhancing China-Russia strategic partnership.

Trends in the Strategic Partnership

China and Russia established their strategic partnership in 1996. The Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation signed by the twocountries in 2001 determines the long-term development of good-neighborly relations and a strategic partnership featuring equality and mutual trust. In 2011， China and Russia announced the development of a lasting and comprehensive strategic partnership. Diplomatic practices by China and Russia have proved that the model of strategic coordination has become the basic mode of China-Russia relations.

According to diplomatic documents of the two countries， as well as their strategic cooperative practices， the model of China-Russia strategic coordination is a post-Cold-War bilateral mechanism set up by one country together with another for their concerted foreign policy and actions within a certain range of objectives， under the premise of keeping the independence of their respective foreign policies and on the basis of common interests. Therefore， although both sides stressed their cooperation is comprehensive and long-lasting， the two countries still remain non-aligned. So far， among China's partnerships with other countries， China has only a strategic coordinated partnership with Russia. It is China's predominant partnership so far as strategy is concerned.

The model of China-Russia strategic partnership has the following features:

First of all， its strategic features reflect the key areas where the two countries take long-term and coordinated actions. The Joint Statement by China and Russia in 1996 provides the scope of China-Russia strategic cooperation， which includes the establishment of a new international political and economic order， maintenance of strategic stability， and the promotion of security and cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region. These cooperation areas reflect shared concerns by the two countries. Therefore， common strategic interests of security， stability， and multipolarity were key areas of cooperation when China and Russia first established their strategic coordinative partnership， and the Treaty for Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation in 2001 makes China-Russia strategic cooperation in these fields the long-term objective.

Second， the China-Russia strategic partnership is not directed against a third country. Since it is only confined to their friendship and cooperation，the partnership is not an alliance. In practice， China and Russia do not intend to form an alliance， and they refrain from collaborative challenges to the hegemonic country. There is no denying that， in some specific areas including strategic security， coordinated actions taken by China and Russia are directional. However， this kind of partnership is directed against problems concerning security and stability instead of against any particular country. Let us assume that if， one day a re-militarized Japan tries to change by force the post-WWII order in East Asia so as to undermine the security of China and Russia， this problem will undoubtedly become the target of China-Russia strategic coordination. It is also important to note that， even in the aforementioned areas， China-Russia strategic cooperation is conducted through diplomatic approaches.

Third， the partnership is not ideologically based. This is a principle set forth by China and Russia when they established their strategic partnership by drawing upon historical lessons in their bilateral relations. Grave divergences between China and the former Soviet Union in de-Stalinization， domestic and foreign policies， and ideological and political lines for the international communist movement broke down the relationship between the two parties and deteriorated relations between them. In order to avoid repeating these mistakes， China and Russia have decided to base their relations on the basic norms of international relations and not to follow ideology. Such a nonideological feature is manifested as follows: to respect the choices made by the other country and its people for their respective social systems and model of development， to refrain from criticizing the domestic issues of the other country， and to jointly safeguard the principle that countries should independently choose their social systems and development paths.

Fourth， the strategic partnership has grown in depth and breadth. Driven by their strategic security cooperation， bilateral ties continue to “spillover” to a variety of new fields. At the same time， with ever-deepening cooperation in these various fields， cooperation in diplomacy， military technology， and energyhas reached the strategic level， and the economic and trade cooperation has shown initial strategic importance.

While developing their strategic partnership， China and Russia have drawn lessons from their long history of exchanges， and formed a series of realistic approaches to getting along. In addition to non-ideological state-tostate relations， other principles include independence， non-alignment， nonconfrontation toward other countries， mutual respect， good neighborliness，and the pursuit of mutually beneficial cooperation and balanced interests. Historically， the two countries formed alliances in 1896， 1945， and 1950，yet all the alliances ended up being ruptured， for various reasons. From the late 1960s to the late 1980s， China and the former Soviet Union were in a military and political confrontation， causing huge economic losses to both countries. History has repeatedly shown that cooperation benefits both while confrontation also hurts both. To live in peace and harmony is the best choice for the Chinese and Russian peoples.

The practice of China-Russia strategic partnership over the past two decades has laid a solid institutional， material， and social foundation for a bilateral relationship of good-neighborly friendship and cooperation. This means that people supporting the China-Russia friendship have certain expectations that the two countries will become allies. It also makes forces in the West who are apprehensive about a China-Russia alliance worried. The model of China-Russia strategic partnership is a loose mechanism for cooperation and consultation， without rigid constraints on both partners. From a global perspective， alliances， such as the NATO， are the most tightlyknit mechanisms for strategic collaboration. They have clear-cut stipulations for collective defense， conditions and geographic scope for functions，organizational structure， decision-making mechanisms， and integrated military deployment. NATO's identity means it has inflexible constraints， together with the soft constraints of ideology， which makes it so highly cohesive and operative.

In contrast， the China-Russia strategic partnership is not as rigid nor a legally binding program of joint actions. The two countries even havetheir own interpretation of some of their consensuses on common interests and common goals. Because of this， especially since China and Russia are challenged respectively in the east and west by growing strategic pressure and instability， public opinion inside China and Russia in favor of an alliance is on the rise. However， by analyzing the main conditions for an alliance， people can see that the security threats faced by China and Russia have not yet reached the level where they find it difficult to deal with them alone， and the international order and the balance of power is tilting in favor of China and Russia. Accordingly， the strategic objectives of the two countries at present are to achieve their respective modernization， instead of overthrowing the existing world order. Therefore， the two countries find it unnecessary to form an alliance. In other words， the strategic partnership can meet the needs of the two countries in its current state. What is needed is for the two countries to further enhance the level of their strategic coordination.

China-Russia Cooperation in Integrating the Silk Road Economic Belt and the Eurasia Economic Union

Since Chinese President Xi Jinping proposed the Silk Road Economic Belt in 2013， joint construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt has become an important part of China-Russia relations. Frank and candid exchanges between the two countries have helped to change Russia's initial negative attitude towards the initiative. Russia now seeks to merge the Silk Road Economic Belt with the Eurasian Economic Union （EEU）. In 2015， the two countries issued a joint statement on cooperation to integrate the Silk Road Economic Belt initiative with the EEU， declaring officially they will promote joint cooperation so as to strengthen regional economic integration. Later on， the two countries started their discussions on using the SCO as a joint cooperation platform. It should be noted that this involves many participant countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt and the five EEU member states， thus covering a wider scope than just China-Russia cooperation. The joint cooperation discussed herein is based on the dominant positionsof China and Russia in these two cooperation mechanisms as well as their leading roles in promoting integrated cooperation between the Silk Road Economic Belt initiative and the EEU.

It is of great practical significance for China and Russia to carry out cooperation to integrate the Silk Road Economic Belt and the EEU. To build the Silk Road Economic Belt together with Russia and the Russian-led EEU will help China export capital， technology， and goods to the Commonwealth of Independent States （CIS） region and expand foreign trade and economic cooperation. The promotion of infrastructure construction in Central Asia and its economic and social development will also increase China's friendly cooperation with Central Asian countries and will help maintain security and stability in China's Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region. The improvement of infrastructure and industrial distribution along the areas of the Silk Road Economic Belt， and the formation of a series of transport hubs and logistics centers will enhance the opening-up of the economy in these regions. At the same time， to integrate the Silk Road Economic Belt with the EEU will help Russia leverage Chinese capital and technology to develop the economy in its Far East region. Russia will gain significant benefits from better transport links. The economic and trade cooperation between Russia and the Asia-Pacific region will be accelerated， and Russia will be able to cover the losses caused by Western economic sanctions. To develop infrastructure in the EEU and to promote the EEU's cooperation with China in economic and trade areas will further the integration process under the framework of the EEU.

Cooperation on the Silk Road Economic Belt and EEU will provide fresh opportunities for China and Russia to upgrade their strategic partnership， and offer new opportunities to bring into full play the advantages of the China-Russia strategic partnership. At present， this is performed at a high-quality level and new impetus for sustainable development is needed by creating additional areas and measures for cooperation. If the previous bilateral economic， trade， and energy cooperation constitute important elements in the good neighborly friendship， then to launch integrated cooperation between the Silk Road Economic Belt and the EEU meansupgrading from diplomatic coordination to common development.

Cooperation in this new area has the following strategic importance. The areas where China and Russia conduct their strategic partnership have been expanded from Central Asia to the CIS region， thus promoting economic and trade ties among East Asia， the CIS countries， and the European Union. Similarly， the security cooperation area for the two countries has also been enlarged from Central Asia to countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt in the CIS region， since security and stability in the related region is a necessary condition for a smooth integrated cooperation of the two programs. Inter-regional transport infrastructure and economic and trade cooperation between China and Russia contribute to the formation of a community of common interests， reinforcing approval in both societies for a strengthened strategic partnership. It provides for the contemporary world a win-win model of regional cooperation， which will help avoid conflicts triggered by geopolitical and expansion-oriented regional economic integration. This can be taken as a good reference for what has happened in Ukraine and for exclusive regional integration processes undertaken by certain countries in the Asia-Pacific region.

The implementation of integrated cooperation in the Silk Road Economic Belt initiative with the EEU requires common strategic planning. Under the current initial stage， more attention should be paid to steady progress made through specific joint projects. In the planning， China and Russia can coordinate and merge their respective national development strategies and regional distribution of industrial cooperation along the Silk Road Economic Belt， and the SCO and the EEU can reach consensus on the goal of establishing a free trade area and on the road map of joint cooperation with the Silk Road Economic Belt and the EEU. In practice， mutually-agreed and economically-feasible lists for specific cooperation projects can be put in operation in a planned way， and mutual benefits can be achieved by sharing the fruits of cooperation. For various reasons， the two countries and the two organizations may not be able to reach a consensus on the establishment of a free trade area in the near future， but this should not stop the partiesconcerned from implementing joint projects in line with the principle of winwin cooperation in areas of mutual interest， and then to reach a consensus on longer-term cooperation objectives in the future.

Priority for joint cooperation by integrating the Silk Road Economic Belt with the EEU should be given to: first， infrastructure connectivity， including bilateral and regional railways， highways， oil and gas pipelines， aviation facilities， telecommunications and electricity networks； second， financial cooperation. The Silk Road Fund and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank， as well as other financial institutions， have to provide investment and financing support to infrastructure projects， resource development， and industrial cooperation along the Silk Road Economic Belt， while favorable conditions should be created to help Chinese enterprises enlarge their market share in the countries concerned. The scale of local currency settlement should be expanded to promote mutual trade and the internationalization of the renminbi. Reflecting substantial growth in the oil trade between China and Russia， the renminbi is used as a settlement currency， and both sides may extend the scope of the settlement currency to other commodity trading. Bilateral financing cooperation， with currency swaps included， should provide relevant guarantees in this respect. Third， industrial cooperation is also of importance. In countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt， China should increase the construction of industrial parks， so as to help Chinese enterprises expand their overseas production in complementary instead of in competitive ways. At the same time， more effort should be made to promote the alignment of the Silk Road Economic Belt with the Russian-led EEU in energy， telecommunications， agriculture， science， and technology. Cooperation in these areas will enable a high standard of integration of the Chinese advantages in capital and technology with the EEU advantages in energy and resources， thus bringing greater benefits to all partners. In addition， to provide a peaceful and secure environment for integrated cooperation， the two countries and two mechanisms should engage in cooperation to prevent regional turbulence， eliminate terrorist threats， and build up trust and friendship among East Asian countries， while removingapprehension and resentments about Chinese investment by some people in the CIS countries and countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt.

As always， opportunities coexist with challenges. Cooperation between the Silk Road Economic Belt and the EEU is no exception. The main challenges and problems include: Russia has a deep-rooted tradition of geopolitical thinking. Russia is unhappy to see any external force in its sphere of influence in the CIS countries， Central Asia included. Russia is concerned that China will turn its ever-growing economic impact into political force. Russia is wary of China expanding its influence through transport infrastructure under the framework of the Silk Road Economic Belt， so that Russia might resist infrastructure connectivity between China and relevant countries. Russia is worried about competition between the Silk Road Economic Belt with the Russian-led EEU， and about its weakening influence in Central Asia. Russia feels uncomfortable that its trans-Siberian routes will be marginalized by transformed Eurasian transport routes through Kazakhstan， which might affect Russia's plans to revitalize its Far East region. It should also be noted that the goal of the Russia-led EEU is to establish a common market while that of the Chinese of Silk Road Economic Belt is on economic and infrastructure cooperation instead of creating a sphere of influence， and the initiative is inclusive to all intended participants. Since the EEU economic cooperation is conducted at a deeper level than the cooperation in the Silk Road economic belt， China and Russia can avoid competition with coordinated actions and engage in cooperation in Central Asia and other CIS countries. Under current conditions， in which Russia is in conflict with the West， integrated cooperation between the EEU and the Silk Road Economic Belt brings potentially even greater benefits to Russia. Although faced with significant challenges， there is still reason to believe that China and Russia will seize upon these opportunities， fully realize the potential their strategic partnership holds， and bring their coordination in all fields to an even higher level.

Liu Fenghua is Research Fellow at the Institute of Russian， Eastern European and Central Asian Studies，Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.