CIIS Holds the Launching Ceremony of the Blue Book （2015）

□ Wang Yu

CIIS Holds the Launching Ceremony of the Blue Book （2015）

□ Wang Yu

On April 2， 2015， China Institute of International Studies（CIIS） launched The Blue Book on International Situation and China's Foreign Affairs （2015）. The event brought together 120 participants， including representatives from government agencies， academic institutions and institutes of higher learning，delegates from 60 foreign embassies in China and journalists from more than 20 domestic and foreign media outlets.

The Blue Book， published annually since 2006， is gaining growing recognition and ever-expanding influence. It has become a key publication for the CIIS brand.

Dr. Ruan Zongze， Vice President of CIIS， chaired the event and made an introduction to the book's framework and main content. The book comprises two parts， with the first part analyzing the international situation， with topics on such major players as the United States，Russia， the European Union and Japan，and the regional situations in Central Asia， the Middle East， Southeast and South Asia， Africa and Latin America，to analyses of hot-spot issues such as the nuclear issue on the Korean peninsula and the Iranian nuclear issue and the analyses of the new developments in the areas of world economy， arms control and nuclear disarmament. The second part focuses on reviewing China's diplomacy， including a summary of China's diplomatic achievements in 2014， analyses of its diplomacy toward surrounding countries， its multilateral diplomacy， economic diplomacy and military diplomacy， as well as analyses of its diplomatic relations with the US，Russia， Japan， India， the Association of South East Asian Nations， and its relations with Central Asian， African，Latin American， Arab and South Pacific nations.

Dr. Ruan combed through the overall international relations in 2014 and China's distinctive diplomatic behavior， and defined 2014 as a year of “geopolitical upheavals”， in which occurred a “black swan” event and also significant issues that have hadconsiderable influence on geopolitics in Europe， Asia， America and the Middle East.

The eruption of the Ukraine crisis caused ripples throughout the international community and triggered geopolitical jostling. The continuous escalation of military strife in the east of Ukraine marks another major military conflict in Europe after the Kosovo War and brings the security model in which Europe once took pride to collapse. The conflict has evolved into a proxy war between the West and Russia and their relations have plunged to freezing point. A new power struggle between the US， Russia and Europe has again pushed Europe to the frontline of a fierce geopolitical fight， bringing both losses and gains to all three parties.

The Asia-Pacific region has also become an arena for the struggles among powers， involving such key issues as mechanism building， rules remodeling and order struggles. The power games between China and the US and between China and Japan have become increasingly fierce. The US has comprehensively reinforced its political ties with its allies and partners in the region to strengthen its “rebalancing”to the Asia-Pacific. It has extended support to Japan， drawn nearer to India and intervened in the disputes among Asian countries over the sovereignty of some islands. The US has also strived to forge an Asia-Pacific security and economic and trade mechanism and sought to dominate the making of regional rules.

ASEAN has made greater efforts to build the economic community and skillfully conducted its diplomacy towards relevant powers. However，the meddling of non-regional powers into the region's affairs has risked turning the 10-nation grouping into a battlefield and exerted unprecedented pressures on its aspiration to maintain a central role in East Asian integration.

Outside Asia， the emergence of the Islamic State （IS） group has shocked the world and brought the Middle East to a post-Arab Spring crisis. The IS group，which originated in Syria and Iraq， has risen almost overnight to become the world's most powerful and influential terrorist organization， and this has produced some obvious “spillover effects”. The extremist group is irreconcilably hostile to Israel and also poses a challenge to the “scope of influence” of Iran and the US-led West in the Middle East. Due to the brutal means it uses， such as the beheadings of captives and looting， the emergence of the group has broken the established political structure in West Asia and North Africa. Furthermore， its extremist ideologies have attracted global extremists and terrorists to join the socalled Holy War and spread the threatof terrorism to the rest of the world. Although they have dealt a heavy blow to the terrorist organization， the thousands of airstrikes launched by 22 countries led by the US have failed to completely uproot the source of the IS threat.

Meanwhile， the thawing of USCuba relations has opened a post-Monroe Doctrine era for international relations in Latin America. Obama's initiative to ease tensions with Cuba in disregard of Republican opposition has demonstrated his desire to extricate himself from the existing political restraints and take initiatives to achieve a diplomatic breakthrough after the mid-term elections in the US. With such a move， Obama is aiming to secure his political legacy and lay a foundation for gaining the support of voters of Latin American descent in the 2016 presidential election. After acknowledging the decades-long “isolation” policy against Cuba has failed to work， Obama has finally turned to the pursuit of reconciliation with Havana， thus leading to a reversal in US-Cuban hostility.

The overlapping of cross-border issues and geopolitics have diversified and complicated global governance. At the same time， the mild recovery of the global economy， the drastic fall in oil prices， a raging Ebola virus，the heavily-veiled Malaysia Airlines air disaster as well as the possibility of a breakthrough being made to achieve reductions in greenhouse gas emissions， have contributed to a nontranquil world situation.

In the face of changed international situations， China， however， has introduced notable and colorful diplomatic initiatives.

China is the first country to advocate a new Asian security outlook. At the fourth summit meeting of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia （CICA）， which is the regional security forum in China covering the broadest area， with the largest number of member states and widest representation， in Shanghai on May 21，2014， President Xi Jinping delivered a keynote speech， putting forward a vision of common， comprehensive，cooperative and sustainable Asian security. This new security outlook has helped Asian countries break their security stalemate， advanced security cooperation and contributed the“China program” to strengthen Asian security.

APEC has been deeply stamped with a “China tinge”. In November 2014， China hosted the 22nd informal summit meeting of leaders of APEC members in Beijing， 13 years after it hosted the event in Shanghai in 2001. At a time when the world economy has changed tempo， China has played therole of “dance leader” and recalibrated the focus of the APEC. More than 50 proposals and programs put forward by China， involving regional economic integration， economic innovation and reforms， as well as interconnectivity，ensured the conference's high quality.

China has managed to forge close partnerships with relevant countries. China and the European Union have decided to build four major partnerships of peace， growth， reform and civilization. China's leaders have chosen surrounding countries as important destinations for their foreign visits. Aside from Russia，Chinese leaders have also paid a visit to the Republic of Korea， Mongolia， India，Sri Lanka and the Maldives. Efforts have also been made to push for the upgrading of its partnerships with Indonesia and Australia.

China has taken a sound step toward forging a new type of relationship with the US. The casual evening talks between President Xi Jinping and US President Obama at the Zhongnanhai during the latter's state visit to China in late 2014 has created a new “Beijing Model” for meetings between the two countries' heads of state. The new type of Sino-US relations pushed for by the leaders of two countries in recent years is converting the concept of such kind of relationship into practice， blossoming and yielding fruits， benefiting the peoples of both countries.

The BRICS development bank and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank have made headway shoulder to shoulder. The founding of China-led BRICS bank and AIIB indicates its growing financial influences.

China has managed to handle and control disputes with relevant countries in a constructive manner. On the South China Sea issue， China has come up with a “dual-track” way of thinking and urged non-regional countries to conduct themselves well and keep clear of regional disputes. The “Four Consensuses” reached on handling and improving bilateral relations have helped between China and Japan ease their diplomatic stalemate and take steps toward improving strained ties.

Aside from a keynote speech made by CIIS Vice President Ruan Zongze， some of the authors included in the Blue Book also gave speeches，including ones on the world's economic situation， the regional situations in Europe and Asia， and China's multilateral diplomacy. They also engaged in interactions and exchanges with other participants on a wide range of topics，such as China-Europe relations， the security situation in Asia， the Ukraine crisis， China's foreign policies toward the surrounding countries， as well as China-Africa relations.