籃球博士

Tom Mckleya

Fear can be an irrational thing. But of all the things that scare people， basketball players being afraid they wont be able to work in basketball after retiring is a rather small concern. The NBA and college ranks are filled with former players at every single level. Rasheed Wallace got hired in player development immediately after retirement. Rasheed Wallace. Fear about heart disease， saving enough for retirement， driving in the rain， remembering to record Cosmos -- these are all fears way more valid than basketball players being afraid they wont be able to work in basketball after retiring.

恐懼是一件缺乏理性的事情。但在所有讓人類感到恐懼的事中，球員擔心在退役后不能再從事籃球方面的工作，可謂是一個非常之小的擔憂。在NBA和大學各級聯(lián)賽中，處處可見前職業(yè)球員的身影。拉希德·華萊士在退役后迅速被雇傭成為了指導球員發(fā)展的助理教練。擔心心臟病，為退休后的生活攢夠錢，在雨中駕駛，不能忘記記錄宇宙變化，這些都比球員擔心自己退役后不能繼續(xù)籃球方面的工作來的更重要。

Thats what made this curious ESPN.com story apparently written by Chris Broussard so……well， curious.

可正是這種擔憂讓克里斯·布洛薩德在體育電視網(wǎng)寫下了這個不尋常的故事，對，就是不尋常的。

There is a growing concern that the rise in the popularity of basketball analytics（such as player efficiency rating and true shooting percentage） has led to more statbased personnel hires rather than ex-players becoming general managers.

“隨著籃球分析學的流行度增加（諸如球員效率值、真實命中率），基于數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計的人，相比過去，比球員更容易成為球隊總經(jīng)理?！?/p>

One former star in the NBA with years of front office experience said that there is a divide within front offices between those who are perceived to be stat guys and those who are considered basketball lifers.

一個有著多年球隊管理經(jīng)驗的前NBA球星說，在球隊管理層中，管理者，數(shù)據(jù)人員，以及一生從事籃球行業(yè)的人，他們之間還是有著本質(zhì)區(qū)別的。

If there is a divide， thats a problem individual front offices absolutely need to figure out. Front offices need to be united. But the concern that quants① are taking jobs from explayers is really overblown. By my count， there are two NBA GMs who dont have lifelong ties to organized basketball： Daryl Morey in Houston and Sam Hinkie in Philadelphia. Other GMs all either played in college or the pros， worked in basketball in college or have worked only in basketball after college.

如果真的存在區(qū)別，那這就是球隊管理層絕對需要弄清的問題。我們都知道，球隊管理層需要和諧團結(jié)。但是，數(shù)據(jù)分析專家從退役球員那里奪走工作機會的擔憂卻是被過分鼓吹的。按照我的統(tǒng)計，只有兩支NBA球隊的總經(jīng)理之前沒有在籃球領域長久工作的經(jīng)歷，一個是休斯敦火箭的達雷爾·莫雷，另一個則是費城76人的薩姆·辛基。至于其他的球隊的總經(jīng)理們，要么在大學，要么在其他聯(lián)賽中打過球，要么就是在大學中從事籃球工作或者在大學畢業(yè)后在籃球圈里工作。

So our thesis here -- that quants are taking all the GM jobs from ex-players -- is suspect. The requisite anonymous quotes are far worse.

因此，我們的結(jié)論如下：數(shù)據(jù)人員從前球員那里搶走籃球經(jīng)理工作是極其可疑的，而文中不可或缺的匿名消息源的舉證，看起來竟是如此蒼白無力。

"Basketball guys who participated in the game through years of rigorous training and practice， decades of observation work through film and field participation work feel underutilized and under-appreciated and are quite insulted because their PhDs in basketball have been downgraded，" the former executive， who chose to remain anonymous， told ESPN NBA Insider Chris Broussard.

“那些常年經(jīng)歷嚴酷訓練和練習，并有數(shù)十年比賽錄像研究和臨場經(jīng)驗積累的籃球從業(yè)人士覺得自己沒有完全發(fā)揮能力，沒有得到足夠的賞識，而且還被極大地侮辱了，因為他們的籃球博士學位被低估了?！边@位仍然保持匿名的前球隊經(jīng)理如是告訴ESPN NBA Insider欄目的克里斯·布洛薩德。

Whoa. You know， for PhDs in basketball to be downgraded， they need to have first actually existed. So let me help with that.

你要知道，對于籃球博士學位一直被低估這件事，首先，這個學位必須真實存在，我們才能繼續(xù)愉快地討論！那么，讓我來深入探究下。

"Generally speaking， neither the [newer generation of] owners nor the analytic guys have basketball in their background，" the longtime executive told Broussard. "This fact makes it easy for both parties to dismiss the importance of having experience in and knowledge of the game."

“通常來說，新一代的球隊老板和善于數(shù)據(jù)分析的新人都沒有籃球背景，”這個從業(yè)多年的球隊經(jīng)理告訴布洛薩德，“這使得兩者都看低了擁有比賽經(jīng)驗和知識的重要性?！?/p>

No， the newer owners typically dont have first-hand basketball experience. Except， well， Michael Jordan. But the issue seems to be what kind of basketball background counts according to this worried ex-player. Because unless you are using a strict， NBA-only， playersonly definition of basketball background， the anonymous exec is absolutely wrong.

是的，球隊的新老板們并沒有一手的籃球經(jīng)驗。當然，山貓的邁克爾·喬丹例外。但是，對于拋出那個觀點并憂心忡忡的前球員而言，問題的關鍵在于怎樣的籃球背景才真正算數(shù)。因為，除非你假設一個非常嚴厲苛刻的條件，比如必須用“NBA，球員”這個條件來定義籃球背景，不然，這位匿名的球隊經(jīng)理的說法是絕對錯誤的。

Take a look at the GMs in question and other recent hires.

讓我們帶著疑問來審視一下球隊的總經(jīng)理和近來發(fā)生的一些雇傭大事件吧。

Rob Hennigan， the young GM of the Magic， is considered a stats GM. He is also Division III Emerson Colleges all-time leading scorer. Sam Presti， the vanguard of the New Wave， played at Emerson too. His first job out of college？ He interned for the Spurs and convinced his boss to draft Tony Parker. His entire professional life has been in basketball.

羅伯·亨尼根，魔術年輕的總經(jīng)理，被認為是一個數(shù)據(jù)至上的球隊總經(jīng)理，但同時他也是愛默生大學在三級聯(lián)盟中的主要得分手。薩姆·普萊斯利，他是前新波浪隊的前鋒同時也曾在愛默生大學打球。他大學畢業(yè)之后的第一份工作是在馬刺實習，并且說服了老板選擇了托尼·帕克，他的整個職業(yè)生涯一直在籃球領域。

The Suns Ryan McDonough？ His entire professional career was spent working for the Boston Celtics （a basketball team） before getting hired by Phoenix. The Kings Pete DAlessandro？ In college， he worked as a video coordinator for a guy named Lou Carnesecca. After law school and a spell in politics， he worked as an agent and then under Chris Mullin （noted Basketball PhD） with the Warriors.

至于太陽隊的萊恩·麥克多諾？在被太陽雇傭前，他的整個職業(yè)生涯都是在波士頓凱爾特人度過的。你說國王的皮特·德亞歷桑德羅？哦，他在大學為一個叫盧·卡爾內(nèi)塞卡的人作視頻分析員。從法律學校畢業(yè)并在政治領域度過了一段時間后，他還做過球探，然后跟著克里斯·穆林與勇士隊合作。

Masai Ujiri， the vaunted boss of the Raptors？ He played two years in college and six years in Europe before getting into scouting and， eventually， advanced metrics. The Blazers Neil Olshey worked in player representation and draft preparation before joining the Clippers in a player development role. （Also， Olsheys background isnt in advanced math： its in soap opera acting.） Bob Myers， who leads a front office invested in quant analysis， played four years at UCLA and was an agent before switching sides. Denvers Tim Connolly has worked in the NBA since 1996. Or， longer than Andre Miller.

馬賽·烏杰里，猛龍驕傲的老板？他在大學打了兩年籃球，然后又在歐洲打了六年才踏進了球探領域，最后，成為了該領域杰出的風向標。開拓者的總經(jīng)理尼爾·奧爾謝在去快船做球員發(fā)展工作前，做過球員選秀和起草準備的工作。（而且，他的背景不是高等數(shù)學，而是電視劇表演）鮑勃·邁爾斯所領導的辦公室，致力于數(shù)理統(tǒng)計分析領域，他在UCLA打過四年球并且在換工作之前做過球探。丹佛的蒂姆·康納利從1996年起就在NBA工作，或許，比老米勒的時間還長。

And the leagues very latest GM hire， Phil Jackson， not only has a Basketball PhD， hes handed out a few， too.

而聯(lián)盟最新雇傭的總經(jīng)理，菲爾·杰克遜，他不僅有籃球博士學位，同時他還培養(yǎng)出來了一批人。

Lets look at that quote again.

讓我們再來看下這段引用自匿名消息源的論據(jù)。

"Generally speaking， neither the [newer generation of] owners nor the analytic guys have basketball in their background，" the longtime executive told Broussard. "This fact makes it easy for both parties to dismiss the importance of having experience in and knowledge of the game."

“通常來說，新一代的球隊老板和善于數(shù)據(jù)分析的新人都沒有籃球背景，”這個從業(yè)多年的球隊經(jīng)理告訴布洛薩德，“這個現(xiàn)象使得這兩者都低估了擁有比賽經(jīng)驗和籃球知識的重要性?！?/p>

Wrong. The so-called analytic guys just dont have the qualifications this anonymous ex-player feels are necessary for a Basketball PhD. Maybe Hennigan has a Masters in Basketball Administration， but no PhD in Basketball. That quoted ex-player is just mad that NBA playing experience is no longer the fastest track to one of those coveted NBA general manager jobs.

大錯特錯！這些所謂的善于數(shù)據(jù)分析的人，他們僅僅是沒有達到匿名消息源所認同的籃球博士資格。也許亨尼根有一個籃球碩士學位，而不是博士。這位前球員僅僅是對擁有NBA籃球經(jīng)歷的人，在競爭總經(jīng)理職位時不再具有優(yōu)勢而感到生氣。

Should it be？ Well find that out as the NBA continues to diversify its front office hiring （which was once almost 100 percent ex-NBA players）. What the brilliant Amin Elhassan says in the video that accompanies Broussards piece is spot on： the reality is that quants arent taking over， front offices are just becoming more well-rounded. McDonough is a perfect example of the new style of GM： a tape-obsessed "basketball lifer" who knows the cap like the back of his hand and is totally comfortable using advanced metrics. Hybrids --double-majors in Basketball and Math， not fullon quants -- are the real future of the NBA GM position.

應該這樣么？我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，以前的管理層幾乎都是由前NBA球員在擔任，而現(xiàn)在的聯(lián)盟持續(xù)推進管理層多樣化。飽負才氣的阿明·艾爾哈桑就在視頻中說關于布洛薩德的調(diào)查結(jié)果：數(shù)據(jù)分析專家并沒有占據(jù)總經(jīng)理職位，事實上，球隊管理層只是變得更加多才多藝了。麥克多諾是一個用來佐證新型球隊總經(jīng)理的極佳例子：他是一個對籃球錄像了如指掌的職業(yè)籃球錄像分析師，并且對使用先進數(shù)據(jù)分析工具感到毫無壓力。擁有籃球和數(shù)學雙重專業(yè)，而不是單純的數(shù)據(jù)分析工兵，這種混合型人才將會是NBA總經(jīng)理的未來走向。

If that leaves some ex-players behind， so be it. If teams suffer for it， theyll start hiring ex- players exclusively again. But making this an open partisan mess by giving inflammatory quotes to a reporter sure isnt going to help bridge the gap. Itd be much better for these ex-players feeling left behind to make themselves indispensable to NBA owners and decision-makers. Complaining about the wind wont stop it.

如果這種人才把一些退役球員甩在身后，那就順其自然吧！如果球隊因為雇傭數(shù)據(jù)專家而遭了殃，那么他們又會重新開始雇傭球員。但是通過將煽動性的言論透露給記者，制造一種公開的黨派之爭，是絕不會有助于在兩者中搭建溝通橋梁的。對于這些感到遭到遺棄的前球員來說，這樣的抱怨會使他們在NBA老板和決策者中變得不可或缺，但是，抱怨這種變革之風并不會阻止時代的洪流！