Some Observations on Characteristics of China-U.S.-Russia Triangular Relationship

By Li Xing, Associate Professor

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Some Observations on Characteristics of China-U.S.-Russia Triangular Relationship

By Li Xing, Associate Professor

Beijing Normal University

Part One

A triangular relationship is certainly composed of three sides, and the changing side profoundly impacts the other two sides, so these three sides constitute the triangular relationship. In other words, the three sides are in profound interactions, and influence each other. Or, it cannot be identified as a triangular relationship. Accordingly, China, the United States and Russia, as the permanent members of the UN Security Council and the nuclear powers, with the comprehensive national strength and total economic aggregate, population, resources and other elements in leading positions in the world, and as heavy-weight actors on the international stage, constitute the triangular relationship existing not only in the 1970s~90s, but still in existence, only the era environment and conditions, the compared strength between the three countries, the impact scope and degree have changed.

The current China-U.S.-Russia triangular relationship is not as influential as during the cold war, and has little global and strategic significance, only impacting certain regions and fields. At present, it is mainly reflected in regions such as Northeast Asia, Central Asia, the Middle East and etc. In Northeast Asia, Japan has the territorial disputes with South Korea, Russia, and China; the reunification issues of China and of the Korean Peninsula are yet to be resolved; a peace treaty is neither signed between United States of America with DPR Korea, nor between Russia and Japan, so it can be said that although the cold war ended, yet, the cold war legacy still remains in Northeast Asia. On the Korean Peninsula crisis, relatively similar views and interests of two groups of countries can be basically seen, namely, the United States, Japan and South Korea coming to one group while China, the DPR Korea and Russia forming another one, which although is not as open, clear and confrontational as during the Korean war.

An administration of country can change, so do its domestic politics, but the national interests show a certain historical inheritance and continuity. Therefore, its foreign policy also shows a "staggering similarity". The China-U.S.-Russian triangular relationship does not show as strong interaction as during the cold war period. While China and Russia develop their relationship, they also strive to develop relationship with the United States. A few years ago, President Medvedev visited the four Northern Islands regardless of Japan's opposition, objectively signaling a support on the Chinese position regarding the Diaoyu Islands. Russian aircrafts flew over the largest U.S.-Japan military exercise in history, also a warning to the U.S.-Japan alliance. In Central Asiawithin Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), Russia rather than the United States becomes China’s strategic partner. The SCO is led by China and Russia, excluding the United States. Although its future may change, generally speaking, the traditional Russian influence in Central Asia cannot be ignored, and gets a upper hand in Central Asia game-play. The United States is unable to substitute for Russia, and is also very difficult for Russia to drive away Americans.

Political relationship and economic relationship in international relations are not always positive-oriented. A close economic relationship does not necessarily mean or bring about friendship and mutual trust in political relations. Political trust is not necessarily based on large amount of trade and investment. In the China-U.S.-Russian triangular relations, China and Russia enjoy good high political relations (military, security, political, diplomatic relations), while their low political relations (economic, cultural, social and others areas) are so so. And China and the United States enjoy good low political relations, while their high political relations are so so. The top level mutual trust between China and Russia (including strategic, political and security areas) is better than that between China and the United States, but economic ties between China and the United States is stronger than that between China and Russia, while the U.S.-Russia military security relations is closer than that of U.S.-China’s.

Whether it is the Sino-U.S. relations, or the Sino-Russian relations, there is a "political conflict" situation for China. Although some people do not understand, and have some suspicions too, but the Sino- Russian friendship is the general trend, and a wise choice, which is decided by the geopolitics and international pattern. On Central Asian, Syrian, Snowden and other events, China and Russia enjoyed good cooperation, and even successful cooperation on the island disputes in Northeast Asia as well as huge cooperation space in the future. China and Russia share more common language. Although we have good wishes, hope to develop good relations with the United States, and move ahead in the this direction, the United States often stirs up provocations and makes trouble due to the existence of structural contradictions with China, occupying strength advantages and holding the initiative in China-U.S. relations. Although it is different from the beginning of reform and opening up as then China requested more from the United States while the U.S. side less from China. Since the new century, the Sino-U.S. relations is developing in a direction that China requests less and less from the United States while the United States does more and more from China, however, many more Chinese learn English than Americans learning Chinese, so China’s understanding of the United States is much better than the U.S. understanding of China. China is on the rise, the United States is returning to Asia-Pacific. In China, from ordinary people to the national leaders, all wish subjectively to build sound relations with the United States. As the world's two largest economies, and China is the U.S. largest creditor, so between China and the United States there are too many reasons for them to improve relations. China hopes to see the vast Pacific Ocean can accommodate the interests and concerns of both countries. But because of the existing structural contradictions (including political, economic, religious, cultural, international order in all aspects of the relationship) between China and the United States, the development of the bilateral relations is always not smooth, striking one snag after another, and often changing. Whether China and the United States can be friendly is not determined by China and China side is by no means the key-factor. However, this in no way means that China can do nothing, nor does it mean that China has no responsibilities.

The Sino-U.S. relations and Sino-Russian relations are the two most important major powers bilateral relations for China. The Sino-U.S. relationship is the key to new-type major powers relationswhile the Sino-Russian relationship is a model for new-type major powers relations. Chinese new president Xi Jinping chooses Russia rather than the United States for his first overseas visit, embodying the national grand strategy and foresight from a height, and a significant move by the new generation of leaders.

Part Two

At the end of the cold war, the U.S. power reached its zenith, and it is believed that even the combined Chinese and Russian strength is unmatched with the American, therefore, the United States initially was neither interested in, nor optimistic about the future development of SCO.1The United States is the financial crisis initiator, and caused its both soft and hard power decline somewhat, but Chinese and Russian relative strength witness growth. For example, the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games can be viewed as a landmark of rising China in a "soft" way, while the Russian war with Georgia marks the Russian magnificent revival in a "hard" way. However, the balance of power among China, the United States and Russia only witnesses a quantitative change, not a qualitative change. The International pattern is in transition from being featured by the super power and few strong powers to a one by few strong powers and the super power.2The U.S. sole superpower status does not shake. Both China and Russia strive to develop relations with the United States, which often overtakes their bilateral relationship. The United States is in more active, beneficial and advantageous position. In the global game-play between China and the United States, most innovations and entrepreneurs come from the United States, which is lucky enough to have a large number of young talents, and this is different with China. Smart Chinese are still fond of going to the U.S. university education, and American dream is still a magnet to attract adventurers, who look for opportunities to get to the top. The U.S. military still the most powerful armed forces in the world; and the United States is blessed with abundant natural resources.3China is still an "adolescent power ", and still needs "keeping a low profile".

The international financial crisis has a serious impact on China, the United States and Russia. Since the end of the cold war, Russian revival has passed through a W type winding, the U.S. development through a U type slow transition, China’s growth through a V type jump turnover. The Sino-U.S. relations, and the U.S.-Russian relation have experienced twists and turns, while the Sino-Russian relations remained relatively stable. The China-U.S.- Russia triangular relationship is featured by non-confrontation and non- alliance.

The United States is the representative of developed countries, China is the representative of developing countries, while Russia is the representative of countries in transition. The national character, culture and historical tradition of the three countries are totally different. Obviously, these three countries are heavyweight players among major powers, but also the world "miracles". Peacefully disintegrated, bleeding prevented, cracking without collapsing, and declined without death, Russia is a "miracle" in international politics, and quickly stages a comeback. China is a "miracle" of the international financial crisis, outshining others with still high growth. The United States is a "miracle" of the international system and international relations, today's world superpower with strong innovation and attraction, as well as good at overcoming and passing on crisis. In the international architecture after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Russia is a loser, but neither failed nor collapsed. is neither completely lost, nor admitted being defeated. The United States gives itself the airs of the cold war winner, and gets the upper hand. But the cold war dividend has become less and less. China enjoys "hitchhike" with vested interests, but has to pay in the future, and the future payment will be more expensive.

China, the United States and Russia each has its special hard and soft power, and its own merits. From the negative perspective, for instance there are the U.S. hegemonism, Russian empire sentiments, and "China threat" theory; from the positive perspective, there are the U.S. "freedom", "democracy", the Chinese "peaceful development", "harmonious world ", and "beautiful China" proposed by the CPC 18thNational Congress, as well as the Russian national character of holding justice, humanity spirit, etc. The U.S. and Russian military "hard power" is still the first, economic "hard power" is Russia's weakness as the soft belly, the Chinese economic "hard power" has greatly improved, but the cultural soft power is yet to be fully carried forward. After the international financial crisis, with the relative rise of Chinese and Russian strength and international influence, and American relatively decline, the world architecture is in transition from a superpower with few strong powers to few strong powers with a superpower. But the U.S. "smart power" is experienced and astute, such as Southeast Asian countries "inviting" the U.S. return for holding "justice", and balancing China’s power and influence. The U.S. so-called "smart diplomacy" makes up for the declined defects. It has leading ability to pass crisis to others, to change disadvantages into advantages, and to come up with innovations. The United States is an expert on major powers game-play and geopolitical strategy. The China-U.S.-Russia triangular relationship is largely relied on its China-related and Russia-related policies. As the only superpower, the United States always acts with hard and soft tactics, civil and military aid, two pronged approaches; sows dissension or divides and disintegrates. No matter how specific tactics are, there is only one strategic goal, i.e. maintaining the U.S. global hegemony. It timely adjusts to changing circumstances, plays flexibly and pragmatically, and maneuvers among various political actors to implement "the U.S. grand strategy".4

Part Three

China, the United States and Russia all have top power transfer and all their development strategies moving to the East, which inevitably impact the triangular relationship. China held the CPC 18thNational Congress, achieved a smooth transfer of power, China’s foreign policy maintains continuity, but also strengthens the peripheral diplomacy. Russian "Medvedev-Putin combination" turns into "Putin-Medvedev combination", its foreign policy will not take a essential change, so the relationship between China and Russia is relatively stable although some in-depth problems are also exposed. With the U.S. strategic focus turning eastward to the Asia- Pacific region, and replacement of anti-terrorism by economic development becoming the first priority, the United States gradually identifies China replacing Russia as its main rival, Sino-U.S. cooperation will be further deepened while contradictions and conflicts will increase and aggravate, thus, generating serious setbacks. Due to the U.S. policy adjustments on world security and CIS, and deepening contacts with the world economy after Russia's accession to the WTO, although Putin has distanced from the United States, the U.S.-Russia relationship from the past "restart" to the present new "pause" will also be possible to get eased because of the traditional "pendulum effect", and distantly-related relative looking at the Russian-U.S. relations religiously and culturally. Russia will increase its requests from both the United States and China. The United States as the sole superpower is still in initiative and advantageous position. The key lies in whether its comprehensive strength and foreign policy will change or not. The main driving force for the triangular relationship comes from the United States.

Since the end of 2011, the United States returns to East Asia, carries out the so-called "Air-Sea battle" strategy in the South China Sea and the East China Sea, and builds up anti-missile defense systems in Europe with tough attitude despite of Russian opposition. This U.S. attitude is similar to that in the early period of the end of the cold war, launching attacks by both fists at the same time. The U.S. strong return to the Asia-Pacific region, especially the military return brings pressure to China and Russia, but also provides a new opportunity for the security cooperation between China and Russia. Xi Jinping chooses Russia as his first overseas trip, positions Russia as China’s most important strategic and coordinate partner, and states to prioritize the all-round development of China-Russia strategic and coordinate partnership. In the Russian new edition of foreign policy thinking, Putin states that Russia needs a prosperous and stable China, and China needs a strong and successful Russia.

Table I Before Obama in the White House, comparison between U.S. China policy and Russia policy

Table II. After Obama’s smart foreign policy, comparison between U.S. China policy and Russia policy

In the early period of the end of the cold war, the U.S. unilateral tough position is established on the basis of its super strength, including its hard power, soft power, comprehensive strength, unilateral hegemony, and overbearing. While the current relative strength of China and Russian is on the rise, the U.S. relative strength is on the decline due to difficulties of the financial crisis and several wars, so its superpower position mainly relies on the so-called smart power, soft power and hard military power to support. The strategic coordination between China and Russia is a success, the U.S. unilateral hegemony is irrational, insensible, and also hard to prolong. Keeping pace with the times, the diplomatic concept and diplomatic strategy of the Obama Administration change quickly, and even can be viewed as a success. Either Obama's TPP, or Putin’s "Eurasian union", there are different approaches but equally satisfactory results, all are for a layout after the general election in 2012. The only difference is that the former is in the Asia-Pacific region while the latter is in the CIS region to control the economy and political dominance. The three countries have different political systems, ideological competition does not exclude communication and cooperation in economy, technology, culture fields, etc. "The economy is globalized, while politics is often localized". Therefore, the multi channel communication, sound interaction, friendly competition, harmony but not sameness, harmonious development, mutual benefit and mutual trust, win-win cooperation should be advocated.

China has neatly become world No. 2, but has lost the status and conditions in achieving success one way or another as during the cold war in the big triangular relations. "Ostrich policy" is difficult to continue, "peaceful development", and "harmonious world" concepts are not always smooth, sometimes run into temporary difficulties and obstacles, especially in the East and South China coasts, factors behind the scene cannot be separated from the U.S. side. China neither has the strength to become the world No.1, nor the subjective desire to do so, not to become a leader, not to contend hegemony, and not to seek hegemony are Chinese basic national policy and strategic choice. Saying that China is to replace America and dominate the world is a myth .5The world No.2 position depends on objective strength, not on the subjective and political promotion, and is most likely to become the focus of international contradictions. To blindly avoid contradictions may not only be of no avail, but may get results contrary to ones wishes. So, China should pay attention not only to the "hard power", but also to the "soft power", special attention should be paid to the "smart power", and know by heart its own strengths and weaknesses, have a definite target in view, and prescribe an antidote against the disease. China should have its own grand diplomatic strategies, continue to keep low profile, and achieve positive results.

The factor of Russian role in the Sino-U.S. relations is changing, but still plays a part. There are structural contradictions in the Sino-U.S. relations and Russia does not pose a practical threat to China, therefore, Russia has become the most essential and most important strategic partner for China. Under certain conditions, the Russians may play the "Chinese card" to the United States and play the "U.S. card to China". In the diplomatic strategy, because Chinese interests are multiple rather than single, different departments, different regions, different interests, and different social strata have different focus and different needs in different areas and different periods, China carries out a "two-way cooperation" strategy with both Russia and the United States, namely cooperation with Russia in military and political areas as well as in some energy projects while cooperation with the United States in economic and financial areas as well as in some cultural projects. All the cooperation is not all-dimensional but local, and tries one way or another with checks and balances, to pursue maximization of national interests.6

President Xi's first overseas visit to Russia rather than the United States, which, in fact, is related to geopolitical strategy, international architecture, jointly anti-hegemonism, mutual benefit and win-win progress. As a matter of fact, China’s national security threats only come from two directions: the southeast coast and northwest landmass. The southeast coastal situation is decided by the United States while in northwest situation Russia plays a decisive role. Since we have confidence in the United States, so to develop friendly relations with Russia is a strategic choice with all benefits but no harm. From the international perspective, one is opposed to NATO's eastward expansion, another one to the U.S.-Japan alliance, so the two coming together is the best choice. As permanent members of the UN Security Council and the nuclear powers, China and Russia bear important responsibilities and obligations to maintain world peace and security, oppose the unipolar hegemony, safeguard the UN authority, respect international law, and advocate democracy in international relations. China and Russia are the largest neighboring countries to each other, the shared border is long, linked by mountains and rivers, their natural environment is similar, their cooperation for development, common development, mutual benefit and win-win cooperation conform to the megatrend of international economic and political focus moving toward the Asia-Pacific region, and elevating their own national comprehensive strength and influence.

The Chinese new central collective leadership attaches greater importance to the surrounding areas and the BRICS system from the past emphasis on the West and the United States, gives equal consideration to both the East and the West, and the Eastern-Western regional balance from the past Eastern region-oriented development; lays more emphasis on economic, political and security combination from the past pure economic development. Russia is the largest Chinese neighbor and also the main BRICS member, so it naturally has become the priority of China’s diplomacy. In fact, from the relationship developed among China, the United States and Soviet Union since the Second World War (including WWII), particularly since the end of the cold war, it can be viewed that the United States and Russia have tremendous impacts on China modernized development.

In what aspects does the United States take common policy to China and Russia? It imposes pressures on the geopolitics, human rights, information security (like Snowden event), regional issues (such as the Syria crisis), and arms sales, etc.. In terms of geopolitics, it opposes China and Russia to come too close, prevents them from becoming its competitors, and challenging its global dominance. In the field of human rights, it accuses of China and Russia, frequently imposes pressures (including on Chechnya and East Turkistan matters), and accuses China and Russia of "human trafficking", as well as the 2013 annual "international trafficking in persons report" lists China and Russia in the third category of "most ineffective cracking down on trafficking in persons". In the area of cyber (information) security, it claims that China and Russia are the "biggest hackers", stealing information, and spying, and threatens to utilize force against cyber attacks. The U.S. propagation of the so-called "cyber freedom of speech" is also jointly resisted and opposed by China and Russia (such as "Prism gate" actor Snowden). Regarding Syria crisis, because China and Russia together repeatedly reject the Western proposals, the United States accuses the two of "shamelessly" "interfering" with the international community to overthrow the Bashar dictatorship, and the settlement of the Syrian problems. Regarding militarizing space, it intends to take advantage of its technology to militarize the outer space in defiance of the Chinese and Russian opposition. On the anti-missile defense systems, it plans deployment of Asian anti-missile defense systems in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and other places, to strengthen the U.S.-Japan alliance, and shows the tendency of NATOizing Asia opposed by both China and Russia. The United States is against Turkey, a NATO member, to import air defense systems from China and Russia, as well as Russia’s import from France the "northwest wind", and opposes the EU lifting arms embargo on China. The U.S. opposition to the Chinese and Russian joint response to Japan will land its self in a passive position.

In the past triangular relationship, the United States and the Soviet Union were the two superpowers with well-matched strength, China was the weakest but in most favorable and flexible position. In the triangular relations after end of the cold war, China is rising in status, but not enough to replace Russia and become a U.S. full counterpart as diamond cutting diamond. Russia is declining in status, but not so bad to become poor and weak as China once was. The United States is still the superior, with unmatched comprehensive national power. China’s GDP is world No. 2 while Russia's military is world No. 2. China has the biggest population while Russia has unmatched natural resources in this world. Therefore, in the triangular relationship in the past, the United States and the Soviet Union were well-matched, and currently China and Russia share similar position. The Russia-U.S. security strategic relations, and the Sino-U.S. economic interdependent relations are weight equal to the United States. The triangular relationship among China, the United States and Russia is one of the most complex, the most important and the most delicate triangular relationships in the current world.

The United States has won love, admiration and envy by many people in China, which is an undeniable fact, but from the national strategic perspective, the United States is China's largest communication partner, and also the biggest competitor, but not natural enemy. No matter how to look at Russia, to comprehensively develop strategic coordinative partnership with Russia is all beneficial without harm, and ideas to underestimate Russia or to utilize Russia is wrong. Of course, the Sino-Russian relationship does has some problems, some are sharp or even very sharp. The matter is whether there is a problem or not, since problems between major powers are normal, and are identified by top leaders so the key lies in how to solve the problem fairly, satisfactorily and peacefully.7

1.[U.S.] John Ikenberry, “America Unrivalled: The Future of the Balance of Power” (M). Beijing: Peking University Press, 2006:101.

2. Li Xing, “Some Observations On New Changes of International Order and Chinese Countermeasures” (J),No.11 2009 , p.29

3. Erwin Stelzer, “Obama is Unmatched to the Chinese” (N), (English), December 19, 2010.

4. On the American Policy towards Russia. Т. А. Шаклеина，Россия и США в мировой политике［Z］Москва，2012.

5. Dai Bingguo, “Adhere to the Road of Peaceful Development”, (EB/OL), Chinese Foreign Ministry website, December 7, 2010.

6. Li Xing, Kong Rui, “Russian Factors in the Sino-U.S. Relations”, (J), 2010 (5).

7. Li Xing, Niu Yichen, “Why the SCO is Inadequate to Support the Chinese Northwest Security Strategy”, (J),, No.4, 2013.