An analysis on ecological civilization construction in Gansu based on a quantified SWOT framework

LiLi Li, HongLang Xiao, SongBing Zou, Juan Ren

1. Key Laboratory of Eco-Hydrology and River Basin Science, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China

2 .Gansu’s Economy Research Institute, Lanzhou, Gansu 730046, China

3. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

An analysis on ecological civilization construction in Gansu based on a quantified SWOT framework

LiLi Li1,2,3, HongLang Xiao1*, SongBing Zou1, Juan Ren1

1. Key Laboratory of Eco-Hydrology and River Basin Science, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China

2 .Gansu’s Economy Research Institute, Lanzhou, Gansu 730046, China

3. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Ecological civilization (EC) construction has become one of the key elements of China’s reform and development process, since it was put forward at the 17th National People’s Congress (NPC) in 2007 and improved at the 18th NPC in 2012, and stressed at the third plenary session of the 18th NPC. The provincial areas are the most important pilot units of EC strategy. Therefore, research on EC at the provincial level can meet the practical demand for EC in China. Based on the existing provincial circumstances in Gansu and its significant position as an ecological barrier in northwestern China, and aiming at the core issue of why and how to build EC in Gansu, this paper employs SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats) analysis, the Delphi method, and a combined quantitative analysis and coordinate method, and then calculates the relevant strategic orientation angle (θ= 1.4605) and strength coefficient (ρ= 0.53). The results show that Gansu should take an opportunities-dominated strategy, and choose opportunity-strength measures, so the province can increase its internal strengths and decrease its weaknesses with external opportunities. Specific measures are recommended to actively promote an EC construction strategy.

SWOT analysis; ecological civilization construction; strategy research; Gansu Province

1 Introduction

The combination of ecological civilization (EC) construction and regional social and economic development has produced a large number of domestic and foreign academic and practical research cases. The main research focus of regional EC construction in foreign countries is ecological modernization (EM), first proposed in the early 1980s by the German scholar Joseph Huber; its most obvious characteristic is its marriage of the modernization and ecological theories (Murphy, 2000). The background of EM is the limited ability of traditional environmental policies in industrialized countries to govern environmental problems; EM proves a policy framework and technology guide for comprehensive economic development and EC construction (Gouldson and Murphy, 1996). During the 1980s and 1990s, EM was adopted in only a few pioneer countries, including Sweden (Thomas and Brien, 2013), Germany, Britain, and Holland, and was then extended to the other European countries, the United States, Australia, and other countries. Its research fields range from geography to ecology and the social sciences (Murphy, 2000). In the process of understandingand interpreting how to deal with the environmental crisis in modern industrial society, EM has gradually become the dominant theory of environmental social science (He and Wu, 2001). Its core idea is to balance economic development and environmental governance to achieve the dual goals of national and regional sustainable development (Lundqvist, 2000). There is an internal consistency with the idea of the EM and EC in China that they have the dual goals to balance the economic growth and environmental governance so as to achieve regional sustainable development, and the EC strategy has been implementing in the different provincial units in China.

Ecological civilization construction is the most significant measure of the strengthening ability of provincial units to develop sustainably, and has become of widespread concern in China in recent years. It is based on the theories of ecological modernization, circular economy, and sustainable development, combined with the policies of Ecological City, Ecological County, and Ecological Township (Village); its core concept is to build capacity for sustainable development within provincial units in China (Bian and He, 2003). Since the first EC pilot program in Hainan Province in 1999, 14 provinces have been designated as Ecological Provinces, such as Jilin, Heilongjiang, and Fujian (Huang, 2012). In 2003, the Chinese Environmental Protection Ministry put forward the basic conditions for the construction of an "ecological province," and after 10 years of practical experimentation, produced a standard of regional ecological construction that addresses planning, organizing, and supervising, and formed the initial pilot system of "Ecological Province, Eco-County, and Eco-Village." In 2007, the concept of "ecological civilization" was introduced at the 17th National People’s Congress (NPC), and was raised to the national strategy level at the 18th NPC in 2012.

Since 1990, the number of academic research cases about EC has increased sharply. According to Internet search results from CNKI, after 2007 the literature on EC exploded from 308 in 2006 to 3,910 in 2013. However, compared with EC research status, case studies about how to construct EC at the provincial level are relatively rare. Only a few provinces (Hainan, Yunnan, and Shandong) have proposed policy guides on EC construction (Zhou, 2010), but there is no cases of empirical research on the construction of provincial EC.

The position of "Ecological-Security Barrier" in the northwest area and an "Ecological Civilization Province" has raised Gansu’s ecological function to the national level and also pointed out the direction of local development. The Gansu government is now drafting an ecological platform, one of three strategic platforms in the "3341 Projects," mainly aimed at building a national ecological barrier and ecological compensation pilot area (Niu, 2012). This indicates that the target of constructing EC in Gansu is gradually changing from the theoretical level to the practical stage.

This paper employs the extensive application of SWOT (strengths, weakness, opportunity, threat) strategy from China and abroad, combined with the Delphi method, SWOT quantitative results and polar coordinate analyses, and studies on EC construction in Gansu Province, so as to attract more homologous research in this field and also provide some theoretical references for local departments in Gansu.

2 The research design method

SWOT analysis is a commonly used method for studying strategic planning and decision making. It was first proposed in 1971 by K.R. Andrews from the Harvard Business School in the United States (Ni and Wu, 2001). This method combines four factors: internal strengths (S), weaknesses (W), external opportunities (O), and threats (T) of an enterprise or a region (Kumar, 2005), and can derive regional development strategies by matching SWOT factors. Early on, the method was applied in research on strategic management of enterprises, and then was gradually extended to industrial group analysis (Ouyang and Wu, 2006), the development of regional industry groups (Du, 2010), city management (Doratliet al., 2004), and finally regional and national development strategy (Ghazinoory and Huisingh, 2006). Historically, the SWOT analysis method was based on qualitative analysis, which reflects strong subjectivity and other limitations compared to quantitative analysis (Huang and Jiang, 2009), so some scholars have attempted to improve SWOT analysis techniques. For instance, the Delphi method (Wang and Gan, 1995), the analytic hierarchy process (Kurttilaet al., 2000), polar coordinate tools, the four-and-a-half dimensional coordinates (Huang and Li, 2008), and other mathematical methods have been applied to SWOT analysis.

This paper starts with qualitative analysis but adds an expert-scoring method combined with quantized analytical results and the polar coordinate method, to calculate the strategic type angle and strategic strength, and obtain the strategic type and measures of EC construction in Gansu. This analysis process is shown in figure 1.

3 Results of SWOT analysis

3.1 Selecting qualitatively affective factors

3.1.1 Strengths

1) National ecological functions. Gansu is locatedin the upper reaches of the Yellow River, the Yangtze River, and four inland rivers, and it is the essential water recharge district of these rivers. Four hundred and thirty-three kilometers of the Yellow River go through the Gannan district in Gansu, which recharges 10.81 billion m3water to that river, accounting for 58.7% and 18.6% of the total runoff from the source area and annual runoff, respectively (Shiet al., 2010). In addition, Gansu injects 4 billion m3annually to the upstream of the Yangtze River (ADB, 2009). However, the Hexi Corridor area, which comprises 60% of the Gansu land area, is one of the major sandstorm sources in China (Quet al., 2002). Desert land area is 194.72 million ha in Gansu, and the human population of the desert area accounts for 44.3% of Gansu’s total population (Zhanget al., 1998). Given its special ecological function, Gansu is an origin area riverhead or sandstorm in China, which makes it a possible "ecological security barrier area" at the national level. Therefore, determining how to build this barrier is indispensable for EC construction in Gansu.

2) Circular economy pilot province at national level. In 2009, the State Council formally approved the policy "Gansu Overall Planning Circular Economy," making Gansu the first breakthrough province that puts a circular economy strategy into practice. As a Circular Economy Pilot province, Gansu’s major industrial sectors, involving metallurgy, nonferrous metals, coal, electric power, petrochemicals, building materials, and other heavy industries, will be given 167 key recycling projects which will support the transformation of Gansu’s traditional heavy industrial structure, and also EC construction in the province.

3) Policy direction of EC construction in Gansu. The goal of EC construction in Gansu Province is to position Gansu to build sustainable capacity at the national level. This is part of the Gansu local government’s decision to implement the "3341" project, which involves three major strategic platforms (economy, culture and ecology), the latter of which is "to create the national ecological barrier construction and compensation pilot area as the focus of the ecological strategy platform" (Jiang, 2013). The goal of EC construction is to gradually attract wide attention from local and national departments to provide the overall policy background on EC strategy implementation.

Figure 1 The process of SWOT analysis

4) The accumulation of EC construction technology in Gansu. Since the 1990s, a series of ecological projects were started in Gansu Province, such as returning farmland to forestry, the restoration of protective natural vegetation, ecological conservation of local water sources (Heihe, Yellow, and Shiyang rivers), and the vital ecological restoration of the hilly-gully region of the Loess Plateau. After the implementation of these major projects, the accumulation of advanced ecological technologies and experiences in the field will provide technical information and support for EC construction in Gansu.

3.1.2 Weaknesses

1) Ecological deterioration has not been effectively curbed. Gansu has a typical arid and semi-arid climate, having 30-500 mm average annual rainfall whichprovides water resources of about 656.5 m3per capita, lower than the national average level (Shiet al., 2008). According to the Fragile Index of the provincial main ecological functional regions, 58 of the 81 counties in Gansu have intermediate or high ecological vulnerability (Zhanget al., 2013), and the overall deterioration of the ecological system has not yet been reversed. This disadvantage will be the principal challenge for EC construction in Gansu.

2) The conflict between traditional industry development and EC construction. Gansu has a typical resource-based industrial structure, and its economic growth mainly depends on expansion of traditional industries, most of them being energy and raw-material industries. In 2011, the proportions of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries were 6.86:58.51:34.63 in Gansu (Gansu Statistics Bureau, 2013). The output value of six pillar sectors among the second-tier industries (nonferrous metals, electric power, petrochemicals, iron and steel machinery, and the food industry) accounted for more than 80% of the total industrial scale (Gansu Statistics Bureau, 2013). The industrial system is dominated by heavy industry, which has high energy consumption and causes severe pollution. In 2011, the amount of metal pollutants in wastewater from the Gansu industrial sectors, such as lead (6,884.83 kg), mercury (72.47 kg), chromium (4,672.33 kg), and arsenic (5,735.65 kg), were the highest among the five northwestern provinces in China (Zhanget al., 2013). The internal contradiction between the goals of increased industrial production and ecological sustainability becomes an important disadvantage in EC construction.

3) The lack of an operable policy for EC construction. The severe ecological problems in Gansu have attracted much attention, but there have not yet been issued an operable policy for matching its ecological functions and problems. Since the 1990s, local departments have issued 7 integrated EC construction policies and 8 special environmental protection regulations, but there is no national-level guidance on how to build ecological barriers and EC construction. However, Hainan, Jilin, Heilongjiang, and 14 other provinces in China have issued normative supporting policies that guide the development of an Ecological Province. Therefore, Gansu must address the lack of a supporting policy for building an ecological barrier, an important aspect of EC.

4) No fixed fund for EC construction. Based on Gansu’s budget plan in 2013, the expenditures for education, culture, health, and other projects concerning people’s livelihood account for 76% of the total provincial financial outlay (Zhang, 2013), and the remaining funds are used to support agriculture and promote industrial transformation (Sunet al., 2013). Due to the locality’s limited financial ability, central-government funds are focused on "farm, farmer, and rural issues" and payments for the people’s livelihood program. Therefore, Gansu has no fixed budget for EC construction, which presents yet another challenge to the program.

3.1.3 Opportunities

1) Popularization of EC. Ecological civilization first appeared in the philosophy and ecology fields in China in 1980 (Sunet al., 2013). In 2012, the report of the 18thNPC introduced it as a national strategy. Thereafter, many official departments and non-governmental organizations embraced EC. Since 2008, China has launched three initiatives (amounting to 52 pilot programs) to implement EC construction. Ecological civilization is spreading more and more widely in practice in the different regions, and is becoming the driving force in the ability of different provinces to achieve sustainable development. Having a fragile ecology, Gansu presents a great opportunity for becoming an EC Province.

2) External support for National Circular Economy Pilot programs. Within its scheme of National Circular Economy Pilot programs, in 2012 the Chinese State Council allocated 4 million Yuan to support Gansu in building 7 cities, 40 industrial parks, and 116 enterprises to start circular economy projects. Also, the future supporting fund will allocate funds for basic construction of infrastructure, transportation, water conservancy, environmental protection, social welfare, and other public welfare projects, and will encourage the projects to promote energy-saving technology. Such measures will be important external opportunities for implementation of EC construction in Gansu.

3) Demonstration of EC and Ecological Province construction. Early in 2000, China put forward directives for Ecological Province, Eco-City, and Eco-County construction. From January to October of 2013, two phases amounting to 72 EC pilots were launched by the Chinese government; the first phase was 18 pilots, the second was 54 (Yang and Li, 2005). Also, a total of 389 national Ecological Pilots (EPs) have been implemented; both EC pilots and EPs are policy guidance to enhance sustainable development in the different regions. Thus, Gansu has been given a clear direction in how to construct an EC Province, and can benefit from the practical experiences in other provinces.

3.1.4 Threats

1) Threat from extensive ecological degradation inNorthwest China. The ecological problems of Northwest China include drought, soil erosion, land desertification, and expansion of desert and Gobi areas, and such ecological risks are more prominent in Gansu. The soil and water loss in Shaanxi, Gansu, Ningxia, Qinghai, and Xinjiang provinces affect 67%, 85%, 75%, 46.3%, and 58%, respectively, of the total land area (Yang and Li, 2005). Gansu has acute ecological problems, and the wide range of ecological impacts has become the major threat to EC construction in the provincial unit.

2) Limitation of provincial financial conditions, no support funds from national level. Gansu is a less developed province in China. The region’s GDP and total financial revenue ranks the last fifth of 31 provincial units in 2011 (National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2013). Both the fragile ecological system and social poverty are closely related in Gansu; poor counties have a 53.49% probability of being ecologically vulnerable, and 42.59% of the province’s ecologically fragile counties are low-income counties (Zhao and Liu, 1996). In view of the above challenges, it is extremely difficult for Gansu to become an EC Province without state support and a local special financial fund, which also makes it difficult to meet the national demand for building ecological barriers.

3) Threats from industrial transfers in China. Regional industrial transfers are an important way to achieve coordinated regional development. Industrial sectors are the leading economic elements in Gansu, even though they are basically in the lower level of the regional industrial gradient in China. This gives Gansu a precious opportunity to participate in the Eastern Regions industrial transfer. According to the sector directory issued by local departments, the 16 major categories of industries appropriate for industrial transfer mainly involve petrochemicals, nonferrous metals, metallurgy, building materials, and other heavy industries. However, these industries mainly rely on local resource advantages; they have high energy consumption and cause serious pollution, which can undermine local ecological environments. Gansu is thus in the dilemma of desiring economic growth but needing environmental protection. Given the extensive poverty in Gansu, the region will inevitably choose the influx of more of such industries, which will worsen the fragile ecological environment conditions and draw the province even further from its goal of EC construction.

3.2 Quantitative analysis

3.2.1 Designing questionnaire and experts’ scoring

In order to qualitatively analyze the selected SWOT factors, we designed a questionnaire table with 14 factors (Table 1), and each factor needed a scoring value from different anonymous experts. We selected 42 experts (30 in Gansu, 12 from other provinces) who were researchers or staff from research or administrative departments involved with ecology, EC construction research, and Gansu environment management fields. The questionnaires were completed by field and on-line interviews, and the 14 factors were scored as follows: Each factor could have a maximum of 10 points; the Strengths and the Opportunities had positive values, and the Weaknesses and Threats had negative values. The absolute value indicated the impact strength. According to the rules of statistical sampling, a total of 42 questionnaires were distributed and 40 valid questionnaires were recovered, yielding an efficiency of 95%. The average values of the respondents’scoring, and the weight and the final score of each factor, are given in table 1.

Table 1 Experts’ questionnaire and score statistics of the SWOT factors

3.2.2 Calculating impact strengths of the factors

The results were as follows:

1) The total strength intensity:

S=∑Si/4=0.4829. Theifactors’ strengthSi= average weight value × score.

2) The total weakness intensity:

W=∑Wj/4=?0.4762. Thejfactors’ strengthWj= average weight value × score.

3) The total opportunity intensity:

O=∑Ok/3=0.5621. Thekfactors’ strengthOk= average weight value × score.

4) The total threat intensity:

T=∑Tl/3=?0.5018. Thelfactors’ strengthTl= average weight value × score.

3.2.3 Establishing the strategic quadrilateral

The analysis frame of four half-shaft coordinates locates theS1,O1,W1, andT1corresponding points on theS,W,O, andTshafts, and then connects the four points and obtains the strategy quadrilateral, namely, the SWOT strategic quadrilateral (Figure 2).

Figure 2 Quadrilateral of the SWOT strategic factors

3.2.4 Choosing the strategic type and strength

1) Meaning of strategic orientation angle θ and its calculation

Defined the barycentric coordinatesP(χ,y), and the quadrilateralsS1O1W1T1,P(χ,y) are given by the formula:

whereχiandyiare the coordinates ofS1,O1,W1, andT1on the strategic quadrilateral coordinates (Figure 2).

By the formula: tgθ=y/χ(0<θ<2π), the strategic type azimuth angle (θ) can be derived, and by the inverse function, theθsize can be determined as well as its location in the quadrant, leading to its corresponding strategic type given in table 2.

According to the above formula, for Gansu Province,P(χ,y)=(0.0017, 0.0151), tgθ=9.0322,θ=1.4605 (approximately 83.68°), and thePpoint is located in the first quadrant, π/4<θ<π/2, and belongs to the opportunity-prominent strategy within the pioneering strategic zone.

2) Meaning of strategic strength coefficient (ρ) and its calculation

The same strategy type, can explore active or conservative strategy according toρvalue, so it is necessary to calculate the strategic-strength value. It is vital to determine the strategic strength for considering whether it is positive or negative type. The positive strategy is the combination of the external opportunities and the internal strengths; its calculation formula is:

The external opportunities and internal strengths can, in a certain sense, be transformed into each other.

Similarly, strategic negative strength is the combination of the external threats and the internal weakness factors, and weaknesses and threats can be transformed into each other. Its calculation formula is:

Therefore,ρcan be calculated by the following formula:

The coefficientρreflects the weight of the strength of the implemented strategy, and the judgment of choosing the strategic strength is basing on theρvalue (ρ∈[0, 1]). With an increase of theVvalue, theρvalue decreases; it shows the strategic strength. An increasedVvalue reduces the strategic strength coefficient, showing that the strategic strength is weakened. Takingρ=0.5 as the threshold value, whenρ>0.5 an exploiting strategy should be adopted; whenρ<0.5 a conservative strategy should be adopted. Our calculations indicate that, for Gansu Province:U=0.2714,V=0.2390,ρ=0.5318>0.5.

3.3 Positioning strategy and selecting the strategic intensity

From the above analysis, the orientation of Gansu Province’s strategy of EC construction is located in the first quadrant and within the (π/4, π/2) zone, which makes it an opportunity strategy in the pioneering strategic zone. At the same time, according toρ=0.5318>0.5, the strategic strength should call for positive measures to implement the strategy. Based on these qualitative and quantitative SWOT results, strategic positioning of EC construction in Gansu Province should be an opportunity-prominent strategy.

Table 2 Corresponding relation of strategic azimuth and strategic styles

4 Conclusions

4.1 Choosing the strategy

According to our calculation results (θ=1.4605, approximately 83.68°;ρ=0.5318>0.5), we judge the type of EC strategy in Gansu as an opportunity-prominent strategy in the pioneering strategy zone. The opportunities are the dominant factors affecting EC construction in Gansu Province; with the aid of external opportunities, the internal strengths can have a positive effect and, furthermore, the internal weakness can decrease at the same time, so the core measures should be from the opportunity-strength strategy. This result accords with Gansu’s ecological status and economic position in China, and also shows that in Gansu, an underdeveloped province, the external opportunities are a significant factor in realizing the EC construction goal.

4.2 The elements of the strategy

First, it is necessary to more deeply study models of EC construction, stressing the regional natural and social conditions in Gansu. Second, the fact that Gansu is the first national recycling pilot province will promote resource-saving and environmentally sustainable industries, and gradually achieve the transformation of traditional heavy industries, forming the foundation for EC construction in Gansu. Finally, as Gansu integrates the existing accumulation of EC construction knowledge and technology, EC construction will be further promoted in the province.

5 Recommendations

Based on the above conclusions, Gansu should consider the following measures in order to launch and carry out the EC plan in the entire province.

5.1 Building a national ecological barrier zone

Gansu is an important ecological barrier area of Northwest China, but there are no matching directives or policies supporting this function, making it difficult to meet the national need for an ecological barrier. At the same time, Gansu Province is underdeveloped and has weak local financial resources, which results in a series of problems due to lack of funding and technical support. We therefore propose that Gansu should frame a policy for an ecological barrier in Northwest China based on existing policies, which will be coincident with not only its existing ecological function, but also the local goal of EC construction.

5.2 Establishing Gansu’s overall plan of the EC construction

Any official plans are representative of the social consensus, providing practical action guidance in some areas or fields, and they are also the legal basis for the government to perform its responsibilities and to intervene in economic and social activities (Yang, 2010). Given the lack of an EC construction policy in Gansu, it is imperative to create an overall plan and make it a vehicle for national support. At the same time, it is necessary for Gansu to seek and benefit from other provinces’ EC construction experiences and explore the way to accomplish them.

5.3 Based on the circular economy mode, developing "two-oriented industries"

The core of a circular economy is changing the linear mode of high-input, high-output typical of traditional economies that have high energy consumption and harmful pollution patterns. Gansu has a traditional industrial system and acute ecological restrictions, so it is inevitable that it turns to EC construction as the basis for transforming its industrialization and urbanization, so as to realize the local goal of "leap-over" development. By virtue of the national Circular Economy Pilot Provinces projects, Gansu has a great opportunity to change its traditional industrial mode and develop "resources-saving, environment-protection" types of industries ("two-oriented industries"), which can form the industrial foundation for EC construction.

5.4 Planning major long-term projects, striving for national investment

A variety of technical information on EC construction has accumulated in Gansu, but there is a lack of systematic integration technology. Experience andinformation acquired the planning and implementation of major ecological projects, such as the Hexi Corridor Eco-Economy Zone project, water supply and ecological protection projects on the upper reaches of the Yellow River where it passes through Gansu, and the major ecological protection projects at the crossing zone of the Yellow River and the Yangtze River in Tianshui City, can provide key support for EC construction throughout Gansu Province. Major EC construction projects such as these can garner national policy attention and financial support, and can lead to widespread EC construction in Gansu.

Acknowledgments:

This paper was supported by the program Research on Interactive Mechanism of Effect on Watershed Ecological Policy of the Cultural Change and Ecological Evolution in River Basin Areas, Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. 91125007).

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10.3724/SP.J.1226.2014.00607.

Received: April 14, 2014 Accepted: July 11, 2014

*Correspondence to: HongLang Xiao, Professor of Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences. No. 320, West Donggang Road, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China. Tel: +86-931-4967154; E-mail: xhl@lzb.ac.cn