The Iron Ore Market in the Sino—Brazilian Trade

ANELISE REZENDE DE MORAES

【Abstract】China has required a large quantity of commodities in order to keep with its economic growth path， driven by large exports， rapid urbanization and investment in fixed assets. Commodities exporter countries have benefited from Chinas immense“hunger”for commodities， especially during the 2000s. Brazil， for instance， has emerged in this scenario as one of the largest iron ore producers and exporters. However， the cooling down of the Chinese economy has brought doubts to the iron ore industry， which may remain strong in near future but one cannot claim for certain whether or not this trend will remain this positive in the long run.

【Key words】Economic growth；International trade；Investments；Iiron ore；Brazil；China、

0.Introduction

It is widely known that Brazil has experienced a significant economic performance over the last decade. Most analysts and academics pointed out the strong Chinese demand for commodities as one of the main reasons to explain this fact. Some of them also defend the idea that Chinas economic growth has been mainly driven by large exports， rapid urbanization and investment in fixed assets. Therefore， Chinas “hunger” for mining commodities has been huge and， consequently， has contributed to elevate these commodities prices in the world market. However， Chinese government has officially affirmed the intention of rebalancing the countrys GDP composition， diminishing the share of investments and increasing the share of consumption. Fewer investments in fixed assets may lower demand for mining and metal commodities by China dropping， thus， these commodities prices and bringing uncertainties to countries which have comparative advantage in natural resources， such as Brazil.

In this sense， some relevant aspects of the Sino-Brazilian iron ore trade will be discussed in this article， which is divided into four parts besides this introduction. The first section will briefly present some of the main sources of Chinas economic growth and its increasing demand for metal and mining commodities. In the second section， some aspects of Brazil as an important world iron ore producer and exporter will be presented. The third section will introduce the Sino-Brazilian iron ore trade evolution in terms of price and volume from 2000 to 2012. In the last section， conclusions and reflections concerning the ideas discussed will be made.

1.Sources of Chinas economic growth in brief： export-led growth， rapid urbanization and investment

Many economic theorists defend the idea that Chinas economic growth is explained by its exports expansion due to the economic policies adopted during Chinas open policy period which， initially， aimed the industrialization process by encouraging the exports of labor intensive goods.However， some of these theorists did not make the linkage between exports and investments.（KWAN A.C.C et al.1999：68）In this sense， as Yu（2010：25）affirmed exports act only as a catalyst to boost Chinese economic development path. Investment， as Figure 1 shows， is the source which most contributed to Chinas economic growth. In 2010， it reached 48 percent of the total GDP.

Figure 1- China GDP： Contributions to Growth （2000-2011） （in percentage points）

Source：IMF Working Paper. Investment-Led Growth in China： Global Spillovers AHUJA， Ashvin and NABAR， Malhar （2012：03）.

Investments were boosted up by rapid urbanization and infrastructure. During the reform， there was a significant migration of the population from rural to urban areas， as a consequence of the policy measures adopted， which encouraged the labor-intensive industry. As a result， there was a huge demand for workers in the cities. Thus， the demand for habitation and infrastructure increased and， consequently， contributed for the expansion of the civil construction sector.Before 1978， about 80 percent of the Chinese population was living in rural areas. In 2011， it was stated that 50 percent was living in urban area and it is expected that the urbanization rate reaches 70 percent by 2030. （CHINA DAILY， 2012）.

In order to keep with the economic growth strategy， mainly based on investments in infrastructure， industrialization and urbanization， China has required a huge demand for minerals. Figure 2， for instance， shows the Chinese total demand for iron ore and its concentrates， considering its total annual import and output volumes. In this sense， China emerges as the largest iron ore importer. In 2011， its total imports accounted for 61 percent of the total global share， followed by Japan and South Korea. （UNCTAD apud Government of Western Australia 2012） Thus， such significant demand of iron ore brings opportunities to countries with comparative advantages in natural resources-intensive， such as Brazil.

Figure 2 - Chinas Total Demand of Iron Ore and Concentrates （2001-2011）

Source：Graphic elaborated by the author based on the China Statistical Yearbook various years and China Steel Association.

2.Brazil as an iron ore producer and exporter

Brazil ranks the second place in iron ore world reserves. Its reserves accounted for 29 billion tons in 2011. It is also the third largest iron ore producer， having accounted for 390 million tons in 2011， followed by China（1，33billion tons） and Australia（480million tons）.（UNCTAD apud Government of Western Australia 2012）.

The iron ore from Brazilian mines are well known for its quality， measured by high concentration of iron in its composition. The hematite ore， which is mainly found in Pará State and Itabiro ore， in Minas Gerais State，have 60 percent and 50 percent of iron in their compositions， respectively. In contrast， iron ore from China contains only averagely between 30-35percent of iron in its composition.

In regards to exports， according to UNCTAD apud Government of Western Australia（2012）， the total amount of world iron ore sales accounted for 1，155million tons in 2011.Australia and Brazil are the first and second largest iron ore exporter countries，respectively，having reached two thirds of total global exports in that year.

Brazilian total exports evolution are illustrated by Figures 3 and 4. It can be noticed that there was a crucial increase of Brazilian exports in terms of weight and price from 2004 until 2008 due to the growing global demand which was mainly boosted， as already mentioned， by Chinas huge demand for iron ore and its concentrates. In 2009， one year after the World Crisis 2008， it can be noticed a decrease. Nevertheless， in the following years， this rate sharply increased again in terms of value and volume from 2010 to 2011.（IBRAM 2012）.

Figure 3 - Brazilian total exports of iron ore and concentrates （2004-2011） （year x average FOB price）

Source： MDIC（2012）Brazilian Ministry of Development， Industry and International Trade apud IBRAM （Brazilian Institute of Minerals）（2012）.

Figure 4 - Brazilian total exports of iron ore and concentrates （year x weight in million tons）

Source： MDIC（2012）Brazilian Ministry of Development， Industry and International Trade apud IBRAM（Brazilian Institute of Minerals）（2012）.

3.Iron Ore and Concentrates in the Sino-Brazilian trade

Brazil has benefited from Chinas immense demand for iron ore， which is mainly used in infrastructure， construction， fixed investment assets and steel production. China is Brazils main importer of iron ore and concentrates， having accounted for more than 45 percent of the total Brazilian exports in 2012.（IBRAM 2012） Figure 5 illustrates the evolution of Brazilian exports of this commodity to China， which increased in terms of value from 2001 until 2011.

In 2012，however， a decrease of almost 25 percent can be noticed in value compared to the previous year due to the cooling down of the Chinese economy in some periods of that year， which dropped the price of iron ore.According to a report issued by CEBC（Brazil-China Enterprise Council），in the beginning of 2012，the commodity was negotiated at USD 136，00. In September， the price dropped and reached US$ 99，00 and it increased again in the last quarter of the year， reaching the average of US$128，00 in December. Such recovery in prices brings positive perspectives for 2013.

However，it can be said that this huge drop may be a “sign” of the current Chinese intention of slowing down the economy， through rebalancing the sources of economic growth and being less focused on investments in contrast to consumption.

Figure 5 - Brazilian total exports of iron ore and concentrates to China （in million USD）

Source： Data from MDIC（2012） Brazilian Ministry of Development， Industry and International Trade

Graphic elaborated by the author

4.Conclusion and perspectives

This article aimed to emphasize the connection between investments， as the major source of the Chinese economic growth and the countrys huge demand for iron ore and its concentrates. In this scenario， China and Brazil emerge as the largest importer and second largest exporter of iron ore and its concentrates. The good quality of the Brazilian iron ore and its large reserves made it an important trade partner to China.

The strong demand for Chinese iron ore contributed to elevate the prices of this commodity in the world market. However， since China has the intention of changing the composition of its GDP， decreasing the share of investments，experts in commodities think that the “commodities boom” is over.As Yu（2010：25） pointed out， it is believed that Chinas demand for commodities in general will continue to be high in the near future， especially due to the fact it is expected that urbanization rate continue to grow and the population income double by 2020.

However， one cannot claim for certain whether or not this trend will remain this positive in the long run. Major infrastructure and housing projects in China should be concluded by that time， which will lead to a gradual decrease of the growth rate of investments and， consequently， to a lower demand for commodities.

【References】

[1]AHUJA，Ashvin；NABAR，Malhar（2012）Investment-Led Growth in China：Global Spillovers International Monetary Fund.

[2]CEBC-Brazil China Enterprise Council.Comércio Bilateral in China Brazil，Edition 6-March 2013.

[3]CHINA DAILY（2012）Urbanization to engine China's economy.Available on：http：//www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2012-02/15/content_14615760.htm.Accessed on 04/01/2013.

[4]IBRAM（2012）e análIses da economIa mineral Brasileira.Edition 7-2012.12.

[5]GOVERNMENT OF WESTERN AUSTRALIA（2012）.Western Australia Iron Ore

Profile.Article available on：http：//www.dsd.wa.gov.au/documents/Fact_Sheet_Western

_Australia_Iron_Ore_November_2012.pdf.Accessed on：April 1st，2013.

[6]YU，Yongzhen.（2010） Identifying the Linkages Between Major Mining Commodity Prices and Chinas Economic Growth—Implications for Latin America. International Monetary Fund.

[7]KWAN A.C.C et al（1999）.Fixed investment and economic growth in China.1999，p.68.