美元貶值帶來(lái)的恐慌

張坤奇

The weather may be cold and wet, but in the rich worlds financial markets it is beginning to feel like August all over again. Credit spreads have widened and shares are pitching from gloom to elation as investors look to the Federal Reserve for solace. The anxiety is unmistakable. But this time the scare is about more than bad mortgage loans and their baleful effect on the credit markets. America may be falling into recession. And a new fear now stalks the markets: that the dollars slide could spin out of control.

A full-blown dollar crisis on top of a credit crunch and a weakening economy would be frightening. It would send financial markets reeling and tie the hands of the Fed, perhaps forcing it to raise interest rates even as recession looms. The sky-high euro would soar further, choking off Europes growth. Political tensions would also rise. Already Airbus has called the dollars decline “l(fā)ife-threatening” and Frances president, Nicolas Sarkozy, has given warning of “economic war”.

At worst, the shadows could darken further. For half a century the dollar has been the hegemonic currency. A large slice of global trade is counted in dollars. Central banks hold most of their foreign-exchange reserves in dollars, a boon for America that has allowed it to issue debt more cheaply. That dominance has survived dollar slides before, as in the late 1970s and mid-1980s. But now, with the euro as an alternative, the fear is of a sudden shift in the global monetary system, with investors switching quickly from one currency to the other.

So far, this remains only a fear. Although the dollar has been falling at quite a lick，it has seen no chaotic slump, but a slide interspersed, as this week, with brief rallies. Americans expectations of future inflation have not yet risen much. Yields on government bonds have fallen: clearly, investors do not yet expect higher premiums for safe American assets. Whether disaster strikes depends on what exactly is driving the dollar down and on how policymakers react.

天氣可能變得陰冷而潮濕了，但是富國(guó)的金融市場(chǎng)卻又一次感受到了8月般的火熱。因投資者看好美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)，信貸規(guī)模進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)展，股市從死氣沉沉變得喜氣洋洋。然而擔(dān)憂也是明擺著的。這次恐慌不只是有關(guān)不良抵押貸款和它們對(duì)信貸市場(chǎng)的不良影響，而是美國(guó)可能會(huì)進(jìn)入經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退?，F(xiàn)在一種新的恐懼正在市場(chǎng)蔓延，那就是美元貶值可能失控。

在信貸緊縮和經(jīng)濟(jì)疲軟之上爆發(fā)一場(chǎng)全面的美元危機(jī)將是令人膽顫心驚的。它將使金融市場(chǎng)動(dòng)蕩并束縛美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的手腳，也許會(huì)迫使它在經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退迫近時(shí)提高利率。歐元將進(jìn)一步升值，這將制約歐洲的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。政治上的緊張關(guān)系也將加劇。空客公司已經(jīng)把美元貶值稱(chēng)為是“生死攸關(guān)”的事。法國(guó)總統(tǒng)尼古拉·薩科齊已經(jīng)發(fā)出爆發(fā)“經(jīng)濟(jì)戰(zhàn)”的警告。

最糟糕的是陰影將進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大。半個(gè)世紀(jì)以來(lái)，美元在貨幣中一直處于霸主地位。全球很大一部分貿(mào)易是以美元計(jì)價(jià)的。各國(guó)央行的大部分外匯儲(chǔ)備也是美元，這對(duì)美國(guó)來(lái)說(shuō)是個(gè)恩惠，使得它能夠以更低的代價(jià)來(lái)發(fā)行債券。這種統(tǒng)治地位在過(guò)去曾經(jīng)使美元擺脫了下滑，如20世紀(jì)70年代后期和20世紀(jì)80年代中期。 但是，現(xiàn)在有了歐元可供選擇，人們擔(dān)心會(huì)出現(xiàn)全球貨幣體系的突然變動(dòng)，投資者會(huì)從一種貨幣迅速轉(zhuǎn)向另一種貨幣。

到目前為止，這還僅僅是一種恐懼。盡管美元已經(jīng)貶值很多，但還沒(méi)有出現(xiàn)無(wú)序的暴跌，本周在下跌中還有短暫的反彈。美國(guó)人對(duì)進(jìn)一步通貨膨脹的預(yù)期沒(méi)有發(fā)生。政府債券的收益在下降，這清楚地表明投資者還不寄希望從安全的美國(guó)財(cái)產(chǎn)中得到更高的收益。災(zāi)難是否會(huì)襲來(lái)取決于是什么原因促使美元繼續(xù)貶值和政策制定者們做出怎樣的反應(yīng)。