Global Warming and Home Runs全球變暖與全壘打

Darren Incorvaia

Baseball is a popular sport in the US. Now scientists have identified1 one wayhigh temperatures can reward batters2： It can help convert3 a strong hit into ahome run.

棒球是一項在美國非常受歡迎的運動?，F(xiàn)在，科學(xué)家們已經(jīng)確定了高溫可以獎勵擊球手的一種方式：它可以幫助將強擊轉(zhuǎn)化為全壘打。

The sport has seen a recent home-run heyday4， and climate change appears tohave played some role.

這項運動最近迎來了全壘打的全盛時期，氣候變化似乎起到了一定作用。

The idea that global warming might affect home runs comes fromfundamental5 physics： The ideal gas law says that as temperatures rise， the air’sdensity6 will fall. And that will cut air’s resistance7 on the ball.

全球變暖可能影響本壘打的觀點源于基本物理學(xué)：理想氣體定律。隨著溫度的升高，空氣密度會下降。這將減少空氣對球的阻力。

To look for evidence8 of such a climate link to home runs， a research teamtried several ways.

為了尋找這種氣候與全壘打之間聯(lián)系的證據(jù)，一個研究團隊嘗試了幾種方法。

Across more than 100，000 major-league games， the researchers found that forevery rise of 1 degree Celsius in a day’s high temperature， the number of home runsin a game rose by nearly 2 percent.

在超過10 萬場大聯(lián)盟比賽中，研究人員發(fā)現(xiàn)，當(dāng)日最高氣溫每上升1 攝氏度，一場比賽的全壘打數(shù)量就會增加近2%。

The researchers ran game -day temperatures through a computer model forclimate. And it found that warming linked to human activities led to an average of58 more home runs each season from 2010 to 2019.

研究人員通過一個計算機氣候模型計算了比賽日的溫度。結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)，在2010年到2019 年間，與人類活動有關(guān)的變暖導(dǎo)致平均每個賽季多出58 支全壘打。

The team followed up on that analysis9 with a look at more than 220，000individual batted balls.

該團隊隨后對超過22 萬個個人擊球進行了分析。

The researchers compared balls hit in almost exactly the same way but on dayswith different temperatures. They also accounted10 for other factors， such as windspeed and humidity11. This analysis showed a similar increase in home runs pereach degree Celsius rise.

研究人員比較了在不同溫度的日子里以幾乎完全相同的方式擊球的情況。他們還考慮了其他因素，如風(fēng)速和濕度。這項分析顯示，每上升一攝氏度，全壘打數(shù)就會有類似的增長。

Baseball’s future could be quite different still.

棒球的未來可能會大不相同。

Some fans feel that a growing bounty of home runs has made baseball less funto watch. This is at least part of the reason that Major League Baseball announcedseveral new rule changes for the 2023 season.

一些球迷認為，越來越多的全壘打使棒球的觀賞性大打折扣。這至少是美國職業(yè)棒球大聯(lián)盟公布2023 賽季幾項新規(guī)則變化的部分原因。

There are ways teams can adapt12 to rising temperatures. Many could changeday games to night games， when temperatures tend to be cooler. Or they could adddomes13 to stadiums14. Why？ The research group found no effect of outdoortemperature on home runs in games played under a dome.

球隊有辦法適應(yīng)不斷上升的溫度。許多隊伍可能會將日間比賽改為夜間比賽，因為夜晚的溫度往往比較低?；蛘咚麄兛梢栽隗w育場上加上圓屋頂。為什么？研究小組發(fā)現(xiàn)，在圓屋頂下進行的比賽中，室外溫度對全壘打沒有影響。

But climate change may soon prompt even moredramatic changes to America’s pastime. Keep inmind， this sport may be affected by snow， storms，wildfires， flooding and heat. Without real change，baseball， and all sports， are going to see majorchanges in ways that we cannot anticipate15.

但氣候變化可能很快會促使美國的這項消遣運動發(fā)生更戲劇性的變化。請記住，這項運動也許會受到雪、風(fēng)暴、野火、洪水和高溫的影響。如果沒有真正的改變，棒球，以及所有運動都將以我們無法預(yù)料的方式發(fā)生重大變化。

Notes

1. identify 查明；確認；發(fā)現(xiàn)

2. batter 擊球員

3. convert 轉(zhuǎn)變；轉(zhuǎn)換

4. heyday 全盛期

5. fundamental 根本的；基本的

6. density 密度

7. resistance 阻力

8. evidence 根據(jù)；證明

9. analysis 分析

10. account 解釋；說明

11. humidity 潮濕；濕度

12. adapt 適應(yīng)

13. dome 穹頂；圓屋頂

14. stadium 體育場；運動場

15. anticipate 預(yù)期；預(yù)料