The Future of Communication通信的未來(lái)

維夫·埃文斯 韓聰

Future tech and communication

Predicting the future is even thornier when considering human communication. From the perspective of technological innovation， we are living in a digital age： technology is transforming the ways we communicate with one another， and interact with the world around us. Meanwhile， other technological pipe dreams1 that were once only the preserve of science fiction are now becoming reality.

For instance， John Anderton， the character played by Tom Cruise in the 2002 movie Minority Report—originally a short story by Philip K. Dick2—wears a data glove， providing a sophisticated gesture-based interface system. But touch-based computing is now de rigueur3， with the pinch， pull， and swipe features of Apple iPads and iPhones having led the way in the 2000s. In computer gaming， the Wii in 2006， and later， Microsoft Kinect consoles developed similar ways of interacting and controlling virtual characters and actions. Devices such as these are surely but a prelude of what is to come.

MIT computer scientist John Underkoffler predicted， in his 2010 TED talk， that virtual touch-based computing， à la4 Minority Report， is the future of human-computer interfaces5.

Perhaps an even more exciting area of research， one that will transform how we communicate with computers over the longer term， is so-called brain-computer interfaces6. In the 1995 film Johnny Mnemonic—a cyberpunk7 action thriller， based on the short story by William Gibson8—the protagonist， played by Keanu Reeves， wears a cybernetic brain implant that stores information that can be extracted.

Todays research on brain-computer interfaces works on a related idea： the brain makes use of electrical signals—an electrical code—to transmit and process information. The idea is that as the brain runs on electrical signals， and assuming these can be accurately read， then the signals should allow us to communicate with external devices via the transmission of electrical impulses directly from the brain. For instance， it should be possible， at least in theory， to harness the brain signals that move your arm and hand to control a robotic arm to， say， pick up a cup of coffee.

Research of this kind is ongoing. Cochlear implants， allowing the hard of hearing9 to hear， are currently the most widely available use for this technology. The principle enables brain signals to communicate with the implant， thereby overcoming the damaged part of the ear. In the future， it may be possible for implants in the brain to allow us to communicate directly with and control a wide array of devices， using the power of thought alone， as advocated by Elon Musks Neuralink project， which proposes embedding microchips into the human brain.

Computers and smartphones now come with fixed cameras as standard. This means that we can see the person we are talking to， in real time. The next step， perhaps， is the so-called telepresence10 robot. These are mobile units that host a camera and speaker that can be controlled remotely by someone whose voice and image can be projected. And the virtual person can not only see， via their remote camera， but also follow around and otherwise interact with the person with whom they are conversing. The scope for teleconferencing， and ‘remote tours of a specific venue， such as visiting a real-estate proposition， a new factory， or a construction site， are obvious.

Immediacy and reach： The transformational nature of digital modes of communication

It is doubtless true that the digital age has transformed the nature of human communication. Nowhere is this more evident than in terms of the immediacy and reach afforded by digital forms of communication.

In terms of immediacy， social media updates and instant messaging enable instantaneous communication. Prior to the advent of digital communication technology， communication with those with whom we were not physically co-located required travel， or correspondence via snail mail11.

And in terms of reach， the immediacy of our communications reaches an unprecedented number of people.

The notion of reach is especially striking， as digital technology is transforming the nature of the social networks with whom we can communicate. In analogue communication， a social network can be thought of as having a limit that relates to Dunbars Number12： around 150. This is a cognitive limit to the number of people with whom one can maintain stable social relationships—proposed by Robin Dunbar， who found a correlation between primate brain size and average social group size.

In contrast， in digital communication， our social network is only constrained， in principle， by the number of people who have access to the internet—around 3.2 billion people and counting.

New systems of communication： Emoji

In addition to transforming the nature of our communicative reach， the digital age is also providing opportunities and innovations in terms of new forms and systems of communication. And while the underlying principles of communication remain fundamentally the same， how we communicate is and will continue to be impacted as a consequence.

A salient case in point， in the early part of the 21st century has been the emergence of emoji as a global means of communication. In my book， The Emoji Code， I made the following argument. Technology is not changing the cooperative impulse that underpins communication. Nor is it changing the principles that undergird13 systems of communication. Rather， technology provides new avenues and opportunities; it provides new channels of communication.

But in certain respects， these channels can be impoverished， initially at least， in terms of current systems of communication. Face-to-face spoken interaction is multimodal. It is a fully immersed experience， in which participants communicate using the full panoply of modes， and make use of linguistic， paralinguistic14， kinesic， and visual systems of communication. Patterns of eye gaze and prosody convey different aspects of social meaning that fill out the linguistic meaning.

In contrast， abbreviated textspeak is impoverished in the multimodality stakes. And this is where emoji has come into its own; it has begun to allow digital communication to replicate some of the non-verbal communicative cues available to face-to-face interaction. It is not that emoji represents a step-change15 in communication; rather， and somewhat more prosaically， emoji is providing an inevitable step in plugging a gap in a new channel of communication： the digital.

Without emoji， part of what provides a well-rounded communicative message is missing. And given that textspeak is a visual form of representation， it is inevitable that pictographic representations should help provide some of the paralinguistic and kinesic cues.

Emoji provides a starting point to provide a multimodal system of communication， fit for purpose， in the digital age. We might speculate on how emoji will develop—in the short term， animated， avatar-like emojis might be one way in which textspeak can be further enhanced by multimodal cues. Facial expressions and gestures are what make us who we are： lets see it， and not be afraid of seeing it， in emoji！

Whatever the next stage in the evolution of emoji and， indeed， other emerging systems of digital communication， the driver is， ultimately， the cooperative intelligence that makes us the unparalleled communicators we are. Emoji makes us more effective communicators in our 21st-century world of communication.

未來(lái)科技與通信

就人類(lèi)通信而言，預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)更為棘手。從技術(shù)創(chuàng)新的角度來(lái)看，我們正生活在一個(gè)數(shù)字時(shí)代：技術(shù)正在徹底改變我們彼此交流的方式，以及我們與周?chē)澜缁?dòng)的方式。同時(shí)，其他曾經(jīng)只存在于科幻小說(shuō)中的技術(shù)幻想，如今正在變成現(xiàn)實(shí)。

例如，2002年的電影《少數(shù)派報(bào)告》（其原著是菲利普·K. 迪克的短篇小說(shuō)）中，湯姆·克魯斯扮演的角色約翰·安德頓戴著一副數(shù)據(jù)手套，這副手套提供了一種依靠手勢(shì)的復(fù)雜接口系統(tǒng)。但如今，觸摸式計(jì)算已成為必備功能，蘋(píng)果平板電腦和手機(jī)的捏、拉及滑動(dòng)功能在21世紀(jì)前10年居于領(lǐng)先地位。在電腦游戲領(lǐng)域，2006年的Wii游戲機(jī)，以及后來(lái)的微軟Kinect體感控制器都開(kāi)發(fā)出類(lèi)似方式，控制虛擬角色和動(dòng)作并與之交互。這類(lèi)設(shè)備無(wú)疑只是未來(lái)發(fā)展的前奏。

麻省理工學(xué)院的計(jì)算機(jī)科學(xué)家約翰·昂德科夫勒在其2010年的TED演講中預(yù)言，類(lèi)似《少數(shù)派報(bào)告》中的虛擬觸摸式計(jì)算是人機(jī)接口的未來(lái)。

或許還有一個(gè)更令人興奮的研究領(lǐng)域，從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來(lái)看將完全改變我們與計(jì)算機(jī)的通信方式，那就是所謂的腦機(jī)接口。1995年的電影《非常特務(wù)》是一部賽博朋克動(dòng)作驚悚片，改編自威廉·吉布森的短篇小說(shuō)，其中，基努·里維斯扮演的主角戴著一個(gè)控制大腦的植入物，可提取的信息儲(chǔ)存其中。

如今對(duì)腦機(jī)接口的研究基于一個(gè)相關(guān)想法：大腦利用電信號(hào)（一種電代碼）傳輸和處理信息。這個(gè)想法就是，由于大腦依靠電信號(hào)運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)，假設(shè)這些信號(hào)可被準(zhǔn)確讀取，那么這些信號(hào)會(huì)讓我們通過(guò)直接從大腦傳輸電脈沖與外部設(shè)備通信。例如，至少在理論上，應(yīng)該有可能利用移動(dòng)手臂和手的大腦信號(hào)來(lái)控制機(jī)械臂，比如說(shuō)，拿起一杯咖啡。

這類(lèi)研究在持續(xù)進(jìn)行中。讓有聽(tīng)力障礙的人聽(tīng)得見(jiàn)的人工耳蝸是這項(xiàng)技術(shù)目前最廣泛的應(yīng)用。該原理讓大腦信號(hào)可與植入物通信，從而解決耳朵受損部位的問(wèn)題。埃隆·馬斯克的神經(jīng)鏈接項(xiàng)目提議將微芯片植入人腦，未來(lái)，就像該項(xiàng)目所提倡的那樣，腦內(nèi)植入物可能讓我們只需使用思維的力量，就能直接與大量設(shè)備通信并控制這些設(shè)備。

現(xiàn)在，固定攝像頭是計(jì)算機(jī)和智能手機(jī)標(biāo)配。這意味著可以實(shí)時(shí)看到正和我們說(shuō)話(huà)的人。下一步，也許就是所謂的遠(yuǎn)程呈現(xiàn)機(jī)器人。這是帶有攝像頭和揚(yáng)聲器的移動(dòng)裝置，能夠由某人投射語(yǔ)音和圖像遠(yuǎn)程控制。利用這些移動(dòng)裝置的遠(yuǎn)程攝像頭，虛擬人不僅可以看到與之交談的人，還可以跟隨對(duì)方并進(jìn)行互動(dòng)。進(jìn)行視頻電話(huà)會(huì)議，“遠(yuǎn)程”參觀特定場(chǎng)所，例如考察房地產(chǎn)規(guī)劃、參觀新工廠或建筑工地，可施展的余地顯而易見(jiàn)。

即時(shí)性和可及性：數(shù)字通信模式的變革本質(zhì)

毫無(wú)疑問(wèn)，數(shù)字時(shí)代已經(jīng)全然改變了人類(lèi)通信的本質(zhì)。這一點(diǎn)在數(shù)字通信形式帶來(lái)的即時(shí)性和可及性上體現(xiàn)得最為明顯。

在即時(shí)性上，社交媒體快訊和即時(shí)信息讓即時(shí)通信成為可能。在數(shù)字通信技術(shù)出現(xiàn)之前，與不在一處的人交流需要長(zhǎng)途奔波，或通過(guò)蝸牛郵件聯(lián)系。

在可及性上，我們的通信即時(shí)性可及人數(shù)前所未有。

數(shù)字技術(shù)正在徹底改變我們與之通信的社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)的本質(zhì)，所以可及性觀念尤其引人注目。在模擬通信中，可以認(rèn)為一個(gè)社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)的極限與鄧巴數(shù)字有關(guān)：大約150人。這是由羅賓·鄧巴提出的一個(gè)認(rèn)知極限，即一個(gè)人可以與多少人維持穩(wěn)定社會(huì)關(guān)系。鄧巴發(fā)現(xiàn)靈長(zhǎng)類(lèi)動(dòng)物的大腦尺寸與平均社群規(guī)模之間有相關(guān)性。

相比之下，在數(shù)字通信中，我們的社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)原則上只受到可訪(fǎng)問(wèn)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)人數(shù)的限制——大約32億人，數(shù)字還在不斷增加。

新的通信系統(tǒng)：表情符號(hào)

除了完全改變我們通信可及性的本質(zhì)之外，數(shù)字時(shí)代還在新的通信形式和系統(tǒng)方面提供了契機(jī)和創(chuàng)新。雖然通信的基礎(chǔ)原則基本保持不變，但我們的交流方式正在并將繼續(xù)受到影響。

舉個(gè)突出的例子，21世紀(jì)早期，表情符號(hào)作為一種全球性通信方式出現(xiàn)。我在《表情符號(hào)代碼》一書(shū)中，提出了以下論點(diǎn)：技術(shù)并不改變構(gòu)成通信基礎(chǔ)的合作沖動(dòng)，也不改變支撐通信系統(tǒng)的原則;相反，技術(shù)提供了新的途徑和機(jī)會(huì)、新的通信渠道。

但在某些方面，就當(dāng)前通信系統(tǒng)而言，這些渠道至少在一開(kāi)始可能單調(diào)貧乏。面對(duì)面的口頭交流是多模態(tài)的。那是一種完全沉浸式的體驗(yàn)，參與者使用各種各樣的方式進(jìn)行交流，并利用語(yǔ)言、副語(yǔ)言、身勢(shì)和視覺(jué)交流系統(tǒng)。視線(xiàn)和韻律的模式傳達(dá)不同方面的社交意義，補(bǔ)全了語(yǔ)言意義。

相比之下，論及多模態(tài)，短信縮略語(yǔ)顯得單調(diào)貧乏。這就是表情符號(hào)的用武之地;表情符號(hào)已經(jīng)開(kāi)始讓數(shù)字通信得以復(fù)制面對(duì)面交流中的一些非語(yǔ)言交際提示。并不是說(shuō)表情符號(hào)代表通信的巨變;相反，更通俗點(diǎn)兒說(shuō)，表情符號(hào)必然是在填補(bǔ)新型通信渠道的一個(gè)缺口：數(shù)字缺口。

沒(méi)有表情符號(hào)，就無(wú)法提供全面的交際信息。鑒于短信用語(yǔ)是一種視覺(jué)表現(xiàn)形式，繪畫(huà)文字表現(xiàn)形式必將有助于提供一些副語(yǔ)言和身勢(shì)提示。

表情符號(hào)為適用于數(shù)字時(shí)代的多模態(tài)通信系統(tǒng)開(kāi)辟了起點(diǎn)。我們可以推測(cè)表情符號(hào)將如何發(fā)展——在短期內(nèi)，類(lèi)似于頭像的動(dòng)畫(huà)表情符號(hào)可能通過(guò)多模態(tài)提示進(jìn)一步豐富短信語(yǔ)言。面部表情和手勢(shì)讓我們展現(xiàn)自己：讓我們?cè)诒砬榉?hào)中看到自己，不怕看到自己！

事實(shí)上，無(wú)論表情符號(hào)以及其他新興數(shù)字通信系統(tǒng)的下一個(gè)發(fā)展階段如何，最終驅(qū)動(dòng)力都是合作智慧，它讓我們成為絕佳的交際者。在21世紀(jì)的通信世界中，表情符號(hào)讓我們的溝通更有效。

（譯者為“《英語(yǔ)世界》杯”翻譯大賽獲獎(jiǎng)?wù)?單位：新鄉(xiāng)市第十六中學(xué)）