Abstracts

03TheOPEC+MechanismandEnergyGameAmongRussia,SaudiArabiaandtheU.S.

AbstractIt is generally believed that OPEC+ mechanism is the product of Russia and Saudi Arabia preventing the continuous downturn of international oil price and increasing their control over the oil market since the U.S. ‘Shale Revolution’. This paper argues that the return of the United States to the international oil arena as a major oil producer and the ‘multiplier effect’ of its energy power are the main factors that trigger the establishment of the OPEC+ mechanism, through which Russia and Saudi Arabia regained control of the oil market, and laid a foundation for further bilateral cooperation, thus the two countries can largely offset the increasingly unfavorable geopolitical environment since the ‘Shale Revolution’. In response, the U.S., while improving its oil production capacity, tried to divide OPEC+ through political means. Finally, Russia’s withdrawal from OPEC+ mechanism and the outbreak of a new oil price war show that as the number of major oil producers increases, the interaction and conflict in this energy game inevitably increases. Saudi Arabia will have more strategic choices in the new tripolar oil supply system. Its strategic choices will become a key factor in shaping the international energy landscape.

KeyWordsOPEC+ Mechanism; Russia; Saudi Arabia; U.S.; Energy Game

AuthorCAO Fengyu, Ph.D., Lecturer, Institute of Middle Eastern Studies, Northwest University.

23TheChangingWorldPetroleumSystemandOilPower:OntheUS-Saudi-AramcoTriangle

AbstractThe world oil system is mainly composed of three types of actors: consumer countries, oil-producing countries and international oil companies. These actors constitute a unique triangular relationship, which is a structural feature of the world oil system. The core of the world petroleum system is oil power, which can be further divided into six sub-powers: resource (supply) power, market (demand) power, transportation (channel) power, pricing power, technology and management power, and financial power. What overrides oil power is the national security in which energy security is included. Since the WWII the changes in the world oil system have mainly revolved around national security and struggles among the six sub-powers. All the three actors have key means of influencing the world oil market. Their power at different stages determines the structural changes in the triangular relationship. The typical case has been the structural shift in the triangle of the U.S., Saudi Arabia and Aramco since the WWII. In recent years, the ‘Shale Revolution’ led by the U.S., the OPEC+ mechanism formed by Saudi Arabia and Russia, oil sanctions and anti-sanctions have foretold a new round of changes in the global oil system and oil power.

KeyWordsWorld Oil System; Oil Politics; Oil Power; Structural Power; Aramco

AuthorLU Ruquan, Director of the Comprehensive Division of the International Department of China National Petroleum Corporation, Senior Economist, Ph.D. Candidate of China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations.

43WesternCountries’ ‘PeacefulEvolutionPolicy’TowardsEgyptandItsImplications

AbstractFor a long time, Western countries headed by the U.S. have implemented ‘peaceful evolution’ policy towards Egypt to weaken this country. Western countries guided Egypt to pursue a new liberalist policy and made its economy depend on the West increasingly. They induce Egypt to take the road of ‘democratization’ and weaken its political system, and further infiltrate and control the Egyptian army and soften its military strength from inside. This ‘peaceful evolution’ policy has made Egypt weaker and poorer and led to the outbreak of the ‘January 25 Revolution’ finally. It is deserved to point out that the ‘January 25 Revolution’ is directly related to the long-term infiltration of the United States through NGOs and the active incitement in public protests. In a sense, it is a ‘colour revolution’. However, ‘colour revolution’ is not a real social revolution. The ‘January 25 Revolution’ not only has not improve Egypt’s situation, but also makes Egypt plunged into turmoil and its political and economic situation entered the worst period in the past sixty years.

KeyWordsWestern Countries; Egypt; ‘Peaceful Evolution’; ‘Colour Revolution’; ‘Arab Spring’

AuthorTIAN Wenlin, Ph.D., Professor, China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations.

63‘ColourRevolution’inCommonwealthofIndependentStates:DifferencesofInteractionBetweentheOppositionandtheGovernment

AbstractIn the first wave of international protests of the ‘colour revolution’, which mainly affected countries of Commonwealth of Independent States at the beginning of the 21st century, the opposition in these states mobilized the masses through personnel, organization and discourse, encouraging the masses to participate in anti-government movements. Due to the different resources under their control, the mobilization capacity of the oppositions varies from country to country. When the opposition has a strong mobilization capacity, if the government is weak and incompetent in dealing with it, the ‘colour revolution’ can easily succeed as the cases in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan. Due to the split of the ruling clique, the defection of security forces and the mistakes of the leaders, the three governments were unable to cope with the mobilization of the opposition, which ultimately led to the change of regime. However, when the opposition is weak in mobilization and the government is tough and efficient in response, the ‘colour revolution’ will easily fail. Countries such as Kazakhstan, Belarus, Azerbaijan fall into this category. Whether the ‘colour revolution’ occurs in the Commonwealth of Independent States is not the cause of the opposition or the government, it is affected by the interaction between the two.

KeyWords‘Colour Revolution’; Resource Mobilization Theory; Com￣mon￣we￣al￣th of Independent States; Mobilization Capacity

AuthorsZENG Xianghong, Ph.D., Professor, Institute for Central Asian Studies and School of Politics and International Relations, Lanzhou University; LIAN Xiaoqian, Graduate Student, School of Politics and International Relations, Lanzhou University.

85AnUndervaluedAlly:Egypt’sContributionstotheAnti-FascistWar

AbstractThe North Africa-Mediterranean battlefield was one of the key battlefields in the World Anti-Fascist War, and Egypt played a crucial role in this war. Egypt made significant contributions to the World Anti-Fascist Union in strategic, political, military and economic aspects. In terms of strategy, Egypt played the role of British overseas military capital, Cairo was the strategic coordination center, supply center and the aviation hub for the Allies in the Middle East. In terms of politics, Egypt broke diplomatic relations with the Axis powers firstly, took a firm position to engaging in the war, created a stable domestic political environment, joined the World Anti-Fascist Union and supported the establishment of the United Nations. In the military aspect, the Egyptian army participated in the homeland defense, assisted the British army against Rommel, defended the Suez Canal, and facilitated the transit of 500,000 Allied troops. In terms of economy, Egypt provided strong support in the fields of materials, manpower, transportation, finance, science and technology, medical care. Egypt’s contributions not only laid the foundations for victory of the anti-Fascist war in the North Africa-Mediterranean battlefield, but laid the cornerstone of Egypt’s post-war national independence and its power in the Middle East as well.

KeyWordsEgypt; Anti-Fascist War; Strategic Contribution; Political Contributions; Military Contributions

AuthorsHU Dekun, Professor, China Institute of Boundary and Ocean Studies, School of History, Wuhan University; CAO Zhanwei, Ph.D. Candidate, School of History, Wuhan University.

102DevelopmentTransformationofArabCountriesfromthePerspectiveofthe2030AgendaforSustainableDevelopment

AbstractFor a long time, Arab countries have accumulated serious ‘development deficit’ and ‘governance deficit’, and have fallen into the paradox of ‘growth without development’, facing outstanding economic, social, security and sustainable development transformation challenges. Energy sector is a key area with a systemic impact for development transition of Arab countries. The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development provides a guiding framework and new opportunities for Arab countries to achieve development transformation, and is conducive to promoting the transformation of economic structures beyond energy dependence, the reconstruction of social order focusing on people’s livelihood issues, and the exploration of national governance paths led by sustainable development. According to the goals system of the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, Arab countries should truly embrace the comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable development ideas, establish a development mechanism that is conducive to economic transformation, social inclusion and environmental sustainability, and promote governance capabilities for sustainable development. Thus Arab countries need to set priority development agendas in the three major areas of economy, society and environment according to their own development conditions.

KeyWordsUnited Nations Development Agenda; 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development; Arab Countries; Development Transformation

AuthorZOU Zhiqiang, Ph.D., Associate Professor, Middle East Studies Institute, Shanghai International Studies University.

123IslamicExtremism:ACriminology-SociologicalAnalysis

AbstractFrom the perspective of sociology of crime, this paper puts forward an ‘integrated analysis framework’, and argues that the evolution of Islamic extremism needs to go through three stages: individual extremism, organizational mobilization and opportunity utilization. The progressive transformation among them theoretically depends on the interaction of five elements: pressure, social organization, interactive learning, organizational mobilization and opportunity utilization. This theoretical framework improves the analytical and operational shortcomings of the existing research concepts, and makes up for the lack of these concepts in explaining a complete evolution of Islamic extremism. At the same time, its emphasis on ‘restoring the function of community support and restraint’, highlights on ‘resolving ideological/institutional con￣tra￣dic￣tions’ and on the analysis of the role of the state in the above work can also provide enlightenment and reference for the relevant countries to counter Islamic extremism.

KeyWordsIslamic Extremism; Sociology of Crime; Integration Theory; Mechanism Analysis; Governance Countermeasures

AuthorGUI Xiaowei, Ph.D., Associate Professor, School of Sociology, Wuhan University.

140RussianJewishImmigrantsinIsrael:StatusandInfluence

AbstractThere are more than 1.1 million Russian Jewish immigrants in Israel, this group accounts for about 15% of Israel’s total population and constitutes the largest immigrant group in Israel. By forming political parties, Russian Jewish immigrants participate actively in political activities and become a critical minority affecting Israeli politics. They play roles of intellectual and human resources promoting the high-tech development and innovative economic growth. But in cultural and social affairs, they always keep a certain distance from the mainstream, or the European Jews, which made Russian Jewish immigrants in a sub-cultural zone. From time to time, they even violate Jewish teachings. Their arrival strengthens Israel’s Jewish identity. Being vanguard in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict for lands and water, Russian Jewish immigrants support the right-wing bloc and rightist policies, thus sometimes promote regional tensions. Through the link of this group, the relationship between Russia and Israel has made great progress in recent years.

KeyWordsRussian Jewish Immigrants; Yisrael Beiteinu; Innovative Economy; Russian-Israeli Relationship

AuthorZHANG Xinxin, Ph.D. Candidate, University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.