泰國：抗疫與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展如何平衡？

新型冠狀病毒肺炎的爆發(fā)再次向人們證明了“健康是無價之寶”。疫情之下，泰國政府采取了一系列措施來遏制病毒蔓延，但同時這也讓許多人陷入財富流失、工資減少的困境。

在控制和減輕疫情影響方面，泰國表現(xiàn)良好。自2020年4月27日起，新增病例數(shù)量增幅并不明顯，甚至有幾天無新增病例。約96%的感染者已完全康復(fù)，死亡率小于2%。

在采取公共衛(wèi)生措施的同時，泰國政府還通過向人民提供貸款和財政援助來應(yīng)對經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險。一些觀察家的比喻恰如其分：如果經(jīng)濟(jì)是一個急需氧氣的病人，那么政府注入的現(xiàn)金流就像陳舊房間里的新鮮空氣。

迄今為止，泰國已批準(zhǔn)了3個階段的經(jīng)濟(jì)救濟(jì)措施，以滿足企業(yè)家、藍(lán)領(lǐng)階層和家庭的需要，確保社會的每一個弱勢群體，無論是以收入、援助還是貸款的形式，都能獲得收入來源。政府的首要原則是保持資金流動性，讓現(xiàn)金留在人民手中。3個階段的經(jīng)濟(jì)救濟(jì)目的分別是減輕公共開支負(fù)擔(dān)、增加收入、保持經(jīng)濟(jì)引擎的潤滑和運轉(zhuǎn)。

在減輕開支負(fù)擔(dān)方面，所有家庭的水電費減免3個月。個人和企業(yè)所得稅的申報和繳納期限已經(jīng)延長。預(yù)扣稅率在6個月內(nèi)從3%降至1.5%。居住和農(nóng)業(yè)用途的國家財產(chǎn)租賃費免收1年。此外，金融機(jī)構(gòu)也將推遲客戶支付汽車、摩托車和住房貸款。

而想要增加人民收入并非易事，因為所有的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長引擎都近乎癱瘓。政府已經(jīng)成為市場上最后一個“大手筆”者，它正在利用一切可能的渠道和機(jī)制確保救濟(jì)惠及每個人。例如，下崗的非正式工人可以在3個月內(nèi)領(lǐng)取5000泰銖的補貼，而在社會保障基金登記的工人可以在長達(dá)200天的時間里領(lǐng)取工資的70%。一項400億泰銖貸款計劃將確保有資格獲得1萬泰銖緊急貸款的人，每月僅需承擔(dān)0.1%的利率。同時，中小企業(yè)可以向政府儲蓄銀行和中小企業(yè)銀行申請低息貸款。政府還批準(zhǔn)了一項1500億泰銖的預(yù)算，用于向1000萬注冊農(nóng)民發(fā)放每人1.5萬泰銖。

在維持經(jīng)濟(jì)部門方面，泰國銀行主動向金融機(jī)構(gòu)提供5000億泰銖的軟貸款，以便它們能夠向某些中小企業(yè)提供貸款。另外還撥款1萬億泰銖，用于振興農(nóng)業(yè)、旅游業(yè)等各個部門。此外，泰國還投資人力資源，為他們提供必要的技能培訓(xùn)，如為導(dǎo)游提供語言培訓(xùn)，為企業(yè)家提供企業(yè)管理培訓(xùn)等。

最重要的是，自2020年5月3日以來，基于疫情防治現(xiàn)狀，政府分階段逐步放寬了某些限制，復(fù)蘇企業(yè)。首批恢復(fù)服務(wù)的機(jī)構(gòu)包括餐館、小吃攤、街頭攤販、市場、發(fā)廊、醫(yī)療設(shè)施和高爾夫球場。隨后，購物中心和大型企業(yè)也允許重新開業(yè)。然而，這并不意味著泰國防治疫情的斗爭已經(jīng)結(jié)束。相反，還有很長的路要走。

泰國疫情防控狀況似乎態(tài)勢良好，但要復(fù)蘇經(jīng)濟(jì)實則困難重重。專家預(yù)測，泰國和世界各地經(jīng)濟(jì)年增長率不容樂觀。盡管如此，所有部門都在利用疫情期間生產(chǎn)“暫?！钡臋C(jī)會，為后疫情時代重啟經(jīng)濟(jì)做必要的準(zhǔn)備。

多年來，泰國一直在規(guī)劃未來，致力于成為一個創(chuàng)新能力強、可持續(xù)發(fā)展的國家?，F(xiàn)如今，疫情恰巧成為這一規(guī)劃的加速器：在沒有游客的情況下，泰國通過開發(fā)基于技術(shù)的解決方案以及擴(kuò)大電子商務(wù)應(yīng)用來提高旅游服務(wù)質(zhì)量。泰國國內(nèi)的自然公園和國家公園進(jìn)入“休整期”，恢復(fù)到了原始狀態(tài)。曼谷廊曼國際機(jī)場正在進(jìn)行翻修。考慮到社交距離的需要，泰國旅游局也把目光轉(zhuǎn)向小型旅游群體，注重質(zhì)量，強調(diào)健康旅游。

泰國的經(jīng)濟(jì)活動需要像其他國家一樣，更多地轉(zhuǎn)移到線上。傳統(tǒng)的商業(yè)形態(tài)正在被“新常態(tài)”重新定義。經(jīng)銷商們紛紛搭上電子商務(wù)列車，希望自己的產(chǎn)品銷量走俏，扛過疫情。會議、商業(yè)活動甚至貿(mào)易展覽都在線上進(jìn)行。甚至農(nóng)民和企業(yè)家也在接受培訓(xùn)，提高自身的線上素養(yǎng)和技能，以便進(jìn)入不斷繁榮的電子商務(wù)市場。

此外，在研究和技術(shù)方面，泰國作出的努力更大，尤其是在創(chuàng)新醫(yī)療解決方案領(lǐng)域。如今，泰國有了輔助機(jī)器人和遠(yuǎn)程醫(yī)療，幫助醫(yī)生和護(hù)士遠(yuǎn)程照顧病人。

所有這些，都將提振泰國經(jīng)濟(jì)，就像1997年發(fā)生亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)時，泰國采取措施應(yīng)對重創(chuàng)一樣。當(dāng)時，普密蓬·阿杜德國王陛下提出“充足經(jīng)濟(jì)”哲學(xué)理論，鼓勵在合理和適度的基礎(chǔ)上采取更加平衡的發(fā)展方法。現(xiàn)在是時候重新探討這一理念，來保護(hù)泰國未來免受外部沖擊。

在國家恢復(fù)常態(tài)和國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)重獲發(fā)展勢頭之前，復(fù)蘇經(jīng)濟(jì)任重道遠(yuǎn)。但只要保持初心，世界經(jīng)濟(jì)就可以復(fù)蘇，并擁有更強的適應(yīng)力和團(tuán)結(jié)意識。

·來源：泰國外交部

·編譯：陳志瑩

Vietnam is struggling with alarming air pollution. Its two biggest cities， Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City， are now among the top 15 polluted cities in Southeast Asia.

Fine particulate matter （PM2.5） is the most concerning air pollutant in Vietnam. In 2019， Hanoi had only 8 days with PM2.5 lower than the national standard of 50 micrograms per cubic metre （?g/m3）. The air quality in Ho Chi Minh City was not much better， with only 36 days below the standar.d. For the remaining days of the year， over ten million people in these cities were exposed to heavily polluted air.

Finer particles are particularly harmful to human health as they can penetrate deep into the lungs and cardiovascular system， causing diseases including stroke， heart disease， lung cancer， chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases and respiratory infections. Up to 60，000 deaths in Vietnam in 2016 were related to air pollution. On average， air quality being below the World Health Organizations standard reduces life expectancy by one year and costs the country about 5% of GDP per year.

Second， policies promoting the use of greener vehicles could reduce air pollution. Phasing out obsolete and polluting vehicles could be encouraged by providing subsidies for trading in old cars， paid for by higher taxes on new vehicles. This would help address distributional effect concerns， as owners of old vehicles tend to be from lower-income households. The government could also issue enabling policies to promote electric vehicles （EVs）， such as allowing only EVs in downtown areas and an income tax reduction for EV manufacturers to make them more affordable.

Third， pollutant pricing would be appropriate given the polluter pays principle. The environmental protection tax regulation could be revised to better target polluting fuels such as diesel and coal. Carbon pricing would reduce the consumption and production of carbon-based products and promote a low-carbon economy. This would alleviate air pollution and mitigate climate change， which is another threat to Vietnams economic and social security.

Fourth， a smooth and efficient transition to a renewable electricity system would help mitigate air pollution and climate change. Enabling policies such as feed-in tariffs and reverse auctions for solar and wind power would maintain the momentum of a recent boom in solar power that made Vietnam the top country in Southeast Asia for solar power installation. Vietnam could set more ambitious targets for renewable energy， given its high potential for solar， wind and off-river pumped hydropower.

Last， fossil fuel subsidy reform could reduce the use of the dirty fuel and free up the current annual fossil subsidy of US$ 612 million or 0.3% of Vietnams GDP for other welfare activities such as health， education and environmental protection.

It is the perfect time to prioritise these potential measures by revising the Law on Environmental Protection， which is planned to be approved by the National Assembly at the end of 2020. Vietnam has the capacity to turn around its pollution problem through careful regulation.

· Source： East Asia Forum