Develop Highly Reliable and Low-Cost Technology for Access to Space,Embrace the New Space Economy Era

BAO Weimin ,WANG Xiaowei

1 China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation,Beijing 100048 2 China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology,Beijing 100076

Abstract:The worldwide space industry has entered a new space economy era.The question is how to develop in this new era? This paper tries to answer this question from two aspects:highly reliable and low-cost technology for access to space,and the cislunar economic zone.Firstly,the development requirement of the future space transportation system is discussed and the development path to enable high-reliability and a low cost of space transportation system is analyzed.Moreover,the concept of a routine space transportation system is proposed,upon which this paper gives some thoughts to the development of the cislunar economic zone thus embracing the new space economy era.

Key words:access to space,high reliability,low cost,cislunar economic zone,space economy era

1 INTRODUCTION

Currently,the worldwide space industry has entered into a new stage,featuring new-generation global communications satellites,large-scale satellite constellations,large-scale space infrastructure,human lunar exploration and Mars exploration,plus large-scale deep space exploration.With the growing mission requirements,the current space industry has entered into a new space economy era,and the new requirements will improve a space transportation revolution.The era of space transportation revolution is coming as well.

Facing the new space era,the US has been improving its deep space exploration to enable a scalable development of the space economy,and also plans to return to the moon by means of Lunar Orbit Platform -Gateway (LOP-G)and lunar base[1-7],the Artemis project.NASA proposed and studied the concept of the 2050 Cislunar Econosphere[7].United Launch Alliance(ULA)has been promoting the 2046 Cislunar-1000,and plans to construct the Cislunar Econosphere by using products including Vulcan and Advanced Cryogenic Evolved Stage (ACES)[8-10].More than 200 US companies have aimed at the market of cislunar space,mainly focusing on the resource exploitation,on-orbit manufacture and others[10].The European Space Agency (ESA)proposed Space 4.0 and claimed that the moon is the next destination for mankind rather than Mars,and they think human lunar exploration is more realistic than human Mars exploration.Thus,they are participating in the Artemis project,and the Director of ESA has proposed to construct a Moon Village[11]as well.Meanwhile they continue to conduct asteroid explorations.Russia,Japan and India have either been carrying out lunar exploration or participate in the Artemis project.Many nations are participating in the NGO Moon Village Association which registered in Vienna and promotes international cooperation[12].China should take the opportunity and face the challenge of this new era,develop highly reliable and low-cost technology to access to space and promote the development of cislunar space,thus trying to dominate the exploitation and utilization of cislunar space in the future.

2 DEVELOPMENT DEMANDS OF THE FUTURE SPACE TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM

2.1 Strategic Demands to Build a Responsible Space Power

The strategic target of constructing a responsible space power clearly points out the direction and target for China’s space industry.Enhancing the capability of access to space is the basis of all the space activities.Therefore,to study highly reliable and low-cost access to space is to develop a suitable technical path to support the development of a space power.

2.2 Demands of the Human Race,Survival and Development

“Earth is mankind’s cradle,but mankind will not live in the cradle forever.”The development of space science and technology helps to better understand some fundamental issues about the universe and life.This is beneficial to solve the problems for future survival and development of the human race.Viewed from space,the Earth is fragile and lonely,therefore,only mankind is capable of access to space in a highly reliable and lowcost way,thus enabling free access to space and to exploit and utilize space resource.

2.3 To Meet the Mankind’s Growing,Material and Cultural Demands

The history of mankind shows that for each transportation revolution there is an accompanying revolution of life-style and human development.For example,the commercial operation of high-speed trains and planes not only changes the mankind’s mode of transport,but also brings changes to the economy,culture,life-style and ideas,which has a deep impact on each aspect of the society.With the growth of human development,the transportation is further required to possess higher speeds and larger range,e.g.the concept of“one-hour global arrival”has been proposed,and a highly reliable and low-cost space transportation system is the main technique considered to meet this need.

2.4 To Meet the Demands of Embracing the Arrival of the Space Economy Era and Developing the Cislunar Economy

With the arrival of the space economy era,mankind turns to cislunar space,as developing cislunar space can provide more activities in space and provide access to more abundant resources,which can become the new kinetic energy for healthy growth of the national economy,as well as promoting the rapid development of science and technology.In the future,cislunar space is a vital strategic space for mankind’s survival and development,and also the main destination and an outpost for deeper space missions.The International Academy of Astronautic(IAA)study indicated that the scale of access to space will reach 170 thousand tons per year,97% of which focusing on the cislunar space in the middle of this century[13].This concludes that it is necessary to develop the cislunar space on a large-scale basis,which necessitates a highly reliable,low-cost,and routine space transportation system.

3 DEVELOPMENT PATH OF THE HIGHLY RELIABLE AND LOW-COST SPACE TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM

3.1 Highly Reliable and Low-cost Methods

Technically,the methods to improve the reliability and reduce the cost of the space transportation system are analyzed,which are composed of three aspects,including design,experiment and production,as shown in Figure 1 and Figure 2.

The low-cost technologies and high-reliability technologies should be integrated,optimized to reach a highly reliable and low-cost target.A specific detailed study should be undertaken for a specific mission.

The key to meet the requirement for future large-scale access to space is how to greatly reduce the cost of access to space.Reusability is such an important method.Similar to civil aviation,the reusability and routine operation will solve the high-price restrictions caused by the current expendable launch vehicles,and together with a highly reliable design,enable our future highly reliable and low-cost access to space.

Figure 1 Methods to improve reliability of the space transportation system

Figure 2 Methods to reduce the cost of the space transportation system

The design concepts including reusability,intelligence,modularization and standardization will be used in the future space transportation system to greatly reduce the cost and improve the reliability.This will be the technical characteristics of the future routine space transportation system.

To meet the requirement for future highly reliable and lowcost access to space for routine space transportation,there are many basic issues to be settled:reliability and cost theory,extreme service fatigue of materials,power and energy,intelligent control,hypersonic aerodynamics,and multidisciplinary coupling optimization.

Figure 3 The composition,task and characteristics of the routine space transportation system

To enable future highly reliable and low-cost access to space also needs operational management,including encouraging innovative technology development,integrated design and production management,mass production and supply chain management,plus flat management.

Grannonia alone kept her presence of mind, and although both her father and mother implored20 her to fly for her life, she wouldn t move a step, saying, I m certainly not going to fly from the man you have chosen for my husband

3.2 The Routine Space Transportation System Concept

The routine space transportation system is composed of the one-hour global arrival transportation,transportation between Earth and LEO,orbit transfer transportation,featuring high reliability,low cost and of a routine nature,to meet the requirement for space exploration missions in the future for the development of china’s space missions and industry.

4 THE TECHNOLOGY BASE OF CHINA SPACE CAPABILITY AND THE GAP WITH REQUIREMENTS

15 types of Long March series of launch vehicles have been developed in China with a complete carrying capacity of 25 t to LEO and 14 t to GTO.From toxic propellant to green cryogenic propellant,from a tandem structure to a parallel structure,from single-satellite launch to multiple-satellite launch,from satellites to manned spacecraft,from Earth orbit to deep-space orbit,China has the ability to send spacecraft into any space orbit.Moreover,with the development of new-generation launch vehicles,the launch capability and technical level of launch vehicles have reached a new level.

However,it still cannot meet the demands for large-scale and low-cost access to space for the future.Meanwhile,there still exists gaps with the world’s most advanced level.

1)Carrying capacity

US’s Falcon Heavy launch vehicle has reached a LEO payload capacity of 64 t and the Space Launch System planned for launch in 2020 will reach a LEO payload capacity of 70 t.

2)Technology level

Compared with US’s launch vehicles,there is a large technological gap in engine,avionics,structural design and new material application.

With the development of the next-generation launch vehicles,the reliability and the cost of worldwide main launch vehicles have reached a new level.Currently,for SpaceX’s Falcon 9,the launch price per unit mass of payload for LEO has been reduced to below 5000 US dollars,and the price for GTO has been reduced to 10000 US dollars.Compared with this,China’s launch vehicles have no advantages.

5 SOME THOUGHTS OF DEVELOPING THE CISLUNAR ECONOMIC ZONE

5.1 Objective

According to the strategic requirement for a responsible space power,to study a high-reliability and low-cost routine space transportation system,the relevant basic scientific issues and key technologies should be investigated firstly,and then,the high-reliability and low-cost routine space transportation system should be constructed to meet the mission and commercial operational requirements for China’s future main space missions.By the middle of this century,the cislunar economic zone will be constructed to promote the development of the economy,science and technology,and improve the quality of life,thus supporting China as a modern socialist and powerful country,and improve human civilization.

5.2 Composition

The cislunar economy refers to the research and development,manufacture,testing and service activities that mankind creates and provides value and benefits by exploring,developing and utilizing cislunar space resources.The high-reliability and low-cost routine space transportation system is the foundation of the development of cislunar space.

The hardware and software facilities of the cislunar economic zone can be briefly described as“one economic zone,three major SOS,and eleven major systems”.The three major SOS consist of routine cislunar transportation,space resource exploration and exploitation and space infrastructure,as shown in Figure 5.

The main mission domain of the cislunar economic zone includes near-Earth space,lunar gravity space,cislunar transfer space,as well as the extension missions of further deep space,to the comprehensive implementation of space science,space technology,space applications and space development.

Figure 4 The sketch of future cislunar economic zone

Figure 5 The sketch of hardware and software facilities of the cislunar economic zone

5.3 Industry and the Scale of Economy

The cislunar economic zone has abundant resources and application opportunities,which can fully expand the current space economy and meanwhile generate new industries.The cislunar economic zone can be divided into leading industries and extended industries.The leading industries are divided into basic industries,application industries,and development and utilization industries.The leading industries are subdivided into 17 sub-industries.The extended industries are ones derived from leading industries.These industries constitute the basic activities of cislunar economic zone,and then create new industries as part of the construction of the cislunar economic zone and the development of the society.

Figure 7 Industries of the cislunar economic zone

It is estimated that the total output value of the cislunar economic zone per year will reach a scale of about 100 trillion RMB.The development of the cislunar economic zone cannot only generate huge economic benefits by itself,but also drive the development of the terrestrial economy and the marine economy,including the coordinated development of the entire economy systems of the terrestrial economy,the marine economy and the cislunar space economy.It has important realistic meaning.

5.4 Roadmap

For the near future,the key basic scientific issues and key technologies relevant for the routine cislunar space transportation system will be established.The operational management mode,policy and law of the cislunar economic zone will be studied.The space resource exploration and exploitation system and space infrastructure system will be studied and the related key technologies will be developed.The on-orbit construction capability of the cislunar economic zone hardware facilities has been established.

For the mid-term,the routine cislunar space transportation system will be fully constructed.The operational management mode,policy and law of cislunar economy zone will be well developed.The space resource exploration and exploitation system will be basically completed and several space infrastructures will be on-orbit,constructed,distributed and initially operating,to comprehensively form the basic industries for the cislunar economic zone,and several application industries with development and utilization industries,such that the scale of the economy will reach 20 thousand billion RMB.

By the middle of the 21th century,the hardware facilities of the cislunar economic zone will be fully constructed.The policy and laws of operation and management will be complete and the cislunar economic zone will be fully operational.Three main industries will be mature and the industrial chain will be closed,enabling more economic benefits.The scale of the economy will reach 100 trillion RMB,fully promoting the development of national economy,science and technology,and people’s livelihood.

6 CONCLUSIONS

The space industry has entered a new era of large-scale access to space and the cislunar space economy.The“Transportation Revolution Era”is also coming.The current cost of access to space is high.In the future,there must be changes in design concepts to adapt to the demands of future routine flights,lowcost and large-scale access to space.

Reusable space transportation system is an important way to significantly reduce the cost of space transportation.Reusability and routine flight operations like aircraft can fundamentally solve the high-cost problem of using the current expendable launchers.It is an important choice and need to adapt to the new era of space.

Through the technical breakthroughs and development of the high-reliability and low-cost space transportation system,we will take the initiative to go to the cislunar space to meet the new era of the cislunar economy.