從中國制造，到全球供應與萬維互聯(lián)

于蔓

8月，《經(jīng)濟學人》發(fā)表專題報道《全球供應鏈》之三——“愛著中國，離開中國”。在經(jīng)過幾十年的延伸之后，全球供應鏈正在收縮。本文作者對該文進行了點評。

原文概述：

從1990年開始的全球化繁榮時代，托馬斯·弗里德曼等作家傳播的一種思想成了真理：世界變得扁平了。該觀點認為：國界，在采購和制造方面幾乎無關(guān)緊要。

全球化正在變成區(qū)域化。麥肯錫全球研究院（MGI）分析發(fā)現(xiàn)，自全球遭遇金融危機以來，它研究的17個大型行業(yè)中有16個全球價值鏈（GVC）一直處于收縮狀態(tài)。從2007年到2017年，貿(mào)易絕對值繼續(xù)增長，但在此期間，同一批價值鏈的出口從總產(chǎn)出的28.1%下降到22.5%。貿(mào)易強度下降幅度最大的全球價值鏈是那些交易量最大且復雜的，如服裝、汽車和電子產(chǎn)品。正如MGI的蘇珊·倫德（Susan Lund）所解釋的：“更多的生產(chǎn)正在靠近主要的消費市場?！?/p>

中國作為世界工廠的角色開始消退，但令人驚訝的是，這可能并未敲響大陸制造業(yè)的喪鐘。憑借其熟練的勞動力和優(yōu)良的基礎(chǔ)設施，中國仍然是一個優(yōu)秀的制造場所，它在眾多領(lǐng)域仍保持優(yōu)勢。此外，中國中產(chǎn)階級的崛起讓許多公司將生產(chǎn)轉(zhuǎn)向服務于當?shù)厥袌?。因此，跨國公司顯然正在重新考慮西方市場舊的線性采購模式，但未來的道路尚不清楚。不同的行業(yè)會做出不同的選擇。

英文原版：

（有刪減）

Loving China， leaving China

A look at where clothes， cars and computers are made reveals differing patterns of supply fragmentation.

Globalisation is becoming regionalisation. Analysis by MGI finds that the global value chains （GVCs） in 16 of 17 big industries it studied have been contracting since the global financial crisis. Trade continued to grow in absolute terms from 2007 to 2017， but during that period exports in those same value chains declined from 28.1% to 22.5% of gross output. The biggest declines in trade intensity were observed in the most heavily traded and complex GVCs， such as those in clothing， cars and electronics. As MGIs Susan Lund explains， more production is happening in proximity to major consumer markets.

Chinas role as the worlds workshop is starting to fade， but surprisingly this may not sound the death knell for mainland manufacturing. Thanks to its skilled labour force and excellent infrastructure， China remains an outstanding place to make things， hence its continued strength in numerous sectors. Also， the rise of the Chinese middle class has led many firms to redirect production to serve the local market. So MNCs are clearly rethinking the old linear sourcing model for Western markets， but the path forward is unclear. Different industries will make different choices.

The clothing sector is globally footloose； the car industry is coalescing around regional hubs； and the electronics business remains rooted in China （though Mr Trumps attack on Huawei， its technology champion， will affect this）.

Big parts of the clothing and footwear business involve labour-intensive tasks such as stitching， so cost-conscious bosses are always chasing low-cost markets. Many long ago left the mainland， where wages have soared， for SouthEast Asia and Bangladesh. Nike and Adidas make more training shoes in Vietnam than China.

Unlike those cut-rate competitors， say experts， Chinese factories have the specialised machinery and experienced operators that are needed to make seamless fabrics and other higher-value textiles.

Chinas share in big clothes-importing markets such as Japan and Europe has declined since 2010 as they have been buying cheaper clothes made in South-East Asia instead. However， Chinas share in every big textileimport market in Asia has soared because many of those workshops still bought fabrics from the mainland. Its export share into Vietnam， for example， more than doubled to 5o% from 2005 to 2017. The upshot is that although Chinas oncedominant role in this industry has diminished， it remains strong in important niches.

Good night， Shanghai

Car firms have invested heavily to turn Mexico into an export base. The value of its automobile exports has more than doubled since 2010， approaching $50bn last year. The main reasons are not the nearly-defunct North American Free Trade Agreement or lower labour costs， but rather Mexicos four dozen free-trade agreements with other countries which allow it to export to almost half the works market for new cars tariff-free. Carmakers have rejigged supply lines to take advantage. Mexicos car exports to Germany have nearly 40% German components by value， while those crossing its northern border have over 70% American content.

Mr Trumps tariffs on China have pushed Big Autos supply chains to become even more regional. "Were finally ready to leave China." says a senior supply-chain executive at a global car maker. His firm is looking seriously at shifting its sourcing for global market from China to India， but finds Indian vendors "unreliable". It thought about dividing between India and Mexico， but saw that its supply base would lose economies of scale. The winner will be Mexico， he savs.

Innovation nation

Half the worlds electronics-manufacturing capacity is based on the mainland. Its strengths go beyond sheer scale to diversity and sophistication of products. The pace of hardware innovation in Chinas Pearl river delta is unmatched even in Silicon Valley. So， too， is its unique blend of scale and agility. This is why most of the worlds technology giants make their kit in China.

Rising costs led some electronics firms to consider moving out a few years ago. Most notably， Samsung has built a huge smartphonemanufacturing complex in Vietnam.Many firms are discovering that leaving China is not so easy. George Yeo of Kerry Logistics， which has lorries and men all over Asia， has noticed an uptick in clients investing in South-East Asia. Vietnam and Cambodia are the biggest beneficiaries， he reports. But labour productivity is a big problem across the region and infrastructure can be ropey. Much of the investment he sees is going into labour-intensive industries like textiles. In electronics， Mr Yeo thinks the exodus is limited to low-end kit. “Thinks to automation and high value-add， Shenzhen is still king.”

Scrutiny of these three sectors suggests a messy path forward from globalisation. Making this challenge more acute， MNC bosses are now faced with a double threat. Not only must they make supply chains shorter， they must make them faster.

點評正文：

在經(jīng)濟全球化之后，走出中國，全球化挑戰(zhàn)變得更加激烈，新的挑戰(zhàn)是萬維互聯(lián)的新世界，不僅要讓供應鏈更短，還要更快。新的全球供應鏈格局下，中國將如何樹立新的中國影響力？

世界開始扁平化

目前超過50%的地球人口都已聯(lián)網(wǎng)，這距離互聯(lián)網(wǎng)在西方國家首先流行起來的時間不過短短25年。中國互聯(lián)網(wǎng)用戶數(shù)仍在快速增長，全球新用戶大多來自新興市場，以及經(jīng)濟較為貧困落后的地區(qū)。不論是產(chǎn)業(yè)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)還是價值互聯(lián)網(wǎng)，這都意味著互聯(lián)網(wǎng)革命的后半段已經(jīng)開始，世界開始變得扁平化。

互聯(lián)網(wǎng)后半段的發(fā)展，將為國際化企業(yè)帶來巨大的流量與客戶群，也同時帶來全球供應鏈新的格局與新的挑戰(zhàn)。隨著科技發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟效率提升，不僅需要讓供應鏈變得更短，還要更快。

互聯(lián)網(wǎng)信息技術(shù)革命讓全球的通信與信息傳輸變得便捷、廉價又可靠，數(shù)字經(jīng)濟技術(shù)革命即將為全球價值傳輸效率的提升提供新的可能性。自亞洲走進與連接世界經(jīng)濟以來，為全球化經(jīng)濟的高效發(fā)展提供了豐富且低廉的勞動力，科技進展與制造聯(lián)動，推動了全球供應鏈的衍化與革新。

今年6月，國際社交媒體巨頭Facebook推出Libra，這一舉措更是進一步推動了全世界信息互聯(lián)到價值互聯(lián)的演進。馬克·扎克伯格曾說他的夢想就是將世界連接在一起，這不僅是扎克伯格的理想，也是世界全球化進程不可逆的趨勢。Facebook擁有全球龐大的用戶群以及社交行為數(shù)據(jù)，再加之Libra所將帶來的金融行為數(shù)據(jù)，未來可能形成全球最完整的海量用戶數(shù)據(jù)，社交網(wǎng)絡上的每一個節(jié)點也將被更深刻地連接起來。

當互聯(lián)網(wǎng)世界的連接傳播以及運轉(zhuǎn)協(xié)作效率變得越來越高，將會帶來全球供應鏈的優(yōu)勝劣汰，不斷縮短與加速其進程。

中國制造不僅有規(guī)模

眾所周知，世界上大多數(shù)科技公司與技術(shù)巨頭都在中國生產(chǎn)設備以及設立公司，即使是代表世界制造水準的德國，以及科技之都硅谷，都無法比擬中國珠三角等地區(qū)在硬件方面的創(chuàng)新速度。

中國制造業(yè)的崛起結(jié)合西方經(jīng)濟與技術(shù)的發(fā)展，給全球化經(jīng)濟格局帶來了深遠影響。順勢而為的中國是世界諸多科技巨頭的“制造基地”，盡管成本上升導致一些科技公司想從中國遷出另辟蹊徑，但似乎離開中國并沒有那么容易。

當前東南亞地區(qū)的投資數(shù)據(jù)正在不斷飆升，但基礎(chǔ)設施的落后以及勞動生產(chǎn)率的低下仍然是巨大的問題與阻礙。因此，在未來許多年內(nèi)，中國制造的國際位置仍將不可取代，而新的挑戰(zhàn)將是，全球供應鏈體系下的中國，如何部署新的供應鏈戰(zhàn)略為世界新經(jīng)濟秩序的建立帶來中國影響力。

全球供應鏈背景下的中國

一個國家或產(chǎn)業(yè)在全球經(jīng)濟體中的地位，會因該國的資源優(yōu)勢以及進步速度而迅速變化。比如，當中國作為世界科技巨頭的制造基地時，首先發(fā)揮了勞動密集型產(chǎn)業(yè)上的資源優(yōu)勢。而全球的供應鏈體系需要新陳代謝，不斷地提升運轉(zhuǎn)協(xié)作效率，以加劇全球化經(jīng)濟進程。那么中國面臨的挑戰(zhàn)就是，未來在全球經(jīng)濟體中的位置應如何做出相應的改變。

目前的世界工廠已然從以中國為核心的整個東南亞地區(qū)所形成的制造業(yè)集群，變成了新的結(jié)合互聯(lián)網(wǎng)技術(shù)的規(guī)模供應網(wǎng)絡。雖然中國在整個供應鏈網(wǎng)絡中的壓倒性優(yōu)勢使中國始終為核心，但勞動力與成本價格上行，自然會促使許多制造業(yè)企業(yè)向東南亞地區(qū)的轉(zhuǎn)移。某種程度上看，這是一種資源危機，但我們相信中國企業(yè)的創(chuàng)新能力，從中國制造到中國創(chuàng)造，世界貿(mào)易循環(huán)以及經(jīng)濟全球化仍離不開中國影響力。

互聯(lián)互通的時代正在來臨，新的供應鏈格局正在形成。無論是“一帶一路”的國家戰(zhàn)略，還是中國科技、金融、互聯(lián)網(wǎng)企業(yè)的技術(shù)創(chuàng)新與市場化規(guī)模的演進，都預示著中國經(jīng)濟的崛起與轉(zhuǎn)型。在互聯(lián)網(wǎng)后半段，世界工廠已然不是中國定位，創(chuàng)新國家以及引領(lǐng)新的商業(yè)文明將成為新標志。